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Week 12 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer’s Redemption Song!
Greetings and salutations to all. BSL here, back with another installation of my razor sharp SEC picks this year. Yours truly has had to make with the color commentary as of late because the picks themselves have been garbage. No, make that garbage with diarrhea on top of it. In any event, with each passing week comes a chance at sweet redemption and so, without further ado, I humbly present the following for your consideration:
Georgia (minus 10) at Auburn. Bulldogs are better than Auburn. Much, much better. Auburn is coming off an unimpressive victory over div. I-AA competition, which made it painfully clear that the AU Tigers are just trying to get the season over with as quickly as possible so they can start thinking about how to right the ship for next year. In all likelihood, their loss to Florida knocked Georgia out of the BCS picture, and was a major blow to the team psyche. Still, the Bulldogs pulled it together enough to win a nail-biter at Kentucky, and I think UGA wins this one by at least 2 TDs.
Ole Miss (minus 22.5) vs. UL-Monroe. Ole Miss has done very little in terms of winning by daylight this year, and they are playing a UL-M squad with a penchant for keeping things reasonably close. I think Ole Miss wins this one by 21 points, and since that’s less than 22.5, I’m taking UL-M in this one.
Florida (minus 22.5) vs. South Carolina. Follow this logic if you can: Ole Miss beats Florida, South Carolina beats Ole Miss, and now that South Carolina is playing Florida, the Gamecocks are 3-TD dogs. Apparently the transitive laws do not apply in the SEC, and quite frankly, in this case they shouldn’t. The Gators have been absolute world beaters since their loss to Ole Miss. They are, in my humble opinion, the best college football team in the universe right now. South Carolina, on the other hand has been taking care of business against lesser teams (but not blowing them out). Still, 22.5 points is an awful lot to give Spurrier and the Gamecock defense, and the Gators can’t blow everyone out for the rest of the year (can they?). I think Florida wins comfortably, but not by more than 20, so I’m going to play with the ‘Cocks.
Miss St. (minus 22) at Alabama. What’s the deal with the 22-point lines in the SEC this weekend? Jerry Seinfeld wants to know. I think Miss. State has stopped believing that they can win. Alabama, fresh off an OT scare at LSU last week, will be able to get their playmakers (namely, Julio Jones and Glen Coffee) into open space, and that means touchdowns. Also, Miss St may not score. I see this as a 31-0 type of job. So, take Bama to win and cover.
Troy (minus 17) at LSU. A battle of 6-3 teams, except one LSU’s losses have been to Alabama, Georgia and Florida, while Troy is a Sun Belt team that lost to UL-Monroe two weeks ago. All the wise guys are picking Troy in this one. Fuggetaboutit. LSU (it appears) has finally figured out how to play defense, and I think the Tigers roll in this one by at least 3 TDs. Take LSU to win and cover.
Vanderbilt (plus 4) at Kentucky. Vanderbilt was at 5 wins a month ago and they still are. Somewhere along the way, they lost their direction and belief that they can win. Meanwhile, Kentucky has looked pretty decent these last few games and is playing for a fairly respectable bowl game. I like the Wildcats to win by a comfortable margin in this one. Take UK.
And those are the picks, folks. Thanks again to Runny, Flash and everyone at the Syndicate for sticking with me, and good luck to everybody this weekend.
BSL
Week 11 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer Lives to Pick Again!
Georgia (minus 12) at Kentucky — After being thoroughly humbled by the Gators last weekend, the Dawgs are left to pick up the pieces and try to stay positive for the remainder of a season for which they started as the number 1 ranked team in the land. Kentucky is suspect offensively, and simple does not have the weapons for this fight. Richt is a heck of a coach and will have his boys primed to rebound against a team that gave up 63 to Florida. I love Georgia to cover.
Arkansas (plus 13) at South Carolina — After getting beat down by Florida, Arkansas has been competitive in four straight games, including last week’s “upset” (if you can ever truly call an SEC team betting a Conference USA team an “upset”) of Tulsa. You may say that they’ve turned the corner under first year coach Booby Petrino. I say that they’re due for an off game and South Carolina shows up for this one at home. I’m taking the Gamecocks to win by a bunch.
Wyoming (plus 26.5) at Tennessee — The 114th ranked team in total offense (UT) brings the noise against the 111th ranked team in that category, each with lame duck coaches and a fan base that mailed it in for this season weeks ago. Yawn. The Vols rally around coach Fulmer and win by 40.
Florida (minus 24) at Vanderbilt — 24 points is an awful lot to give a team that has only given up 24 points to 1 opponent (Georgia) and outside of that game hasn’t been beaten by more than 3 points. Florida has been blowing people out of the water and is clicking on all cylinders though. Tough call. I’ll take Vandy and the points.
Alabama (minus 3) at LSU – A word about LSU’s predilection towards giving up interceptions returned for touchdowns this year. There are many bad things that can happen to a team in a football game. However, I humbly submit that no play provides the kind of emotionally-deflating, game-changing, hard-charging kick in the crotch that giving up a pick-6 does. Fortunately for most fans, pick-6’s happen so rarely for their team that it’s hardly worth focusing on. Maybe it’s once a season, if at all. Unfortunately, that is not the case for fans of the LSU Tigers this year. Indeed, LSU’s starting quarterback for this weekend’s matchup against Alabama, redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, has to date thrown 10 interceptions, 5 of which have been returned for touchdowns. Think about it: 5 INT returns for touchdown. Yes, that is the most in any QB’s career in over 115 years of LSU football — AND HE’S ONLY HALFWAY THROUGH HIS FRESHMAN YEAR!!! AND HE DIDN’T START UNTIL THE FOURTH GAME!!! AND HE’S IN A TWO QUARTERBACK SYSTEM!!!!! Hopefully, LSU has spent this week teaching every offensive player that, if the pass is not coming to them, they need to be sprinting back towards their own endzone the second the ball leaves Lee’s hands. Hopefully, one of them will be able to make the touchdown-saving tackle that has heretofore been totally fucking absent this season.
In any event, this column is about the game, and it could be a good one. A lot of factors point to LSU in this game. Throw out the Georgia game and Alabama has beaten exactly two teams with a winning record this season (Ole Miss and Kentucky) by an average of 3.5 points. The number 1 spot is a heavy burden for a young team like Alabama that is not used to the spotlight, even for a team that is guided by Saban’s laserbeam focus on the next game. LSU has played two quality teams and has absolutely crapped the bed in both games. Sure, the LSU nation will be on an emotional high for Saban’s return to Baton Rouge as the coach of a rival team, not just in their conference, but in their own division. Sure, LSU is loaded with talent and due to show up sooner or later. However, I just can’t see LSU getting up to win this one. Alabama is just a better coached team than LSU is right now, especially defensively. It is clear to everyone that Miles will not be inclined to take big risks throwing the ball early on with a redshirt freshman QB with a history of blow-ups (see the above paragraph). Saban can defensively gameplan better than anyone in the nation and he already has by far the best rush defense in the SEC. LSU will be looking for easy plays to start — handing it to Charles Scott with maybe a couple of bubble screens and short passes to their TE (Richard Dickson). If I know this, then Saban definitely knows this and will be ready for it. My pick is Alabama to win and cover.
Your truly,
Backwoods Southern Lawyer
Week 9 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer Busts Out!!!
Hey everybody. BSL here with another round of SEC picks for those with the testicular fortitude to let your hard earned dollars ride on the games we all know and love. If you’re not fired up for this weekend’s slate of matchups, then you are not a fan of the game. It just doesn’t get any better. My beloved SEC took another hit to its reputation when Auburn lost to West Virginia last night. Add the Tennessee-UCLA debacle and a couple of other choice missteps, and you have a solid case that the SEC has yielded its place as the nation’s top conference to the Big-12. Not that yours truly subscribes to that notion; I’m just saying that one could reasonably argue that point if there were so inclined. In any event, as Mr. Miyagi once told me, when it comes to top conference it’s best not to declare a winner before the season is over. I’m thinking that the SEC’s stock will continue to rise vis-à-vis the Big-12’s from here on out, but then again, I am a flaming SEC homer. On another point, I note that the syndicate is finally rounding back into shape. That’s my boys. Look for more good things to come.
Here are the picks:
TAKE TENNESSEE (plus 5) vs. ALABAMA - How is Tennessee only a 5-point underdog here? Great question. The Vols have been disrespected eight ways to Sunday this year and are fighting mad. They are going to be sky high for this game is Knoxville and Alabama is due for a loss. Vegas knows what’s up. I think Tennessee wins this one outright.
TAKE KENTUCKY (plus 25) at FLORIDA - Kentucky is average, but not awful. Sure, the Gators could get all fired up and do to Kentucky what they did to LSU, but I really don’t see that happening. This one will likely never be in doubt, but I could see Kentucky’s defense keeping Florida to a modest number of points and UK being about to put up about 14-20 points themselves.
TAKE LSU (minus 1) vs. GEORGIA - Tigers/Bulldogs should be a good one. Both teams need this one badly. Georgia has more impressive stats, but LSU probably has more talent on both sides of the ball. I think LSU wins this game at the line of scrimmage. Look for a strong defensive effort from LSU and a low scoring affair. Also, when LSU has the refs in their pocket, good things happen. Check out this video from the LSU/USC game if you missed it last week. And yes this video is real.
TAKE OLE MISS (minus 6.5) at ARKANSAS - Ole Miss is clearly the more talented team, and while it is undeniable that the Hogs are getting much, much better week by week, I’ve got to think that Coach Nutt will have his boys ready to play for his first return trip to Fayetteville.
Sincerely,
BSL, Esquire
Week 8 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer is back after a winning weekend!
Sorry for the late post — this week the BSL was fighting for his life in front of a know-nothing judge who I’m sure doesn’t like SEC football (not that yours truly had the chance to ask His Honor that in open court, but I just get that feeling from the way he continually raised his voice when overruling my objections and then lowered it to read the jury verdict in my favor — BOO–YOW!!!!).
Anyway, there are two components to making money when wagering on sports. One is picking winners (something I’ve been able to do fairly consistently within the SEC). The other, equally important, aspect is knowing how to bet (which is something that I have a proven history of absolutely sucking at). Take last weekend for example: I pick more winners than losers, but get blanked at the ticket windows because I loaded up on my Miss St - LSU money line parlay, which was only half right (meaning it was all wrong). So, to hell with the telling folks how to wager. If you want to make money, take a proven system like RPJ and bet in equal units. You may go up and down, but in the end it will be more of the former and less of the latter. Now, for those of you who want the BSL’s take on this week’s SEC action, read on.
TAKE VANDY (plus 14.5) AT GEORGIA — This is a tough one. Georgia is due for a blow out, and Vandy’s glass slipper has a crack or two after last week’s loss at Miss St. However, there is no denying the Vandy is a decent team, and Georgia has not been blowing teams out of the water. Add the fact that Vandy and Georgia’s last two games have been decided by a total of 5 points, and I think you have the makings of a moderately close game here.
TAKE OLE MISS (plus 11.5) AT ALABAMA — I like this pick. The last 3 times these teams have played, Bama has won by a field goal. I’ve previously praised Coach Nutt’s ability to put Ole Miss in a position to win big games, and he proved me right with the big one over Florida. Alabama is like Drago in Rock IV. They are only human; if you cut them, they bleed just like the rest of us. Look for a 7-10 point game.
TAKE KENTUCKY (minus 7) VS. ARKANSAS — I don’t care that they beat Auburn. Arkansas is not a good football team, and one week doesn’t change that. Kentucky isn’t so hot either, but they’ve got the defense to hold the Hogs in check and enough offense to cover 8 points. I like the Wildcats to win by double digits.
TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA (plus 2.5) VS. LSU — I never would’ve picked this game this way before I saw the LSU-Florida game. Florida exposed LSU as one of this season’s pretender teams. LSU’s defense (which it rode to both of its recent national championships) is highly suspect. Never in history has a defense with so much talent performed so poorly (note to Les Miles — your dual defensive coordinator scheme isn’t working). South Carolina has turned their season around and will be fired up to play this game at home. I like their chances to win outright.
TAKE MISS STATE (plus 7.5) at TENNESSEE — Mississippi State is not that bad. I think they really started getting things together after the Georgia Tech game where they got their asses handed to them. This year’s Tennessee team has an palpable absence of character and leadership. For some reason, I put Tennessee and Clemson in the same boat this year. Sometimes, you just don’t have that mojo that makes average teams good and good teams great. The Vols are barely average, and I like Miss St to keep this one close, if not win it outright.
So there you have it. Again, a big tip of the hat to the gents at the Syndicate; keep up the good work boys. Good luck to everybody this weekend.
Sincerely,
BSL - Backwoods Southern Lawyer
Week 7 NCAA Free Football Picks (10/11/2008): - The Backwoods Southern Lawyer Picks SEC Winners
BSL here. My picks for the last two weeks have gone off about as well as my last deposition.
After another crap-the-sheets, 2-2 performance last week, I’m hovering just above .500 and ready to make something happen. I just so happen to have a 5-star, blistering hot, balls deep mortal lock for this weekend, which I absolutely love: take LSU and Miss St. on a money line parlay and laugh all the way to the bank.
LSU (plus 6) at FLORIDA. In case you’ve missed it, the news in: Florida is just not that great of a football team. I’ve felt uneasy about this Gator squad all year; something is just not right in Gainesville. They were 9-4 last year and will end up near that mark again this year. LSU is simply better on both sides of the ball and will win this one outright (perhaps by double digits). LSU, by the way, will win (or at least come awfully close to winning) the national championship this year.
MISS. STATE (plus 3) vs. VANDERBILT. When it comes to Vanderbilt, I’m the jerk at the table with a stack of black on the “Don’t Come” line. With the exception of the Ga Tech game, MSU has been performing better each week and is sitting on a big effort. MSU’s new QB is sitting on a big effort, and Vandy will bounce after last week’s emotional upset of Auburn. Also, all of the fan money is on Vandy, which makes me feel great about the Bulldogs. MSU wins this one outright.
This is your cure for the looming financial crisis. I feel very strongly about this play. $100 wins you $550. Add a zero to those figures and you’ve got Sizzler money. Cha-ching.
The only play I’m making this weekend is what you see above. However, for those of you of with enquiring minds, here are my other SEC picks for this weekend
TAKE GEORGIA (minus 13) vs. TENNESSEE. Georgia is a good football team, and Tennessee is a very bad football team.
TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA (-1.5) AT KENTUCKY. Another tough call. Both have great defenses. After Smelly’s big week last time out, I give South Carolina the edge on offense.
TAKE ARKANSAS (plus 18.5) AT AUBURN. There are very few teams that Auburn is capable of beating by 19 points, and none of those teams is in the SEC. Arkansas hung with Florida for three and a half quarters last Saturday and is certainly getting tired of having their ass handed to them on a weekly basis. Now they can their offense coorfdinator. Please. Tubberville never bought into Tony Frankin’s spread offense and really never gave it a chance. I blame Tuberville for failing to commit to an offense he bought into when he brought Franklin on board. Random Prediction: Petrino leaves Arkansas in disgrace within 3 years (possibly 4).
Thanks to the boys at RPJ for giving me a place to spew my SEC venom. The website looks great.
Yours Truly,
Backwoods Southern Lawyer