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NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: Go with the flow: Chicks and Picks part 2!

We were a solid 6-3-1 last weekend and we are now 53-49-2 on the season. We have a ridiculous amount of picks this week. We are excited for all of the freaks that will be out at NCAA games this weekend. Halloween night at Autzen might be the most insane place on earth Saturday night. We can not wait. We are back mentioning our clean sweep strategy. What this means is we have numerous stats that we look at that impacts a team’s ability to control the ball on both sides of the ball. Based on our historical analysis of this aspect of our betting algorithms, these clean sweep games provide tremendous opportunities to win bets.

Friday, October 30, 2009

West Virginia (-3) at South Florida - Love love love kicking off the week with this game. South Florida has come back to earth. For the third consecutive season, an undefeated, nationally ranked USF team has fallen off its perch and into a mid-year skid. West Virginia is winning. Why is this line where it is? This should be a 7-10 point line. This line opened at -3 and has creeped up to -3.5 in some places. Majority of the money is on West Virginia and that has us slightly nervous. We think this is an easy bet to kick off the week. No ATS numbers to speak of but check this out. We have a virtual clean sweep. West Virginia is better rushing the ball, yards per rush, offensive 3rd down conversion percentage, stopping the run (total yards and yards per rush) and defensive 3rd down percentage. We love these types of games. West Virginia wins and covers easily!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Rutgers at UCONN (-7) - UCONN remains the best cover team in the country with a record of 7-0 ATS. Betting can be simple and who are we to say UCONN breaks their streak. When you combine this with the fact that Rutgers is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against UCONN, you start to get excited. Start your Halloween off right and bet UCONN. UCONN wins and covers!!!

Cincinnati (-15) at Syracuse - This game should be haunted house frightening. Cincy is a beast right now and this game meets a lot of our clean sweep requirements. This will make you feel a lot better. Cincy rushes for more yards and at a better yards per rush basis; they control the clock better on offense; are significantly tighter against the run and protect the QB a lot better. Tony Pike is not going to play but Collaros has filled in just fine. We are betting Cincy to win and cover!

Cincinnati

• Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

• Orange are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
• Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
• Orange are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

SMU at Tulsa (-16) - This should be one of the biggest ass kickings of the weekend. SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell got knocked out of last week’s game and remains questionable for this week. The Boise State beating hangover should finally be gone for Tulsa. UTEP took advantage last week. Tulsa plays great at home and Coach Graham’s teams always finish strong. When you look at the stats side by side, this is where it should get ugly for SMU fans. Tulsa rushes for 60 yards more per game, converts third downs 12% better (37% vs. 25%), SMU gives up 175 yards rushing per game (120 for Tulsa) and 4.49 yards per rush. SMU’s defense also gives up third downs 43% of the time (36% for Tulsa). These numbers are ugly. Tulsa dishes out another Golden Hurricane!! Tulsa wins and covers big!

NC State at FSU -8: If you followed us all season, you know we have loved NC State and their QB. You would also know that we like ganing up on FSU and Bobby Bowden. This week, however, we think FSU takes it. The ATS numbers are pretty god for FSU, but that is not why we like them. We like them mosltly because they are playing inspired football ever since Bowden came under fire. We think they will be up for this game and ready to roll. Plus, FSU just has much, much more talent than NC State does. Take the Seminoles and give the points.

Ole Miss at Auburn +4.5: This is a HUGE game for both teams. Both teams need this winn to save some credibility for their seasons and to keep Bowl chances alive. We have always thought both team are overrated. The Rebels have been hit-or-miss all season, and Jevon Snead does not look like the QB he was last year. The edge in this game, despite being on the road, goes to the Rebels. Chizik is not a good coach and Snead can get the win on the road. We love that Vegas is giving Auburn no respect at home. Take the Rebels and give the points.

Georgia (+15) neutral location versus Florida - Does Florida look right to anybody out there? The Florida defense looks good but not dominating. Tim Tebow looks terrible since his concussion. Florida’s offense is not dynamic enough, is relying too much on a not right Tebow and is not focused on getting the ball in the playmakers’ hands. Something is not right with the Gators. Florida is coming off two less than inspiring efforts and Georgia righted the ship last week with a solid and needed win at Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs are still a bit miffed at the Florida coach for calling two timeouts in the final minute of last year’s 49-10 blowout, a ploy that Meyer described — apparently with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek — as merely a way to get a few extra carries for a little-used running back.  The picture of Urban Meyer calling a timeout hangs all over Georgia’s training facility. The Bulldogs get to see it when they’re changing into their uniforms, when they’re lifting weights, when they’re heading off to meetings. Not sure Georgia has the horses to win this game outright but the combination of revenge and Florida sucking of late has on on the side of the Dawgs. We are betting Georgia to cover!

Georgia

• Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Penn State (-17) at Northwestern - This is another clean sweep game and a blatant one at that. Not even worth going into how inferior this Northwestern team is. Penn State is on a roll. 4 straight wins, 4 straight blowout wins and 4 straight covers. Northwestern is spotty at best. 17 points is a lot but expect a better performance than the Michigan performance last week and that was 35-10 on the road. Penn State wins and covers!!

Penn State

• Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
• Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games in October.
• Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
• Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win

• Wildcats are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win.
• Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Yellow Jackets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite

Vanderbilt

• Commodores are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Commodores are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Eastern Michigan at Arkansas -34.5: We are calling this the Bigfoot Bowl becuase it is so very rare that a SEC team schedules an out of conference cupcake team at home, it is like seeing Bigfoot. NOT!! The SEC is comical and the pollsters should be pounding the Razorbacks (and every other SEC team) for these types of games. That said, we know why these games happen and we are going to take advantage and win some scratch for us. Petrino will have no problem running up the score in this game. It will not be close. Take the Razorbacks and give the points.

USC (-4) at Oregon - This is the game of the week and one of the biggest games in the history of Oregon football. The nation will probably not give a crap but consider this…. USC is a top 5 BCS team so a win on the road against a top ten team elevates them against the one loss teams and the no loss teams. If Oregon wins, they will certainly jump into the mix for top 5 BCS standings. We all know that November is a mess for BCS leaders and any upset is possible. Whichever of these teams wins out, if they win out, will have an edge over the Bama/Florida loser if both pay undefeated and will have the edge over every one loss team. Now onto the game, which is what we are here to do. USC is 2-4 straight up in Oregon in their last 6. Forget the spread, Autzen is brutal. If you have never been there you just do not get it. It has the smallest space in all of NCAA football in terms of fans from the field. Fans are literally vertical straight up from the outline of the field. Now add the freak show that is the Eugene Oregon hippies and this is going to be an amazing scene in terms of freaks and noise. Regardless of USC’s record the last few years, they have struggled the last three seasons in the BCS and are only covering 35% of the time. Now we know Barkley won in South Bend and Columbus, but this is another animal. Sorry Golden Homers and Horseshoers, Autzen is a special animal. Mark Sanchez choked there two years ago filling in for the injured Booty. USC contained Dixon but could not make up for Sanchez’s mistakes. We love betting teams we think will win straight up when they are underdogs and Oregon is that animal this week. You know we are USC homers but we love making money as well. Oregon is a no brainer this week. Take Oregon to cover!

USC

• Trojans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

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