Week 5 Free NFL Picks: The Cream Always Rises!!!
On the season RPJ $yndicate is 12-11. Nice to have a winning record but we need to stretch it out some. We have correctly picked four winners for you knockout pool fans. The underdog strategy (betting all underdogs every week) is not doing so well and we will stop tracking it if it brings in another bad weekend. This strategy is 26-35-1. We are going to break this down into a couple of categories. This first category is the Obvious category and there are a lot of them this week. The second category is the Home Dog category and then we will have a third category just because we are running out of idea.
Obvious Games of the Week: These games are easy to pick. The best teams are playing some of the worst teams and we plan on capitalizing on it. To top it off, we do not think any analysis is necessary. Sorry folks but these games are that easy.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-14.5) - We are taking the Eagles to win and cover.
Oakland at NY Giants (-15) - We are taking the Giants to win and cover.
Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis - We are taking Favre and the Vikes to win and cover.
The Home Dog Strategy: Some of the other games we love to bet on are home dogs when we actually think the home team has a better than 65% chance of winning the game outright.
NY Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2) - A couple of things need to be pointed out here. First, the Mark Sanchez project is slowly going down hill. Just check out his numbers from his last three games. Not pretty. The Saints won the game last week because of Sanchez. Second, the Dolphins were underdogs last week and destroyed the Bills. We think the Jets are worse than people think and Sanchez is coming back to reality. On the flip side, even with Pennington out, the Fins are not as bad as people think. We think this is the type of game, home game, national spot light, division rivalry. All signs point to the Fins for us and they are the UNDERDOG. Another thing to think about, 92% of the money is on the Jets, the line opened at Jets -1 and is now Jets -2. Vegas is taking all the action and encouraging all of the to go to the Jets. Do not do it!!! We are betting the Dolphins to cover in this game!!!
NY Jets
- Jets are 4-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
- Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
- Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
- Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
- Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Browns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
- Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Underdog Strategy - Just to repeat, all we do here is track what would happen if we bet every single underdog. No thought process just bet on every underdog. In the past, this strategy sometimes has paid off very well. This season not so much. 26-35-1 on the season. Underdogs in Bold.
Bengals (+9) at Ravens
Cleveland (+6) at Buffalo
Washington (+4) at Carolina
Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10.5)
Dallas at Kansas City (+9)
Oakland (+15) at NY Giants
Tampa Bay (+14.5) at Philadelphia
Minnesota at St. Louis (+10)
Atlanta (+2.5) at San Francisco
Houston (+5.5) at Arizona
New England at Denver (+3)
Jacksonville (+1) at Seattle
Colts at Titans (+3.5)
NY Jets at Miami (+2)
Knockout Pool Pick: We are 4-0 and moving to 5-0 after this weekend. Tons of options this week and we would normally have taken the Giants but we will save them for down the road and we do not know what Eli’s backup QB can do. We know what Donovan’s backup can do and Kolb can easily beat the Bucs.
Week 1: New Orleans
Week 2: Washington
Week 3: Baltimore
Week 4: Chicago
Week 5: Philadelphia
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Comments
Great week all around for every strategy. RPJ was 5-0. YES 5-0!!!!!!! We told you we were gonna nail this one weekend. RPJ is now 17-11 on the season with 4 winning weeks in a row. The underdog strategy was 8-6. Not too bad. That strategy is now 34-41-1. We also hit our knockout pool contender with the Eagles. Life was good this weekend.
Upset of the Week: KC beats Dallas outright. Dallas is terrible. Romo should not be a starting QB on any team. This is not a RPJ pick. Just me on my own, but my money is on the KC moneyline.
Runny