December 26, 2009 Winning Bowl Game Predictions: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Meineke Car Care Bowl and Emerald Bowl
We are becoming one of the best indicators of this NCAA football bowl season. We are now 1-5. Of the 5 we lost, we did not even have the winner of the game correct. Disaster city but we will press on. Just bet the opposite of what we are saying.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (-3) versus Marshall Thundering Herd - This is hands down one of the worst named bowls of all time. This is the tale of two ATS teams right now. Ohio is on a bit of a hot streak, covering in 4 straight games. Marshall has lost three in a row against the spread and has lost 3 out of 4 games straight up. Marhsall’s skid prompted their coach to high tale it out of town and in steps new coach, Doc Holliday. We love the name Doc Holliday but we do not see Marshall showing up to play an inspired ball game. Ohio has really played well down the stretch. They won at Ball State and Buffalo and then beat Northern Illinois and Temple at home. They did lose by 10 to Central Michigan and Dan LeFevour their last time out but they pulled the cover and Dan LeFevour is the man so that was fine with us. We are going to ride the hot team. We are betting on Ohio to win and cover!
Ohio Bobcats
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
- Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
- Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Marshall Thundering Herd
- Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC.
Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels versus Pittsburgh Panthers (-3) - This pains us to write but this is another one of the games where we bet the underdog to cover because they give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense. We already blew it once with Central Florida and Rutgers but we are going back to the well. We wanted to take Rutgers but the strategy told us otherwise. Same situation here. We would normally take UNC in this case but the under 100 yard strategy not only wins but it literally picks outright winners. 70% of the teams win outright so getting points is like a sundae with extra fudge and whipped cream. Our gut says go UNC but you know the drill. On one note, Pitt is terrible against the ACC and terrible in bowl games. Check out the numbers below. We are taking UNC to cover!
North Carolina
- Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
- Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.
- Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Emerald “Deez Nuts” Bowl: Boston College Eagles versus USC Trojans - Oh how the mighty have fallen. USC’s season was more than a disappointment. The team literally imploded. The offense did not improve at all during the whole season and the defense looked like a pop warner team against the likes of Oregon and Stanford. Throw in horrific choking losses to Washington and Arizona and you have your 8-4 USC Trojans. USC was also 3-9 ATS on the season. Now we look at USC’s problems. The coaching staff is a shell of itself following the championship teams of yesteryear. Pete Carroll is micro managing. He let Norm Chow go because of ego and the team has not been the same since. Now there are more quality control issues. Joe McKnight is driving around in Range Rovers. Players are showing up academically ineligible for bowl games. We see distractions, distractions and more distractions. Distractions and an under performing team lead to bowl losses. Is Boston College good? Not really. They play well on defense and have a mediocre offense. Sounds a lot like USC but BC gets 9 points. It is almost sacrilege to bet against USC in a bowl game, but we have to do it. We are betting that BC covers!!!
Boston College
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Eagles are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
USC
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Trojans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Trojans are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.
- Trojans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
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