Aaron Corp

Free NCAA Week 3 Picks: Jump on the Suck Factor!!!

Posted by Flash Flash for the Cash
September 18, 2009

RPJ is sitting here at 12-15, were 7-6 last weekend and are sitting here waiting for the results on the Boise State/Fresno State game. We have not been able to get off to a rolling start yet this year in either NFL or NCAA. I (Flash Flash) am going to call it the curse of Runny Pelvis. As I mentioned in the Boise piece, Runny is out of the country. In his place stands Backwoods Southern Lawyer and we are putting our brains together to crush it this weekend. You will notice the heavy SEC influence.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Introducing the Suck Factor strategy - There are always going to be teams that are flat out terrible and no matter where Vegas sets the line, these teams almost know how bad they need to suck so they do not cover. We have started to identify some of these teams and we plan on betting heavily against them.

Ball State (+7) at Army – If there’s one team in the nation that we would take Army and give 7 points to, it’s Ball State. Ball State is simply terrible. Not as bad as some of the truly putrid teams we are identifying this week but terrible nonetheless. This is not the Nate Davis led Ball State team of last year. Ball State lost to New Hampshire and North Texas at home as favorites. Yes you read that correctly. Ball State’s QB is completing 44% of his passes. Ball State registers a 9 on the RPJ Suck Factor. We love Army!!!

Ball State

Army
  • Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Black Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
SMU at Washington State (+6) - This is a suck factor game and Washington State is beyond sucking. Washington State has been blown out by Stanford and Hawaii who are not exactly college power houses. Washington State is yet to cover and we do not see them covering here. And would you really bet against a QB named Bo Levi Mitchell? We won’t! Also, we would love to see the last time SMU was favored on the road. Unreal. The curse of Ryan Leaf lives on!!! We are taking SMU to win and cover!!!
SMU
  • Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Washington State
  • Cougars are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Cougars are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cougars are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
  • Cougars are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
  • Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
  • Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
  • Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
  • Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cougars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Miami (Ohio) at Western Michigan (-16.5) - This game wins the battle of the suckfests this week. Miami(Ohio) has not scored this season, their QBs are completing passes at a 50% clip, they have thrown 6 INTs and they have been outscored 90 - 0 against Boise State and Kentucky. Western Michigan wins and covers on principle alone!!!
Miami (Ohio)
  • Redhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
  • Redhawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
  • Redhawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Redhawks are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Redhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
  • Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
  • Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Special SEC Coverage - In honor of Backwoods Southern Lawyer’s re-appearance in our picks we are going to put some specific emphasis on SEC games this week and probably the next three weeks. BSL is the man and hopefully he has gotten rid of his first season jitters and is ready to pick us some winners!!!
Tennessee at Florida (-29.5) - As much as we want to analyze this game, we are not breaking a rule from our NCAA preview piece. We said we would take Florida no matter what the spread and this game meets another one of our tests, although on the slimmest of margins, of notbetting games where the line is more than 30 points. We made money on last year’s Urban Meyer revenge game against Georgia and this is the game we circled this year. Here is our analysis…..1) revenge game 2) Tennessee lost at home to UCLgAy 3) Florida is the best team in the nation at present. Got it. We are taking Florida to win and cover by this ridiculous margin!!!
Tennessee
  • Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
  • Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
  • Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
  • Volunteers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Volunteers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Volunteers are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Florida
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Gators are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
  • Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
  • Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Gators are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.
  • Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Gators are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
  • Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Gators are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
  • Gators are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
Head-to-Head
  • Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Florida.
  • Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Mississippi State (+9) at Vanderbilt – Vandy has several players out and is a little beaten up after tangling with LSU last weekend. Vandy has a legit dual-threat QB, but he’s got nearly zero talent around him (as several dropped passes a game will attest). Miss St will get progressively better throughout the season as the players buy in to Dan Mullen’s system. I think MSU’s defense rises to the challenge after giving up a bunch of points to Auburn last week. This is likely to be a one score game at the buzzer. We are taking Miss State to cover!

Mississippi State

  • Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on turf.
Vandy
  • Commodores are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Commodores are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
  • Commodores are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite.
  • Commodores are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Head-to-Head
  • Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

UL Lafayette (+26.5) at LSU – LSU is 1-11 (and 0 for their last 7) ATS in their last 12 at home, and it’s time for that streak to end. BSL has ridden this team to the brink of economic collapse and this is where it pays off. UL-L is due for a letdown coming off of an emotional last minute win over Kansas State, UL-L’s second win over a BCS-conf school (last one was Texas A &M in 1996). Yes, UL-L is better than usual, but they are still UL-L. In 21 games against the Tigers, UL-L has scored a total of ….wait for it…22 points. Meanwhile, LSU’s offense has a big time chip on their should after turning in sub-par performances against UW and Vanderbilt and hearing all week that they don’t throw deep enough. LSU will throw deep in this one. True freshman phenom Russell Sheppard will find the endzone (maybe more than once), and LSU will roll big time. The ATS numbers are not going to be reflective on how this game plays out. We are  taking the Tigers in a big way.

RPJ $yndicate Picks of the Week
Duke at Kansas (-23) - Duke does not register as high on the Suck factor as Ball State did but they are still not a good team. Kansas is licking their chomps and loves stomping inferior opponents. We hit a nice cover last week when Kansas beat up on UTEP on the road. Duke did respond from their loss to Richmond, yes the 1-AA Richmond, and beat Army last week. Yes the same Army we are picking to beat Ball State. Some have accused us of always picking Kansas so we can put in pictures of Coach Mangino and they might be right. However, we do love us some Todd Reesing. Kansas will win this game easily and cover!!!
Duke
  • Blue Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Kansas
  • Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
  • Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
  • Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Jayhawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
  • Jayhawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Jayhawks are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
  • Jayhawks are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. win.
  • Jayhawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
  • Jayhawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
  • Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in September.
  • Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
  • Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
  • Jayhawks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Ohio State at Toledo (+21) - This game is going to be a fun game. Toledo crushed Colorado and that is a nice feat for a MAC school. Ohio State could be 0-2. They did not look good against Navy, did not look good on offense against USC and really do not have a great identity right now. Going to Toledo, to play an explosive Toledo team is a potential recipe for disaster. Jim Tressel should try and toughen up his team and pound pound pound the run but all Ohio State fans know that the Tressel way is a bit of a mystery. The Ohio State offense seems simple and not dynamic and Pryor still does not appear comfortable. 21 points is a lot in this game and we are going to ride Toledo. Not sure if Toledo can win but we are taking them to cover!!!
Ohio State
  • Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
  • Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Toledo
  • Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Nebraska at Virginia Tech (-4.5) - The Hokies responded nicely last week against Marshall after their crushing defeat at the hands of Alabama, a game they had in hand in the 4th quarter and blew. Nebraska is 2-0 and 2-0 ATS but has not really tested themselves yet this year. We almost feel like a team that travels from the Midwest to Blacksburg should just walk in the door and give up 7 points so that makes this line attractive. Virginia Tech came out and pounded the run last week to the tune of a 318 yard margin of difference. Bo Pelini knows how to coach defense so this game will probably be close for a half and even three quarters but in the end the most physical team will win and that is the home team. We are taking Virginia Tech to win and cover!!
Nebraska
  • Cornhuskers are 19-43-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
  • Cornhuskers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Cornhuskers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
  • Cornhuskers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
  • Cornhuskers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
  • Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Virginia Tech
  • Hokies are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Hokies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
  • Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
  • Hokies are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Hokies are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Southern California (-20) at Washington - What can we say, we love the Huskies in this one. With Jake Locker and RB Chris Polk healthy, U-Dub is a MUCH better team than people think. USC is coming off of a huge game far away and is awfully likely to be flat footed, and Locker (a running QB with an above average arm) is a tough guy to gameplan for. Everyone knows this is a trap game, even Pete Carroll. Pete has attempted to shake things up this week by reliving the Oregon State game last year and we just do not know if it will work. Pete even mentioned Washington while still in Columbus. Caesar needed to mix it up because USC has flat out lost its last two games following the “Big Game”. Also, super frosh Matt Barkley has not practiced much this week and we are not convinced Aaron Corp is 100% healthy. Could lead to a slow start for the Trojans. Meanwhile, Washington has had this game circled on its calendar ever since Sark, Holt and company came to town and will have the Trojans scouted down to their jockstraps. The only thing stopping me from making Washington BSL’s five-star lock of the week is the fact that Vegas set the line at -23 and the betting public has brought it down to -20. If our years of experience in this business have taught usanything it’s that Vegas is usually right and the betting public is usually wrong. Logic wins out in this one because you know Flash Flash is the biggest USC homer out there. Washington has covered three of the last 4 also. We think USC wins a tight one but Washington pulls the cover!!!
USC
  • Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
  • Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
  • Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Washington
Numbers are not relevant this week!
Head - To - Head
  • Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Navy at Pitt (-7) - We know Navy is capable of a lot this season because of their OL. They put one hell of a scare into Ohio State. However, this Pitt team is solid and spanked Navy last season on the road. We think this spread should be more than 10 points and are happy to see it in the 7 point range. An early season anomaly we plan on taking advantage of. We are taking PITT to win and Cover!!!
Navy
  • Midshipmen are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
PITT
  • Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Florida State (+7.5) at BYU – In the best matchup this weekend that no one knows about, BYU hosts the Seminoles after beating the Sooners in Norman and brutalizing Toolame in New Orleans. FSU meanwhile was clearly still reeling from the tough opening loss to Miami when they didn’t put more than 7 points on the board until the 59th minute of play against I-AA Jacksonville State. This is a gut-check game for FSU, and one that they are taking very seriously. No doubt their OC Jimbo Fisher is taking it seriously after getting embarrassed last week. The betting public loves BYU in this one and that makes us nervous but we think it is justified. BYU has the cards lined up for this season and they know it. The pressure will not be on yet like it will be when TCU and Utah come to play at BYU but BYU is lining up for a potential BCS game and potentially a title game showing. BYU will have no trouble with FSU. Take BYU to win and cover!!!
Florida State
  • Seminoles are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
  • Seminoles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
BYU
  • Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
  • Cougars are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cougars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cougars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Flash Flash and BSL
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