NCAA Football Free Winning Bowl Picks: December 20-21 and Angelina Jolie and Alba Shows Nip!
We are pumped up to kick off the bowl season. You all know our regular season was not one of our best but we are here to step it up a notch. We are summoning Angelina Jolie’s cans to bring us good luck.
We are sticking with our formulas and adding some new wrinkles this year. Here is the deal…RPJ games are games where Flash and Runny combine their models and the game meets every single one of our tests and criteria for betting. Flash Flash games are game that registered with Flash’s model and did not hit Runny’s radar. Runny Pelvis picks are picks that registered on Runny’s system but did not appear on Flash’s radar. And in a new twist we are introducing the RPJ Math test. The RPJ math test is our way to remove all human elements from the betting game. We ran a statistical regression on the 2008 season and we are using the results to pick games….this is the RPJ Math Test pick! On with the picks….
Saturday, December 21
Navy versus Wake Forest (-3)
RPJ is taking Navy to cover and here is why: Interesting game. Navy already beat Wake Forest this year in a big upset on the road and in a game Skinner threw 4 picks. Navy was up 17 nothing at the half and fought off a furious comeback once Skinner found his way. Here are two interesting stats that we will look at throughout the bowl season: 1) Teams that travel the furthest are 23-37 ATS the last two seasons and 2) Teams playing instate are 12-6 ATS the past two seasons. Why do we bring this up….Navy is essentially playing at home cause the game is at RFK. So they meet the instate and less miles travelled test. We also like the way Navy is playing; they are on a two game win streak, a two game ATS streak and have back to back shutouts. Wake has lost two of three and is 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Navy also has some great ATS numbers: Navy is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on a neutral site, 5-2 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the ACC. As much as we initially thought Wake would not lose back-to-back to Navy, after further review we still like Navy! This line opened at -3.5 for Wake and is bouncing in the -2.5 - -3 range and 65% of the money is on Wake. Trap City!!
RPJ Math Picks Selects Navy to Cover!
Got NIP?
Fresno State versus Colorado State (+3 and OVER/UNDER 60)
Flash Flash is taking Colorado State and here is why: Colorado State wins the travel test and is travelling less miles to get to this game. Freso State is one of the worst cover teams in the United States and has only covered 16.7% of the time this year. Fresno is 2-3 in their last 5 games and has literally only covered once since September 20. In addition, Fresno is coming off a 61-10 drubbing at the hands of Boise State. Colorado State has won two in a row and covered 3 of the last 4 games and they had to win those last two games to become bowl eligible. I know Fresno is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games but this Fresno team is a gambler’s worst nightmare and there is no way in hell I will bet with them, especially a favored Fresno team. To top it off, Fresno is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against Colorado State and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Go Rams! 62% of the money is on Fresno State and this line opened at +4 and is now in the +2.5 - +3 range. Again, that is Trap City!
Runny Pelvis is taking the OVER and here is why: I’ve lost enormous amounts of money on Colorado State and Fresno State. I’m still furious about the Wisconsin game-Flash and I were driving back from the SoCal-OSU game. We were in the desert, drivin’ the C-Note listening to the game on the radio…..I was fuming!!. Colorado State ef’d me more times than I can say as well. I’m taking the OVER because I don’t trust either team. Also, I learned from both teams is that they don’t play a lick of D. Not a lick. Fresno’s QB can move the ball and should be able to do so against a terrible Colorado State D. These teams hate each other and will look to run-up the score. I think they throw-up 70 easy.
RPJ Math Pick is Selecting Colorado State to Cover!
Memphis versus South Florida (-11)
Flash Flash is taking Memphis and here is why: This pick fails the team playing in their home state and the team travelling the farthest tests. I do not think Memphis will win but I think 11 points is too many points in this situation. Memphis has won 3 of 4 and has covered in 3 of those 4 games as well. South Florida has lost 4 of 5 games and has not looked all that good although they have covered two games in a row. This is a dangerous game for South Florida because I am sure this is a bowl game they do not want to be playing in and that is always dangerous. Memphis is a balanced team on offense and rushes for 205.6 yards per game and passes for 226.6 yards per game. I also like that fact that South Florida’s turnover margin is -7. I also like the fact that South Florida is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Memphis plays hard as a big underdog and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as underdogs of 10.5 or more. I think Memphis can keep this game a lot closer than 11 points.
Runny Pelvis is taking South Florida and here is why: S. Florida’s QB and their coach. That is it. They are both money. This game will be in their backyard. Memphis did not play the same level of competion and they will get out played and out coached. S. Florida’s D, although not as good as it was last year, will stiffle Memphis. I think S. Florida wins by 3 TDs.
RPJ Math Pick is Selecting Memphis to Cover!
Had to replay one of our favorites on the year!
BYU at Arizona (-3.5 and Over/Under 59.5)
RPJ is taking Arizona and here is why: We feel like we have seen what this game will be and that is Utah versus BYU. BYU is slow as hell where it matters and can not hang with fast teams. Yes, BYU is physical, but when you cannot keep up, you have no chance. BYU is just like Fresno State, they are cover nightmares for bettors and covered in only 27.3% of their games this season. BYU lost in their last game by 20 points and has only covered once in their last 8 games. Arizona has been competing lately, beating Arizona State and losing close games to Oregon State and Oregon. BYU just does not have a good defense this year and that will be trouble against an Arizona team that puts up 37 points and and 400+ yards of offense per game.Throw in the fact that Zona wins the turnover margin battle and this pick looks better and better. This is the 4th straight year BYU has played in this bowl and that is a major letdown this season. BYU thought it was going to crash the BCS party and that clearly did not happen. Arizona is pumped up and enjoying its first winning season since 1998. We think Arizona runs away with this one!
Runny Pelvis is taking UNDER and here is why: Zona’s D is better than people think and they know they can shutdown Max Hall. This is a ton of points to score. Zona will win this game outright and hold BYU down. BYU showed that when they play on the road against legit D-1 teams, they choke. It will be the same this weekend. Final total will be in the low 50’s.
RPJ Math Pick is Selecting Arizona to Win and Cover!
Sunday, December 21
Troy versus Southern Miss (+4.5 and OVER/UNDER 55)
Runny Pelvis is taking Troy and here is why: This is my favorite game of the weekend. I think Troy destorys S. Miss. Troy pummeled a much better LSU team earlier in the year, only to have a complete meltdown and collapse to lose a close one. They learned from that game. They will not make the same mistake twice. Teams cannot run on them, and S. Miss is starting a freshman QB. Never trust a freshman QB on the road in a big game. Guess what? This game is both for S. Miss. Troy wins by a TD.
RPJ Math Pick Selects Southern Miss to Cover!
Enjoy the picks.
Flash Flash and Runny
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Nothing like losing a push with less than a minute go in the game. Navy coach is an ahole for trying to kick a 48 yard field goal with 38 seconds to go, down by 10, instead of going for the TD. Way to blow a 13 point lead coach. Our horrible string continues.