NFL Week 13 Free Winning Picks: Straight Cash Homey!!!
RPJ $yndicate Picks - After going 5-4 last week, we are now 37-32 on the season. We still have a few weeks to show some improvement and all this really shows is if you take our our 5-0 week we are simply 500 on the season. We went on a late season surge with our NCAA picks and we plan on doing the same here.
Sunday December 6, 2009
Philadelphia (-5) at Atlanta - What is the over/under on Michael Vick references in this game. Probably enough to make us vomit in our mouths. This game is the culmination of horrible injuries for the Falcons. No Matt Ryan, if he plays Michael Turner will not be effective and starting guard Harvey Dahl went out last week. Yes, the Falcons won the game but they only rushed for 75 yards against the #32 rushing defense at the time. The Eagles are always capable of putting a beat down on somebody. We know the Eags are fighting their own injuries (Westbrook, their secondary and D Jax) but the Eagles have been here before. When they need somebody to step up, they step up. Grab Avant this week if you need a WR in fantasy football. So coming in to this game knowing Atlanta is banged up on offense, they really do not want to face the Eagles defense, which is a lot better than Atlanta’s. We also love the fact that the Falcons have the second worst defensive 3rd down conversion percentage. They let teams convert 3rd downs 47% of the time. That is horrific. We are betting the Eagles to win and cover big!
Philadelphia
- Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 13.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) - Big Ben back, Raiders still suck. Final score prediction 35-3. NEXT!!!
The Saints made me their Bitch!!!
New England at Miami (+4) - This is a bizarre game on paper because when we look at the stats we look at and see one team ahead in the relevant stats by a wide margin we call that a clean sweep game, a no brainer! In this game, Miami is that team. Just to highlight a couple of them: Miami runs for more than 40 yards more per game, 6/10ths more per rush, converts offensive third downs 4 percentage points better and gives up less rushing yards, yards per rush and 3rd down conversions on defense. What does this all mean? It means Miami is the perfect antithesis of the Pats and should be able to control the clock and keep this game close. That is what we are banking on. We are betting the Dolphins to cover!
New England
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss.
- Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
- Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.
- Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC East.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Vikings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 13.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
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Baltimore at Green Bay (-3) - We did not expect this but Green Bay, like we explained for Miami, is another clean sweep team. They look better statistically in all the right places against the Ravens. We are not worried about Green Bay’s line because the Ravens only have 21 sacks on the season and have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. This is a winnable game for the Pack and we expect Aaron Rodgers to remain hot. We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!!!
Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy bombed last week to end what was one hell of a tear. On the season this strategy is now 89-84-2. Pretty interesting that all you have to do is bet every underdog and you come out with a winning record. Underdogs in bold:
NY Jets at Buffalo (+3.5) - Bills lose
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5)
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Carolina
St. Louis (+9.5) at Chicago
Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis
Houston at Jacksonville - No action due to pick em
Denver at Kansas City (+5)
Oakland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh
New Orleans at Washington (+9.5)
New England at Miami (+4)
San Diego at Cleveland (+13.5)
Dallas at NY Giants (+2.5)
San Francisco at Seattle - No action due to pick em
Minnesota at Arizona (+3)
Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay
Knockout Pool - We are still rocking along here. Our knockout pool is down to 17 people. Hopefully you are still alive in yours. We caught some guff this week from some of you knockout pool players, saying our strategy is dumb and we need to chart out our picks. Well we stick our nose up at you. Our strategy is simple, Take the opening lines of the week and pick the home team with the highest line. So for you naysayers, we are still here winning and guess what? We get to play the Colts this week!
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
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Winners all around. RPJ was 3-2 and is now 40-34 on the season. The underdog strategy rebounded nicely and was 10-6 and now stands at 99-90-2 on the season. We also hit our knockout pool winner with the Colts.