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NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions: The Weekend of the Underdog!

Well we went 2-0 on Saturday and 0-2 on Sunday in predicting the Wild Card games so we ride our two game losing streak into the divisional round. We went back to look at some of the data and found out some surprising results. The Divisional round pits the two best teams against the wild card followers and a lot of the betting experts are quick to point out that the home team wins most of the time. Well we beg to differ. Three of the four road teams in last year’s Divisional round won straight up and all three were 3-point underdogs or greater. Each of those games fell under the posted total with the dogs holding their opponents to 13, 11 and 10 points. Two years ago, both Sunday road team won outright and three years ago two road teams won. Since 2003, the road team has won outright 11 out of 24 times.  So this thinking is not rocket science but we are simply mentioning it to make you think. When we dig deeper into the games this weekend and crunch the numbers through our proprietary system, we came to the same conclusion in picking our winners….this is the weekend of the underdog!!!

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Arizona at New Orleans (-7) - This is one of the toughest games to call this weekend. The Cardinals got smoked by Green Bay in week 17 then race out to a huge lead in the Wild Card rematch, blow the lead, miss a game winning FG and then win by freak play in overtime. The New Orleans Saints have lost 3 in a row. Some would argue that they had home field wrapped up and therefore let up but the problems started the first week of December. The Saints smoked the Pats to end November and then barely got by Atlanta and Washington. Then they lost to Dallas at home and followed it up by losing to Tampa at home and then Carolina on the road. So there are two things to think about: 1) Will the real Cardinals team please stand up and will they play for 4 quarters 2) Were the Saints tanking it and if so can they come out blazing? The brilliance of betting with a line spread is we do not care who wins. Can the Cardinals win? Sure they can. Can the Saints win by 3 TDs? Sure they can. Here is what we do know. The Cardinals can score on anybody at any time. The Packers had the second rated defense in the league and Warner had more TD passes than incompletions (5 to 4). Just sick numbers. Are you willing to be against him? The Saints have been out rushed in 5 of the last 6 games and the one game they were not out rushed they had 6 more rushing yards than their opponent. Not impressive. The Cardinals actually rushed for 150+ yards against the Packers and their coaching staff knows the value of rushing in the playoffs. They learned the Pittsburgh way… Rush and play defense. And on top of the Pittsburgh way, the Cards have Kurt Warner at QB and are deep in the offensive skill areas. It does not even matter if Boldin plays. We are not sure New Orleans can simply turn the juice back on, come out firing on offense, pressure on defense and impose their will. If we had to pick the team that can do this right now it is Arizona and with that….We are betting Arizona to cover!! The line looks legit. Saints opened at -7 and it has remained pretty flat. Right now 60% of the money is on the Cardinals and we are seeing some line drops out there.

Arizona

• Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) - This is the one game we have been hemming and hawing about. The Ravens looked straight nasty last weekend against the Pats. Yes their QB was 4-10 for less than 40 yards, 34 to be exact, with one INT but they did not need him to win and that is scary. Ray Rice is on a tear and is earning elite status and a top 5 pick in fantasy football next season. So we have a hot Ravens team and that brings us to the Colts. A lot of times people forget the “loser” label that Peyton Manning used to have before he won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl gave him the pass. Here are some Peyton facts. Peyton has not won, We repeat has not won a playoff game following a first round bye. Jim Caldwell has tried to mix things up this week practicing first team O versus first team D but is that really enough? time will tell. Also, since the Colts won the Super Bowl, they have won zero playoff games. So how does this positive, hot Ravens team mesh with the “losing” label of the Colts. We need to look at their historical head to head matchups. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards in five straight versus Indianapolis while getting held to 3.3 per carry. Rice has 26 attempts for 94 yards in two meetings. The Ravens have committed 25 turnovers during their seven-game skid in the series and they’ve never won in four trips to Indianapolis, falling 31-3 last season. Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception while Flacco was picked off three times. Flacco, 15 of 29 for 136 yards over the last two weeks, is bothered by a hip injury that had him limping in practice this week. So when we combine the specific Colts versus Ravens matchup we definitely have to lean one way. We do not think the Ravens are capable of repeating their efforts of last week and a rested Colts team will come out blazing. This line is holding pretty flat at Colts -7 to -6.5. 69% of the money is on the Colts, which might smell trap. Watch to see where the money and line go as we get closer to kickoff. We are betting the Colts to win and cover!

Ravens

• Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
• Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Dallas at Minnesota (-3) - This will probably be one of the most viewed NFL games ever. Favre in the playoffs versus the Cowboys. Ratings City!!! A lot is being made of the Cowboys right now shaking the December and playoff bug. What is not being mentioned is how good the Cowboys are right now on both side of the ball and in the trenches. Just to recap the Cowboys 4 game winning streak and ATS winning streak….

1/9/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards.

1/3/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 24-0 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards (freaky coincidence - 142).

12/27/2010 - Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0 and out rush the Skins by 65 yards.

12/19/2010 - Cowboys win at New Orleans 24-17 and out rush the Saints by 80 yards.

Seeing a trend here? We are. Playoff football is won by rushing the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing awesome defense. The Cowboys are playing sick defense and doing it without blitzing. D Ware and A Spencer are locked and loaded and destroying O-linemen. The Cowboys are running at will and Romo is playing efficient, mistake free football. Winning playoff combinations. The Vikings have an equally impressive defense but Jared Allen has slowed the last month. Not saying he will not rise up for the Cowboys game but he has not continually dominated and improved game after game like the Cowboys men down the stretch. We also get nervous for Flozell Adams. He becomes “Mr. Jump offsides” when the crowd gets noisy. Also, the Viking’s O-line is not letting A-Pete run wild like he did in the beginning of the season. It has been a loooooong time sine #28 broke 100 yards rushing. This is largely a momentum play, but we are getting points. The head-to-head stats do not support our theory so buyer beware. This line looks pretty legit. The line opened at Vikes -3 and is bouncing back and forth to -2.5 with 55% of the money on the Cowboys. We are betting the Cowboys to cover!

Dallas

• Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in January.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.

NY Jets at San Diego (-8) - The Jets run game and defense are hot right now. Sanchez played exactly as a rookie QB needs to play in the playoffs and that is playing efficiently and playing not to lose. He was perfect last week and we look for more of the same this week. There is some danger in this game if you are a Chargers fan. The Chargers were not able to run the ball well this season and certainly will not be able to run on the Jets. If the Chargers can not run then they will be pass happy and that puts them in the way of the Jets blitzes and the Jets MVP, Mr. Revis. On the flip side, the Chargers D gave up 4.45 yards per rush and the Jets O rushed for 4.53 yards per carry. Now we are not predicting a Jets victory because we do not have to. We are here to make winning bets and 8 points are too many points for this battle. This line opened at Chargers -9 and is now down to -8 or -7.5 depending on the sports book. We are seeing 63% of the money on the Jets so we know this is a true line. We are betting the Jets to cover in this game!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

San Diego

• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
• Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Chargers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Chargers are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions: 4 Games, 4 Stories, 4 Toes and 4 Winners!

We love the NFL playoffs. We crushed them last season and we are taking our winning regular season record into the postseason. We are going to pick all 4 games for you and the trends are easy to spot. You do not stink it up the week before the playoffs against the same opponent and come out strong and you do not beat Tom Brady at home. We are mingling our picks with a Wild Card playoff salute to the Toe of the Camel. On with the picks…

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.

NY Jets

• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?

Eagles

• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.

Ravens

• Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

Week 17 Winning NFL Picks: The End of the Road!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - We threw in a loser last week and were 4-5 on the weekend. Our record now stands at 56-48-1. Nothing to get too excited about but it is a winning record. We are not going to pick games for Week 17. Who knows what kind of effort and players you will get this week. Better to avoid it and recoup for the playoffs next week.

Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:

Indy +8 at Buffalo

Saints +7 at Panthers

Jags +1.5 at Browns

Bears at Lions +3

Pats +7 at Texans

Steelers at Dolphins +3

Giants +9 at Vikes

49ers at Rams +8

Falcons at Bucs +1.5

Packers +3 at Cards

Chiefs +10 at Broncos

Ravens at Raiders +10.5

Skins +3 at Chargers

Titans at Seahawks +6

Eagles +3 at Cowboys

Bengals +9.5 at Jets

Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)

Week 16: Arizona Cardinals

Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets

Week 15 NFL Winning Picks: We will make you more money than Tiger Woods paid his Mistresses!!! And that is a lot!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - We predicted the exact truth once again, we lost our first game of the week. Jags almost had it but did not come through in the end. Kudos to Peyton & Co. We are now 48-40 on the season. We have a ton of games for you once again. Last week we simply listed them out and went 8-4 so we are not going to mess with what works. If you want any detailed insight, feel free to use our matchup tool on our website or contact us directly via email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com or sign up for our Facebook and/or Twitter feeds (top right of this website) and get in touch with us that way. On with the picks:

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-11) - We like the Ravens to win and cover

New England (-7) at Buffalo Bills - We like the Patriots to win and cover

Arizona Cardinals (-13) at Detroit Lions - we like the Lions to pull the cover

Atlanta Falcons at NY Jets (-6) - We like the Jets to win and cover

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) - We like the Eagles to win and cover

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14) - We like the Broncos to win and cover

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-7) - We like the Bengals to cover

Underdog Strategy - Underdog strategy was 7-9 last week and is now 106-99-2 on the season. Team in bold is the underdog.

Dallas Cowboys (+8) New Orleans Saints

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) - Already have one underdog loser.

Chicago Bears (+11) at Baltimore Ravens

New England at Buffalo Bills (+7)

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13)

Cleveland Browns (+2) at Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons (+6) at NY Jets

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+12.5)

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Oakland Raiders (+14) at Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at San Diego Chargers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (+2) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+9)

NY Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)

Knockout Pool Strategy - Our knockout pool is down to 11 people and we have a bad feeling all 11 are going to take our pick this week. For us, it is a huge no brainer to bet on the Denver Broncos to beat the bag out of the Raiders at home. We would not be surprised if this game was over in the first 5 minutes.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos

NFL Week 14 Winning Picks - Record number of winning picks!!!!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - It was nice of the Browns to rain on our Thursday parade but we are facing a colliding of the gambling forces this weekend. We love a ton of games. Since the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday, RPJ dropped to 40-35 on the season. Since we are facing so many different games this week, we are going to simply list the games that we like. When we did this in the NCAA we slayed it so hopefully it translates over to some nice Ws for RPJ and for you.

New Orleans (-10.5) at Atlanta - We are taking New Orleans to win and cover

Detroit at Baltimore (-13.5) - We are taking Baltimore to win and cover

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago - We are taking Green Bay to win and cover

Seattle at Houston (-6) - We are taking Houston to win and cover

Denver (-7) at Indianapolis - We are taking Denver to cover

Buffalo at Kansas City (pick em) - We are taking Kansas City to win and cover

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5) - We are taking the Vikings to win and cover

NY Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay - We are taking NY Jets to win and cover

St. Louis at Tennessee (-13) - We are taking Tennessee to win and cover

Washington (-1) at Oakland - We are taking Washington to win and cover

San Diego at Dallas (-3) - We are taking Dallas to win and cover

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1) - We are taking the Eagles to cover

Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5) - Already have an underdog winner!!

New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)

Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Seattle (+6) at Houston

Denver (+7) at Indianapolis

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville

Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota

Carolina (+13.5) at New England

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)

St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee

Washington at Oakland (+1)

San Diego (+3) at Dallas

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants

Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)

Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 14 Winning Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Unleash the Hell!

RPJ $yndicate Picks - These are our straight picks. Only one game tonight and we will be back later in the week with the rest of our weekend picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns - Accuscore is calling for a Steelers 23-13 win tonight. We like how they are thinking but we are not sure the Browns will be able to put up 13 points tonight in the snow. After Mike Tomlin’s now famous unleash hell comments the Steelers responded with a freakish loss at home to the Raiders. If you watched that game you know that the football gods screwed with the Steelers just like the god did when the Raiders beat the Bengals by freak plays. We do think the Steelers will unleash hell and we would not be surprised to see them win out. Big Ben is back, Mendenhall looks good, Holmes and Wallace will fill in just fine for a banged up Hines Ward tonight. Remember what this game is, the defending Super Bowl champs are playing the Browns. The 1-11 Browns. The Brady Quinn led Browns and we all know that no good QBs come out of Notre Dame since Joe Montana. Notre Dame’s season may be over but we will still find ways to rip them. Cleveland’s D is atrocious. They give up twice the rushing yards that Pittsburgh does and they gave up 26 points a game, which is 4th worst in the league. We think Pittsburgh does unleash hell tonight, even in the snow. We are betting Pittsburgh to win and cover!!

Pittsburgh

• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 14.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)

New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)

Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Seattle (+6) at Houston

Denver (+7) at Indianapolis

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville

Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota

Carolina (+13.5) at New England

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)

St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee

Washington at Oakland (+1)

San Diego (+3) at Dallas

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants

Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)

Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 13 Free Winning Picks: Straight Cash Homey!!!

RPJ $yndicate Picks - After going 5-4 last week, we are now 37-32 on the season. We still have a few weeks to show some improvement and all this really shows is if you take our our 5-0 week we are simply 500 on the season. We went on a late season surge with our NCAA picks and we plan on doing the same here.

Sunday December 6, 2009

Philadelphia (-5) at Atlanta - What is the over/under on Michael Vick references in this game. Probably enough to make us vomit in our mouths. This game is the culmination of horrible injuries for the Falcons. No Matt Ryan, if he plays Michael Turner will not be effective and starting guard Harvey Dahl went out last week. Yes, the Falcons won the game but they only rushed for 75 yards against the #32 rushing defense at the time. The Eagles are always capable of putting a beat down on somebody. We know the Eags are fighting their own injuries (Westbrook, their secondary and D Jax) but the Eagles have been here before. When they need somebody to step up, they step up. Grab Avant this week if you need a WR in fantasy football. So coming in to this game knowing Atlanta is banged up on offense, they really do not want to face the Eagles defense, which is a lot better than Atlanta’s. We also love the fact that the Falcons have the second worst defensive 3rd down conversion percentage. They let teams convert 3rd downs 47% of the time. That is horrific. We are betting the Eagles to win and cover big!

Philadelphia

• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 13.
• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
• Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) - Big Ben back, Raiders still suck. Final score prediction 35-3. NEXT!!!

New England at Miami (+4) - This is a bizarre game on paper because when we look at the stats we look at and see one team ahead in the relevant stats by a wide margin we call that a clean sweep game, a no brainer! In this game, Miami is that team. Just to highlight a couple of them: Miami runs for more than 40 yards more per game, 6/10ths more per rush, converts offensive third downs 4 percentage points better and gives up less rushing yards, yards per rush and 3rd down conversions on defense. What does this all mean? It means Miami is the perfect antithesis of the Pats and should be able to control the clock and keep this game close. That is what we are banking on. We are betting the Dolphins to cover!

New England

• Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss.
• Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
• Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
• Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.

Baltimore at Green Bay (-3) - We did not expect this but Green Bay, like we explained for Miami, is another clean sweep team. They look better statistically in all the right places against the Ravens. We are not worried about Green Bay’s line because the Ravens only have 21 sacks on the season and have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. This is a winnable game for the Pack and we expect Aaron Rodgers to remain hot. We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!!!

Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy bombed last week to end what was one hell of a tear. On the season this strategy is now 89-84-2. Pretty interesting that all you have to do is bet every underdog and you come out with a winning record. Underdogs in bold:

NY Jets at Buffalo (+3.5) - Bills lose

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5)

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Carolina

St. Louis (+9.5) at Chicago

Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati

Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis

Houston at Jacksonville - No action due to pick em

Denver at Kansas City (+5)

Oakland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Washington (+9.5)

New England at Miami (+4)

San Diego at Cleveland (+13.5)

Dallas at NY Giants (+2.5)

San Francisco at Seattle - No action due to pick em

Minnesota at Arizona (+3)

Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay

Knockout Pool - We are still rocking along here. Our knockout pool is down to 17 people. Hopefully you are still alive in yours. We caught some guff this week from some of you knockout pool players, saying our strategy is dumb and we need to chart out our picks. Well we stick our nose up at you. Our strategy is simple, Take the opening lines of the week and pick the home team with the highest line. So for you naysayers, we are still here winning and guess what? We get to play the Colts this week!

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Free NFL Week 12 Picks: Happy Turkey Day! We are sinking our teeth into some meaty breasts, legs and thighs!!!

RPJ Bets of the Day: We were only 2-2 last week and now stand at 32-28 on the season. We have been streaky, either coming in around 500 or blowing out the weekend with a 5-0 pick. We are going to kick off turkey day with a tribute to fleshy meat and pick three games on the day. We will be back on Saturday with the rest of our picks.

Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5) - This is definitely a scary line. The Lions fought admirably last week and pulled the W against the Browns. They ended up smashing up their two best players in Stafford and Megatron; both are doubtful for tomorrow. You never know what you will get with Green Bay but it appears that their O-line is coming together and they pulled nice wins at home against Dallas and San Francisco. Then you look at this series and you realize that Green Bay has covered in 6 of the last 7. We are scared of the 10.5 points but we think the best team will win and will win big. We are taking Green Bay to win and cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
• Packers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games.
• Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite.

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5) - Nothing like betting against the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Something the whole family can enjoy together; even your crazy Uncle Joe will get on board. One thing is consistent this year with the Raiders and that is the fact that they follow up every win with a huge loss. Beat KC 13-10, lose 23-3 at home to Denver; beat the Eagles 13-9 and lose to the Jets 38-0; beat the Bengals 20-17 and lose to the Cowboys 56-3. Well we filled in the last score but we have no reason to think otherwise. We do not think this game will be close at any point. Also, the betting public is demented on this one based on last week’s results. 54% of the money is on the Raiders at time of print. We look at a team’s body of work in the NFL and do not focus on the game to game. Do not bet with the public in this game. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!!

Oakland

• Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
• Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

NY Giants at Denver (+6) - Get on the bus. It is pick on Denver Broncos time. Not only has Denver lost 4 in a row, they have lost 4 in a row ATS. Their smallest margin of loss over this stretch was 10 points to the lowly Washington Redskins. The Broncos lost to Pittsburgh at home by 18, lost to San Diego at home by 29 and will lose to the Giants by a margin larger than 6 points. Also, during this 4 game losing stretch, the Broncos were outgained on the ground by 88, 54, 146 and 59. Now the Giants come to town and will continue this domination. The Giants had their own 4 game losing streak but broke through last week against the Falcons. We will look for them to keep rolling. We are betting the Giants to win and cover!!!

NY Giants

• Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
• Giants are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.
• Giants are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 15-32-2 ATS in their last 49 games in November.

Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy nailed another huge weekend. It was 10-5-1 and is now 83-74-2 on the season. Just a few weeks ago this thing was many games under 500 and we almost stopped tracking it. These late season underdogs are really helping Vegas make their money back. If you have been getting burned betting on the favorites then switch to this. It has nailed it for the last month. Underdogs in bold.

Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5)

Oakland (+13.5) at Dallas

NY Giants at Denver (+6)

Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta

Miami at Buffalo (+3)

Cleveland (+14) At Cincinnati

Indianapolis at Houston (+3)

Carolina (+3) at NY Jets

Washington (+9) at Philadelphia

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Kansas City (+13.5) at San Diego

Jacksonville (+3) at San Francisco

Arizona at Tennessee - no line yet

Chicago (+10.5) at Minnesota

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - No line yet

New England (+3) at New Orleans

Knockout Pool Strategy - We are getting closer and closer to having a winner in our big knockout pool. We can smell the $$$$$ coming our way. With just a few upsets more we will be good to go. This week is a solid time to take the Bengals. Bengals are coming off the dreadful Oakland trip, just ask Philly about that one, and the Browns are coming off a deflating, season busting loss to the Lions. Week 13 here we come.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Free NFL Week 11 Winning Picks: Time to separate the men from the boys!

The NFL is gearing up for an awesome second half of the season. Will the Saints and Colts go undefeated? Will the Benglas win their division? How many more superstars will get knocked out: Westbrook, Turner, Ronnie Brown, etc… How many more gay slurs can Larry Johnson fit in the rest of the season? Should be a great rest of the season.

RPJ Syndicate Picks: We were 6-3 last week and are now 30-26 on the season. These are our straight picks and we are really zeroing in on the NFL right now.

Washington at Dallas (-10.5) - Cowboys laid a big fat egg in Green Bay last week. The Redskins scored more than 17 points for the first time this season and won a game. Only reason they won was because Orton was knocked out but that is inconsequential. The Cowboys will not pull a dud against an NFC East foe. No way, no how.  The Skins have only covered 1 of their last 4 and the Cowboys have only not covered 1 in their last 4 and both were last week. Look for a fired up Cowboys team to take it to the Skins. The Skins Defense did not respond until Orton was knocked out of the game. Trust Flash Flash, he was there, the Skins are terrible and the Cowboys are not as bad as they looked. On top of that, the Cowboys win a statistical sweep of the important metrics we track and should be able to run the ball up and down the field and keep the Skins offense off the field. We are looking for a game along the lines of 27-10. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!

Washington

• Redskins are 3-7-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Redskins are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
• Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
• Redskins are 3-11-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• Redskins are 1-4-3 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
• Redskins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
• Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Redskins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5) - The Giants have not won a game since playing Oakland on October 11, losing 4 in a row. It is amazing how Oakland’s power of Suck transferred to the Giants and have brought them down as well. The Giants loss to the Chargers was heartbreaking and they had the bye week to let their skid really sink in. It will be interesting to see how the G-men respond. tom Coughlin made the San Diego game a “must win” game and they did not win. The Giants are a professional bunch and any team with a Manning on it is pretty much guaranteed to compete so that brings us to the Falcons. The Falcons lost Michael Turner last week and that is a major blow. Snelling, his replacement averaged about 3 yards a carry last week and Norwood is still banged up. Ryan is having some growing pains this season and the Giants nasty pass rush is not one to help reverse any struggles. The Giants will be too much for the Falcons to handle right now. We are betting the Giants to win and cover!!!

Atlanta

Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11.

NY Giants

• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
• Giants are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
• Giants are 39-19-3 ATS in their last 61 vs. NFC.

New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay - We really like to torture ourselves. As soon as we got on the Saints bandwagon, they go and lose three ATS in a row to the likes of Atlanta, Carolina and St. Louis. C’mon now Saints!!! Well we are going back to the well again this week. The Saints owe us per se. Tampa Bay is hot right now as well. They beat Green Bay and should have beat Miami last week. We know they donot have the fire power to compete with the Saints and we expect their rookie QB to make some mistakes pressing the action. Sharper pick 6 anybody? So now we are going to look at some stats so you do not think we are betting out of spite, maybe a little spite, but not a lot of spite. Saints run for more than 50 yards more per game, 4.7 versus 4.0 yards per rush per game, complete 47% of their 3rd down conversions to the Bucs 30% and the Bucs D gives up 167 yards per game on the ground (2nd worst in the league), 4.9 yards per rush and lets teams convert 42% of their third down attempts. Also, the Bucs D only has 17 sacks on the season so they will not get to Brees. This will be a long, rude, awakening for Tampa Bay. The Saints win and cover!

New Orleans

• Saints are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
• Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• Saints are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• Saints are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Underdog Strategy: The underdog strategy is freakin on fire. The underdog strategy was 10-5 last week and is now 73-69-1 on the season. This thing has been hot. Right when we were going to write this strategy off it turned real fast and is now crushing it. Underdog is in bold.

Miami (+3) at Carolina - Already 1-0 this week

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+2)

Washington (+10.5) at Dallas

Cleveland (+3.5) at Detroit

San Francisco (+6.5) at Green Bay

Buffalo (+9) at Jacksonville

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+10)

Seattle (+10.5) at Minnesota

Atlanta (+6.5) at NY Giants

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11)

Arizona at St. Louis (+9.5)

San Diego at Denver - no line yet

NY Jets (+10.5) at New England

Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5)

Philadelphia at Chicago (+3)

Tennessee (+4.5) at Houston

Knockout Pool Strategy: Hopefully you are like us right now and still alive in your knockout pool. We are down to about 20-25 people in ours and we are feeling good about the NFL right now. We love our pick this week. Remember the basic rules for your knockout pool. 1) Never bet on a road team 2) never save teams for later in the season. All you need to do is pick the team with the highest opening line that is playing at home. We know some people will take Detroit this week to try and get lucky. We say good luck. There is no reason to ever select a terrible team.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Free NFL Week 10 Winning Picks: We will make you so much money you will be wiping your arse with cash! And the Colin Cowherd NFL bet of the year!

RPJ $yndicate Picks - We were 2-2 last week and are now 24-23 on the season. Monday night football saved us from a downer weekend. In rare form, we are coming at you with a large amount of picks this week. Sometimes it is just a perfect mix of systems and we bet heavy on the weekend. This is one of those weekends. We are coming at these games hard and expecting our best weekend yet. We are going to wipe our ass with money this week!!!

Tampa Bay at Miami (-10) - On paper this game looks really ugly. We know Tampa is coming off a nice home win but they still do not have a good defense, do not have any good skill players and do not have much of anything else. Miami should really dominate this game. The Fins rush for half a yard more per rush, 55 more rushing yards per game, is 20% better converting offensive third downs, Tampa gives up 163 yards rushing per game (3rd worst in the league), gives up 4.8 yards per rush and is just terrible all around. The creamsicle unis will not work this week. This is actually Colin Cowherd’s NFL bet of the season. He rarely bets on NFL Games and he said on his show today that he called Vegas and was putting a lot of money on this game. He loves Miami, says they are the second most physical team in the league to the Steelers and the Bucs are the worst team in the NFL. We agree on all accounts. We are betting the Dolphins to win and cover with confidence!!!

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5) - Minnesota at home coming off a bye against Detroit. This is a lot of points but a rested Vikings D will cause all sorts of problems for the Lions and a rested Vikes’ O-line will open up wide lanes for A-Pete and give Favre all the time he needs. Detroit gives up 4.65 yards per rush. That is a recipe for a loss if we ever heard one. Vikes have 30 sacks, Detroit has given up 26. Heard enough yet? We are taking Minnesota to win and cover this monster number!

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) - Cincy has not had much luck against their hated rivals in years past. This is the same place where Carson Palmer shredded his knee a couple of seasons ago. However, this Bengals team is like none we’ve seen in recent years. Their D gets after it and they are running the ball very, very well. They will need to do it again this week to beat the Steelers at home. The teams have identical records (6-2). The Bengals are undefeated on the road. The Steelers are undefeated at home. What will give? We think the Bengals will cover if not win outright. The Bengals want this game more. In fact, this is probably the game they had circled on their calendars all year. Carson Palmer looks great and he is locked in with Ochocinco. That spells trouble for the Steelers secondary. They key to this game will be the Bengals receivers against the secondary of the Steelers. We think they can handle Pittsburgh and Ochocinco should have a solid game. That will free up room for Cedric Benson to run between the tackles. Also, consider that the road team in this match-up is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Take the Bengals and the points.

New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis - We are still on the Saints bandwagon even though they have lost two covers in a row for us. We are going to get on this horse one more time. Three times is the charm right? Only thing that has us a little nervous is that the Saints D gives up 4.5 yards per rush on defense. Remember what DeAngelo Williams and Stewart did against the Saints. However, we think the Saints will get up early and pour it on and this will limit the Rams running game. Yes we said that last week but this week we think there is a better chance of a 2 TD win. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!

Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5) - Jump on the Vince Young bandwagon. Vince Young is a winner! Tennessee has covered in both of their wins the last two weeks. We just do not know what the Bills have going on for them Trent Edwards is back but there will be no TO in the lineup. This game is going to be all about the ball control and that favors the Titans in a big way. Tennessee runs for 50 more yards per game and is averaging 5.4 yards per rush. That is sick for a team with a 2-6 record. Now you combine those Tennessee rushing stats against Buffalo’s defense and your money will be flowing to the Titans. The Bills give up 174 yards per game on the ground (worst in the league) and teams are running at a 5.2 yards per run clip. We are betting Tennessee to win and cover!!!

Seattle at Arizona (-8.5) - No Super Bowl hangover for this bunch. The Cards are nasty. Zona had their mini blip against the Panthers but they have been solid. Warner absolutely destroyed the Bears in Chicago. and has covered 4 of their last 5 ATS in general. The Cards defense is not playing that badly as well and we look for that to be the big difference maker in this game. The Cards defense is good against the run and excellent in preventing opposing offenses from converting third downs. They are actually best in the league in that category. We are betting the Cards to win and cover!

Dallas (-3) at Green Bay - Dallas is hot and Green Bay is not. The Packers can not get out of the way of their offensive line injuries and Dallas and D. Ware will tee it up against them. Rodgers is banged up and we would not be surprised if he does not make it through this game. Dallas is on a hot streak, winning 4 in a row and covering three in a row. Packers fought hard against the Vikings and then tanked it last week against the Bucs. We like the Pack but not with their patch work line right now. Look for Dallas to exploit all of Green Bay’s weaknesses. You can not give up 37 sacks through 8 games and survive the season. We are betting Dallas to win and cover!

New England at Indianapolis (-3) - As much as we have a man crush on Peyton Manning and the Colts we think this is where their winning streak comes to an end. Tom Brady looks like he has sanded off his early season rust, they are running again and Randy Moss is making big plays. The Pats have played a brutal early season schedule and has taken care of business to the tune of 6-2. New England started the year 3-2 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. Tom Brady didn’t look comfortable with his receivers and opponents didn’t seem to have much trouble slowing down the Pats’ offense. But over their last three games, the Patriots are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 121-24. These teams look pretty similar on paper and we expect a great game but we think the Pats are the hotter, more complete team right now. We are betting the Pats to cover and will probably play the money line on top of taking the points!

Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland - Nothing like Monday Night Football and the Cleveland Browns to snap a decent team out of a losing 4 out of 5 funk. We are still not sure how the Browns ever beat Buffalo and the amazing thing is that the Browns have a QB rating around 40!!!! That is even worse than the Raiders. This game really needs zero analysis because we know the Ravens Defense will play into the MNF effect and be fired up. Browns have zero chance. We are betting Baltimore to win and cover!!!

Underdog Strategy - This strategy kicked ass last week going 10-3. After a slow and erratic start this plan has rebounded and is almost 500. The strategy sits at 63-64-1. All we do here is track what would happen if we bet on every single underdog each week. As dumb as this sounds there are some seasons where this pays off huge. Underdogs are in bold.

Chicago (+3) at San Francisco

Atlanta at Carolina (+2)

Tampa Bay (+10) at Miami

Detroit (+16.5) at Minnesota

Jacksonville (+7) at NY Jets

Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh

New Orleans at St. Louis (+13.5)

Buffalo (+6.5) at Tennessee

Denver at Washington (+3.5)

Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland

Seattle (+8.5) at Arizona

Dallas at Green Bay (+3)

Philadelphia (+2) at San Diego

New England (+3) at Indianapolis

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10.5)

Knockout Pool Strategy - Seattle had us nervous last week after a lackluster first half but we kept our streak alive. Here is our history and our Week 10 pick. You gotta love that we still have some of the best teams in the league alive for the home stretch. We can smell a huge payday!!!

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

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