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Archive for January, 2010

NFL Championship Game Playoff Predictions: Jets vs. Colts and Vikings vs. Saints. It is Go Time!!

We locked in another 2-2 weekend last week. This time we won both AFC games and lost both NFC games. We are now 4-4 during the playoffs with 3 games left to make some serious coin. We totally blew the Cowboys/Vikings game and to quote Bill Simmons, we wish we cold have bet the Saints/Cards game after two Kurt Warner series. The Cards were just off big time and were done in the 1st quarter. We are looking to hit both games this weekend and in honor of one of our fan requests, we are dedicating this post to wet t-shirts. One interesting tidbit to remember when you bet this weekend…Dome teams are 4-1 all-time in conference championship games played on their home turf. The Vikings were the only casualty of that scenario when they lost to Atlanta, 30-27, as 10.5-point favorites in 1998. Be careful picking both underdogs.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

AFC Championship Game: NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-8) - First and foremost, this line is brutal. 7.5 - 8 points seems like the perfect line. We think the Colts will win but we love the value we can get with 8 points by taking the Jets and we do think the Jets have a chance to pull the major upset based on some of the finer points we list below. Betting is all about value so we really want you to understand this game before placing any bets. We are just going to throw out a bunch of points that we think matter.

- Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The two losses were the two they tanked to end the season.

- Bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

- Not sure the value in this stat but Peyton Manning is 7-5 lifetime against the Jets and has thrown 13 TDs with 13 INTs in the 12 games.

- In their first matchup, The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.

- In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

- The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

- In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in the playoffs this year.

- In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

- The Jets are 7-0 when Revis has a pick this year.

- The Jets defense was league best in the following categories this season: gave up 236 points, QBs completed 51.7% of their passes against the Jets, gave up 153.7 yards passing per game, game up 8 passing TDs all season and opposing QBs had a QB rating of 58.8 against the Jets. All we can say is WOW!

- The Colts offensive had the following highlights on the season: Threw the second most passes, had the most completions, threw for the second most passing yards with 282.2 yards per game, led the league in passing TDs, completed 66.9% of their passes and had a QB rating of 95.4.

- This line looks like a bit of a trap. The line opened at Colts -7.5 and is bouncing between -7.5 and -8. 61% of the money is on the Colts and we think with that type of action we would see this line trend upwards and it has not. Only 5Dimes has wild line swings right now and if you pick the right time you can get this line as low as -5.5 and as high as -9.5.

We love this line at Colts -8 for Jets bettors and would recommend taking the Colts at anything below 7 points. We typically try and bet underdogs to cover when we think they can win outright. We think the Jets have a slight chance of doing this, not as much as we usually like but we think 8 points provides too much value for a Championship game. With this being said, We are taking the Jets to cover!!! One last note to throw out there to make you more confident in our pick, the Colts are 0-5 straight up playing against the 3-4 Defense in their last 5 games. Take that to the bank!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - This might be a large mistake but we are not impressed with this Vikings team and we think they have some key injuries. Furthermore, the win against Dallas was not impressive at all. The Cowboys quit as soon as Suisham missed the 2nd FG (which was early). The Boys O is nowhere near as good as the Saints and the Boys were cutting them up until Romo became Romo and fumbled the ball 4 times in the 1st half. Brees will absolutely not make that mistake and he is locked in with 3 legit receivers and Shockey. The Vikes secondary is overrated and Winfield is 5′-10″. The Boys matched Roy Williams (6′4″) up against him and didn’t throw to him once. Brees will pick that match-up apart. Brees will 3 step drop and throw all game and the Vikes D line will get frustrated by not being able to get him. That was the formula the Panthers, Bears and Cards all used against the Vikes and it worked like a charm. The Boys are dumb because they watched no tape on it and Romo held the ball too long. Brees will eat that up. He is smart because he will take a 3 and out over forcing the ball any day of the week. Romo hasn’t figured that out yet. We think Reggie Bush will continue to be a force. Remember, Reggie is playing for a contract so it was not surprising to us to watch him run physically for the first time in his career. Coach Payton is not a moron like Jason Garrett and will definitely mix things up. The Super Dome will be insane and this stadium is special and getting more and more vibrant and relevant as a home field advantage as the playoffs move forward. The Vikes are clearly not as good on the road. Favre is due for a typical Favre 3 pick game. The Saints win over the Cards was way more impressive to me than the Vikes win over the Boys. The Saints dominated one of the best postseason QB’s in the league’s history and they made Fitzgerald a non-factor. I think the Saints will get up early and Favre will just start slinging the ball around. Peterson will be a non-factor and he hasn’t been good at all down the stretch. Plus, he fumbles like crazy. He had none against the Boys so we think he is due. So we bet you can sense where we are going with the smorgasbord of anti Vikings propaganda. If you thought this, you thought correct. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!

Minnesota Vikings

• Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Vikings are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
• Vikings are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Vikings are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions: The Weekend of the Underdog!

Well we went 2-0 on Saturday and 0-2 on Sunday in predicting the Wild Card games so we ride our two game losing streak into the divisional round. We went back to look at some of the data and found out some surprising results. The Divisional round pits the two best teams against the wild card followers and a lot of the betting experts are quick to point out that the home team wins most of the time. Well we beg to differ. Three of the four road teams in last year’s Divisional round won straight up and all three were 3-point underdogs or greater. Each of those games fell under the posted total with the dogs holding their opponents to 13, 11 and 10 points. Two years ago, both Sunday road team won outright and three years ago two road teams won. Since 2003, the road team has won outright 11 out of 24 times.  So this thinking is not rocket science but we are simply mentioning it to make you think. When we dig deeper into the games this weekend and crunch the numbers through our proprietary system, we came to the same conclusion in picking our winners….this is the weekend of the underdog!!!

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Arizona at New Orleans (-7) - This is one of the toughest games to call this weekend. The Cardinals got smoked by Green Bay in week 17 then race out to a huge lead in the Wild Card rematch, blow the lead, miss a game winning FG and then win by freak play in overtime. The New Orleans Saints have lost 3 in a row. Some would argue that they had home field wrapped up and therefore let up but the problems started the first week of December. The Saints smoked the Pats to end November and then barely got by Atlanta and Washington. Then they lost to Dallas at home and followed it up by losing to Tampa at home and then Carolina on the road. So there are two things to think about: 1) Will the real Cardinals team please stand up and will they play for 4 quarters 2) Were the Saints tanking it and if so can they come out blazing? The brilliance of betting with a line spread is we do not care who wins. Can the Cardinals win? Sure they can. Can the Saints win by 3 TDs? Sure they can. Here is what we do know. The Cardinals can score on anybody at any time. The Packers had the second rated defense in the league and Warner had more TD passes than incompletions (5 to 4). Just sick numbers. Are you willing to be against him? The Saints have been out rushed in 5 of the last 6 games and the one game they were not out rushed they had 6 more rushing yards than their opponent. Not impressive. The Cardinals actually rushed for 150+ yards against the Packers and their coaching staff knows the value of rushing in the playoffs. They learned the Pittsburgh way… Rush and play defense. And on top of the Pittsburgh way, the Cards have Kurt Warner at QB and are deep in the offensive skill areas. It does not even matter if Boldin plays. We are not sure New Orleans can simply turn the juice back on, come out firing on offense, pressure on defense and impose their will. If we had to pick the team that can do this right now it is Arizona and with that….We are betting Arizona to cover!! The line looks legit. Saints opened at -7 and it has remained pretty flat. Right now 60% of the money is on the Cardinals and we are seeing some line drops out there.

Arizona

• Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) - This is the one game we have been hemming and hawing about. The Ravens looked straight nasty last weekend against the Pats. Yes their QB was 4-10 for less than 40 yards, 34 to be exact, with one INT but they did not need him to win and that is scary. Ray Rice is on a tear and is earning elite status and a top 5 pick in fantasy football next season. So we have a hot Ravens team and that brings us to the Colts. A lot of times people forget the “loser” label that Peyton Manning used to have before he won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl gave him the pass. Here are some Peyton facts. Peyton has not won, We repeat has not won a playoff game following a first round bye. Jim Caldwell has tried to mix things up this week practicing first team O versus first team D but is that really enough? time will tell. Also, since the Colts won the Super Bowl, they have won zero playoff games. So how does this positive, hot Ravens team mesh with the “losing” label of the Colts. We need to look at their historical head to head matchups. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards in five straight versus Indianapolis while getting held to 3.3 per carry. Rice has 26 attempts for 94 yards in two meetings. The Ravens have committed 25 turnovers during their seven-game skid in the series and they’ve never won in four trips to Indianapolis, falling 31-3 last season. Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception while Flacco was picked off three times. Flacco, 15 of 29 for 136 yards over the last two weeks, is bothered by a hip injury that had him limping in practice this week. So when we combine the specific Colts versus Ravens matchup we definitely have to lean one way. We do not think the Ravens are capable of repeating their efforts of last week and a rested Colts team will come out blazing. This line is holding pretty flat at Colts -7 to -6.5. 69% of the money is on the Colts, which might smell trap. Watch to see where the money and line go as we get closer to kickoff. We are betting the Colts to win and cover!

Ravens

• Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
• Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Dallas at Minnesota (-3) - This will probably be one of the most viewed NFL games ever. Favre in the playoffs versus the Cowboys. Ratings City!!! A lot is being made of the Cowboys right now shaking the December and playoff bug. What is not being mentioned is how good the Cowboys are right now on both side of the ball and in the trenches. Just to recap the Cowboys 4 game winning streak and ATS winning streak….

1/9/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards.

1/3/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 24-0 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards (freaky coincidence - 142).

12/27/2010 - Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0 and out rush the Skins by 65 yards.

12/19/2010 - Cowboys win at New Orleans 24-17 and out rush the Saints by 80 yards.

Seeing a trend here? We are. Playoff football is won by rushing the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing awesome defense. The Cowboys are playing sick defense and doing it without blitzing. D Ware and A Spencer are locked and loaded and destroying O-linemen. The Cowboys are running at will and Romo is playing efficient, mistake free football. Winning playoff combinations. The Vikings have an equally impressive defense but Jared Allen has slowed the last month. Not saying he will not rise up for the Cowboys game but he has not continually dominated and improved game after game like the Cowboys men down the stretch. We also get nervous for Flozell Adams. He becomes “Mr. Jump offsides” when the crowd gets noisy. Also, the Viking’s O-line is not letting A-Pete run wild like he did in the beginning of the season. It has been a loooooong time sine #28 broke 100 yards rushing. This is largely a momentum play, but we are getting points. The head-to-head stats do not support our theory so buyer beware. This line looks pretty legit. The line opened at Vikes -3 and is bouncing back and forth to -2.5 with 55% of the money on the Cowboys. We are betting the Cowboys to cover!

Dallas

• Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in January.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.

NY Jets at San Diego (-8) - The Jets run game and defense are hot right now. Sanchez played exactly as a rookie QB needs to play in the playoffs and that is playing efficiently and playing not to lose. He was perfect last week and we look for more of the same this week. There is some danger in this game if you are a Chargers fan. The Chargers were not able to run the ball well this season and certainly will not be able to run on the Jets. If the Chargers can not run then they will be pass happy and that puts them in the way of the Jets blitzes and the Jets MVP, Mr. Revis. On the flip side, the Chargers D gave up 4.45 yards per rush and the Jets O rushed for 4.53 yards per carry. Now we are not predicting a Jets victory because we do not have to. We are here to make winning bets and 8 points are too many points for this battle. This line opened at Chargers -9 and is now down to -8 or -7.5 depending on the sports book. We are seeing 63% of the money on the Jets so we know this is a true line. We are betting the Jets to cover in this game!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

San Diego

• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
• Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Chargers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Chargers are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions: 4 Games, 4 Stories, 4 Toes and 4 Winners!

We love the NFL playoffs. We crushed them last season and we are taking our winning regular season record into the postseason. We are going to pick all 4 games for you and the trends are easy to spot. You do not stink it up the week before the playoffs against the same opponent and come out strong and you do not beat Tom Brady at home. We are mingling our picks with a Wild Card playoff salute to the Toe of the Camel. On with the picks…

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.

NY Jets

• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?

Eagles

• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.

Ravens

• Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

Week 17 Winning NFL Picks: The End of the Road!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - We threw in a loser last week and were 4-5 on the weekend. Our record now stands at 56-48-1. Nothing to get too excited about but it is a winning record. We are not going to pick games for Week 17. Who knows what kind of effort and players you will get this week. Better to avoid it and recoup for the playoffs next week.

Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:

Indy +8 at Buffalo

Saints +7 at Panthers

Jags +1.5 at Browns

Bears at Lions +3

Pats +7 at Texans

Steelers at Dolphins +3

Giants +9 at Vikes

49ers at Rams +8

Falcons at Bucs +1.5

Packers +3 at Cards

Chiefs +10 at Broncos

Ravens at Raiders +10.5

Skins +3 at Chargers

Titans at Seahawks +6

Eagles +3 at Cowboys

Bengals +9.5 at Jets

Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)

Week 16: Arizona Cardinals

Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets

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