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NCAA Football Week 5 Free Picks: If September is any indication, October will be AWESOME!!!

Last week turned into one big clown show; both for NCAA power rankings and for our bets. We had some games dead on like Iowa and the ones we were wrong on we were way wrong like Cal. We did warn of the Tedford turd sandwich we just did not think it would be his largest turd sandwich ever. On the BCS front, Houston looks great, Florida State is done, Ole Miss done, Cal done, Miami done. We love it. Every week that goes by like this the closer we will get to a playoff system. The Flash Flash/Backwoods Southern Lawyer approach has not slayed it yet and Runny will be back soon to get us back on track. We also look forward to our statistical models rolling out in the coming weeks. Lots of picks this week. We pick the winners in the big games (USC-CAL) and we continue to hammer some of the biggest losers (think Miami-Ohio).

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Also, If you look at the top right of our Home Page tab, we have tabs for you to click to join us on Facebook as well as on Twitter. We are all over the social media crapola right now. Last but certainly not least, we would love it if you opened a Bodog account through our website by clicking one of the banner ads. Granted our picks have not filled the bank accounts by any means but we are offering these picks out of the goodness of our hearts and providing you with great content. We have full faith our picks are on the verge of turning around, especially when we crank out our statistical models which will be any day now. If you think we are a bunch of clowns then don’t do a thing. Well maybe click an ad here or there on our website. Ha ha. On with the picks….

Friday, October 2, 2009

Utah State at BYU (-23.5) - Well we are back on the BYU bandwagon. Besides the FSU debacle, BYU has covered in each game. Utah State has done a good job as 20 point underdogs and covered against Texas A&M and Utah. Both games were set at 20.5 points. The home team in this series is 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings and BYU is certainly no cupcake place to play. Max Hall and Co. will run up the score early and ram it down The Aggies throats late. Besides the ATS head-to-head numbers the other ATS numbers scream Aggies. This might be the last time we bet BYU this season if they lose because we are expecting a game of 38-7 or 56-10 or something along those lines. Utah State has the 117th ranked defense in the country and only has 2 sacks. No pressure on Max Hall = bad results. Utah State actually has the 9th rated offense in the nation, which blows our minds because they have a 22.5% offensive 3rd down success rate. BYU wins and covers!!

Saturday October 3, 2009

Wisconsin at Minnesota (-2.5) - Totally surprised to see Minnesota favored in this one. Wisconsin actually has some nice, hard fought victories against the likes of Michigan State, Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Minnesota is enjoying their new stadium but really do not have as impressive a run going. These teams look identical on defense with Wisconsin holding a slight edge where it matters. The largest difference is on offense. Wisconsin is significantly better at running the ball and converting third downs. That formula leads to better ball control and the ability to wear down a defense. We also like the fact that the Badgers are 5-2 heads up ATS in their last seven against Minnesota. We are betting Wisconsin to win, cover and Golden Shower the Golden Gophers!

Wisconsin

• Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Badgers are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Badgers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
• Badgers are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Badgers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
• Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
• Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Alabama (-15.5) at Kentucky - Does this really need any sort of analysis? See Kentucky at home against Florida -21 and now you have Kentucky at home against Alabama -15.5. Kentucky is just not that good. Where is the media now talking up the SEC? Kentucky might not be able to beat anybody this season in conference. What we do love is that Kentucky is shaking up the BCS in their own way by knocking out Tim Tebow. Just remember what happened to Penn State’s QB last year after he got a concussion…PSU lost to Iowa the next week. The Gator’s showdown in Baton Rouge next week will be awesome. Those Alabama fans who worried that Greg McElroy would have a hard time replacing John Parker Wilson stopped worrying Sept. 5. McElroy is third nationally in pass efficiency and might be throwing it better than Wilson ever did. We like Alabama to pound on Kentucky and cover easily!!!

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Alabama

• Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
• Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
• Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
• Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

• Wildcats are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Wildcats are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
• Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
• Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
• Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cincinnati (-27.5) at Miami (Ohio) - Time to jump on the Cincy bandwagon and no matter what we are going to bet against Miami-Ohio every time it makes sense. Cincy has solid wins at Rutgers and Oregon State. Oregon State is incredibly impressive because it is nasty heading up to Corvallis. Miami-Ohio just might be the worst team in the country and they have not been favored in any game this season. On top of that they are 0-4 ATS this season. 27.5 points is a lot to get by but Cincy blew these guys out last year by a score of 45-20 and Miami-Ohio is significantly worse this year. Tony Pike is the man. Jump on the Cincy bandwagon while you can! We like Cincy to cover and win easily!!!!

• Bearcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Bearcats are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
• Bearcats are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Miami-Ohio

• Redhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
• Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
• Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
• Redhawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
• Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Redhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
• Redhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Redhawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Redhawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Redhawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Tulane at Army (-6.5) - This is the BSL special. BSL is from Baton Rouge and loves picking on Toolame. We hit nice wins against them earlier in the season when they had swine flu and could not cover against Tulsa and BYU. Time to dump on them again. It is 1,350 miles from New Orleans to West Point and that is asking a lot to go play against a rowdy, disciplined Army team. Army takes care of business just like they did 44-13 on the road last season. No contest. We are betting Army to win and cover!!!

Tulane

• Green Wave are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Green Wave are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Green Wave are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Green Wave are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
• Green Wave are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Green Wave are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Green Wave are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
• Green Wave are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Green Wave are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

LSU at Georgia (-2.5) - I could not get BSL to take credit for this bet because it makes him sick as a Tigers fan. This is classic SEC brutal scheduling. LSU travels to Georgia the week before they host Florida and focus will be spotty. Georgia is actually running a 3 game winning streak against LSU and the games have been ugly. Neither of these teams have helped bettors this year. LSU has one cover and it was against UL-Lafayette and Georgia has one cover and it was at Arkansas. These teams look like mirror images of each other on defense. LSU is sporting a weak offense and is ranked 105th in the country but Georgia’s numbers are not that much better. With a spread under -3 for the home field advantage we will take Georgia all day long. There is a reason the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We are betting Georgia to win and cover!!!

LSU

• Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Tigers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Tigers are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Tigers are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 conference games.
• Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• Tigers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
• Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Penn State (-6.5) at Illinois - Big rebound game for Penn State. Illinois showed who they are this year and that is a bad team. See games against Missouri and Ohio State. Joe Pa will have the Nittany Lions ready to play and rebound from their second half break down against Iowa last week. Both teams are O-fer ATS this season but we think the Iowa game provided Penn State with the necessary wake up call. Look for big things from the Penn State offense. We are betting Penn State to win and cover!!!

Penn State

• Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
• Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
• Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

• Fighting Illini are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. loss.
• Fighting Illini are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
• Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Fighting Illini are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
• Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
• Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Fighting Illini are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Head-to-Head

• Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Illinois.
• Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Ohio State (-17.5) at Indiana - It is that time of year again. Ohio State rolls through the Big Ten bringing sports bettors along for a great ride. Yes Indiana gave Michigan a run for its money but we do not know anything about Michigan yet but the fact that their defense is suspect and everyone loves Forcier. What do we know about Ohio State? Tressel and the Buckeyes roll through the Big Ten every year. Maybe they slip up once but maybe they don’t. They certainly will not slip against Indiana. Ohio State is on fire, posting back to back shutouts. Look at the Head-to-Head ATS numbers and you will get on board. We love and are betting Ohio State to win and cover!!!

Ohio State

• Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Buckeyes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite.
• Buckeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
• Buckeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
• Buckeyes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
• Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
• Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Buckeyes are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Buckeyes are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Tulsa (-15.5) at Rice - Tulsa has an offense and Rice stinks. We loaded up on Tulsa against Toolame and we look to capitalize some more on the Golden Hurricanes. We might just pick Tulsa so we can make more Golden Shower references but that will be up to you to decide. We are betting Tulsa to win, cover and Golden Hurricane (extreme golden shower)!!!

Tulsa

• Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
• Golden Hurricane are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
• Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Golden Hurricane are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Golden Hurricane are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

USC (-5) at Cal - This is another painful one to put in the books but we have to be realistic. The only reason USC is favored is because of the historic USC, not this season’s USC and because CAL was thumped by Oregon last weekend. Stafon Johnson just went out for this game due to a freak weight lifting accident and Matt Barkley is still banged up. USC is decimated. They lost more guys to injury on defense last week against Washington State, Stafon will be out, RoJo is out, Taylor Mays is banged up. This USC is too beat up. Also, USC’s offense is anemic and a CAL team at home will score points, even on USC’s defense. If they score 20 points it just might be enough. Yes USC has the 6th rated defense in the country but Cal is not too shabby. They are giving up less than 3 yards per rush on defense and have 14 sacks so they might be able to get to Barkley more than other teams have. Here is the truly frightening stat; USC only converts 25% of their 3rd down opportunities on offense. That is horrific. Cal for example is up at 43%. This might very well be the difference. We would not be surprised to see a game much like we saw in USC at Ohio State. USC’s defense will play awesome and keep the team in the game until the offense comes through or does not come through. We think Cal will win a close one but even if USC wins it will not be by more than a FG. We are taking Cal to cover!!!

We love that we finally have a picture of a big turd sandwich for Tedford!!!

USC

• Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• Trojans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
• Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

California

• Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Golden Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Golden Bears are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on turf.
• Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Golden Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Golden Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Golden Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
• Golden Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Golden Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Virginia Tech (-17) at Duke - Va Tech started at +15.5 and is now up to +17.  Va Tech coming off their game of the year after dominating Miami.  Duke with nothing to lose….nothing but the game we guess, but we think they do that by less than 2 tds. We are betting Duke to cover!!!

Va Tech

• Hokies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.

Next up: The Miss Idaho Game!!!

Colorado St. (-3) at Idaho - Both teams are fairly decent (for loser teams from loser conferences).  Both are 3-1, with loses coming by way of identical 42-23 scores.  Difference is that Colorado St. lost to BYU and Idaho lost to Washington.  Most importantly, the line started out higher and is falling.  Obviously, the betting public loves the Vandals.  We are betting Colorado State to win and Cover this one easily!!!

Colorado State

• Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. WAC.

• Vandals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Washington at Notre Dame (-13.5) - It has been too long since we found a reason to bet against Notre Dame. ND is banged up on offense and has not shown a defense this season. Washington is now definitely over their win over USC after Stanford beat them and out-toughed them. Nick Holt will not let that happen again this season. We do not think Notre Dame can blow anybody out but Nevada. Notre Dame has shown that they have the same talent level as the Big Ten and no more. They easily should have lost to Michigan State and Purdue and then would be sitting on one win. ND is not good but the public does not know it yet. Washington will be fired up to get their first win ever against Notre Dame. We think Washington covers and if you have some extra scratch, take the money line!!!

Houston (-14.5) at UTEP -Houston is undefeated ATS this season and rolling through their schedule taking down Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. This team is good and Case Keenum is awesome. Yes, Houston’s defense is ranked 97th but UTEP’s is ranked 109th. The difference here, Houston has the 2nd rated offense and UTEP is dead last at 120th. Houston wins this by 30 points as Keenum pads his Heisman stats. We are betting heavy on Houston to win and cover!!!

Coach Sumlin has bettors happy this season!!!!

Houston

• Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

All Hail Case Keenum!!!

2009 NCAA Football Kick Off: Free Week 1 Picks: Cowboys, Ducks and Trojans Oh My!!!

Thursday, September 3, 2009

South Carolina at N.C. State (-4.5 and O/U 46.5) - Super Soph Russell Wilson leads the Wolfpack at Home against Suppier’s Cocks. Wilson had an amazing Freshman season last year for the Wolfpack while Stephen Garcia was up-and-down and got himself into trouble off the field. No doubt Garcia has the talent to be a good QB, but he has no head on his shoulders whatsoever. Not good for big games. The Wolfpack wants this game more than the Cocks. Love them at home to cover on national TV. We just wanted to see how many times we could say Cocks in one past. Take the Wolfpack -4.5.

USC

• Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

• Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Wolfpack are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Utah State at Utah (-20.5 and O/U 52) - Game will not be close. Utah is off their HUGE Bowl win over ‘Bama. In-state rivals where one team has a massive talent advantage. Yes Utah is working in a new QB but it just won’t matter. Utah will beat them by more 3 TDs. Take the Utes and give the points.

Utah State

• Aggies are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games.
• Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
• Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

• Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Utes are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Utes are 20-6-3 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Utes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
• Utes are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games.
• Utes are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Aggies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Be afraid of our menacing mascot!!!! Yeah right

Oregon at Boise State (-4 and O/U 63.5) - Love this matchup. This game is one of the reasons why college football is so freakin’ great. So much rides on this game for both teams and it is on national TV on opening night!!!! The NCAA is extremely smart sometimes (but any sense they have goes out the door with not having a playoff). Oregon has a lot of hype coming into the season and it is legit. They probably have the best backfield in all of college football. Their D is STACKED and they have an extrememly dangerous QB. The Broncos are completely flying under the radar, but they have a QB who is on the verge of greatness and playing on the blue turf at home gives them a HUGE advantage. Boise beat Oregon outright last year in Eugene early in the season, which would lead you to think giving 4 points is a steal. Last but certainly not least, this is a true line. The line opened at BSU -6, is now down to BSU-4 and people keep hammering it. 91% of the moneyline is on Oregon and 74% of the point spread action is on Oregon. This line is moving for the right reasons. Take Oregon this time and give the points.

Oregon

• Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. WAC.
• Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
• Ducks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in September.
• Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ducks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on turf.
• Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

• Broncos are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• Broncos are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-10.
• Broncos are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.
• Broncos are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Tulsa at Tulane (+13.5 and O/U 64.5) - Call this the swine flu game. Tulane is battered with illness right now and we do not see them coming to this game at 100%. They will need to be able to match up with the high powered Tulsa offense if they want to compete and illness will prohibit that. Only one game tonight and the we love the action. Tulsa wins and covers!

Tulsa

• Golden Hurricane are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on turf.
• Golden Hurricane are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
• Golden Hurricane are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Akron at Penn State (-26 and O/U 58.5) - Sometimes we just come out with the blowout special. This game is it this week. No analysis necessary, we all know PSu is a lot better than Akron, has an experienced D and an experienceed QB. Enough said. Penn State wins big!!!

Minnesota at Cuse (+6.5 and O/U 47) - You know we love us some Cuse. Every year we homer on them at some point. However, not this time. Greg Paulus leaves the Dukies to take up a new career. He will be terrible in week one. Th gophers will surprise. Take the Gophers on the road and give the points.

Georgia at Oklahoma State (-5 and O/U 61.5) - The Oregon/BSU game will be huge and the Va. Tech/Bama game will be huge but the prime time matchup of the weekend is Georgia at Oklahoma State. The Big 12/SEC bragging rights are on the line and a loss in this game basically ends any BCS aspirations on day 1 for one of these teams. We love Oklahoma State; love the coach, the QB, RB, WR and their swagger. Cowboys are loaded on offense this season. The question will be their defense. Georgia loses their QB and RB, returns an improved offensive line and will have a ton on the line if they want to gear up for their SEC schedule. We actually do not think this game will be as good as people think. We think Ok. State comes out guns blazing and Georgia will not have the offensive fire power to compete. Look for Georgia to stall and play ball control offense and look for OSU to press the action as much as possible. When OSu gets up, which might take 1-2 quarters, this game will be over. Oklahoma State wins by more than 10. Take the Cowboys to win and cover!

Georgia

• Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
• Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
• Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Cowboys are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 games as a favorite.

I am THE MAN!!!

Missouri neutral site Illinois (-7 and O/U 61) - This is The Herd’s lock of the week. Who are we to argue. Missouri graduated everybody last season and Illinois returns a lot of talent that wants to avenge last season’s loss to MIssouri. No contest here. Take Illinois in a nice opening win and cover!

The Juice will be loose!!!

Virginia Tech neutral site Alabama (-6.5 and O/U 38) - This game is huge for Alabama. Alabama was trounced by Utah in their bowl game and lost to Florida in a lackluster performance the game prior. Saban has never coached a team to back to back ten win seasons. The flu is running around taking out Bama players. Now they have to play Va. Tech, one of the best coached teams in the country. Beamer will have his kids ready, even with the loss of his starting RB. Here is the real kicker, Bud Foster’s defense versus first year QBs. Alabama will have a first year QB starting the game. Check this out:

*** TOTALS FOR 9 GAMES SINCE 2004 AGAINST QBS WITH TWO CAREER STARTS OR FEWER BEFORE PLAYING VIRGINIA TECH ***

* Those nine quarterbacks combined for 88 of 185 passing (47.6 percent) for 1,111 yards, 6 TD, 8 INT, 20 sacks; 101 rushes for 298 yards (2.95 ypc), 4 TD, 7 fumbles.

* The average for a quarterback in those nine games was 123.4 yards passing, 33.1 yards rushing, 1.1 total TD, 0.78 fumbles, 0.89 interceptions and 2.2 sacks.

You see where we are going with this. All signs point to Alabama, the media, the SEC hype, their defense, etc….. We think this game will be really close. We are not sure The Hokies can pull the W but we think this is definitely a 3 point game. Take the Hokies to cover!

Virginia Tech

• Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Hokies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
• Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
• Hokies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

• Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Toledo at Purdue (-10.5 and O/U 50.5)- Purdue is 3-9 ATS against the MAC. They are in complete rebuild mode and lack any skill position players. Toledo will shock them at home and could win outright. Consider the moneyline, too. Purdue may be the worse team in the Big 10. Take the Rockets and the points all the way to the bank!!

This is Purdue Football!!!

Western Kentucky at Tennessee (-29.5 and O/U 44.5)- Lane Kiffin’s debut!! In true SEC fashion he schedules a cupcake for his home opener. The verdict is out on Kiffin, but not on his assistants He has his Pops running the D with one of the best safetys in college football in Eric Berry. That will be huge. WKU will have no idea what this defense will be doing. Kiffin will try to run-up the score. This game will be ugly. Take the Vols and give the points.

VOlS fans are ready for their showdown in the Swamp!

Nevada at Notre Dame (-14 and O/U 61)- Nevada can score with anyone and this line is a result of the Irish hype machine that goes on in every offseason. The Irish will probably win this game, but not by more than two TD’s. The money in this game, though, is the Over. Both teams will be able to score. They will crush this over. Take the OVER and run!!!

Central Michigan at Arizona (-13.5 and O/U 54) - We have the Fever and the Fever calls for MORE LeFevour. Our man crush opens the season at Arizona. QB and OL experience wins games early in the season and The Chips are bringing one of the most experienced QBs in all of college football. Arizona is still trying to figure out who their QB is going to be this season and the pressure is high for Stoops, who is going through a public divorce. Both are items Head Coaches do not want to go through to start a season. Do not discount the divorce and the distraction factor it holds. The Fever is the man to put the Stoops experiment to rest. We are taking the Chips to cover and if you have some extra scratch throw it on the moneyline because we would not be surprised to see the upset.

Central Michigan

• Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Chippewas are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
• Chippewas are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
• Chippewas are 30-13-3 ATS in their last 46 games overall.

We got the FEVER!!!

Monday, September 7, 2009

Miami at Florida State (-6.5 and O/U 48) - Nothing like a Miami/FSU game to wrap up the weekend. Florida State just went through an offseason of distraction and Miami watched as two backup QBs left the program. Miami has tons of young talent on the defensive side of the ball. Coach Shannon has done a great job bringing in kids. Offense might be a bit suspect but it will be just as suspect as Florida State’s. FSU’s season always comes down to QB play and how that QB plays against a fast hard hitting team from THE U will determine what we can expect from FSU this season. Remember this Miami D held Floris in check last season for more than 3 quarters. That experience will help them open this season on the road. We think Miami can win outright. Take Miami and the points! Make sure you read below and check out the head-to-head ATS numbers. Speaks volumes.

Miami

• Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Hurricanes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Hurricanes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

NCAA Football Preview Spectacular - Celebrating 140 years of College Football

Our most favorite time of year is finally upon us…NCAA FOOTBALL. There really is nothing better. The purpose of this post will be to share our thoughts, ideas, predictions, etc… in 140 different ways as we celebrate 140 years of NCAA Football. Print now because this is some great work bathroom reading. We promise this will occupy your dump time for at least 10-15 minutes.

We want to thank all of our loyal readers and welcome any new readers. If you are not familiar with us, here is the scoop. Every single bet we post on this blog, we bet with our own money. We are not here to screw around or lose money. We want to win every bet we place and we want YOU to win every bet you place alongside us. When we list the lines alongside our picks, these are the lines we placed our bets at. NO EXCEPTIONS. Also, we are always here for our readers. You can email us at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com if you want to remain private or you can post to our Facebook page by searching within Facebook for RPJ Betting Syndicate.  Also, our website has some great analysis tools that we have access through our partnership with Bodog. We have live lines as well as matchup analysis tools. These are free for you to check out anytime. Let us know if you want us to Twitter. We think the jury is still out on whether or not Twitter is relevant but we are open to suggestions.

If you like what you see, like our picks and like our free analysis tools, we would appreciate it if you signed up through our website to use Bodog as your betting vehicle of choice. We love Bodog and have never had any issues getting our money out. The same can not be said for BetUs, Sportbook and other sites so bettor be warned!!!

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In honor of 2009 being the 140th College football season, we are going to make 140 observations, predictions, bets, historical references, Notre Dame jokes, USC homer statements, etc…

2009 NCAA Football Season Predictions, Analysis, Trends and Observations

140 - The number of pounds that Charlie Weis’s left man boob weighs.

More food please!

139 - Adding the numbers equals 13….will be the minimum amount of points Ohio State will lose by to USC on September 12. Yep, you heard it hear first… USC wins by at least two TDs at Columbus.

138 - The number of rushes it took LeGarrette Blount, RB Oregon, to reach 1,008 yards rushing last season. Good for a 7.3 yard average per rush. We are looking for big things out of the Oregon backfield this season. Early season test at Boise State.

137 -  1+3+7=11…USC averaged 86,793 in attendance last year for 11th in the country. We road tripped for the OSU game last year. Let us tell you, USC knows how to party for big games! Great fans. Best Buy had a tent. Their home schedule is weak this year, so the key to their national championship dreams will come down to their road performance with big games in Columbus, South Bend, Berkley and Eugene. Look for USC to be in very close games. Jump on the lines accordingly. We’ll be watching!!

The Trojan Horse will unleash the fury on 9/12!

136 - The number of wins Bill Snyder had as a coach of Kansas State. Sorry Bill, you are old and well past your prime. You will be lucky to have 140 career K State wins by the end of the year.

135 - San Jose State Coach Dick Tomey’s career losses. Dick is actually the 7th winningest active coach right now with a record of 181-135-7. Dick opens the season at USC and at home against Utah. Those 135 career losses will start climbing pretty fast in 2009.

134 - The yards passing per game USC’s D gave up last year. Tops in the nation. Next closest was TCU at 170 tards/game. It will be interesting to see how USC’s D holds up this year. They lost a ton of starters over the offseason. We’ll see how the “rebuilding” goes..the last time this happened was 2007 and they did just fine. See you in Columbus on 9/12!!!!

133 - The number of points scored in 2008 by Missouri Kicker Jeff Wolfert. You know you care about that.

Yes we went there; only RPJ throws love at the kicker!!!

132 - The yards rushing per game Buffalo gained (actually 132.71. Big things are expected out of the Bulls this year. We loved rooting for them last year and will do this same in 2009. Go Bulls!!!! On a sad note, Senior RB James Starks is injured and will miss his senior season.

131 - The number of points TCU’s defense gave up last year, which was good for #2 in the country. Keep reading and you will see the #1 team and their sub-100 point season.

130 - The number of pounds of food Mark Mangino eats every day for breakfast. We love us some Coach Mangino. Kansas is the 4th or 5th best team in the Big 12 but the Conference is stacked. We hope Mangino and Reesing can pull off a big time upset.

Would you bet against this man?

129 - Amount of seasons before Michigan suffered its first 9 loss season. It took Bo Schembechler 7 seasons to lose 9 games. Rich Rodriguez did go 9-4 his second year at West Virginia and that followed a 3-8 debut for the Mounties. Notre Dame in week 2 will be a good indication and a home revenge game. Michigan returns 16 starters from last year and 11 on Offense.

128 - The number of pounds of undigested lard that were sucked out of Charlie Weis’s belly during his botched tummy tuck surgery. We hope the Heart Attack Grill was able to buy some of the lard on the cheap.

127 - Yards per game improvement by Nebraska on defense last season. Their rush defense was the most improved in the nation. Bo Pelini showed he can coach but will he be able to improve on a 9-4 record?

126 - NC State rushing yards per game in 2008. This team was a cover machine last season at 9-2-1. One of the best teams to bet on in the country. Big opening game against Spurrier’s Cocks in week 1 and a revenge game at home.

125 - North Carolina rushing yards per game in 2008. Is this the year Butch Davis’ team breaks out. We are not so sure. He recruits well but he still needs to get past Va. Tech and a nasty, improving Georgia Tech team.

124 - Colorado rushing yards per game. Will the Hawkins father son duo make some noise this year or will the powers that be in the Big 12…Texas and Oklahoma State eat Buffalo burger this season? We think the later.

123 - 1+2+3 = 6 and there were 6 turnovers in the Boise State vs. Oregon game last season. 4 by Oregon and 2 by Boise State. We do not see Masoli throwing three picks in this game. This is one of our two prime time games for opening weekend. Stay tuned for our week 1 predictions.

122 - The number of tackles for loss generated by Oregon for tops in the nation. This team is legit and has a very solid chance of winning the PAC-10. We love or Trojans, but it will be a tall order beating this team in Eugene. If they beat SC, they have to be considered for the national championship game.

Sorry it took this long to throw in some tail!!!

121 - Cincinnati rushing yards per game in 2008. Senior QB Tony Pike is back in 2009 and these city boys put a scare or two into somebody each year. We will know this team early as they open at Rutgers on 9/7/2009 and then head to Oregon State on 9/19/2009. A win at either place will be impressive.

120 - Central Florida’s offensive ranking last season. 120 out of 120. What does this distinction look like you ask? 229.5 yards of total offense per game, 113 yards rushing with a 3.0 yards per carry mark, 116 yards passing per game and 16.6 points per game. On the bright side, they really have no place to go but up.

119 - 1+1+9 = 11 and Tulsa had 11 wins last season, which was the first time a Conference USA team had 11 wins since 2004. The biggest change this offense will incur is under center, as David Johnson is now gone after accounting for 49 touchdowns in 2008. Jacob Bower, last year’s backup, has the edge in the quarterback race, but he is being pushed by Texas transfer G.J. Kinne, and incoming freshman Shavodrick Beaver. The player that emerges with the job will get a terrific opportunity to build a name for himself behind this powerful attack.

118 - Tulane’s average yards rushing per game. How about some Conference USA love? Back to back C-USA news items. Gotta love it!

117 - Kansas State’s Defensive ranking last season. Bill Snyder is a hero but will he leave town as a goat this time around. This is asking for a lot.

116 - Amount of offensive yards Washington State gained against USC last season. Keep reading…Notre Dame did even worse.

115 - Tennessee’s Offensive ranking last year. That was 115 out of 119. An improvement in this number will show Vols fans that Kiffin can coach. We know Monte can but the jury is still out on Lane.

Al Davis versus rabid SEC fans....I pick SEC!

114 - 114 fans showed up to Temple’s Fourth Annual Fan Fest on August 26. No we were not there, we just heard it was definitely 114 fans.

113 -Mississippi State’s offensive ranking last season. Man that SEC is stacked from top to bottom with zero easy games ever. Yeah right!!!!

112 - Centuries that must pass before Notre Dame wins another national title. God told us. Lou Holtz is on crack with his Florida/ND BCS title game prediction this season. How do we bet against this? Holtz should back himself as a prop bet.

111 - Add a 5 to 111 and you get 5,111 passing yards for Graham Harrell last season; the first back to back 5,000 seasons in NCAA history. Texas Tech had a story book season last year and Coach Leach finds new QBs for his system every year. The Red Raiders will not sneak up on anybody this season but they still have talent and might be able to pull off some major upsets. We will find out pretty quickly how good this team is after they travel to Austin on 9/19.

110 - The number of career wins for Nick Saban. He has a career record of 110-50-1, 5th best winning % among active coaches. Saban has talent at BAMA this season but they spanking Utah gave them could provide one long, nasty hangover. Huge first game against Virginia Tech will be telling. Also, keep in mind that Saban has never won ten games back to back. Now combine that with breaking in a new QB and revamped OL and we see trouble ahead.

109 - The amount of yards per game LSU’s defense deteriorated last season. We knew they had QB issues but the Tigers D was terrible. Maybe Les Miles should have taken the Michigan job after all. Lots to work on in Baton Rouge.

108 - Miami (Ohio) average yards rushing per game in 2008. Check out this fantastic team marketing….Fans looking for premium savings and ideal seat location get the best of both worlds by purchasing RedHawk season tickets. Season tickets–including the game against Kentucky– are only $120. Prices are even more affordably priced for Miami faculty and staff ($105), senior citizens ($110), and youth under 18 ($100). What a bargain!!!

Hi my name is Jenna and I am a Cheerleader for Miami (Ohio). Come see me for only $120! I promise not to disappoint you but I can not say the same for the team.

107 - 107,000 seats. The size of Michigan’s Ann Arbor football stadium. Hopefully they get to see more than 4 wins this season.

106 -Kentucky’s offensive ranking last season. We are seeing a trend here. Why is the SEC the best conference in the country when 5 teams finished worse than 100 in total offense last season.

105 - Number of yards USC Freshman De’Von Flournoy had in their last scrimmage. 105 yards on three catches with 1 TD. This is not one of USC’s 5 star recruits but this kid is tearing up camp and has been even more impressive than Barkley. Put Flourney and RoJo on the field at the same time and zero secondaries will be able to cover these guys. USC rebuilding, yeah right!

104 - Auburn’s Offensive ranking from 2008. We know Gene Chizik has his hands full. Chizik was only 5-19 at Iowa State. Welcome to the SEC Gene!!!

103 - Wake Forest’s offensive ranking in 2008. This stat was shocking but I guess really shows how great their defense was last season. Wake will test itself early as it opens at home against Baylor and Stanford. Two teams on the rise and looking to prove themselves. We will probably stay clear of this team early until we get to see what they have under the hood.

102 - Amount of points Conference USA’s leading scorer scored last season. Any guess as to who it was? RB Bryce Beall of Houston.

101 - Duke’s offensive ranking in 2008. Dukie fans were actually impressed with 4 wins last season under Coach Cutcliffe. At some programs, a four-win season would be considered mediocre or disappointing. But at Duke, the accomplishment earned first-year head coach David Cutcliffe third place in the ACC Coach of the Year voting and helped trigger a change in perception of the Blue Devils. Although Duke fans may be happy, we are not sure where Duke will show improvement this season. A tough ACC schedule (Duke was 1-7 last season in the ACC) and a road game at Kansas might make 4-8 a pipe dream this season.

100 - Yards per game drop in Arizona State’s offense on a per game basis last year. The Sun Devils had a 6 game losing streak at home last season. We think it is time for ASU to send Erickson packing.

99 - Ralph Friedgen has dropped nearly 100 pounds since October with an improved diet and exercise. Kudos to you Coach. Maybe Charlie Weis can learn something from you. Hard work and exercise set a better example then stomach stapling surgery you lazy fat oaf!!!

Can somebody please cut my stomach off please?

98 - The number of Georgia Bulldog wins the last ten years, which is good for best in the SEC. Where is their national title? It certainly will not come this year when Oklahoma State shows this SEC team who is boss this season.

97 - The number of starts by Notre Dame’s Offensive Line. This just shows that experience does not always matter cause Notre Dame still stinks.

96 - 9+6=15 and 15 is Aaron Corp’s jersey number. USC needs this guy under center, not Barkley if they want to make it to another BCS title game. Barkley might be the QB of the future but Corp is the QB of now.

95 - Average yards passing per game for Georgia Tech last year. One of only 4 teams under 100 yards per game. No surprise that Army, Navy and Air Force were the other 3.

94 - Number of times we laughed looking at the following picture….

Caption says it all!!!

93 - The number of points USC’s defense gave up last year. Sick!!! All the sports banter going across the airwaves now is calling this USC D suspect because of how many starters it lost at the end of the year. Coach Carroll faced a similar ”rebuilding” in 2007. Didn’t seem to bother him or the team one bit. OSU will not score more than 14 points on September 12.

92 - 92,000 seats at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

91 - Amount of yards Notre Dame gained against USC’s defense last year. And people actually think Weis is an offensive genius.

90 - The number of times Jimmy Clausen will be sacked in his career at Notre Dame.

89 - The number of days it took us to write this blog post. Just kidding but not by too much!

88 - Texas A&M rushing yards per game in 2008. We thought Mike Sherman would run first, pass second last season but we were wrong. He had Javorskie Lane, the 300 pound RB and he could still not move the pile. Sherman just names Jerrod Johnson his starting QB but we do not see how there will be much to smile about. By the end of last season, the Aggies had fallen to the bottom of the Big 12 South. They want to make certain that last-place finish was just an aberration, not a reflection of a sagging program. Mike Sherman has already addressed locker room issues that divided last year’s team. This year’s group seems to have bought in. That’s only part of any possible turnaround story. Despite a solid recruiting class, the Aggies are young, lack depth at key positions and may find it difficult to improve last season’s 4-8 record. More competitiveness against Texas and Oklahoma (or even Baylor) would be a sign of progress.

87 - Amount of rushing yards per game USC’s defense gave up last year.

86 -Number of career receptions for Ole Miss hybrid player Dexter McCluster. Dexter is a physical specimen and Ole Miss is going to try and put the ball in his hands 20 times a game. The 5-foot-8 McCluster played at 162 pounds last season, but he’s up to 170 pounds entering this season. He’s incredibly strong for his size and bench-presses 340 pounds and squats more than 400 pounds. This guy is going to be fun to watch.

The Ole Miss faithful are counting on you!

85 - 85,000 seats at Nebraksa’s Memorial Stadium.

84 - Receptions by Eric Decker, WR Minnesota, for tops in the Big-10 last season. Minnesota WR, Eric Decker returns for his senior season. Gopher fans get to enjoy Mr. Decker in their new stadium this season, TCF Bank Stadium, which looks awesome. We will be there when USC comes to town in a few years.

83 - The number of wins by Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel over the last 8 seasons. Optimism is high in Columbus with Pryor under center but this team only returns 38 lettermen, 11 starters and 4 on offense. If OSU can get past USC on 9/12 the might roll undefeated into Happy Valley on 11/7. Hopefully we do not get to witness another Big 10 team in the national title game this decade. We know that end result.

82 - Number of wins USC has over the last 7 seasons to go along with 7 Pac-10 titles, two national championships and end of season top 5 rankings. USC’s dominance has inspired dismissive references to the conference as the “Pac-1″ and the “Lack-Nine” among fans from other regions. A lot of experts are predicting this is the season USC drops a notch. It will all come down to A) Aaron Corp being healthy or B) Matt Barkley’s ability to play college ball. If A is the case then Trojan fans have nothing to worry about. B is the X factor.

Who is going to battle for the Men of Troy this season?

81 - Seconds of fame for the Florida State girls. Slightly more than a minute but less than 2.

80 - The number of STDs that were passed in this picture…

Herpes, check! clap, check! genital warts, check! 77 more times....

79 - Passing yards by Cal QB Nate Longshore against USC last season. Well Nate has moved on and Jeff “Turd Sandwich” Tedford is backing Kevin Riley. Keep in mind, Kevin Riley was 4 for 16 for 59 yards 0 TDs and 1 INT last season against USC. Cal really needs a QB to show up this year if they want to compete in the Pac-10. Jahvid Best is the man but when you can put 8 in the box, he is shut down. We love and hate betting for or against Jeff Tedford’s Bears. He usually burns us and 21 points against Maryland in game #1 is a big number to overcome. We will probably be on the CAL sidelines until we can figure out what this team is really about.

78 - Florida gators defense… out of 78 starts at the three LB positions the last two years, every start was made by a LB that returns this season. The Gators depth and experience on Defense will be sick this season.

77 - Reason #77 to love USC TRojans…

Like we needed 77 reasons.

76 - Nick Howell, OT USC Trojans. Just one of 8 linemen with experience that will protect Corp or Barkley. This is why USC is still ranked in the pre-season top 5 with an inexperienced QB. Offensive line depth is the key to early season trouble games like 9/12 in The Shoe.

75 - This is the 75th anniversary of the Heisman trophy. Will Bradford or Tebow match Archie Griffin as the only two time winner or will Colt McCoy or a darkhouse candidate make a splash like Houston’s Case Keenum. Last year Keenum passed for 5,020 yards, 44 TDs with only 11 picks. Houston and the OVER anyone?

74 - Dan LeFevour’s career passing TDs. Our man crush gets to continue for one more season. The Fever has a brutal early schedule but he should be able to get his points. We love you DAN!!! His 11,702 total yards are the most among any active player, and if he averages 300 yards of offense a game this season (his career average), he’ll end his college tenure ranked third in FBS history in total offense.

73 - USC’s margin of victory of Notre Dame the last two seasons. Thats right folks. The combined score was 76-3. It won’t get any better this year. Claussen cursed himself when he said he would beat USC and the curse lives on.

72 - Combined bowl wins for Middle Tennessee State’s coaching staff. Where else can you get a stat on Middle Tennessee State? If you are not impressed with this then you do not deserve to read on.

71 - The ranking for sacks allowed/game for Texas. They allowed 2 sacks per game and are at the bottom of the pack for D1 teams. It didn’t seem to bother them too much last year-they arguably should have been playing Florida in the title game last year. However, this stat is telling because it may be a sign of trouble for Colt McCoy. They need to impove on this to keep Colt healthy and their teams hopes alive.

70 - Colt McCoy’s career completion percentage. Colt will be this seasons Tim Tebow, meaning he will be the most motivated man in the land. We expect big things from Colt. Potential Heisman winner and BCS title game participant.

69 - Use your imagination…

68 - Butch Lewis, OT USC. Another one of the experienced bunch that the Trojans will march out this season.

67 - You are more than halfway through our reasons and we are running out of reasons.

66 - After USC plays San Jose State in their opener, 66 is the number of games USC’s new linebackers will have played at USC. That is right, Chris Galippo, Michael Morgan and Malcolm Smith have played in 63 games at USC. So even though USC lost 4 LBs to the FIRST ROUND of the NFL draft, their replacements have serious experience.

65 - Todd Reesing TDs the last two seasons. Todd is 20-6 as a starter and Kansas may be 6-0 when Oklahoma comes to town on 10/24.

64 - RPJ Betting Syndicate’s career winning percentage before we started publishing this blog. Blog was a curse but it is fun. Not like we need reasons to watch and bet on NCAA football and stare at hot arse every week.

63 - Not since 1946 (63 years ago) has the top 3 Heisman vote getters returned to play the next season.

62 - 62 minus 1 = 61 and that is Troy’s pre-season USA Today rank. They received 1 vote.

61 - The number of yards New Mexico State improved on defense last season and this is before new Coach DeWayne Walker arrived on campus. Walker can really coach a defense and look for him to turn this program around quickly and launch himself to a better program. They could even be 6-0 or 5-1.

60 - Jimmy Clausen’s completion percentage last season; 60.9% to be exact. As a sophomore last year, Clausen had the third-most prolific passing season in school history. He completed 268 of 440 passes (60.9 percent) for 3,172 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He had the second-best sophomore season by a quarterback in school history, behind only Brady Quinn. Optimism is high in South Bend with 4 seniors on the OL and 10 offensive starters back.

I might be gay but I promise I will beat USC one of these years. I bet my favorite butt floss thong on it!

59 - Boise State is 40-17-2 against the spread in their last 59 home games. The Oregon/Boise State game on September 3 is going to be a battle.

58 - Number of first place votes Florida received in the pre-season AP poll. 58 out of 60 for a record 96.7%. The previous record holder was USC who received 62 out of 65 votes in 2007. USC did not play for the national title that year. Only ten teams that were ranked the pre-season #1 have won the national title. USC was the last team to do it in 2004.

57 -The number of TDs Matt Barkley, USC QB, threw in high school. With Aaron Corp injured and Mitch Mustain sucking, the Trojans season could come down to an 18 year old freshman. This story is worth watching. Will Barkley be able to win at Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon? Not likely.

56 - Tennessee is ranked 56th in the USA Today pre-season poll.

55 - Navy is ranked 55th in the USA Today pre-season poll.

54 - Number of teams that received votes in the AP Pre-season Top 25 poll. Nearly half of the FBS population (54 of 120) received at least one 25th-place vote. The biggest surprise? Colorado, a legit Big 12 North dark horse, got no votes, as in one fewer than Troy.

53 - Navy has 53 wins against the spread in their last 75 road games.

52 - Personal fouls committed last year by Syracuse QB, Greg Paulus as a PG for Duke baseketball. Huh? Yes, you read that right. Syracuse’s starting QB this year played for the Blue Devils for 4 seasons. We know Coach Doug MArrone is excited to be at Cuse but c’mon now, a PG at QB? This will end terribly wrong.

Your Syracuse Orange starting QB....GREG PAULUS!!!!!

51 -Amount of votes Rutgers received in the USA Today top 25 pre-season poll. One thing to remember, Rutgers returns their entire starting offensive line from last season. Rutgers opens at home against Cincy and this will be a big test. Cincy is tough and is changing their D from a 4-3 to a 3-4 so they might not be in game shape on the defensive side of the ball. If Rutgers wins they will be on their way to an easy 3-0 start before traveling to Maryland.

50 -Zero Big 12 teams finished in the top 50 in total defense last year and 9 finished worse than 78. If the Big 12 really wants to pass the SEC in national prominence the conference needs a handful of teams to play D.

49 - Washington Huskies defensive 3rd down percentage was 49 last season. The Huskies brough in Steve Sarkisian and hope a healthy Jake Locker can turn things around. These guys were 0-12 last season and 1-11 ATS. Not much to smile about. The Huskies do start with three home games but they are against LSU, Idaho and The Trojans. They then go to Stanford and Notre Dame and we think Irish eyes will be smiling. Sark has to work miracles to get this team moving in the right direction this season.

48 - Wake Forest is the 48th ranked team in the USA Today preseason poll.

47 - The total number of sacks garnered by VaTech’s D for 2nd in the country behind only GaTech (who knew!?!?!?). VaTech always overacheives and may have the country’s best head coach. He does more with so little than anyone in the country. HUGE opener against Bama. We think they have a very legit shot of beating the Tide outright. We are watahing this line like crazy.

46 - The Central Michigan Chippewas are 30-13-3 against the spread in their last 46 games.

45 - Mark Mangino, Kansas coaches career wins (45-41) and ATS wins (45-35) record. Kansas returns 15 starters and 42 lettermen. Legit Big 12 North title contenders. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!!!

44 - The number of seasons Joe Pa and Bobby Bowden have coached.

43 - Stanford defensive 3rd down conversion percentage in 2008. Jim Harbaugh had his team close to a bowl berth last season. The Cardinals definitely play hard but they do not have the talent to stack up against USC, Oregon and CAL. Their first 5 games in 2009 are favorable so this team might gain confidence with games @ Washington State, @ Wake Forest, and home against San Jose State, Washington and UCLA. 5-0 is possible and 4-1 is a definite possibility.

42 - Home wins Iowa has the last 8 years. Hawkeyes are 42-9 over this span. Too bad they have Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State all on the road this year. Schedule is likely to impede their Big-10 championship aspirations.

41 - Average yards rushing for SMU last year, which was the lowest in the nation by almost 30 yards per game. SMU averaged a staggering 2.29 yards per rush. Also, 41 inches is Taylor Mays’ vertical leap.

40 - This is to pay tribute to one of college football’s and our country’s all time greats, Mr. Pat Tillman. He wore #40 for the Arizona Cardinals (#42 for ASU) and he gave his life for our country. Thanks, Pat.

"Rangers Lead the Way"

39 - Amount of points Miami scored against Florida State last season in a 39-41 loss. Miami has some insane talent on defense but they open their 2009 schedule at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Va Tech and against Oklahoma. This team might easily be the best 0-4 team ever. These 4 teams won 40 games last year. Randy Shannon might not be able to improve much on his 12-13 career record with this kind of scheduling.

38 - The number of TDs for Oklahoma State players Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. This Oklahoma State team is explosive with explosive probably being an understatement. Georgia rolls into Stillwater on 9/5 and the Big 12/SEC conference debate will be settled in week 1. All three of the Cowboys’ losses last season were to teams ranked 1, 2 or 3. With their core coming back this season, the Cowboys will be a tough matchup for any team this season.

Zac and Dez = Best QB/WR duo in the nation!

37 - Number of wins by former Missouri QB Chase Daniel over the last 4 years. Chase is gone and the team only returns 9 starters. Coach Gary Pinkel has 22 wins the last two seasons, which ranks third to USC and Okahoma but we think Illinois will expose this team in week 1.

36 -Last season, 5 of Jeff Demps’s 7 rushing TDs were for longer than 36 yards. His lone reception was 61 yards. Demps is actually faster than Percy Harvin and Percy had a run of 15 TDs in 15 games. Demps might be too small to really carry the load but he will always be a factor when he steps on the field.

35 -The minutes per game TCU had the ball (34.55.62 to be exact) for tops in the nation. Solid numbers. They play outstanding D. They won $ for us quite a bit last year. We will be watching them again this year. Go Horned Frogs!!!!!

34 - The national ranking for tunrovers forced by Bama. They forced 24 turnovers for a .31 turnover ratio. That is freakin’ terrible!!! We think Bama is in the top 5 for most overhyped teams going into the season. We’ve heard a ton of talk about the Tide having the best D in the country. Eventhough they have a cakewalk for a schedule, don’t believe the hype!!!

33 - Michigan’s bowl streak that ended last season.

32 - The number of wins Texas has since winning the national championship 4 years ago. Texas has not even played for a Big 12 title during this time.

31 - The amount of points Houston gave up on defense per game last season. The defense this year might play 6 freshmen. Remember folks….Houston and the OVER, Houston and the OVER, Houston and the OVER. Say it three times before you go to bed every night. Also, Washington State’s average margin of defeat last season. Can you say Coach on the hot seat? We can!

30 - The age of Clemson’s Offensive Coordinator, Billy Napier. Dabo Swinney will have his hands full this year. Clemson will disappoint again. Phrase of the piece = Have his hands full. Full of what we wonder?

29 - “I’ve never seen so much optimism,” said columnist Rick Cleveland, a Mississippi native who has covered sports at the Jackson Clarion-Ledger for 29 years. It has been 46 years since Ole Miss won the SEC.  To put things into perspective. 46 years ago there were zero African american players in the SEC and Steve Spurrier was a freshman.

28 - The number of football national championship Princeton has won, the all-time leader.

27 - Stan Parrish’s current winless streak as a head coach. Stan was Kansas State’s coach before Bill Snyder and now takes over a Ball State team that was 12-2 last season. How the hell did this guy get a job? Probably because Muncie, IN could never be confused with San Diego or any SEC city.

26 - Road wins by TCU over the last 6 season, which is better than both Florida and Oklahoma. TCU even beat Oklahoma on the road in 2005. TCU has 5 ten win seasons the last 7 seasons and they are 30-2 in games when they hold opponents under 333 yards. Both losses were to Utah.

25 - Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss RB. Best RB you have never heard of. Has career stats of 4,287 yards and 36 touchdowns. If he repeats his three year average he will go down stat wise as one of the 5 best RBs of all time.

24 - Number of seasons Nevada Coach Chris Ault has patrolled the sidelines for the Wolf Pack. He is 193-84-1 over his career and returns 14 starters for his 25th season. Ault is the 6th active winningest coach in the country. The Wolf Pack open at Notre Dame in what could be an awesome week 1 upset. We can dream.

23 - Notre Dame’s pre-season AP rank. We think AP voters are literally on crack. Don’t do meth!

22 - Tribute to Runny’s favorite player of all time…Emmitt Smith, RB Florida Gators.

21 - The number of losses Charlie Weis has in 4 years as head coach of Notre Dame. More than 5 per season. The number of losses Ty Willingham had as head coach of ND was 15 after three seasons. Charlie is no better than Ty and of course he is ten thousand times fatter.

20 - Days until Week 1 of the NFL season is over. We bet NFL games too so get ready for a busy weekend.

19 - The 19th day of September is the day Lane Kiffin brings his Vols to the Swamp. Look for Urban Meyer to not only pummel the Vols but to run up the score as much as possible. Remember, Kiffin accused Meyer of recruiting violations this year. We know what Meyer will do when disrespected. Just ask Georgia.

18 - The number of starters Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech team returns this season. GT was 9-4 last season and was blown out by LSU in their bowl game. However, Paul Johnson’s triple option offense showed off in some impressive games and we look for them to improve on last year’s season in 2009. GT we are watching you.

17 - Iowa State’s current road losing streak. The longest in the nation. Kent State on 9/19 is the first opportunity to bust the streak. Also, the number of games the Pac-10 and SEC have played against each other since 2000 and the Pac-10 LEADS the series 10 to 7. Interesting that the SEC’s label as the best conference in football is 3 games under .500 versus the Pac-1, oops, Pac-10.

16 -Jarrett Brown, QB West Virginia. Will Brown be able to fill in for Pat White? Brown was White’s understudy for the last three years so he has learned from one of the best. Brown is 6′4″ and 223 pounds and wants to be the man in Morgantown. Big East is weak this year so maybe Brown can pull a Tee Martin and replace a legend and carry WVU to the title game.

15 - Tim Tebow. As much as we hate the Gators and Tim Tebow, you can not overlook them. Tebow has not lost since his Ole Miss debacle last season and his immortal words are now permanently displayed at the Swamp. Tim can elevate his elite NCAA status to legendary status with another BCS title and/or Heisman. SEC fans look out.

14 - Boise State’s pre-season AP rank. This is the highest ranking by a non-BCS team this year.

13 - We are superstitious and will not mention any teams or players at this spot.

12 - Colt McCoy. The man who beat Oklahoma and did not play Florida for the national title. McCoy spent last season playing second fiddle in the Big 12 to Oklahoma and Sam Bradford. We have a feeling that this is Colt’s year. Top to bottom we think Texas is a better team (remember last season) and Colt has extra motivation. If they run the table with their schedule, we think they are better than Florida and will beat them in the BCS final.

Colt + Undefeated Season = Heisman

11 - The number of years the BCS has been in existence. This system needs to be changed ASAP. Fans want a playoff, the players want a playoff and we say lets start with an 8 team playoff. Enough of this crap.

10 - The number of seniors on Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina team. Steve is 7-11 since 2007 and hired 6 new coaches for this season. South Carolina plays 8 teams that went to bowl games this season. They don’t make Steve Spurrier teams like they used to. The SEC caught up to Steve really fast.

9 - Number of TDs thrown by UCLA QBs last season. And Neuheisel thinks a redshirt QB will fix his offense. The joke will be on him!

8 - The number of starters Penn State returns to a team that went to the Rose Bowl. Big Ten is wide open this year. Ohio State will be down, Penn State will be down, Michigan is still down. There are lots of opportunities for a surprise Big Ten winner. Iowa and Illinois have the early edge for dark horse contender.

7 - Notre Dame has lost 7 in a row to USC. That’s the longest losing streak for ND against anyone since losing eight straight vs. Michigan State from 1955-63. You know our opinion on ND this season.

6 - The number of secondary NCAA violations committed by Vols Coach Lane Kiffin. All this before the season even started. Welcome to the SEC Kiffin. You thought working for Al Davis was hard, try playing in the SEC and in front of 100,000 fans. Will Kiffin be able to turn it around or will he continue the mediocrity?

5 - The amount of teams the Big 12 put in the top 25 in the final AP poll. SEC only had 4. The SEC’s hype as the most dominant conference in the nation was challenged last year and will be challenged again this year.

4 - The amount of offensive linemen that started for Oklahoma last year that are no longer on the team. Oklahoma is the “bettor beware” team of 2009. Almost every single poll has Oklahoma in the top 3. Remember Georgia last year? The “so-called” experts picked Georgia #1 in many polls and we know the story. The reason? Changes in the O-line. Last year Georgia had an inexperienced starting OL and this year Oklahoma only returns one starter on their OL. That is right. Oklahoma is replacing 4 OL starters. Top that off with the departure of two starting WRs from last year and you can see where this is going. Oklahoma will definitely be a favorite pick for a lot of bettors but we are saying be very, very careful. Texas will take this team out and we are expecting Oklahoma to finish the season with 3-4 losses. The Sooners are vulnerable. On a side note, Penn State graduated 3 Big Ten starting OL and Oregon lost its All American Center and starting left tackle. This cases are not as extreme as Oklahoma but they are worth mentioning.

3 - The SEC has won three straight NCAA titles. Not since the AP started polling in 1936, has one conference won the title 4 years in a row.

2 - Taylor Mays’ number. The best college football player to step on the field this season. 6′3″ 230 pounds and a near 4.2 40 time. INSANE!!!! Look for Mays to run the defense and play closer to the line this year. 4 LBs went to the pros last year and 2009 is the year of Mays! Dark horse Heisman candidate if he can make some big plays and score TDs on returns. Also, the folks in Columbus are talking about Pryor’s supposed 4.3 40 yard time. Well guess who is the one player that ran Pryor down from behind last year? Mr. Mays!

Not in my house!!!

1 -Texas will be the #1 team in the country when all games are played this season.

We hope we provided you with some good bathroom reading. Stay tuned for our week 1 predictions. Gotta love this time of year!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

Week 9 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer Busts Out!!!

Hey everybody.  BSL here with another round of SEC picks for those with the testicular fortitude to let your hard earned dollars ride on the games we all know and love.  If you’re not fired up for this weekend’s slate of matchups, then you are not a fan of the game.  It just doesn’t get any better.  My beloved SEC took another hit to its reputation when Auburn lost to West Virginia last night.  Add the Tennessee-UCLA debacle and a couple of other choice missteps, and you have a solid case that the SEC has yielded its place as the nation’s top conference to the Big-12.  Not that yours truly subscribes to that notion; I’m just saying that one could reasonably argue that point if there were so inclined.  In any event, as Mr. Miyagi once told me, when it comes to top conference it’s best not to declare a winner before the season is over.  I’m thinking that the SEC’s stock will continue to rise vis-à-vis the Big-12’s from here on out, but then again, I am a flaming SEC homer.  On another point, I note that the syndicate is finally rounding back into shape.  That’s my boys.  Look for more good things to come. 
 
Here are the picks:
 
TAKE TENNESSEE (plus 5) vs. ALABAMA - How is Tennessee only a 5-point underdog here?  Great question.  The Vols have been disrespected eight ways to Sunday this year and are fighting mad.  They are going to be sky high for this game is Knoxville and Alabama is due for a loss.  Vegas knows what’s up.  I think Tennessee wins this one outright.
 
TAKE KENTUCKY (plus 25) at FLORIDA - Kentucky is average, but not awful.  Sure, the Gators could get all fired up and do to Kentucky what they did to LSU, but I really don’t see that happening.  This one will likely never be in doubt, but I could see Kentucky’s defense keeping Florida to a modest number of points and UK being about to put up about 14-20 points themselves.
 
TAKE LSU (minus 1) vs. GEORGIA - Tigers/Bulldogs should be a good one.  Both teams need this one badly.  Georgia has more impressive stats, but LSU probably has more talent on both sides of the ball.  I think LSU wins this game at the line of scrimmage.  Look for a strong defensive effort from LSU and a low scoring affair. Also, when LSU has the refs in their pocket, good things happen. Check out this video from the LSU/USC game if you missed it last week. And yes this video is real.

 
TAKE OLE MISS (minus 6.5) at ARKANSAS - Ole Miss is clearly the more talented team, and while it is undeniable that the Hogs are getting much, much better week by week, I’ve got to think that Coach Nutt will have his boys ready to play for his first return trip to Fayetteville.

Sincerely,

BSL, Esquire

Week 8 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer is back after a winning weekend!

Sorry for the late post — this week the BSL was fighting for his life in front of a know-nothing judge who I’m sure doesn’t like SEC football (not that yours truly had the chance to ask His Honor that in open court, but I just get that feeling from the way he continually raised his voice when overruling my objections and then lowered it to read the jury verdict in my favor — BOO–YOW!!!!). 
 
Anyway, there are two components to making money when wagering on sports.  One is picking winners (something I’ve been able to do fairly consistently within the SEC).  The other, equally important, aspect is knowing how to bet (which is something that I have a proven history of absolutely sucking at).  Take last weekend for example:  I pick more winners than losers, but get blanked at the ticket windows because I loaded up on my Miss St - LSU money line parlay, which was only half right (meaning it was all wrong).  So, to hell with the telling folks how to wager.  If you want to make money, take a proven system like RPJ and bet in equal units.  You may go up and down, but in the end it will be more of the former and less of the latter.  Now, for those of you who want the BSL’s take on this week’s SEC action, read on.
 
 
TAKE VANDY (plus 14.5) AT GEORGIA — This is a tough one.  Georgia is due for a blow out, and Vandy’s glass slipper has a crack or two after last week’s loss at Miss St.  However, there is no denying the Vandy is a decent team, and Georgia has not been blowing teams out of the water.  Add the fact that Vandy and Georgia’s last two games have been decided by a total of 5 points, and I think you have the makings of a moderately close game here.
 
TAKE OLE MISS (plus 11.5) AT ALABAMA — I like this pick.  The last 3 times these teams have played, Bama has won by a field goal.  I’ve previously praised Coach Nutt’s ability to put Ole Miss in a position to win big games, and he proved me right with the big one over Florida. Alabama is like Drago in Rock IV.  They are only human; if you cut them, they bleed just like the rest of us.  Look for a 7-10 point game.
 
TAKE KENTUCKY (minus 7) VS. ARKANSAS — I don’t care that they beat Auburn.  Arkansas is not a good football team, and one week doesn’t change that.  Kentucky isn’t so hot either, but they’ve got the defense to hold the Hogs in check and enough offense to cover 8 points.  I like the Wildcats to win by double digits.
 
TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA (plus 2.5) VS. LSU — I never would’ve picked this game this way before I saw the LSU-Florida game.  Florida exposed LSU as one of this season’s pretender teams.  LSU’s defense (which it rode to both of its recent national championships) is highly suspect.  Never in history has a defense with so much talent performed so poorly (note to Les Miles — your dual defensive coordinator scheme isn’t working).  South Carolina has turned their season around and will be fired up to play this game at home.  I like their chances to win outright. 
 
TAKE MISS STATE (plus 7.5) at TENNESSEE — Mississippi State is not that bad.  I think they really started getting things together after the Georgia Tech game where they got their asses handed to them.  This year’s Tennessee team has an palpable absence of character and leadership.  For some reason, I put Tennessee and Clemson in the same boat this year.  Sometimes, you just don’t have that mojo that makes average teams good and good teams great.  The Vols are barely average, and I like Miss St to keep this one close, if not win it outright.
 
So there you have it.  Again, a big tip of the hat to the gents at the Syndicate; keep up the good work boys.  Good luck to everybody this weekend.

Sincerely,

BSL - Backwoods Southern Lawyer

Week 5 NCAA Free Football Picks (9/27/2008): Introducing the Backwoods Southern Lawyer, AKA SEC Genius!!!

Flash and Runny have reached out to another guest writer. Mr. SEC lawyer as we named him is picking at an 80% clip for SEC games. He told us not to bet the Miss St./Auburn game, he told us not to bet the Georgia/South Carolina game and he has been dead spot on all year. Well Mr. SEC Lawyer has agreed to guest post for us and he will now be referred to as BSL or Backwoods Southern Lawyer. BSL loves NCAA football, specifically SEC football. He lives and breathes SEC football and we have found him to have the best pick ideas related to SEC football in the country. We are privileged to serve as his voice.

From BSL:

I believe it was Reba McEntire who sang “Don’t trust your soul to no backwoods Southern Lawyer”, but my faithful clients can trust their dollars and be well rewarded. The verdict is in — yours truly is a blistering 80% on SEC games in September and back with more winners this week. Have you or your pocketbook been injured by college football misfires? Well, strap on your neckbrace, stick with me and we’ll laugh all the way to the bank.

Be forewarned. Runny and Flash have crunched the numbers eight ways to Sunday; they work a reliable system and grind out impressive results year after year. I’m more of a “feel” guy. I get my picks from having been born and raised 3 doors down from the gates of one of the premier SEC campuses (literally being able to hear the roar of the crowd from my room); from worshiping names like Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson and Archie Manning; from tailgates that start on Thursday; from being one fo the first ones in and the last to leave the stadium; and most importantly, from living and breathing SEC football for well nigh 30 years now. The law may be my profession, but SEC football is my passion, and I’m just here to share the love and — above all — I’m here to make a dollar and a cent in this business. So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks….

Call it the weekend of the home favorite in the SEC. With the exception of Ole Miss, that’s who I’m going with:

TAKE OLE MISS +22 AT FLORIDA. Houston Nutt knows how to get up for big games (i.e., Hogs upsetting LSU in last year’s regular season finale). Gators have been playing the offense playcalling close to the vest. Expect another vanilla showing and a 17-point Florida victory.

TAKE LSU -24 VS. MISS. ST. Auburn beats MSU by 1 point. The next week, LSU beats Auburn by 5 points. So, what does Vegas say — opening line is LSU over Miss St. by 24 points. They are on to something. For one reason or another, LSU owns Miss. St.– like 15 of the last 16 owns. And, lately, it hasn’t been close. The win over Auburn has got LSU primed for a big game, not a let down. If LSU gets up early, this one will not be within 5 touchdowns.

TAKE AUBURN -6.5 VS. TENNESSEE. The wheels are falling off Fulmer’s bus, which makes me question this pick because last year, just when you thought he was a beaten man, Tennessee went on a run and made it to the SEC Championship Game. HOWEVER, Tennessee just doesn’t have the dogs for this hunt. Auburn rolls in a low-scoring affair.

TAKE GEORGIA -6.5 VS. BAMA. Georgia was ranked number one to start the season for a reason. They are loaded and are going to make this a statement game at home. John Parker Wilson (or whatever his name is) is an average quarterback and will show it this weekend.

Enjoy the picks. I will be back next week for more action.

Yours truly,

BSL Esquire

9/20/2008 - Week 4 Free NCAA Football Picks - Improving but Ready for Another Breakthrough!!!

First things first. Our performance has been less than stellar….RPJ is now 9-11-1. Flash is 3-1 and Runny is 6-6. We clearly want to make money and we are not pleased and will not make any excuses like a terrible Kansas line for a push and two half point losses already on the season…..but who is checking. We also changed our blog from RPJ Syndicate to RPJ $yndicate to invoke the gods of the almighty dollar.

Thanks for all of the advice and for your support or knocks. Our models take into account everything you can think of under the sun and then some so we feel confident we will turn this around in no time.

Our rules…We bet every game we put on here and at the lines we post them. Lately we know we have shared the pain but some serious cash is right around the corner. We are going to throw out a lot of games this week, including our first great debate game. RPJ $yndicate picks are picks that pass 100% of our combined models, Runny picks are picks that pass his models but do not pass Flash’s models and Flash’s picks are picks that pass Flash’s models but do not pass Runny’s models. Simple enough. On with the picks….after the obligatory arse shots. We had a request for more Keyra videos and who are we to deny you of that pleasure. Enjoy Mr. SEC lawyer friend….

And one nice pic of Keyra can not hurt either….

And just to continue with the theme here….Miss Angelina Jolie. We wish the cameraman focused a little more to the left and it was raining outside but hey we do not live in a perfect world.

Last but not least…Anybody have a problem with Playboy? We do not think so.

Yes we will still make picks this week and here we go….

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Temple at Penn State (-28.5) - Penn State helped us out last week for one of our wins. Not sure it was more about Penn State or more about how terrible Syracuse was but a win is a win and for us right now that is all that matters. Penn State is going for its 26th straight win against The Owls. The Nittany Lions (3-0) are among the nation’s top 25 in both passing (273.0 ypg) and rushing (263.0 ypg), resulting in the country’s eighth-ranked total offense and fourth-highest scoring team. Temple is coming off two crushing defeats, one in OT to UCONN and the other on a hail mary pass to Buffalo as time expired. Here are the ATS numbers:

Temple
Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Owls are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.

Penn State
NittanyLions are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
NittanyLions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Head-to-Head
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Temple has some impressive ATS numbers, as does Penn State, but what it really comes down to is Temple can not compete in Penn State or against Penn State. No way, no how. The last two years or so when Temple was putting up these impressive ATS numbers they were also losing to Penn State at home 31-0 in 2007 and in Happy Valley 47-0 in 2006. Temple will not cover, NO WAY, NO HOW!!! Take Penn State to dominate this game and win by 30 plus points.

LSU at Auburn (+2.5) - This is definitely the game of the week and ESPN Game Day canceled their Arizona State show to move to Auburn after The Sun Devil’s choke job last week. Auburn is coming off a ridiculous game that they won 3-2. Words can not describe how awful and terrible the offenses were. If Auburn can not score against Mississippi State then how the hell are they going to score against LSU. LSU has had hurricane on the mind and really has needed to get games in to break in their QBs and offense. Auburn has a top rated defense as well so if LSU is not ready to play on offense this score could be lower than the 3-2 we saw last week. The ATS numbers:

LSU
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in September.

Auburn
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in September.
Under is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 conference games.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Head-to-Head
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Yep. you guessed it. We are mixing it up this week and throwing in our pick as an over/under pick. Right now the O/U line is at 37.5 and we love that number. These offenses are not ready to play but the defenses are. Remember two years ago…LSU at Auburn….final score was 7-3 in favor of Auburn. Take the under (37.5) in this game.

Wake Forest at Florida State (-5) - This game is pretty simple to see for us. Wake Forest has actually tested itself this season with a road win at Baylor and a home win versus Ole Miss. Baylor is impressive in the fact that Wake traveled and won in the state of Texas for the first time ever and Ole Miss is impressive simply because it is an SEC school. We know absolutely nothing about Florida State because they chose to beat up on 1-AA schools. And yes we refuse to call them anything but 1-AA schools. The ATS numbers:

Wake Forest
Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

Florida State
Seminoles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Head-to-Head
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

We think this game favors Wake. They are tougher and more tested. Wake also has a two game winning streak going against the Seminoles and that shows us that Wake knows how to win in Tallahassee. We think this game will be close and physical and do expect Wake to win in the end. The fact that we get 5 points makes it all the better. Take Wake and the points.

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-9) - Our favorite battering ram. Of course Notre Dame kicked us in the arse last week. Damn early turnovers killed Michigan. Well Charlie Weis put all his eggs in the Michigan basket. He talked about beating them all off season and observers say he had more emotion and was more prepared for last week’s Michigan game than any game he has ever coached. You know what that means….let down city. Charlie also got knocked on his fat ass and hurt his knee. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Look at the fat walrus fall….

Michigan State is not a team you can overlook. They are physical, run well and have a great coach. We know Notre Dame shaves their Kuntz and if you do not believe us then click this sentence. The ATS numbers:

Notre Dame
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Michigan State
Spartans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. INDEP.

Head-to-Head
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

We think this is a heavily overrated Irish team. Barely beating SDSU and stomping a depleted, young Michigan team in the infancy of a completely new offense does not impress us at all. MSU is the much better team. They roll at home. Take MSU -9.

Runny Versus Flash - The Great Debate Game

Georgia (-7) at Arizona State - Well it was bound to happen and it only took until Week 4 but Runny and Flash are split on this game. We are not going to bet this game because we are split on what is going to happen. However, we know our readers want to know what is going to happen in this game because it is the game of the week. This game is important on many levels and especially for the Pac-10 versus SEC feud. The Pac-10 laid an egg last week, especially against Mountain West foes and the Mt. West is far removed from SEC competition. Tennessee went to UCLA and got pummeled by a bad UCLA team that went to BYU and lost 59-0. Yup 59-0. Georgia was the pre-season #1 and many predicted them to be national champion. If Georgia is to live up to the hype, they have to go on the road to Arizona State and win convincingly. Amazing tidbit….this is the first time Georgia has travelled west of the Mississippi River since……….1960. 1960!!!!!! Are you freakin kidding us?!?! On top of that, this is the furthest The Dawgs have traveled in the regular season since…..1967. What the F? The SEC is by far the worst traveling conference in all of college football. It can not even be argued. Here are the ATS numbers before we get into our debate:

Georgia
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Arizona State
Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in September.
Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Flash Flash saysthat Georgia has a lot to prove and is not coming off of a look ahead game even though they did not play well against South Carolina. Arizona State played the look ahead game and flat out lost and that will be tough to stomach. Arizona State has one big flaw and that is they struggle against physical teams. USC destroyed them last year and literally bloodied Rudy Carpenter. We remember the blood.

Texas beat Arizona State bad and even Arizona, which is not known for much but is well coached on defense almost beat them before losing 20-17. Last week to UNLV, Arizona State ran for 3.6 yards per carry, lost the turnover battle, lost the time of possession battle, lost the 3rd down conversion and 4th down conversion battle and blew a ten point 4th quarter lead. What does that translate into?…..Not being tough enough. I think the ATS numbers speak for themselves also. You will have to wait and see what Runny thinks but I think every sign but one points to Georgia. Georgia does not know how to travel and the SEC does not travel well. That scares the hell out of me. However, in this case, ASU fields a bunch of pussies and Georgia should roll through them in a big statement game. Georgia wins and covers!!!! Side bar….When asked about dropping out of the top 25, Dennis Erickson responded “I don’t know if we should have been in there to start with.” Way to inspire confidence in your team coach.

Runny SaysGeorgia is the most overrated team in the Top 25. Yeap - THE most overrated. I don’t buy the hype at all. No doubt they have studs on both sides of the ball. However, their O-Line is ATROCIOUS. No way they can win the SEC with that line. No way. And, there is no way they travel 1,000 miles to Zona and dominate a stout D. As we noted above, this is the first time they have traveled West of the Mississippi since 1960 and the furthest they traveled since 1967. This cannot be overstated. As also noted, SEC teams do not travel out of state very well. This also cannot be overstated. Why is that?

The reason, I feel, is that SEC schools do not travel well because they purposely don’t do it. They are not used to it, so when a big game comes a good distance from home, they fold. Pretty much every SEC team loads up on cupcake schools at home like SouthEastCentralWestCrenshaw Louisiana State and think that establishes college football supremacy. I don’t buy it, and neither will ASU. Despite what they are saying in Athens, Geogia is looking past this game. They are smack dab in the middle of a tough conference schedule. Take that and the fact that they have to travel 1,000 miles means Georgia is in trouble.

(SIDE NOTE: As you can imagine, in our travels to various sporting events around this great country of ours we often run into complete degenerates that often have the same interests we do: gambling and handicapping. Some of our readers know our friend, Maury the Wig, who graces our presence during NCAA hoops season. Well, at the USC-OSU game last weekend, we had the pleasure of meeting a fellow by the name of Magic Rat. Imagine being at the biggest regular season college game of the past 10 years and meeting a guy in SoCal wearing cut-off jean shorts, drinking piss warm PBR’s and bitching about teams that were not OSU or USC. Rat was by himself, bitching about the SEC and we found him to be a pure genius. He is a hater and just seemed bash the popular team at the moment. Anyway, we immediately extended the invite to contribute to our blog. He accepted, but we haven’t heard from him since. Hopefully he will grace us with his presence. Stay tuned…we have no idea if he will remember us).

Granted, ASU sucked it something awful last week against UNLV. However, I think it was a look past game. They knew who was coming this week and they got ahead of themselves. Coach Erickson is a good coach. He knows how to motivate. He will turn it around. They may not win, but they can cover 7 points. I’m riding Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils and taking the 7 points.