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Archive for October, 2009

NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: Go with the flow: Chicks and Picks part 2!

We were a solid 6-3-1 last weekend and we are now 53-49-2 on the season. We have a ridiculous amount of picks this week. We are excited for all of the freaks that will be out at NCAA games this weekend. Halloween night at Autzen might be the most insane place on earth Saturday night. We can not wait. We are back mentioning our clean sweep strategy. What this means is we have numerous stats that we look at that impacts a team’s ability to control the ball on both sides of the ball. Based on our historical analysis of this aspect of our betting algorithms, these clean sweep games provide tremendous opportunities to win bets.

Friday, October 30, 2009

West Virginia (-3) at South Florida - Love love love kicking off the week with this game. South Florida has come back to earth. For the third consecutive season, an undefeated, nationally ranked USF team has fallen off its perch and into a mid-year skid. West Virginia is winning. Why is this line where it is? This should be a 7-10 point line. This line opened at -3 and has creeped up to -3.5 in some places. Majority of the money is on West Virginia and that has us slightly nervous. We think this is an easy bet to kick off the week. No ATS numbers to speak of but check this out. We have a virtual clean sweep. West Virginia is better rushing the ball, yards per rush, offensive 3rd down conversion percentage, stopping the run (total yards and yards per rush) and defensive 3rd down percentage. We love these types of games. West Virginia wins and covers easily!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Rutgers at UCONN (-7) - UCONN remains the best cover team in the country with a record of 7-0 ATS. Betting can be simple and who are we to say UCONN breaks their streak. When you combine this with the fact that Rutgers is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against UCONN, you start to get excited. Start your Halloween off right and bet UCONN. UCONN wins and covers!!!

Cincinnati (-15) at Syracuse - This game should be haunted house frightening. Cincy is a beast right now and this game meets a lot of our clean sweep requirements. This will make you feel a lot better. Cincy rushes for more yards and at a better yards per rush basis; they control the clock better on offense; are significantly tighter against the run and protect the QB a lot better. Tony Pike is not going to play but Collaros has filled in just fine. We are betting Cincy to win and cover!

Cincinnati

• Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

• Orange are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
• Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
• Orange are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

SMU at Tulsa (-16) - This should be one of the biggest ass kickings of the weekend. SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell got knocked out of last week’s game and remains questionable for this week. The Boise State beating hangover should finally be gone for Tulsa. UTEP took advantage last week. Tulsa plays great at home and Coach Graham’s teams always finish strong. When you look at the stats side by side, this is where it should get ugly for SMU fans. Tulsa rushes for 60 yards more per game, converts third downs 12% better (37% vs. 25%), SMU gives up 175 yards rushing per game (120 for Tulsa) and 4.49 yards per rush. SMU’s defense also gives up third downs 43% of the time (36% for Tulsa). These numbers are ugly. Tulsa dishes out another Golden Hurricane!! Tulsa wins and covers big!

NC State at FSU -8: If you followed us all season, you know we have loved NC State and their QB. You would also know that we like ganing up on FSU and Bobby Bowden. This week, however, we think FSU takes it. The ATS numbers are pretty god for FSU, but that is not why we like them. We like them mosltly because they are playing inspired football ever since Bowden came under fire. We think they will be up for this game and ready to roll. Plus, FSU just has much, much more talent than NC State does. Take the Seminoles and give the points.

Ole Miss at Auburn +4.5: This is a HUGE game for both teams. Both teams need this winn to save some credibility for their seasons and to keep Bowl chances alive. We have always thought both team are overrated. The Rebels have been hit-or-miss all season, and Jevon Snead does not look like the QB he was last year. The edge in this game, despite being on the road, goes to the Rebels. Chizik is not a good coach and Snead can get the win on the road. We love that Vegas is giving Auburn no respect at home. Take the Rebels and give the points.

Georgia (+15) neutral location versus Florida - Does Florida look right to anybody out there? The Florida defense looks good but not dominating. Tim Tebow looks terrible since his concussion. Florida’s offense is not dynamic enough, is relying too much on a not right Tebow and is not focused on getting the ball in the playmakers’ hands. Something is not right with the Gators. Florida is coming off two less than inspiring efforts and Georgia righted the ship last week with a solid and needed win at Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs are still a bit miffed at the Florida coach for calling two timeouts in the final minute of last year’s 49-10 blowout, a ploy that Meyer described — apparently with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek — as merely a way to get a few extra carries for a little-used running back.  The picture of Urban Meyer calling a timeout hangs all over Georgia’s training facility. The Bulldogs get to see it when they’re changing into their uniforms, when they’re lifting weights, when they’re heading off to meetings. Not sure Georgia has the horses to win this game outright but the combination of revenge and Florida sucking of late has on on the side of the Dawgs. We are betting Georgia to cover!

Georgia

• Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Penn State (-17) at Northwestern - This is another clean sweep game and a blatant one at that. Not even worth going into how inferior this Northwestern team is. Penn State is on a roll. 4 straight wins, 4 straight blowout wins and 4 straight covers. Northwestern is spotty at best. 17 points is a lot but expect a better performance than the Michigan performance last week and that was 35-10 on the road. Penn State wins and covers!!

Penn State

• Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
• Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games in October.
• Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
• Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win

• Wildcats are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win.
• Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite

Vanderbilt

• Commodores are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Commodores are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Eastern Michigan at Arkansas -34.5: We are calling this the Bigfoot Bowl becuase it is so very rare that a SEC team schedules an out of conference cupcake team at home, it is like seeing Bigfoot. NOT!! The SEC is comical and the pollsters should be pounding the Razorbacks (and every other SEC team) for these types of games. That said, we know why these games happen and we are going to take advantage and win some scratch for us. Petrino will have no problem running up the score in this game. It will not be close. Take the Razorbacks and give the points.

USC (-4) at Oregon - This is the game of the week and one of the biggest games in the history of Oregon football. The nation will probably not give a crap but consider this…. USC is a top 5 BCS team so a win on the road against a top ten team elevates them against the one loss teams and the no loss teams. If Oregon wins, they will certainly jump into the mix for top 5 BCS standings. We all know that November is a mess for BCS leaders and any upset is possible. Whichever of these teams wins out, if they win out, will have an edge over the Bama/Florida loser if both pay undefeated and will have the edge over every one loss team. Now onto the game, which is what we are here to do. USC is 2-4 straight up in Oregon in their last 6. Forget the spread, Autzen is brutal. If you have never been there you just do not get it. It has the smallest space in all of NCAA football in terms of fans from the field. Fans are literally vertical straight up from the outline of the field. Now add the freak show that is the Eugene Oregon hippies and this is going to be an amazing scene in terms of freaks and noise. Regardless of USC’s record the last few years, they have struggled the last three seasons in the BCS and are only covering 35% of the time. Now we know Barkley won in South Bend and Columbus, but this is another animal. Sorry Golden Homers and Horseshoers, Autzen is a special animal. Mark Sanchez choked there two years ago filling in for the injured Booty. USC contained Dixon but could not make up for Sanchez’s mistakes. We love betting teams we think will win straight up when they are underdogs and Oregon is that animal this week. You know we are USC homers but we love making money as well. Oregon is a no brainer this week. Take Oregon to cover!

USC

• Trojans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

NBA PICKS: DAY 3

Greetings. We stunk-up the joint opening night with a 1-3 effort. However, we were able to take some valuable info from the games. We purposely did not pick games on Day 2 becuase we wanted to gather info. Still early in the season, but we are ready to take another stab. Only two games on the docket tonight. Here is what we are taking:

Spurs @ Bulls +3: The Spurs looked great in their debut while the Bulls make their’s tonight. Derick Rose looks to follow-up a strong rookie season with a win, while the Spurs continue to take care of business and are off a very impressive win last night against the Hornets. Last year, the Spurs did not like to play back-to-back games, so we’ll see how this game effects them. However, it is only game 2 and their team is full of vets that are well coached. They know what it takes to get the job done and, they got some much needed youth in the form of DeJuan Blair. We think the Spurs start the season 2-0 and cover. Take the Spurs and give the points.

Nuggets @ Blazers -8: The Nuggets looked shapr last night in their win at home against the Jazz. Very impressive win. They played D better than they played at all last year. Ty Lawson looks to be a superstar in the making. The Blazers looked solid in their debut, too with a win over a depleted Rockets team. The Blazers will be good, but they were pretty sloppy in game one. We like the Nuggets to ride the momentum and cover. The Blazers should win, but 8 points is too many to give. Take the Nuggets and the points.

Good luck,

Runny & Flash

NBA PICKS: SEASON KICK-OFF

Greetings folks!!!! Another glorious NBA season is upon us and we couldn’t be happier!!!!! This is such a great time of year. World Series. NCAA Football is in full swing. So is the NFL. Hockey is rocking. Such a great time to be a sports fan.

If you followed us the past couple of years, you know we are NBA nuts and that we love to pick games.This is our 3rd season picking NBA games. Last year we started well and ended in a slump. In our first ear we did pretty well. Our system for the NBA is a little different than the systems we use for NCAA Football and the NFL. Since there are so many more games to track, we try to find a balancing system that combines our math analytics with trends that we see develop. We don’t know how it will work this year, but as always, our money is where our mouth is-whatever we post is what we have a vested interest in. So, if you ride with us, we will be there for the good and bad. That said, here is what we like on Day 1:

Celtics @ Cavs -4: The Cavs open the season with a HUGE difference in the middle. In every sense of th word, Shaq is a much bigger presence in the middle than anyone the Cavs have had since Rick Smits. We have no tangible evidence to determine the effect Shaq will have on this team. However, the Cavs still have #23 and he is better than anyone in the league. We are banking the Cavs have enough to cover tonight. The energy will be high and the Cavs will be looking to make a statement. Plus, father time has had one more year to wear on the aging Celtics. Take the Cavs and give the points.

Wizards @ Mavs -8:The Wizards could be the most improved team without adding any players. For the first time in two seasons, they have a healthy Agent 0. That is huge for this team because if he is on, this tea is much, much better. However, they will be without Antwan Jamison who discloated his shoulder in an exhibition game. No doubt the Wiz will be better, but the Mavericks are just too deep. Besides retaining their core, they added great depth with Drew Gooden, Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas. Each of those players, arguably, could be starters right now on the Wizards. We don’t think this game will be close. Take the Mavs and give the points.

Rockets @ Trailblazers -8.5: Probably the easiest game of the night for us-the Rockets have no Tao and no T-Mac. The Blazers are young, athletic, fact and at home. Oden may get the start at center (finally). We love the Blazers. Take the Blazers and give the points.

Clippers @ Lakers -11: Talk about an off-season for the world champs!!! The addition of Artest makes this an extremely mean front court. They were one of the best in the NBA without him, now they are just lethal. They own the Clippers and want nothing more to unveil their latest championship banner at home against their in-town “rivals.” We think this game will be out of reach very quickly. The Clippers are young and athletic, but they cannot hang with the champs. At least not yet anyway. Baron Davis cannot beat Kobe, Bynum, Gasol and Artest on his own.  Take the Lakers and give the points.

As always, good luck with your picks.

Flash and Runny

Week 7 Free NFL Picks: One Week until Halloween, bet the Raiders, Al Davis is a Vampire!

Well our arrogance got the best of us last week. We followed a 5-0 week with a 1-3 week. Have to remember to be humble with the Gambling gods. We are now 18-14 on the season. We also won our knockout pool pick. Hopefully you are like our knockout league and there is about 1/3 of the participants left. The underdog strategy was actually 9-5 last week and is now 43-46-1. Two weeks in a row as a winner.

RPJ $yndicate Picks: These are our straight picks and we are 18-14 on the season.

San Diego at Kansas City (+5) - If you’ve followed our posts, you would know that we have been huge on the Chiefs the past two weeks. Make it three in a row!!!! The Chiefs are not as bad as their record shows. We are not saying they are a good team, but of the teams in their ranks (i.e., the Lions, Raiders, Skins, etc.) they are a clear step above the pack. We like them again this week for two reasons: 1). the Chargers are coming off a tough Monday night loss and not as good as people think, and 2). the Chiefs are at home. Arrowhead could be the best homefield advantage in the NFL (maybe all of sports). Their fans are loyal and the house will be rockin’. The Chargers are going to want no part of the Chiefs. Also, consider that teams traveling after Monday night have terrible win-loss records, and that the Dog in this game is 11-4-1 ATS. Take the Chiefs and the points.

San Diego

• Chargers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
• Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.

• Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 7.
• Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.
• Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Head-to-Head

• Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Chargers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Kansas City.
• Underdog is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Indianapolis at St. Louis (-13) - Very little analysis is needed for this game. The Rams are a joke. The Colts are rolling. We’ve heard analyists say this could the game where the Rams catch the Colts napping. We don’t but it for one primary reason-Payton Manning. The dude is a winner and lives to compete. Also, the only weapon the Rams have is Steven Jackson, but Bob Sanders returns for the Colts Sunday, so there goes any chance of the Rams running the ball. This line should be higher. Here are some ATS numbers to support our case:

• Colts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
• Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 7.
• Rams are 5-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on turf.
• Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

This game will be over by the end of the first half. Take the Colts and give the points.

New England (-14) at Tampa Bay - You saw the game last week. New England went bananas in the snow. Now they get to travel to London for a game against Tampa. We talk about it in our knockout section but this game will come down to a) talent and b) preparation. Pats have more talent then Bucs. Check 1. Pats know how to travel and play in cities where they do not normally play. Think Super Bowl. Bucs have a rookie coach who will not know what to do. We think these two factors are enough to justify our blowout prediction. Pats win and cover big!!!

New England

• Patriots are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7.
• Patriots are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October.
• Patriots are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Patriots are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Patriots are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Patriots are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as a road favorite.
• Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7) - The Bills roll into Carolina fresh off a HUGE win against the struggling Jets. The thing about that game is that the Jets are nowhere near as good as people think. They were 3-3 last year at this same point in the seaon and they had ole #4 calling the shots. We are not buying the hype. So, the Bills win, although big for them, was nothing great. Orchard Park is a tough place to play in October. The Panthers are underachieving, but they have a lot of talent. Probably the best backfield in football and Julius Peppers is heating up. We love them in this game. Look for huge days from Stewart and Williams and for Steve Smith to finally get on track. Take the Panthers and give the points.

Buffalo

• Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

• Panthers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Panthers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.

Green Bay at Cleveland (+7) - We were tempted to go with the Browns to get another cover for us but then thought better after reading reports that a significant number of players have swine flu and have been limited in practice this week. Green Bay had a nice offensive and defensive showing against the Lions last week and we look for that to continue. The Packers defense will come around because it has a lot of play makers and when the Pack O-line fixes their issues, and they will, this team is going to be a serious contender. Now think about this, Cleveland has the worst defense in the league, can’t stop the run at all, is horrible on defensive 3rd downs, are second to last in offense and really just to not excel in any facet of the game. We expect the Packers to win and cover easily!

Green Bay

• Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
• Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Packers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.
• Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Browns are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Browns are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• Browns are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Browns are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Browns are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
• Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Browns are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
• Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

• Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
• Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oakland.

Arizona at NY Giants (-7) - If you thought we liked Oakland, wait until you hear about this game. We love the Giants this week. Arizona is on a two game winning streak and even won easily on the road last week at Seattle. The Giants are pissed off. They went to New Orleans and did not play Giants football and were not able to put any pressure on Brees. Well Brees is not Kurt Warner. Brees drops back and gets rid of the ball quickly. Warner drops back and waits and waits and waits. The Giants are going to tee off and get all of their aggression out on the Cards. Also, the Cards are horrible travelers to the East Coast on a historic basis. They did beat Carolina in the playoffs last year and did win in Jacksonville this year but those teams are not the Giants. Giants win big in the Meadowlands. We are betting the Giants to win and cover! Both teams are good ATS. No reason to show it.

Underdog Strategy: Underdog strategy has two winning weeks in a row. 8-6 and 9-5 for a 17-11 record, or 64.7%. This thing might bear fruit after all. Underdog is listed below in bold.

Packers @ Browns +7

49ers +3.5 @ Texans

Chargers @ Chiefs +5

Colts @ Rams +13

Patriots @ Buccaneers +14

Vikings +4 @ Steelers

Bills +7 @ Panthers

Jets @ Raiders +6

Bears +3 @ Bengals

Falcons +3 @ Cowboys

Saints @ Dolphins +7

Cardinals +7 @ Giants

Eagles at Redskins +7

Knockout Pool Picks: Do not get tricky or try and outsmart the knockout strategy. Some of you are probably tempted to pick the Raiders or Panthers this week. We advise against it. We are a little nervous that our pick this week is on a neutral site but who do you think will be better prepared? Belichick or a rookie coach? No contest really. Pats should have the largest margin of victory again this week.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 6: New England Patriots

Good luck with the picks.

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

NCAA Football Week 8 Picks: Back to where it all started…Picks and Celebrity Chicks!

We are 47-46-1. Not terrible but certainly not profitable. We are still seeking that home run weekend and looking forward to the games this weekend. If you have not done so yet, click the links on the top right of our website to sign up for our Twitter posts and Facebook fan page. Be the first to know when our picks come out. We are going back to our roots this weekend and that means winning picks and hot celebrity chicks. We are calling on the juju gods of year’s past!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Rutgers at Army (+10): We absolutely love this game!! Rutgers is certainly in the midst of what must be a disappointing season. However, they shouldn’t hang their heads too much. This team does not have nearly close to the talent it has had the past few seasons. We think much of the hype was due to what they did in the past and not because of what they have in place right now. What is still there, however, is their coach. This team is well coached and they play right. They love the national spotlight of prime time games, too. This will not be much of a road game for Rutgers and they have more talent than the Black Knights. Army has a terrible ATS record against the Big East and is 0-6 ATS in their last six against Rutgers. Take Rutgers and give the points.

Jessica Biel

Rutgers

• Scarlet Knights are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.
• Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Scarlet Knights are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games.

Beyonce

Illinois at Purdue (-10): Not much need for analysis here. The Fighting Illini have absolutely no fight in them. Purdue is playing better and are fresh off of BCS shake-up defeat of the Buckeyes. They will run through the (non) Fighting Illini like a buzzsaw. Great home game for them. We also like the fact that the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Purdue and give the points.

Mila Kunis

Illinois

• Fighting Illini are 20-42 ATS in their last 62 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. loss.
• Fighting Illini are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games in October.
• Fighting Illini are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Fighting Illini are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a ATS loss.
• Fighting Illini are 4-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Fighting Illini are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
• Fighting Illini are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
• Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

• Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Boilermakers are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Boilermakers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Boilermakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Boilermakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Boilermakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Boilermakers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games in October.

Marissa Miller

Central Michigan (-8) @ Bowling Green - Yes we are very predictable but when you have the MAC and the Fever, you know RPJ will not steer you wrong. Central Michigan is one of the top cover teams in the country this year with only one slip up against Buffalo and that was a 1.5 point miss. With senior leadership, The Chips are the class act of the MAC and we will ride them every single week. Look for another double digit win. Also, Chips are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings head-to-head. We are betting Central Michigan to win and cover!!!

Gabrielle Union

Central Michigan

• Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Chippewas are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
• Chippewas are 15-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Chippewas are 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 conference games.
• Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• Chippewas are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite.
• Chippewas are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 road games.
• Chippewas are 35-14-3 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
• Chippewas are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win.

Rihanna

Adrianna Lima

• Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• Bulls are 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Pitt

• Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
• Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Malin Ackerman

Iowa State at Nebraska (-18.5) - You have seen how we have made big money betting on games like this in the NFL this season and now we have an opportunity in the NCAA. This line opened up at Nebraska -19.5 and moved down to Nebraska -17.5 and guess what? 77% of the money was on Nebraska. More people are jumping on the Iowa State wagon but Vegas is still begging you to take Nebraska. Do not do it!!! Nebraska is riding a 4 game winning streak in this series and will likely run it to 5 games. We think this game will be competitive. Just ask Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State how the Cyclones are playing. Nebraska does not have an identity yet on offense and Pelini is threatening to open up the QB job. Zac Lee has been piss poor the last two weeks and freshman Cody Green got in on the action on two separate occasions against Texas Tech in a game where the Red Raiders were double digit dogs on the road and won with ease. We are not saying Iowa State will win but the cyclones are improving on all sides of the ball and even if Austen Arnaud misses some time at QB, Jerome Tiller showed that he can be counted on. Don’t fall victim to the Vegas trap. We are betting Iowa State to cover!

Megan Fox

Iowa State

• Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cyclones are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Nebraska

• Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Cornhuskers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
• Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Cornhuskers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• Cornhuskers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Olivia Wilde

Oklahoma State (-9.5) at Baylor - If Iowa State can go to Baylor and win by 14 points in a game where they easily could have won by 20+ points we are loving this game and line. Yes Oklahoma State has disappointed this year and they are facing numerous distractions with all of the issues around Dez Bryant but c’mon now folks. We all know how this game will go. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game winning streak since their fluke loss to Houston and is building momentum. Baylor is a shell of itself with Robert Griffin out for the year. No analysis needed. We are taking Oklahoma State to win big and cover!!!

Hayden Panettiere

Oklahoma State

• Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Cowboys are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite.
• Cowboys are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite.

• Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bears are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in October.
• Bears are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
• Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
• Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Eva Mendes

Central Florida (-10) at Rice - Rice is one of the worst cover teams and teams in the country. They are 0-7 and 1-5-1 ATS. Central Florida is 4-1 ATS. Do you need more information? Central Florida was undefeated ATS before they played Miami last week. UCF QB Brett Hodges got knocked around at Miami and suffered a bruised elbow. He has been getting treatment and will be good to go. Rice claims QB Nick Fanuzzi is going to be at full strength for the first time this year but what the hell does that mean? They will only lose by 20 instead of 30. We are betting Central Florida to win and cover!

KAte Beckinsale

Central Florida

• Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
• Knights are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Knights are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

• Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Owls are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Owls are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
• Owls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
• Owls are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Owls are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• Owls are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Moon Bloodgood

Idaho (+16) at Nevada - The Vandals, gotta love them!!! If you have not figured this bet out yet this season then you are not making nearly enough coin! The Vandals are 6-1 on the season and an astounding 7-0 against the spread. We recently introduced you to them in our picks and we are here to ride the Idaho bandwagon. Nevada is riding a three game winning streak and has found their offense. Nevada just scraped by Utah State last week, 35-32 but were 8,5 point favorites. We are definitely calling on the gambling gods with this cover bet but when it is unblemished, keep riding it. We are betting Idaho to cover!

Diora Baird

Idaho

• Vandals are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Vandals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Vandals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Vandals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
• Vandals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Vandals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Vandals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Vandals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Vandals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• Vandals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Vandals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Vandals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Nevada

• Wolf Pack are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
• Wolf Pack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Wolf Pack are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Natalie Gulbis

Texas @ Missouri (+12): Anyone who watched the Red River Rivalry last week (who are we kidding-we know you all did), would know that Texas is not playing well right now. McCoy is nowhere near the guy he was last year and their entire team is underachieving. McCoy comes into this game a little nicked up. Last year Texas trounced the Tigers in Austin 56-31. Both teams were much better than they are now, but we like the Tigers at home this week. Mostly because of the poor play by Texas, but also we love the home field advantage in this one. Plus, after this week Texas heads to Stillwater to play an OK State team that is finding its way despite huge issues. We think Texas takes this game for granted and looks past Mizzou. Mizzou will punch them dead in the face and get a solid cover. ATS numbers are ugly on both sides so we are going to skip them this time around. Take the Tigers at home and the points.

Heidi Klum

Indiana @ Northwestern (-5): The Hooisers stuck it to the non-Fighting Illini last week. They look to build some momentum with tough road game in Evanston against the Wildcats. We love the Hoosiers’ spirit this year, but they don’t have enough to cover this week. They may loose by only a TD, but that is enough for a NW cover. Take Northwestern and give the points.

Paris Hilton

Indiana

• Hoosiers are 8-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Hoosiers are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games.
• Hoosiers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Hoosiers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
• Hoosiers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• Hoosiers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
• Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Northwestern

• Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
• Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Northwestern.

Hope you enjoyed the ladies!!!

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

Kim Kardashian

Week 6 Free NFL Picks: We pick winners!!!

Last week kicked ass. Plain and simple. We were 5-0 and are now 17-11 on the season. We hit another knockout pool winner and are still alive in our pools and the underdog strategy survived with a winning week and is now 34-41-1 on the season. Runny even got on board with his own picks and correctly identified the suckitude of the Dallas Cowboys as they failed to cover against the Chiefs. Everyone is back this week and we have tons of winners.

RPJ $yndicate Picks: These are our straight picks and last week we were 5-0 and are now 17-11 on the season. We are happy and we have been on a tear since we went 2-4 during the first weekend of the NFL.

Philadelphia (-13.5) at Oakland - We almost find this unfair. ESPN tried to find out which teams was worst out of the 4 remaining defeated teams. They needed to look no further than the Oakland Raiders who did not make the poll because they pulled off a miracle win against the Chiefs. The Raiders are bad, really bad. Even worse than the Lions last year. These comments by Antonio Pierce sum up the Raiders right now:

“I do not like knocking teams. But right now, they’re struggling. We’re playing that game the other day and, honestly, it felt like a scrimmage, like a practice,” Pierce said. “It felt like we were going against our offense [in a controlled setting] as far as the tempo.”

Pierce, who admitted to growing up a Raiders fan, continued:

“There was no vibe of trying or effort from the Raiders at all from a defensive standpoint against their offense. We’re getting three-and-outs. You don’t hear nobody [saying], ‘Hey, let’s go!’ trying to pick the guys up, rallying them, getting guys fired up. There was nothing. It was quiet. A guy gets sacked or somebody gets beat, they just get up. It’s not like there’s yelling or no kind of [emotion] about the way they were playing.

This really is not fair to actually get to bet against the Raiders ever week. Well Vegas is out to take your money so we are going to take Vegas every week for our hard earned dollar. The Raiders have zero chance of winning this game. Scott Van Pelt, who can not pick worth a shit, actually wanted to take the Raiders this week. That was strike two against the Raiders. Strike three is Jamarcus Russell who is the worst QB of our lifetime and we are no spring chickens. We are not going to waste our time and your time by analyzing this game. We are betting the Eagles to win and cover!

Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5) - Buffalo is bad but not as bad as the Raiders. We loved watching Rex Ryan’s post game press conferences last week after they choked against the Dolphins and The Gimmick Cat Offense. Rex was embarrassed and pissed off and really fired up. We know he is going to take out his anger on the Bills this week. Buffalo really does not have anything going for it. The Dolphins pounded them. The Browns beat them with a Jamarcus Russell like performance out of their QB. Don’t even get us started on Derek Anderson’s performance last week. Yes the J - E - T - S, Jets Jets Jets have lost two in a row but they lost two in a row on the road. Prior to that they won two at home and we think the friendly confines of the Meadowlands is exactly what this team needs. We are betting the Jets to win and cover!

Buffalo

• Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East.
• Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• Bills are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

• Jets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Baltimore at Minnesota (-3) - We will start by saying this is Colin Cowherd’s upset special of the week. Who has Minnesota really played? Are the wins that impressive? Baltimore on the other hand has easily beaten who they were supposed to beat and lost at New England in a close one and lost last week to the Bungles in another close game. Do you really expect this Baltimore team to lose three in a row. We do not. The Ravens have an enough this year, tons of talent running the ball, Flacco is legit and their Defense is always something to be reckoned with. Minnesota is 5-0 on the season but we are not impressed. This is the type of game the Vikes need to win to demand respect across the league. The Vikes do have A-Pete but he has not been so spectacular the last few weeks and Favre is still looking for that go to wide receiver. We think this is the buzzsaw game. The Vikes are due for a loss and the Ravens absolutely do not want to lose three in a row. We only need a cover here so we love that we are getting points. We are taking the Ravens to cover!

Baltimore

• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
• Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

• Vikings are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.
• Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Week 6 Game of the Week = New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3) - This is going to be an awesome game. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams are unblemished against the spread. The number 1 offense versus the number 4 offense. The Jeremy Shockey revenge game. A national telecast. Both of these teams are going to be ready to play and bringing all they have to offer. We think there is one issue though, we think the Giants are simply the better team. Eli is putting up amazing numbers, he is on sync with his receivers, the running game is still there, the defense is jacked and the #1 key reason is that the NY Giants win the big game. Do the Saints win the big game? Is Brees in the company of The Mannings and Big Ben? We do not know this yet and uncertainty points us to the Giants. In a way it just makes too much sense to bet the Giants anytime they are getting points. They are too good. NFL betting rule #1, only bet the underdog when you think they can win outright. This game fits that bill to a T. Another really bizarre stat, the Saints have lost 5 games in a row coming off the bye. Can’t argue with that and reiterates that this team still has some work to do before they are put on top of the mantle as being an elite NFC team. We are betting the Giants to cover!

NY Giants

• Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Giants are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Giants are 17-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win.
• Giants are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog.
• Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog.
• Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games in October.
• Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 39-16-3 ATS in their last 58 vs. NFC.
• Giants are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games overall.
• Giants are 37-18-3 ATS in their last 58 road games.
• Giants are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 games following a ATS win.

New Orleans Saints

• Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.
• Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Saints are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
• Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Saints are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

Runny Pelvis Picks of the Week - Runny identified the Chiefs cover against the Cowboys last week and he demanded he get his own column for those games that do not meet RPJ criteria but still meet Runny criteria. Runny is 1-0 on the season and he has two more picks for you this week.

Kansas City at Washington (-6.5) - No analysis this week. Sorry folks. Too busy collecting my money. I am betting the Chiefs to cover!

Arizona at Seattle (-3) - I am betting the Seahawks to cover!

Underdog Strategy: We are using this as a tracking mechanism. Just a reminder that we are not advising betting this strategy versus our straight RPJ approved picks. This simply tracks what would happen if you bet the underdog every week. Underdog in bold.

Houston (+5) at Cincinnati

Detroit (+13.5) at Green Bay

St. Louis (+10) at Jacksonville

Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota

NY Giants (+3) at New Orleans

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)

Kansas City (+6.5) at Washington

Philadelphia at Oakland (+13.5)

Arizona (+3) at Seattle

Tennessee (+9.5) at New England

Buffalo (+9.5) at New York Jets

Chicago (+3.5) at Atlanta

Denver (+3.5) at San Diego

Knockout Pool Picks

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

NCAA Football Week 7 Picks: Picks, Chicks and a Salute to Texas RPJ $tyle!

We are 39-39-1 heading into the weekend while waiting for the outcome of the PITT/Rutgers game. So far we are 1-1 on the week. We are very, very afraid this week because we love a ton of games. We usually end up with 3-8 games but this week we are unleashing the fury Mitch!!! When these weeks come, when all of our models and opinions sync up, we hammer the games. This week we are going to discuss some of the marquee matchups and then sling picks for the obvious games. Enjoy the picks. May your wallets be stuffed, your beer fridge full and your girl’s face on your (insert noun here)! It is Red River rivalry and USC/Notre Dame week. We are fired up.

These teams do not need any detailed analysis Games: These picks are pretty straight forward and are set up as either a good team versus a bad team or a bad team versus a horrific team. We are not going to go into detailed analysis to save our carpel tunnel syndrome. Feel free to use our website and our free matchup tools. Click here to stroll through our free data! Just click on this link, find the game you want to analyze and click away on the matchup, supergrid and or preview functions. There is tons of free data for you to use on your own. Bodog has been an awesome partner for us and if you like our picks, which you should of late, help us out by clicking on one of the banner advertisements to sign up for a Bodog account and to get free money.

Kent State at E. Michigan (+6.5) - Give us some credit, you have to respect anyone that is going to drop any sort of knowledge on a Kent State-EMU game!!!! Sometimes we just make it easy for you. Eastern Michigan is one of the worst cover teams and teams in the country, sitting at 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the season. So do not be deceived that Eastern Michigan almost beat Northwestern. Other than that, they have been pounded by the likes of Army and Temple to name a few of the teams they lost to. They also lost to Michigan and Central Michigan but that was expected. We expect Kent State to rebound from the horrible loss to Bowling Green last week. The favorite in this series is also 5-2 ATS in their last seven. We are betting Kent State to win and cover!!!

Hawaii at Idaho (-8) - Do you know who the best cover team is in the country right now? We do and it is the Idaho Vandals. Idaho is 5-1 overall and 6-0 ATS. Their lone loss came at Washington and this team actually won at Northern Illinois and Colorado State. Very impressive. Who are we to bet against them. We love any opportunity to bet on the Vandals!! We are betting Idaho to win and cover!!!

Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-6.5) - Central Michigan is one of the best cover teams in the nation sitting at 5-1. With their lone ATS loss at Buffalo by 1.5 points or so, depending on where you got the line. We also have a bizarre man crush on Dan LeFevour and we are unlikely to bet against him. We have been lucky that he rewarded us nicely two years ago when he was 100% healthy and has rewarded us again this year. We are betting Central Michigan to win and cover!!!

Houston at Tulane (-17) - Well Toolame burned us last week but we are persistent. Houston will run and gun and sling it all over the place. Toolame is not that good and still have the swine flu lingering around campus. Never a good combo..bad football and swine flu. Our boy Case Keenum is going to put 50 on these guys. We are betting Houston to win and cover!!!

BYU (-17) at San Diego State - Another battle of the shit show matchups. BYU has talent. San Diego State does not. BYU = 4-2 ATS. San Diego State = 1-4 ATS. San Diego State basically loses to who they are supposed to lose to. See losses to UCLA, Idaho and Air Force and they beat who they are supposed to beat most of the time. BYU will beat San Diego State and they will beat them easily. We are betting BYU to win and cover!!!

Kentucky at Auburn (-13.5) - If you have not picked up on it yet, bet against Kentucky every week you can in the SEC. They snuck one in on us at South Carolina last week but we got nice covers with Alabama and Florida. We are going to ride the anti-Kentucky bandwagon once again. We still have no clue as to how this program is in any Div 1 conference. They are terrible even for SEC standards. Auburn wins and covers!!!

Ohio State (-13.5) at Purdue - Another certainty, Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten and covers most of the time. Just keep riding the wave. This is not rocket science. Ohio State has covered every Big Ten game this year (3-0) and Purdue has lost all of them (0-2). Ohio State is also 5-1 ATS on the season. Purdue is in a major transition year. New coach. New players. New offensive philosophy. They have been playing games hard, but they just don’t have the talent and cohesion OSU has. This game may be close in the first half, as the Boilermaker faithful will be out in full force and going bananas. However, OSU will pull away in the 2nd half. We are betting Ohio State to win and cover!!!

Illinois (-3) at Indiana - We love this game!! Runny has been to it in person a couple of times. It is like a battle of the two worse state fairs you can think of!!! These teams hate each other. The Hoosiers have been a HUGE surprise this year. The fact this team has even won one game is shocking. The Illini have also blown our minds with some of the worse play in college football (we picked this team to beat Mizzou outright in week one!!!!). Juice is a huge bust. Benn is having a terrible year. So, what will give in this sideshow of a game??? The Illini will give. They are favorites based on the rep and promise over the past few seasons. This team is not the team that played SC in the Rose Bowl. The Hoosiers will win outright. Take Indiana at home with the points.

Louisville at UCONN (-13)- Big East match-up with implications. The Huskies are looking to show their program is no fluke and the Cardinals are trying to salvage some respectability at home. UConn’s pogram IS solid. They are similar to Cincy. They are well coached and play hard. They will be stoked at home. The cover will be close, but the Huskies will still pull it out. This is another one of the brainless picks. UCONN is 5-0 against the spread. Always bet into strength. This line seems awfully high but bet it with confidence. Take the Huskies and give the points.

Iowa at Wisconsin (-3) - This game is a trap!! Beware!!! There is absolutely no logical reason to justify why the Hawkeyes are the dogs in this game. The Hawkeyes are arguably the best team in the Big 10. Wisconsin is having a down year. Although the Badgers are at home in Madison where it is extremely tough to play, this team is just not that good and they are certainly not playing to the level of Iowa right now. Further proof of the trap comes from the numbers: 68% of the money is on Iowa and the line opened Iowa -1. The line should have gone up, not down to the Badgers as favorites. VEGAS KNOWS!! Don’t fall for it!! Take Iowa to win and cover!

Washington at Arizona State (-6.5) - Is it us, or does ASU break your hearts every freakin’ year? Every year this team has the promise of being good, and every year, we bet them and bet them only to get left at the alter. Not this time!! The Huskies have an entirely new lease on life. After beating USC, they have shown they have some swagger and the guts to hang in there against anyone. They played the Irish super tough in the South Bend, so they have shown that road trips do not scare them. They will be ready for the PAC-10 game. ASU may win, but it will be within a TD. Take the Huskies and the points!

Stanford at Arizona (-4.5) - Very similar game to the Washington-ASU game. Stanford gets the edge for us despite being on the road. They are really well coached (Harbaugh may be one the best coaches in Div 1 football). Harbaugh gets more out of talent than any coach in the country (except for maybe Chris Peterson in Boise). They are a smart team. Zona is solid, too, but Stanford will be ready and they are playing with a chip on their shoulders for some national respect. Take the Cards and the points.

Arkansas at Florida (-25) - This game has “let down” written all over it. Everyone has anointed the Gators as national champs despite having half the season left to go. The Gators are in cruise control. They will be at home. They have not looked dominating at all. Not at all. The Razorbacks having nothing to lose and they will pull out all the stops. They have a solid QB in Ryan Mallett. He can straight sling it!!! The gators have not faced a QB this good all year. Remember Ole Miss last year? The Razorbacks could do the same thing. Plus, don’t underestimate Petrino. He is a good coach, and we know he can play dirty (just ask Arthur Blank and the Falcons). Look for Petrino to pull an Arkansas sweathog move and knock Tebow out of the game! Take the ‘Backs and the points.

Not the Red River Rivalry but the next best game of the week!

Southern California (-10) at Notre Dame - For months people (i.e. the media and dumb Domers) have been touting the Irish as a legit BCS championship contender and one of the best teams in the country. Guess what? Another year proves yet again that they are probably the most overrated program in all of sports. If they were in the SEC they would probably be ranked #5 in the country, but we know they are a joke. Michael Floyd is out for this game so that means the only threat they have is Golden Tate. That is not enough against this SC Defense. USC comes in with tons of swagger knowing that they have stomped this team in recent years. They also are playing inspired ball from rallying behind their fallen comrad, Stephon Johnson. USC relishes playing opponents on the road under the spotlight. Barkley knows he is the man for this team, and he is grasping control of the offense more and more each week. They destroyed Cal in Berkley two weeks ago, and that team had WAAAAAAAY more talent on both sides of the ball than this Irish team. This game will not be close. Look for a HUGE game from Taylor Mays as Clausen tries to test fate and go deep on this team. Mays will get him. Now that we got our USC homerness out of the way you really need to think about this game logically. Look at the line and what do you see? USC is favored, on the road, against the 25th rated team in the country, against the QB with the best QB rating in the country, a team with multiple 4th quarter comebacks and USC is playing a true freshmen. Did you just follow that sequence of logic? Makes you want to bet Notre Dame right? Well we always say that Vegas knows and Vegas set this line at ten points because Vegas knows all of the Notre Dame idiots will easily bet this game at USC -10. That line speaks volumes. If Notre Dame was any good the line would not be USC -10. Be safe, be smart and listen to Vegas. Plus, look at the picture below….could you feel remotely safe betting on a team with that guy leading the charge?What the hell does the “CC” stand for on the banana hammock on the dude on the left? How is he not getting crushed in the papers for this? Take USC and gladly give the points.

USC

• Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. INDEP.
• Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
• Trojans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
• Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Trojans are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Trojans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

• Fighting Irish are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
• Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Fighting Irish are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
• Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
• Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Red River Rivalry Game of the week!

Oklahoma at Texas (-3) - The Sooners need this game more, but Texas is just too good right now. Bradford is not close to 100% and Stoops cannot win big games. McCoy is primed for a huge game. He will get it this week against the Sooners. Oklahoma is another one of those early season teams that had uncertainty on their O-line. This has not been solved due to injuries and Texas is going to bring a nasty defense to the Texas State Fair. If you watched last week’s game, Sam Bradford is not ready to go and one more week of practice will help but will certainly not make him comfortable. These teams look very similar on paper but we think the difference will be QB and O-line and Texas wins both of those matchups. And how could we forget Big Game Bob Stoops. Big Game Bob is 0-4 ATS in his last 4 in this series and we expect the pain to continue. We are betting Texas to win and cover!!!

Oklahoma

• Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Sooners are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Sooners are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
• Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Sooners are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Texas

• Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
• Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Longhorns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Longhorns are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Get the latest Sports Wagering Odds at Bodog Sportsbook

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

NCAA Football Week 7 Picks: Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Rutgers

We are putting this post out while the Cincy/USF game is still going on so we are 38-39-1 with one game pending. We loved the fact that there was football for 8 straight days. Love October. Has to be the best month of the year.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Rutgers - We love these paper tiger match ups. Not saying Pitt is a BCS contender but Rutgers is not a good football team and Pitt is competitive. Rutgers was one of the early season teams we identified as having O-line problems and this showed when they got destroyed by Cincinnati in their home opener. Since then, Rutgers has reeled off 4 straight wins against power house teams such as Howard, Florida International, Maryland and Texas Southern. That’s right…2 1-AA schools. Looks like an SEC schedule to us. Pitt at least has challenged itself by playing Navy and NC State out of conference and started in their Big East schedule against UCONN and Louisville. They had a great comeback win against UCONN last time out. No current Panther has ever played in a victory over Rutgers, which has won four in a row over Pitt. This seems to be the year with Rutgers starting a freshmen QB and Pitt bringing a lot of experienced players. These teams look pretty similar on paper so we think the ultimate result will come down to QB and O-line play and both of these favor Pitt. We are betting Pitt to win and cover!!!

Pittsburgh

• Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
• Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
• Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
• Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
• Panthers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite.
• Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Get the latest Sports Wagering Odds at Bodog Sportsbook

NCAA Football Week 7 Picks: Cincinnati (-2.5) at South Florida

We are now 38-39-1 following last night’s Boise State game. Damn Broncos blew the first quarter and then gave up the late miracle cover buy giving up back to back HUGE plays to lose the cover in the 4th quarter. Gonna keep on rolling with tonight’s game.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Cincinnati (-2) at South Florida - It has been no surprise that we love Cincy this season. Tony Pike is the man,  Coach Brian Kelly is the man and this team is loaded with tough as nails city kids that play nasty every week. UC lost 10 defensive starters from last year, but rather than be plagued by inexperience, Kelly moved several seasoned offensive players to defense, including former Notre Dame quarterback Demetrius Jones, now a starting linebacker. There is one thing we know about South Florida and Thursday night games…they don’t like them. In 2007, USF was ranked No. 2 nationally and faced a Thursday night game at Rutgers—Rutgers 30, USF 27. In 2008, USF was ranked No. 10 nationally and had a Thursday night home meeting against Pittsburgh—Pittsburgh 26, USF 21. Jim Leavitt is a great coach and he has worked wonders with this team since Grothe went down. This game should be close and competitive and we expect it to come down the the wire. We love this line under 3 points and we expect a Cincy win in the 3-7 point range. We also like that Cincy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We are betting Cincinnati to win and cover!!!

Cincinnati

• Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
• Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• Bearcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Bearcats are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Bearcats are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
• Bearcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.

• Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
• Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Flash Flash and Runny

NCAA Football Week 7 Picks: Boise State Broncos (-3) at Tulsa Paper Tigers

We are kicking off this week early with lots of games before the weekend even arrives. Last week we were 6-3 and now stand at 38-38-1. We received some complaints from folks in the workplace that we needed to hide the chicks further down the page so we will oblige. We are not dropping the girls but they will not be the first thing you see when you open out webpage. Feel free to use the comment function at the bottom of each post to let us know what you think. Hopefully we did not scare you off with our early results because we have been warming up in NCAA and are on fire with our NFL picks.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Boise State (-8.5) at Tulsa - Paper tiger is a literal English translation of the Chinese phrase zhǐ lǎohǔ, meaning something that seems as threatening as a tiger, but is really harmless. The experts are looking for games that Boise State might lose and this game jumps out at them. We disagree. Tulsa is not that good compared to Boise State. Tulsa could not score against Oklahoma and barely got by Rice (27-10). Boise State on the other hand beat an Oregon team that is proving to be really good and has pounded WAC and MAC foes with ease. Coach Peterson says he does not care about the BCS standings but we do not believe with him either. Boise State has to win the must win games and win them convincingly to stay in the BCS conversation. Boise State was only a 7.5 point favorite at Fresno State and blew them out; this line at -8.5 is a joke. Look for at least a 14 point win, if not more. We are betting Boise State to win and cover!!!!

Boise State

• Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Broncos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
• Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Broncos are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Broncos are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
• Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.
• Broncos are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win.
• Broncos are 35-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Broncos are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Broncos are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games.

• Golden Hurricane are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Golden Hurricane are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Golden Hurricane are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Flash Flash and Runny