NFL Week 4 Free Winning Picks: Lets make it three in a row!!!
RPJ was 3-2 for the second week in a row and is now 8-8 on the season. The knockout pool is now 3-0 and rolling along. The underdog strategy took a beating and was 5-11 last week and is now 21-26-1 on the season. Sunday, October 4, 2009
Don't fall victim to VEGAS!!!
Don’t fall victim to the Vegas Trap Games Trap Game #1
Detroit at Chicago (-10) - This is a fun game to look at and has that feel good story written all over it. Lions prevented themselves from being the second team to lose 20 games or more in a row and they should be applauded. The Lions are the emotional story for the week and Vegas knows it. This line has not moved at all and 70% of the money is on the Lions to cover. When it looks like a trap and smells like a trap….guess what? It is a trap game. The Bears won two nice games in a row and are coming home. We think this has blowout written all over it. Bears win and cover easily!!
Detroit
- Lions are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Lions are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Lions are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chicago
- Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in October.
Trap Game #2
Cincinnati (-6) at Cleveland - This game sounds like pure lunacy but we think Mangini is actually a good coach. Derek Anderson gets the start this week and he will have a week to prepare. Yes the Bungles are 2-1 but they are still the Bengals. Browns have a lot to prove at 3-0 and Mangini is at risk of losing the locker room. About 5 players are filing grievances with the league on Mangini but I am sure Mangini does not give a crap and will keep on keeping on. Remember, Mangini is the guy that helped build the Jets team that is now 3-0. He knows what he is doing. Not sure the Browns can win but we think they can keep it close. Now in looking at the numbers. This line has not moved a lick and 93% of the betting population is taking the Bengals. We are more than happy to bet away from the public. Underdog is also 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Can you smell the upset? We are taking the Browns to cover!!!
Cincinnati
- Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
- Bengals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC.
- Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- Bengals are 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
- Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Bengals are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 4.
Cleveland
- Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
- Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Browns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Beatdowns - We just think these are great teams versus average teams. Get in on the action! The NY Giants should be bet every week this season.
NY Giants (-8.5) at Kansas City - The great thing about the NFL is you get really really good teams playing horrible teams every single week. NY Giants are filthy and even though Kansas City is a tough place to play, it won’t be playing this Chiefs team. Chiefs have close to zero on offense and terrible QBs. Giants are also 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. We love the Giants to win big and back to back shutouts are not out of the question!!!
NY Giants
- Giants are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Giants are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games.
- Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- Giants are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games in October.
- Giants are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. win.
- Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
- Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Giants are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
- Giants are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Giants are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Giants are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
Kansas City
- Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Seattle at Indianapolis (-10) - The Colts are looking awesome right now. It will hurt that Freeney is going to miss at least two games but it won’t matter against the Seahawks. Peyton and crew are just en fuego right now. We do not think this game will be close in any way. We are taking the Colts to win and cover!!!
Seattle
- Seahawks are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Seahawks are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games in October.
- Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Indy
- Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
- Colts are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
Straight picking: No themes, no gimmicks. These are just games we like flat out.
Dallas (-3) at Denver - Yes, Denver is 3-0 but the Bengals game was a fluke or simply Roy Williams missing tackles like he routinely did in Big-D. They also played the Browns and the Raiders, two of the worst teams in the league. Dallas has played tough this year and their defense played significantly better against Carolina. Romo is still getting used to his WRs and the backfield is a box full of corpses. The Cowboys RBs could not be more injured. We think this is the game the Broncos finally come back to earth. The Denver defense is not the Orange Crush defense of old. Fans need to get a grip in the Mile High City. Cowboys will do just enough to win by more than 3. Thinks 24-20. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!!
Dallas
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Cowboys are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
Denver
- Broncos are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games on grass.
- Broncos are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games overall.
- Broncos are 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
- Broncos are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a S.U. win.
- Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5) - Not sure what the Steelers are doing to be favored by so much in this game. Pittsburgh could easily be 0-3 on the season. The issues are the Steelers are not being very Steeler-like. They can not run the ball well, their O-line is allowing too much pressure on Big Ben and the loss of Troy P in the secondary is proving to be a huge hurdle. The Steelers are yet to cover on the season and the reason is that the betting public will always bet Steelers. We like to go against the grain and think San Diego will be in this game for 4 quarters. We are betting the Chargers to cover!!
San Diego
- Chargers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Chargers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Chargers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 14-5-3 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog.
- Chargers are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
- Chargers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games in October.
- Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
- Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC.
Pittsburgh
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Green Bay at Minnesota (-3.5) - Minnesota might be 3-0 on the season but we do not think it is as good a 3-0 as the media experts think. Favre is really not doing much and has not been in a shoot out yet. The Vikings actually needed a second half to get A. Pete going last week against a physical 49ers team and they will face another, aggressive, physical team this weekend in Green Bay. Green Bay will look to run up the score early so they can force Favre into making bad, quick decisions. The Pack are still learning their new 3-4 D but they have the personnel to pull it off and their secondary is still grabbing INTs out there. We know this game will be close and we think the Pack might pull the upset. Aaron Rodgers will have extra motivation to show that the Packers made the right move when they dumped Favre. The ATS numbers look awesome in our favor. We are betting Green Bay to cover!!!
Green Bay
- Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
- Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
- Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Packers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Packers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 Monday games.
Minnesota
- Vikings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North.
- Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Vikings are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
- Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
- Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Head-to-Head
- Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Minnesota.
- Underdog is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
- Road team is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy is 21-26-1. Not doing so hot. We might only keep with this for another 2-3 weeks to see if it is worth tracking. Underdogs are in bold:
Detroit (+10) at Chicago
Cincy at Cleveland (+6)
Oakland (+9.5) at Houston
Seattle (+10) at Indy
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
NY Giants at Kansas City (+8.5)
Baltimore (+2) at New England
Tampa Bay (+7) at Washington
Buffalo at Miami (+2)
NY Jets (+7) at New Orleans
Dallas at Denver (+3)
St. Louis (+10) at San Francisco
San Diego (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
Knockout Pool Strategy - We are rolling along picking winner after winner. This is like taking candy from a baby. Simply use Danny Sheridan’s opening lines, take the home team with the largest opening line and you will win your knockout pool more times than not. No reason to ever take a team on the road.
Week 1 = New Orleans
Week 2 = Redskins
Week 3 = Baltimore
Week 4 = Bears
Enjoy the picks!!!
Flash Flash and BSL
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RPJ is 4-2 going into MNF. We won our knockout pick also. Looks like we learned some valuable lessons this week. Dallas is terrible is #1.