Week 1 Free NFL picks: Kim Kardashian, Britney Spears and Cheerleaders!
NFL Season is here!!! We are going to take a bit of a different approach this season by running two betting strategies and one knock out pool strategy. First, we will make our RPJ Syndicate picks just like we always do. Second, we will set up a betting vehicle that will simply bet every underdog every week. As ridiculous as this sounds, this has actually been a profitable strategy in the past. Think about it for one second, of the 32 teams in the league, who are actually elite teams out of those 32. We would argue that there are less than 10. So with the parity in the league, bet the underdog. Third, we are going to make our knockout pool picks available this year. What we mean by this, and this is an every growing pool in terms of popularity, we are going to pick one guaranteed winner (spread does not count) each week and then when that team wins we will not be able to pick that team again. Very simply theory and we have actually won cash doing this the last two seasons.
RPJ Syndicate Picks
Titans at Steelers (-6) - These teams hate each other and there is plenty of heat going into this game. The Steelers stomped them last year when it mattered, they return as world champs and have an explosive offense. The Titans wants revenge and can make a staement on opening night in front of the world. There will be some hard hits in this one. The key will be the lack of offense by the Titans and how much they lost on D. The Haynsworth loss is HUGE. The Steelers have lost a lot on O-Line, but they have not lost as much as the Titans. The Steelers will be able to move the ball in this one. They will squeak by for the cover. Take the Steelers and give the points.
Titans
- Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Titans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
- Titans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.
- Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
- Titans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
- Titans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
- Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC.
- Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
- Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
- Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Cowboys at Bucs (+6) - They key to this game is the lack of QB for the Bucs. That is really it. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league. Demarcus Ware is arguably the best defender in the NFL. He is going to have a huge game this week (no matter who plays QB for the Bucs). The Bucs are banged-up at RB. The Boys are healthy on both sides of the ball. Look for a big game from Felix Jones. The Boys will also look to show the world that they don’t need TO. They will run up the score. The Bucs will not be able to stay with them on offense. The Boys roll to an easy cover.
Cowboys
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
- Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Lions at Saints (-13)- The Lions are starting rookie Matthew Stafford…..enough said. They Lions are terrible. They will be even wrose with a rookie QB who was not that great in college. The Saints are explosive. They will crush the Lions. Take the Saints and roll.
Lions
- Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Saints are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
Bears at Packers (-3.5, O/U 46)- The Packers looked like they were in mid-season from during the preseason. Aarons Rogers was on fire!! They host their hated rivals on opening night who are rolling in with a new gunslinger of their own. Cutler looked very comfortable during the preseason. He showed he can move the ball. The Packers are still better on both sides, but both teams should be able to move the ball and score. The weather should be good, too. Take the OVER 46.
Bears
Over is 28-12-1 in Bears last 41 vs. NFC.
Packers
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games in September.
- Over is 9-2 in Packers last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 9-2 in Packers last 11 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 vs. NFC North.
- Over is 10-3 in Packers last 13 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Packers last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Packers last 27 games overall.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Packers last 27 vs. NFC.
The Underdog Strategy
The underdog is the team in bold
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-6)
Miami at Atlanta (-4)
KC at Baltimore (-13)
Philadelphia at Carolina (+1)
Denver at Cincy (-4)
Minnesota at Cleveland (+4)
Jets at Houston (-4.5)
Jacksonville at Indy (-7)
Detroit at New Orleans (-13)
Dallas at Tampa Bay (+6)
San Fran at Arizona (-6.5)
Washington at NY Giants (-6.5)
St. Louis at Seattle (-9)
Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)
Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
San Diego at Oakland (+9)
Knockout Strategy
This is very simple for us. We only pick home favorites and pick extreme home favorites. As dumb and simple as this sounds, it works. This week we were torn between Baltimore and New Orleans but we think New Orleans is the more proven team so our knockout money is on New Orleans!
Enjoy the picks.
Flash Flash and Runny
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Take Georgia Tech -5 tonight. If you can get the better coached team at home on a Thursday night for less than 7 you are gold.
That has my seal of approval.
I’m leaning Titans +7 tonight but am still a little doubtful.
Weekend picks out later. Man the NFL looks tough to predict.