Arkansas Razorbacks
2009-2010 Winning Bowl Picks: We pick winners for the rest of the bowl season!
We are sitting here a pissed off 3-7 in this very short bowl season. There are still 24 games to go and we are extremely ticked off. This is a big time repeat of last year when we sucked it in the early games and then scrappy Jonesed it for the rest of the season barely making a living. Our analysis is no longer worth writing and we are going to break down the remaining games in one of three ways:
1) RPJ special sauce - These are our magic special sauce picks. Our secret bread and butter. The way we pick these are proprietary and we do not share how we pick them. You won’t give a damn anyways because our bowl picks have been terrible. Your best bet is to pick against us. These picks are now 2-4 on the season.
2) Statistical picks - We base these picks purely on math. When one team is statistically better in every single category we track, we pick that team to win the game. So far this type of pick is 0-1 on the season with Nevada blow it for us.
3) The Defense running pick - This is when we pick the underdog to cover when that underdog gives up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and the favorite does not. These picks win outright 70% of the time on a historical basis. On the season these picks are 1-1, with Central Florida losing and UNC covering.
We will probably come at you with some detailed analysis on some of the bigger games but for now we will show you our picks and the lines we took them. On with the Picks…..
Monday December 28, 2009
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M versus Georgia (-7) - RPJ Pick takes Texas A&M to cover! (loss 3-8)
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Eagle Bank Bowl: UCLA (-3.5) versus Temple - RPJ Pick takes UCLA to win and cover (Win 4-8)
Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin versus Miami (-3.5) - Defense Run pick selects Wisconsin to cover! (Win 5-8)
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green (-1) versus Idaho - RPJ pick takes Bowling Green to win and cover! (Loss 5-9)
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska versus Arizona (-1) - Defense Run pick selects Nebraska to cover! (Win 6-9)
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force versus Houston (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes Houston to win and cover! (Loss 6-10)
Sun Bowl: Stanford versus Oklahoma (-10) - RPJ pick takes Stanford to cover! (Win 7-10)
Texas Bowl: Navy versus Missouri (-6.5) - RPJ pick takes Missouri to win and cover! (Loss 7-11)
Insight Bowl: Iowa State versus Minnesota (-2.5) - RPJ pick takes Iowa State to cover! (Win 8-11)
Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Tennessee versus Virginia Tech (-5) - RPJ pick takes Va. Tech to win and cover! (Win 9-11)
Friday January 1, 2010
Outback Bowl: Northwestern versus Auburn (-7) - RPJ pick takes Northwestern to cover! (Win 10-11)
Gator Bowl: Florida State versus West Virginia (-2.5) - RPJ takes WVU to win and cover! (Loss 10-12)
Capital One Bowl: LSU versus Penn State (+2) - Stat pick takes Penn St. to win and cover! (Win 11-12)
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-4) versus Ohio State - Defense run pick takes Ohio St. to cover! (Win 12-12)
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati versus Florida (-12.5) - Stat pick takes Florida to win and cover! (Win 13-12)
Saturday, January 2, 2010
International Bowl: Northern Illinois versus South Florida (-7) - RPJ pick takes N. Illinois to cover! (Loss 13-13)
Papa Johns Bowl: UCONN versus South Carolina (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes UCONN to cover! (14-13)
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss (-3) versus Oklahoma State - Defense Run pick takes Ok. St. to cover! (loss 14-14)
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-7.5) versus East Carolina - RPJ pick takes Arkansas to win and cover! (Loss 14-15)
Alamo Bowl: Michigan State versus Texas Tech (-8) - RPJ takes Texas Tech to win and cover! (Win 15-15)
Monday January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State versus TCU (-7) - Stat pick takes TCU to win and cover!
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Orange Bowl: Iowa versus Georgia Tech (-3.5) - RPJ takes Georgia Tech to win and cover!
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
GMAC Bowl: Troy versus Central Michigan (-3.5) - Stat pick takes C. Michigan to win and cover!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
BCS National Championship Game: Texas versus Alabama (-4) - RPJ takes Texas to cover!
NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: Go with the flow: Chicks and Picks part 2!
We were a solid 6-3-1 last weekend and we are now 53-49-2 on the season. We have a ridiculous amount of picks this week. We are excited for all of the freaks that will be out at NCAA games this weekend. Halloween night at Autzen might be the most insane place on earth Saturday night. We can not wait. We are back mentioning our clean sweep strategy. What this means is we have numerous stats that we look at that impacts a team’s ability to control the ball on both sides of the ball. Based on our historical analysis of this aspect of our betting algorithms, these clean sweep games provide tremendous opportunities to win bets.
Friday, October 30, 2009
West Virginia (-3) at South Florida - Love love love kicking off the week with this game. South Florida has come back to earth. For the third consecutive season, an undefeated, nationally ranked USF team has fallen off its perch and into a mid-year skid. West Virginia is winning. Why is this line where it is? This should be a 7-10 point line. This line opened at -3 and has creeped up to -3.5 in some places. Majority of the money is on West Virginia and that has us slightly nervous. We think this is an easy bet to kick off the week. No ATS numbers to speak of but check this out. We have a virtual clean sweep. West Virginia is better rushing the ball, yards per rush, offensive 3rd down conversion percentage, stopping the run (total yards and yards per rush) and defensive 3rd down percentage. We love these types of games. West Virginia wins and covers easily!
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Rutgers at UCONN (-7) - UCONN remains the best cover team in the country with a record of 7-0 ATS. Betting can be simple and who are we to say UCONN breaks their streak. When you combine this with the fact that Rutgers is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against UCONN, you start to get excited. Start your Halloween off right and bet UCONN. UCONN wins and covers!!!
Cincinnati (-15) at Syracuse - This game should be haunted house frightening. Cincy is a beast right now and this game meets a lot of our clean sweep requirements. This will make you feel a lot better. Cincy rushes for more yards and at a better yards per rush basis; they control the clock better on offense; are significantly tighter against the run and protect the QB a lot better. Tony Pike is not going to play but Collaros has filled in just fine. We are betting Cincy to win and cover!
Cincinnati
- Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
- Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
- Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Orange are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
- Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
- Orange are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Mustangs are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Mustangs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Golden Hurricane are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Golden Hurricane are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Golden Hurricane are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
- Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Golden Hurricane are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Golden Hurricane are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games on turf.
- Golden Hurricane are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Golden Hurricane are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Golden Hurricane are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
NC State at FSU -8: If you followed us all season, you know we have loved NC State and their QB. You would also know that we like ganing up on FSU and Bobby Bowden. This week, however, we think FSU takes it. The ATS numbers are pretty god for FSU, but that is not why we like them. We like them mosltly because they are playing inspired football ever since Bowden came under fire. We think they will be up for this game and ready to roll. Plus, FSU just has much, much more talent than NC State does. Take the Seminoles and give the points.
Ole Miss at Auburn +4.5: This is a HUGE game for both teams. Both teams need this winn to save some credibility for their seasons and to keep Bowl chances alive. We have always thought both team are overrated. The Rebels have been hit-or-miss all season, and Jevon Snead does not look like the QB he was last year. The edge in this game, despite being on the road, goes to the Rebels. Chizik is not a good coach and Snead can get the win on the road. We love that Vegas is giving Auburn no respect at home. Take the Rebels and give the points.
Georgia (+15) neutral location versus Florida - Does Florida look right to anybody out there? The Florida defense looks good but not dominating. Tim Tebow looks terrible since his concussion. Florida’s offense is not dynamic enough, is relying too much on a not right Tebow and is not focused on getting the ball in the playmakers’ hands. Something is not right with the Gators. Florida is coming off two less than inspiring efforts and Georgia righted the ship last week with a solid and needed win at Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs are still a bit miffed at the Florida coach for calling two timeouts in the final minute of last year’s 49-10 blowout, a ploy that Meyer described — apparently with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek — as merely a way to get a few extra carries for a little-used running back. The picture of Urban Meyer calling a timeout hangs all over Georgia’s training facility. The Bulldogs get to see it when they’re changing into their uniforms, when they’re lifting weights, when they’re heading off to meetings. Not sure Georgia has the horses to win this game outright but the combination of revenge and Florida sucking of late has on on the side of the Dawgs. We are betting Georgia to cover!
Georgia
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Penn State (-17) at Northwestern - This is another clean sweep game and a blatant one at that. Not even worth going into how inferior this Northwestern team is. Penn State is on a roll. 4 straight wins, 4 straight blowout wins and 4 straight covers. Northwestern is spotty at best. 17 points is a lot but expect a better performance than the Michigan performance last week and that was 35-10 on the road. Penn State wins and covers!!
Penn State
- Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games in October.
- Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
- Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win
- Wildcats are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win.
- Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Yellow Jackets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite
- Commodores are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Commodores are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
- Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Eastern Michigan at Arkansas -34.5: We are calling this the Bigfoot Bowl becuase it is so very rare that a SEC team schedules an out of conference cupcake team at home, it is like seeing Bigfoot. NOT!! The SEC is comical and the pollsters should be pounding the Razorbacks (and every other SEC team) for these types of games. That said, we know why these games happen and we are going to take advantage and win some scratch for us. Petrino will have no problem running up the score in this game. It will not be close. Take the Razorbacks and give the points.
USC (-4) at Oregon - This is the game of the week and one of the biggest games in the history of Oregon football. The nation will probably not give a crap but consider this…. USC is a top 5 BCS team so a win on the road against a top ten team elevates them against the one loss teams and the no loss teams. If Oregon wins, they will certainly jump into the mix for top 5 BCS standings. We all know that November is a mess for BCS leaders and any upset is possible. Whichever of these teams wins out, if they win out, will have an edge over the Bama/Florida loser if both pay undefeated and will have the edge over every one loss team. Now onto the game, which is what we are here to do. USC is 2-4 straight up in Oregon in their last 6. Forget the spread, Autzen is brutal. If you have never been there you just do not get it. It has the smallest space in all of NCAA football in terms of fans from the field. Fans are literally vertical straight up from the outline of the field. Now add the freak show that is the Eugene Oregon hippies and this is going to be an amazing scene in terms of freaks and noise. Regardless of USC’s record the last few years, they have struggled the last three seasons in the BCS and are only covering 35% of the time. Now we know Barkley won in South Bend and Columbus, but this is another animal. Sorry Golden Homers and Horseshoers, Autzen is a special animal. Mark Sanchez choked there two years ago filling in for the injured Booty. USC contained Dixon but could not make up for Sanchez’s mistakes. We love betting teams we think will win straight up when they are underdogs and Oregon is that animal this week. You know we are USC homers but we love making money as well. Oregon is a no brainer this week. Take Oregon to cover!
USC
- Trojans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
- Ducks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Ducks are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Ducks are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
- Ducks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Ducks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Ducks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Ducks are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
NCAA Football Week 7 Picks: Picks, Chicks and a Salute to Texas RPJ $tyle!
We are 39-39-1 heading into the weekend while waiting for the outcome of the PITT/Rutgers game. So far we are 1-1 on the week. We are very, very afraid this week because we love a ton of games. We usually end up with 3-8 games but this week we are unleashing the fury Mitch!!! When these weeks come, when all of our models and opinions sync up, we hammer the games. This week we are going to discuss some of the marquee matchups and then sling picks for the obvious games. Enjoy the picks. May your wallets be stuffed, your beer fridge full and your girl’s face on your (insert noun here)! It is Red River rivalry and USC/Notre Dame week. We are fired up.
These teams do not need any detailed analysis Games: These picks are pretty straight forward and are set up as either a good team versus a bad team or a bad team versus a horrific team. We are not going to go into detailed analysis to save our carpel tunnel syndrome. Feel free to use our website and our free matchup tools. Click here to stroll through our free data! Just click on this link, find the game you want to analyze and click away on the matchup, supergrid and or preview functions. There is tons of free data for you to use on your own. Bodog has been an awesome partner for us and if you like our picks, which you should of late, help us out by clicking on one of the banner advertisements to sign up for a Bodog account and to get free money.
Kent State at E. Michigan (+6.5) - Give us some credit, you have to respect anyone that is going to drop any sort of knowledge on a Kent State-EMU game!!!! Sometimes we just make it easy for you. Eastern Michigan is one of the worst cover teams and teams in the country, sitting at 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the season. So do not be deceived that Eastern Michigan almost beat Northwestern. Other than that, they have been pounded by the likes of Army and Temple to name a few of the teams they lost to. They also lost to Michigan and Central Michigan but that was expected. We expect Kent State to rebound from the horrible loss to Bowling Green last week. The favorite in this series is also 5-2 ATS in their last seven. We are betting Kent State to win and cover!!!
Hawaii at Idaho (-8) - Do you know who the best cover team is in the country right now? We do and it is the Idaho Vandals. Idaho is 5-1 overall and 6-0 ATS. Their lone loss came at Washington and this team actually won at Northern Illinois and Colorado State. Very impressive. Who are we to bet against them. We love any opportunity to bet on the Vandals!! We are betting Idaho to win and cover!!!
Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-6.5) - Central Michigan is one of the best cover teams in the nation sitting at 5-1. With their lone ATS loss at Buffalo by 1.5 points or so, depending on where you got the line. We also have a bizarre man crush on Dan LeFevour and we are unlikely to bet against him. We have been lucky that he rewarded us nicely two years ago when he was 100% healthy and has rewarded us again this year. We are betting Central Michigan to win and cover!!!
Houston at Tulane (-17) - Well Toolame burned us last week but we are persistent. Houston will run and gun and sling it all over the place. Toolame is not that good and still have the swine flu lingering around campus. Never a good combo..bad football and swine flu. Our boy Case Keenum is going to put 50 on these guys. We are betting Houston to win and cover!!!
BYU (-17) at San Diego State - Another battle of the shit show matchups. BYU has talent. San Diego State does not. BYU = 4-2 ATS. San Diego State = 1-4 ATS. San Diego State basically loses to who they are supposed to lose to. See losses to UCLA, Idaho and Air Force and they beat who they are supposed to beat most of the time. BYU will beat San Diego State and they will beat them easily. We are betting BYU to win and cover!!!
Kentucky at Auburn (-13.5) - If you have not picked up on it yet, bet against Kentucky every week you can in the SEC. They snuck one in on us at South Carolina last week but we got nice covers with Alabama and Florida. We are going to ride the anti-Kentucky bandwagon once again. We still have no clue as to how this program is in any Div 1 conference. They are terrible even for SEC standards. Auburn wins and covers!!!
Ohio State (-13.5) at Purdue - Another certainty, Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten and covers most of the time. Just keep riding the wave. This is not rocket science. Ohio State has covered every Big Ten game this year (3-0) and Purdue has lost all of them (0-2). Ohio State is also 5-1 ATS on the season. Purdue is in a major transition year. New coach. New players. New offensive philosophy. They have been playing games hard, but they just don’t have the talent and cohesion OSU has. This game may be close in the first half, as the Boilermaker faithful will be out in full force and going bananas. However, OSU will pull away in the 2nd half. We are betting Ohio State to win and cover!!!
Illinois (-3) at Indiana - We love this game!! Runny has been to it in person a couple of times. It is like a battle of the two worse state fairs you can think of!!! These teams hate each other. The Hoosiers have been a HUGE surprise this year. The fact this team has even won one game is shocking. The Illini have also blown our minds with some of the worse play in college football (we picked this team to beat Mizzou outright in week one!!!!). Juice is a huge bust. Benn is having a terrible year. So, what will give in this sideshow of a game??? The Illini will give. They are favorites based on the rep and promise over the past few seasons. This team is not the team that played SC in the Rose Bowl. The Hoosiers will win outright. Take Indiana at home with the points.
Louisville at UCONN (-13)- Big East match-up with implications. The Huskies are looking to show their program is no fluke and the Cardinals are trying to salvage some respectability at home. UConn’s pogram IS solid. They are similar to Cincy. They are well coached and play hard. They will be stoked at home. The cover will be close, but the Huskies will still pull it out. This is another one of the brainless picks. UCONN is 5-0 against the spread. Always bet into strength. This line seems awfully high but bet it with confidence. Take the Huskies and give the points.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-3) - This game is a trap!! Beware!!! There is absolutely no logical reason to justify why the Hawkeyes are the dogs in this game. The Hawkeyes are arguably the best team in the Big 10. Wisconsin is having a down year. Although the Badgers are at home in Madison where it is extremely tough to play, this team is just not that good and they are certainly not playing to the level of Iowa right now. Further proof of the trap comes from the numbers: 68% of the money is on Iowa and the line opened Iowa -1. The line should have gone up, not down to the Badgers as favorites. VEGAS KNOWS!! Don’t fall for it!! Take Iowa to win and cover!
Washington at Arizona State (-6.5) - Is it us, or does ASU break your hearts every freakin’ year? Every year this team has the promise of being good, and every year, we bet them and bet them only to get left at the alter. Not this time!! The Huskies have an entirely new lease on life. After beating USC, they have shown they have some swagger and the guts to hang in there against anyone. They played the Irish super tough in the South Bend, so they have shown that road trips do not scare them. They will be ready for the PAC-10 game. ASU may win, but it will be within a TD. Take the Huskies and the points!
Stanford at Arizona (-4.5) - Very similar game to the Washington-ASU game. Stanford gets the edge for us despite being on the road. They are really well coached (Harbaugh may be one the best coaches in Div 1 football). Harbaugh gets more out of talent than any coach in the country (except for maybe Chris Peterson in Boise). They are a smart team. Zona is solid, too, but Stanford will be ready and they are playing with a chip on their shoulders for some national respect. Take the Cards and the points.
Arkansas at Florida (-25) - This game has “let down” written all over it. Everyone has anointed the Gators as national champs despite having half the season left to go. The Gators are in cruise control. They will be at home. They have not looked dominating at all. Not at all. The Razorbacks having nothing to lose and they will pull out all the stops. They have a solid QB in Ryan Mallett. He can straight sling it!!! The gators have not faced a QB this good all year. Remember Ole Miss last year? The Razorbacks could do the same thing. Plus, don’t underestimate Petrino. He is a good coach, and we know he can play dirty (just ask Arthur Blank and the Falcons). Look for Petrino to pull an Arkansas sweathog move and knock Tebow out of the game! Take the ‘Backs and the points.
Not the Red River Rivalry but the next best game of the week!
Southern California (-10) at Notre Dame - For months people (i.e. the media and dumb Domers) have been touting the Irish as a legit BCS championship contender and one of the best teams in the country. Guess what? Another year proves yet again that they are probably the most overrated program in all of sports. If they were in the SEC they would probably be ranked #5 in the country, but we know they are a joke. Michael Floyd is out for this game so that means the only threat they have is Golden Tate. That is not enough against this SC Defense. USC comes in with tons of swagger knowing that they have stomped this team in recent years. They also are playing inspired ball from rallying behind their fallen comrad, Stephon Johnson. USC relishes playing opponents on the road under the spotlight. Barkley knows he is the man for this team, and he is grasping control of the offense more and more each week. They destroyed Cal in Berkley two weeks ago, and that team had WAAAAAAAY more talent on both sides of the ball than this Irish team. This game will not be close. Look for a HUGE game from Taylor Mays as Clausen tries to test fate and go deep on this team. Mays will get him. Now that we got our USC homerness out of the way you really need to think about this game logically. Look at the line and what do you see? USC is favored, on the road, against the 25th rated team in the country, against the QB with the best QB rating in the country, a team with multiple 4th quarter comebacks and USC is playing a true freshmen. Did you just follow that sequence of logic? Makes you want to bet Notre Dame right? Well we always say that Vegas knows and Vegas set this line at ten points because Vegas knows all of the Notre Dame idiots will easily bet this game at USC -10. That line speaks volumes. If Notre Dame was any good the line would not be USC -10. Be safe, be smart and listen to Vegas. Plus, look at the picture below….could you feel remotely safe betting on a team with that guy leading the charge?What the hell does the “CC” stand for on the banana hammock on the dude on the left? How is he not getting crushed in the papers for this? Take USC and gladly give the points.
USC
- Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. INDEP.
- Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
- Trojans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
- Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Trojans are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
- Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Red River Rivalry Game of the week!
Oklahoma at Texas (-3) - The Sooners need this game more, but Texas is just too good right now. Bradford is not close to 100% and Stoops cannot win big games. McCoy is primed for a huge game. He will get it this week against the Sooners. Oklahoma is another one of those early season teams that had uncertainty on their O-line. This has not been solved due to injuries and Texas is going to bring a nasty defense to the Texas State Fair. If you watched last week’s game, Sam Bradford is not ready to go and one more week of practice will help but will certainly not make him comfortable. These teams look very similar on paper but we think the difference will be QB and O-line and Texas wins both of those matchups. And how could we forget Big Game Bob Stoops. Big Game Bob is 0-4 ATS in his last 4 in this series and we expect the pain to continue. We are betting Texas to win and cover!!!
Texas is up my ass somewhere!!!
Oklahoma
- Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Sooners are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Sooners are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.
- Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Texas
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Longhorns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
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Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis
NCAA Football Week 4 Free Picks: The Road Warrior Strategy
RPJ is sitting here at 19-21-1 and we love a lot of games this weekend. Quick sidebar on the Ole Miss loss last night. The play calling was hideous and execution was just as putrid. How does Ole Miss have #22 and barely get him the ball through three quarters. When they finally wake up and realize Dexter did not have enough touches they proceed to run wild over USC. Houston can suck my Nutts this morning.
If you have not familiarized yourself with our website, please do so. You can sign up to be a friend of ours on Facebook or follow us on Twitter. Just click the icon on the top left of the page. Also, we are affiliated with Bodog and giving 15% bonuses to anybody that signs up. Why do we mention this when we are 19-21-1? Because we care about our fans. There is still a bunch of BS going on right now in the online betting world and many vendors are accepting USA money but they are not paying it out. Bodog is safe on both ends. Do not get burned. Now on to this week’s picks. One common theme is we are expecting a lot of the Road teams to win so we are calling this the weekend of the Road Warrior.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Missouri at Nevada (+7) - No time like the present to launch the Road Warrior Pick strategy. This is Nevada’s home opener and we expect them to come out fighting since they are 0-2. The fact that the Pack is 0-2 at this point is disappointing, but not surprising. Beating Notre Dame was a long shot and we think the season will show that Colorado State is a decent football team. However, Nevada does not seem well prepared this season. Their coach has been there forever and it is probably time for a change. Missouri is 3-0 and coming off a pounding of Furman after Bowling Green almost stole one out from under Mizzou. Last year Missouri beat Nevada 69-17 and although revenge might be a factor for Nevada, we do not think they have the horses. The line is only 7 and we see Missouri winning by double digits. We are taking Missouri to win and cover!!!
Missouri
- Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Tigers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
- Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
- Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
- Wolf Pack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wolf Pack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Tigers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite.
- Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Mississippi State.
- Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
- Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Arkansas (+17.5) at Alabama - Arkansas has itself the best QB in the SEC right now. Quiet Tebow fans!!! He was terrible last weekend and showed why he will not be a top NFL QB. He is a gimmick QB. On the other hand, Ryan Mallett kicks ass. Arkansas lost their shootout with Georgia last week but Mallett looks damn good. The defense is the issue. We think Arkansas can score on anybody, even the hyped Bama defense. After Bama got lucky wearing down a Virginia Tech team they scheduled the typical Saban games against FIU and North Texas. We would not be surprised to see a high scoring affair but Arkansas will keep this closer than 17.5 points. Head-to-Head numbers are key in this game, just like in the LSU game so read on. We are betting Arkansas to cover!!!
- Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
- Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Crimson Tide are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Alabama.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
- Golden Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
- Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Golden Bears are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Ducks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Ducks are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
- Ducks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Cal has won the last three ATS and 4 out of the last 5
- Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
- Hurricanes are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Hokies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September.
- Hokies are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hokies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Gators are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Gators are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
- Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
- Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Gators are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Gators are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
- Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.
- Gators are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
- Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Wildcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Hawkeyes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
- Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Penn State.
- Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Golden Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
- Golden Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
- Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
- Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Jayhawks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on turf.
- Jayhawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
- Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
- Jayhawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win.
- Jayhawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Jayhawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in September.
- Jayhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games.
- Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
- Jayhawks are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Jayhawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jayhawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Zips are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
- Zips are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chippewas are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Chippewas are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.
- Chippewas are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.
- Chippewas are 13-4-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Chippewas are 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
- Chippewas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Chippewas are 32-13-3 ATS in their last 48 games overall.
- Chippewas are 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 games on turf.
- Fighting Illini are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS loss.
- Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Fighting Illini are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Buckeyes are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 conference games.
- Buckeyes are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Ohio State.
- Fighting Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Bulls are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Seminoles are 5-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Seminoles are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Seminoles are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Huskies are 27-55-4 ATS in their last 86 games overall.
- Huskies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Huskies are 23-53-2 ATS in their last 78 conference games.
- Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Huskies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Huskies are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Cardinal are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Week 11 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer Lives to Pick Again!
Georgia (minus 12) at Kentucky — After being thoroughly humbled by the Gators last weekend, the Dawgs are left to pick up the pieces and try to stay positive for the remainder of a season for which they started as the number 1 ranked team in the land. Kentucky is suspect offensively, and simple does not have the weapons for this fight. Richt is a heck of a coach and will have his boys primed to rebound against a team that gave up 63 to Florida. I love Georgia to cover.
Arkansas (plus 13) at South Carolina — After getting beat down by Florida, Arkansas has been competitive in four straight games, including last week’s “upset” (if you can ever truly call an SEC team betting a Conference USA team an “upset”) of Tulsa. You may say that they’ve turned the corner under first year coach Booby Petrino. I say that they’re due for an off game and South Carolina shows up for this one at home. I’m taking the Gamecocks to win by a bunch.
Wyoming (plus 26.5) at Tennessee — The 114th ranked team in total offense (UT) brings the noise against the 111th ranked team in that category, each with lame duck coaches and a fan base that mailed it in for this season weeks ago. Yawn. The Vols rally around coach Fulmer and win by 40.
Florida (minus 24) at Vanderbilt — 24 points is an awful lot to give a team that has only given up 24 points to 1 opponent (Georgia) and outside of that game hasn’t been beaten by more than 3 points. Florida has been blowing people out of the water and is clicking on all cylinders though. Tough call. I’ll take Vandy and the points.
Alabama (minus 3) at LSU – A word about LSU’s predilection towards giving up interceptions returned for touchdowns this year. There are many bad things that can happen to a team in a football game. However, I humbly submit that no play provides the kind of emotionally-deflating, game-changing, hard-charging kick in the crotch that giving up a pick-6 does. Fortunately for most fans, pick-6’s happen so rarely for their team that it’s hardly worth focusing on. Maybe it’s once a season, if at all. Unfortunately, that is not the case for fans of the LSU Tigers this year. Indeed, LSU’s starting quarterback for this weekend’s matchup against Alabama, redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, has to date thrown 10 interceptions, 5 of which have been returned for touchdowns. Think about it: 5 INT returns for touchdown. Yes, that is the most in any QB’s career in over 115 years of LSU football — AND HE’S ONLY HALFWAY THROUGH HIS FRESHMAN YEAR!!! AND HE DIDN’T START UNTIL THE FOURTH GAME!!! AND HE’S IN A TWO QUARTERBACK SYSTEM!!!!! Hopefully, LSU has spent this week teaching every offensive player that, if the pass is not coming to them, they need to be sprinting back towards their own endzone the second the ball leaves Lee’s hands. Hopefully, one of them will be able to make the touchdown-saving tackle that has heretofore been totally fucking absent this season.
In any event, this column is about the game, and it could be a good one. A lot of factors point to LSU in this game. Throw out the Georgia game and Alabama has beaten exactly two teams with a winning record this season (Ole Miss and Kentucky) by an average of 3.5 points. The number 1 spot is a heavy burden for a young team like Alabama that is not used to the spotlight, even for a team that is guided by Saban’s laserbeam focus on the next game. LSU has played two quality teams and has absolutely crapped the bed in both games. Sure, the LSU nation will be on an emotional high for Saban’s return to Baton Rouge as the coach of a rival team, not just in their conference, but in their own division. Sure, LSU is loaded with talent and due to show up sooner or later. However, I just can’t see LSU getting up to win this one. Alabama is just a better coached team than LSU is right now, especially defensively. It is clear to everyone that Miles will not be inclined to take big risks throwing the ball early on with a redshirt freshman QB with a history of blow-ups (see the above paragraph). Saban can defensively gameplan better than anyone in the nation and he already has by far the best rush defense in the SEC. LSU will be looking for easy plays to start — handing it to Charles Scott with maybe a couple of bubble screens and short passes to their TE (Richard Dickson). If I know this, then Saban definitely knows this and will be ready for it. My pick is Alabama to win and cover.
Your truly,
Backwoods Southern Lawyer
Week 10 Free NCAA Football Winning Picks: The Real Deal
Here is the deal. We went 0-9 in NCAA football last weekend. We are not some posers that say we win all the time and when we say our money is where our mouth is, we mean it. We lost a ton of money last weekend. Enough money to make paying the bills difficult, enough money to eat Ramen for the week cause we can’t take our ladies out to dinner, enough money so that the bank accounts literally registered zero after Saturday. Runny had to go work the street corner to dig up enough scratch to bet NFL games on Sunday (mind you, he does love him some workin’ corners, so it wasn’t too bad-haha!). Alright, that was a joke but when we say we feel the pain and share the gain, we EFFING mean it. Last weekend hurt a lot. We know we are slinging ads at you, trying to build a brand here and then follow that up with shiznitty picks and we know you wish you could meet us in a dark alley and beat the tar out of us. We are pissed too, we are a lot lighter in the wallets and we wish we had answers for last weekend. Last weekend was last weekend and if you followed us closely we went 0-9 on Saturday and then we went 9-0 Sunday through Tuesday. You know what that says…the gambling gods tried to give us a big EFF you and we came back strong. Our confidence in our models is unflappable we will turn this ship around and put money in your wallets before the year is out. Enough with the self loathing and on with the self promotion. Ha ha.
Well we have been rehashing our awful, awful weekend and we have to just put our nose to the grindstone and chalk up a sacrifice to the gambling gods. We did recover nicely though with an undefeated Sunday, Monday and Tuesday so we made all of our cash back pretty quickly. Also, if the Philadelphia Phillies can win the World Series, we all know miracles can happen. Due to superstitions we will never post anything from the Urban Dictionary ever again. So this week we are going to come at you with news of the weird and of course the hot chicks you tell us you love. Check out this story….Pub spat erupts after feces found in ice cream. If your gelato smells like poo we have a suggestion, DON’T EAT IT!!!
RPJ $yndicate is 29-36-2 on the season
Flash Flash is 14-8-2 on the season
Runny Pelvis is 19-20-1 on the season
Since we felt the pain last week and made your bank accounts lighter we are going to extend some free cash your way. Simply click on the Bodog ad in this post, sign up for a sportsbook account and we will give you an extra 10% on your initial deposit. Giving you free cash is the least we can do after our poor performance.
To make your RPJ experience even better we have also added some additional features. If at any point, you want to know what the lines are for all current sporting events, click on our LIVE ODDS tab right in this post and then bookmark it so you have a one stop shop for all of your odds. The next feature, which is even better is our MATCHUPS tab. Do us a favor. Click the matchups tab right in this post, Scroll down to the Florida/Georgia helmets and click on matchup within the helmet box. How awesome is that? You get to see an injury report for each team. ATS numbers, Betting trends, the last ten matchups head-to-head in a summary and with detail, last 5 games numbers, the weather and tons of great stats. Where else can you get that information all in one screenshot? We say nowhere. Hopefully you will bookmark our matchups page and use this great tool for your own benefit. Now on with the picks, right after this great arse!!!
Now that is a bathing suit!
RPJ $yndicate Picks (29-36-2)
Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-29.5) - We normally hate betting lines over 29 points but when the 29 points is for the home team we think twice. And who can argue with this OSU tail.
The Cowboys boast one of the top offenses in the nation, ranking seventh in scoring at 43.6 points per game and eighth in total offense at 490.8 yards per game. They’ll be taking on a defense that’s 102nd in the country in points allowed (31.6 per game) and total defense (422.8 ypg). Iowa State’s pass defense has been particularly bad lately, allowing an average of 329.0 yards through the air in four games since the start of October - second-worst in the Football Bowl Subdivision in that span. Oklahoma State’s offense is led by Robinson, who has thrown for 1,092 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception in his last five games, and Kendall Hunter, fourth in the nation in rushing yards with 1,116. Considering Hunter rushed for 161 yards on 18 attempts last week against the nation’s third-ranked run defense, he shouldn’t have trouble finding room to run against Iowa State, which has allowed 170.3 rushing yards per game and 17 touchdowns on the ground this season. Iowa State, meanwhile, has been awful on the road, losing 14 in a row away from Ames since a 42-14 win at Texas A&M on Oct. 29, 2005. It’s also dropped 33 consecutive regular season road contests against Top 25 opponents since a 33-31 win over Oklahoma on Oct. 20, 1990. Lets check out the ATS numbers:
Iowa State
Cyclones are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cyclones are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Cyclones are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss.
Cyclones are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cyclones are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cyclones are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Cowboys are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
When you throw in the fact that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, we think that puts the icing on the cake. Oklahoma State wins and covers!
Florida (-6.5) at Georgia (neutral site) - If you think Urban Meyer has not put this game on his calendar, you are outta your freakin mind. Urban first referenced this game back in July and has let the bad taste in his mouth fester since then. If you think Georgia’s behavior from last year was forgotten and is behind Urban Meyer….you are outta your freakin mind. Let us remind you what happened last year.
We have been waiting for this game and for this bet since last year. We challenge you to name one game that Urban Meyer geared up for and lost. We can not find one. Florida and Urban Meyer are legit and this is the game that dreams are made of. Georgia has no freakin chance. Yes we love the word freakin this week but we are passionate about the Gators. Check out the ATS numbers:
Florida
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Gators are 10-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Georgia
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
The Ats numbers do not help you in this one. Urban Meyer is KING!!! Do not bet against him in this game. We are not even sure why we wrote up this game. Urban Meyer + Tim Tebow versus Mark Richt 2007 Bullshiznit = Florida wins easily. We get 6.5 points and you get a winner. Florida wins and covers easily!
Yes it is time for some arse!!!
Gratuitous yes! Hot Yes! Ass ass ass!!!
Arizona State at Oregon State (-15.5) - There is nothing better when we can have cheerleaders battle for their team’s RPJ backing.
A Beaver shows her beaver? This is too easy!
All I want for XMAS is an RPJ win!
Even though ASU is appealing for our pick we have to go with our gut. Check out the ATS numbers:
ASU
Sun Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games in November.
Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
Sun Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Sun Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Oregon State
Beavers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Beavers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Beavers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Beavers are 23-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Beavers are 42-17 ATS in their last 59 games following a ATS win.
Beavers are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
Head-to-Head
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oregon State.
Is that pick easy enough for you? C’mon now. Oregon State wins easily and big!!!
Lets add some more levity to this post. Check out this real story. We can not make this crap up if we tried and believe you me we tried. Police arrest Mich. man for car wash vacuum sex. As we said, we could not make up this crap if we tried.
The Great Debate Game #4 (Flash Flash leads the season series 2-1)
Texas (-3) at Texas Tech - This game has serious BCS national title implications and we are back for another debate game. Flash is picking one side and Runny is on the other side. This is the 4th Great Debate Game for RPJ and Flash Flash wins the heads up battle at 2-1. Lets look at the ATS numbers before we give you our rationale.
Texas
Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Longhorns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Longhorns are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Longhorns are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a ATS loss.
Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Longhorns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games in November.
Texas Tech
Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Red Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on turf.
Red Raiders are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Head-to-Head
Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Flash Flash is picking Texas and here is why: You do not mess with the best. Texas is the best team in the country and quoting the good ole mantra that always matters….Defense wins championships!!! Texas is an elite TEAM, Texas Tech is an elite offense. TEAMS win games and championships. I think I might be the only person in the country who thinks this game will not be close but I am not afraid to run with the Horns. Texas has played with the best teams in its conference and it has beaten them when it counts. Texas will not overlook Texas Tech because they are playing on the road. I am ont worried about Texas’ “young secondary” because they handled Bradord and Oklahoma just fine and they handled Robinson and the Cowboys just fine. Do not count Texas out. Texas wins and covers easily!!!
Runny Pelvis is picking Texas Tech and here is why: I still think Texas is hyped way too much. Don’t get me wrong, I think they deserve to be ranked #1. They have won big games on big stages this year. However, OK State showed that they can be beat last week-they just didn’t get it done. I think this is the week they go down. The reasons? Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. These two guys are legit and in sync. Crabtree plays like a true #1 player-he wants the ball EVERY time and he is not afraid. Texas comes into this game with a very young secondary. They have not faced a player of Crabtree’s ability yet this year. Harrell knows how to get him the ball. Statistically, Harrell’ stats are just as impressive as McCoy’s. I think once Tech wins this game, Harrell gets the Heisman. Also, most of Tech’s players are rejects from Texas. They will have an amped crowd behind them and they will be playing with chips on their shoulders. I think Tech wins outright, so I’ll gladly take the points.
One more story of the weird. We are not making this crap up….DA: H.S. Coach Spends Uniform Money At Strip Club
Flash Flash Picks (14-8-2 on the season)
Tulsa (-7) at Arkansas - I am on the Tulsa bandwagon and you can ont throw me off. And yes I know they effed me last week not meeting the OVER. Well I am back for more. Tulsa has the top ranked offense in the country and is looking to end a 16 game losing streak to Arkansas. Tulsa leads D-1 with 56.6 points and 624.7 yards per game, and has converted 61% of its third-down chances. Yes I will say it, Arkansas blos. Check out the ATS numbers:
Tulsa
Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Golden Hurricane are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Golden Hurricane are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Golden Hurricane are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Golden Hurricane are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Golden Hurricane are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Golden Hurricane are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Arkansas
Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Razorbacks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
As I said….Arkansas is not good. Tulsa should be able to handle the Razorbacks no problem. Take Tulsa to win and cover!
Runny Pelvis Picks (19-20-1 on the season)
Air Force (-7.5) at Army: I’m a huge fan of armed forces games. They are great rivalries that get totally overlooked by the media. This one is a good one, too. Army is putting together a solid season and Air Force is doing the same. Air Force may even make a Bowl-to do so they need this win to solidify their chances. The key to this game is scheduling. Air Force has played much harder teams and has been very successful. I think they will do the same this week. FACTS: Army is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Air Force and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home against Air Force. Finally, Army is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home against military schools. I’m taking Air Force and giving the points.
West Virginia (-4) at UCONN: The Mountaineers roll into Storrs looking to solidify their hold on the Big East. They face a Huskies team that is outstanding at home. Very much so against the Big East (UConn is 7-4 ATS against Big East teams at home). I think this game comes down to health-WVA has a healthy Pat White back. That is all they need. FACTS: UConn is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against WVA and WVA is 8-1 ATS against teams that are off striaght-up, underdog wins. I’m taking WVA and giving the points.
Northwestern at Minnesota (-7.5): Short and sweet-this is another game that comes down to health for me. The Wildcats will be without their starting RB and possibly their QB. Both have been key components in NW’s success this year. Although the ATS numbers favor NW, I think the injuries will slow them down a ton in this game. Add that this is a road game against a conference rival. I think all of that is too much for NW to handle. I’m taking the Golden Gophers and giving the points.
Missouri (-21) at Baylor: This may be my favorite game of the week. Baylor can be a tough place to play, but I think Mizzou KILLS them in this one. Mizzou showed last week that they are not afraid to run up the score. Late last week against Colorado, they had the game in-hand by a mile but they kept throwing it up. They will do the same. Baylor cannot score and they will reach a point where Mizzou is so far ahead that the Bears will become on dimensional. That does not bode well for an offensively challenged team. The Bears boast the #87 passing D in the country…bad news for them this week. Chase Daniel is a Texan and will pile the points up in this one. Baylor is also starting a Freshman QB. They are done. FACTS: Mizzou is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Baylor, 12-2 ATS after Colorado and 36-3-2 ATS win they win straight-up away. This will be ugly. I’m taking Mizzou and gladly giving the points.
Washington at USC (-46): This line cracks me up!!! The funny part about it is that it should be higher. It should be over 50 all day. USC owns the Huskies at home (1-3 ATS in their last 4 meetings), and the Huskies are riding in with a lame duck coach. That does not bode well for the Huskies. USC needs to destroy this team for the polls, and they will have no problem doing it. Last week the Huskies gave-up 30+ at home to Notre Dame and could only muster one score. Well, USC has the best D in the country so that one score will not happen. USC has only given up 13 second half points ALL YEAR!!!. That’s right-13 total second half points!! Ridiculous. I’m calling this the Retainer Game because USC’s AD should have a fleet of attorneys on the sidelines to defend their players after the numerous crimes that will be committed. This game will be out of hand early. USC will score way more than 30. I’m predicting a shutout and I’m taking USC even if the line was 50.
Arkansas State (+23.5) at Alabama: This is my upset cover of the year. Arkansas State has no chance of winning this game, but covering is a different story. To me, this game is about timing-Arkansas State is catching the Tide right at the right time. Bama has had all week of people telling them they are so great. In comes a team they should beat by 40. However, Arkansas State will be rolling in with a veteran QB and they can score some points. Not enough to win, but enough to keep it close. On top of Bama’s ego, they will be looking past Red Wolves to their important match-up with LSU. The Red Wolves will catch the mighty Tide nappin’ in this one. I’m taking Arkansas State and the points.
Happy Halloween. RPJ $yndicate Ass Picture of the Week!
Happy Halloweenie!!!
Good luck with your picks!
Flash Flash and Runny
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Week 9 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer Busts Out!!!
Hey everybody. BSL here with another round of SEC picks for those with the testicular fortitude to let your hard earned dollars ride on the games we all know and love. If you’re not fired up for this weekend’s slate of matchups, then you are not a fan of the game. It just doesn’t get any better. My beloved SEC took another hit to its reputation when Auburn lost to West Virginia last night. Add the Tennessee-UCLA debacle and a couple of other choice missteps, and you have a solid case that the SEC has yielded its place as the nation’s top conference to the Big-12. Not that yours truly subscribes to that notion; I’m just saying that one could reasonably argue that point if there were so inclined. In any event, as Mr. Miyagi once told me, when it comes to top conference it’s best not to declare a winner before the season is over. I’m thinking that the SEC’s stock will continue to rise vis-à-vis the Big-12’s from here on out, but then again, I am a flaming SEC homer. On another point, I note that the syndicate is finally rounding back into shape. That’s my boys. Look for more good things to come.
Here are the picks:
TAKE TENNESSEE (plus 5) vs. ALABAMA - How is Tennessee only a 5-point underdog here? Great question. The Vols have been disrespected eight ways to Sunday this year and are fighting mad. They are going to be sky high for this game is Knoxville and Alabama is due for a loss. Vegas knows what’s up. I think Tennessee wins this one outright.
TAKE KENTUCKY (plus 25) at FLORIDA - Kentucky is average, but not awful. Sure, the Gators could get all fired up and do to Kentucky what they did to LSU, but I really don’t see that happening. This one will likely never be in doubt, but I could see Kentucky’s defense keeping Florida to a modest number of points and UK being about to put up about 14-20 points themselves.
TAKE LSU (minus 1) vs. GEORGIA - Tigers/Bulldogs should be a good one. Both teams need this one badly. Georgia has more impressive stats, but LSU probably has more talent on both sides of the ball. I think LSU wins this game at the line of scrimmage. Look for a strong defensive effort from LSU and a low scoring affair. Also, when LSU has the refs in their pocket, good things happen. Check out this video from the LSU/USC game if you missed it last week. And yes this video is real.
TAKE OLE MISS (minus 6.5) at ARKANSAS - Ole Miss is clearly the more talented team, and while it is undeniable that the Hogs are getting much, much better week by week, I’ve got to think that Coach Nutt will have his boys ready to play for his first return trip to Fayetteville.
Sincerely,
BSL, Esquire
Week 8 SEC NCAA Football Picks - Backwoods Southern Lawyer is back after a winning weekend!
Sorry for the late post — this week the BSL was fighting for his life in front of a know-nothing judge who I’m sure doesn’t like SEC football (not that yours truly had the chance to ask His Honor that in open court, but I just get that feeling from the way he continually raised his voice when overruling my objections and then lowered it to read the jury verdict in my favor — BOO–YOW!!!!).
Anyway, there are two components to making money when wagering on sports. One is picking winners (something I’ve been able to do fairly consistently within the SEC). The other, equally important, aspect is knowing how to bet (which is something that I have a proven history of absolutely sucking at). Take last weekend for example: I pick more winners than losers, but get blanked at the ticket windows because I loaded up on my Miss St - LSU money line parlay, which was only half right (meaning it was all wrong). So, to hell with the telling folks how to wager. If you want to make money, take a proven system like RPJ and bet in equal units. You may go up and down, but in the end it will be more of the former and less of the latter. Now, for those of you who want the BSL’s take on this week’s SEC action, read on.
TAKE VANDY (plus 14.5) AT GEORGIA — This is a tough one. Georgia is due for a blow out, and Vandy’s glass slipper has a crack or two after last week’s loss at Miss St. However, there is no denying the Vandy is a decent team, and Georgia has not been blowing teams out of the water. Add the fact that Vandy and Georgia’s last two games have been decided by a total of 5 points, and I think you have the makings of a moderately close game here.
TAKE OLE MISS (plus 11.5) AT ALABAMA — I like this pick. The last 3 times these teams have played, Bama has won by a field goal. I’ve previously praised Coach Nutt’s ability to put Ole Miss in a position to win big games, and he proved me right with the big one over Florida. Alabama is like Drago in Rock IV. They are only human; if you cut them, they bleed just like the rest of us. Look for a 7-10 point game.
TAKE KENTUCKY (minus 7) VS. ARKANSAS — I don’t care that they beat Auburn. Arkansas is not a good football team, and one week doesn’t change that. Kentucky isn’t so hot either, but they’ve got the defense to hold the Hogs in check and enough offense to cover 8 points. I like the Wildcats to win by double digits.
TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA (plus 2.5) VS. LSU — I never would’ve picked this game this way before I saw the LSU-Florida game. Florida exposed LSU as one of this season’s pretender teams. LSU’s defense (which it rode to both of its recent national championships) is highly suspect. Never in history has a defense with so much talent performed so poorly (note to Les Miles — your dual defensive coordinator scheme isn’t working). South Carolina has turned their season around and will be fired up to play this game at home. I like their chances to win outright.
TAKE MISS STATE (plus 7.5) at TENNESSEE — Mississippi State is not that bad. I think they really started getting things together after the Georgia Tech game where they got their asses handed to them. This year’s Tennessee team has an palpable absence of character and leadership. For some reason, I put Tennessee and Clemson in the same boat this year. Sometimes, you just don’t have that mojo that makes average teams good and good teams great. The Vols are barely average, and I like Miss St to keep this one close, if not win it outright.
So there you have it. Again, a big tip of the hat to the gents at the Syndicate; keep up the good work boys. Good luck to everybody this weekend.
Sincerely,
BSL - Backwoods Southern Lawyer
Week 7 NCAA Free Football Picks (10/11/2008): - The Backwoods Southern Lawyer Picks SEC Winners
BSL here. My picks for the last two weeks have gone off about as well as my last deposition.
After another crap-the-sheets, 2-2 performance last week, I’m hovering just above .500 and ready to make something happen. I just so happen to have a 5-star, blistering hot, balls deep mortal lock for this weekend, which I absolutely love: take LSU and Miss St. on a money line parlay and laugh all the way to the bank.
LSU (plus 6) at FLORIDA. In case you’ve missed it, the news in: Florida is just not that great of a football team. I’ve felt uneasy about this Gator squad all year; something is just not right in Gainesville. They were 9-4 last year and will end up near that mark again this year. LSU is simply better on both sides of the ball and will win this one outright (perhaps by double digits). LSU, by the way, will win (or at least come awfully close to winning) the national championship this year.
MISS. STATE (plus 3) vs. VANDERBILT. When it comes to Vanderbilt, I’m the jerk at the table with a stack of black on the “Don’t Come” line. With the exception of the Ga Tech game, MSU has been performing better each week and is sitting on a big effort. MSU’s new QB is sitting on a big effort, and Vandy will bounce after last week’s emotional upset of Auburn. Also, all of the fan money is on Vandy, which makes me feel great about the Bulldogs. MSU wins this one outright.
This is your cure for the looming financial crisis. I feel very strongly about this play. $100 wins you $550. Add a zero to those figures and you’ve got Sizzler money. Cha-ching.
The only play I’m making this weekend is what you see above. However, for those of you of with enquiring minds, here are my other SEC picks for this weekend
TAKE GEORGIA (minus 13) vs. TENNESSEE. Georgia is a good football team, and Tennessee is a very bad football team.
TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA (-1.5) AT KENTUCKY. Another tough call. Both have great defenses. After Smelly’s big week last time out, I give South Carolina the edge on offense.
TAKE ARKANSAS (plus 18.5) AT AUBURN. There are very few teams that Auburn is capable of beating by 19 points, and none of those teams is in the SEC. Arkansas hung with Florida for three and a half quarters last Saturday and is certainly getting tired of having their ass handed to them on a weekly basis. Now they can their offense coorfdinator. Please. Tubberville never bought into Tony Frankin’s spread offense and really never gave it a chance. I blame Tuberville for failing to commit to an offense he bought into when he brought Franklin on board. Random Prediction: Petrino leaves Arkansas in disgrace within 3 years (possibly 4).
Thanks to the boys at RPJ for giving me a place to spew my SEC venom. The website looks great.
Yours Truly,
Backwoods Southern Lawyer
Week 6 NCAA Free Football Picks (10/4/2008): Redemption - The Backwoods Southern Lawyer Picks SEC Winners
Well the Backwoods Southern Lawyer wilted under the pressure last week posting a 1-3 record. He sent me the following email and is back for another week…..
An off weekend brought yours truly dangerously close to .500 for September. The philosophical question for college football fans after last week is whether Ole Miss’ upset of Florida shows that the SEC is strong top to bottom or just weak at the top….. and while you ponder that, chew on these picks for this week:
Take FLORIDA (minus 24) at ARKANSAS. After last weekend’s setback against Ole Miss, Tim Tebow gave a teary-eyed apology to the Gator Nation and swore: “But I promise you one thing: a lot of good will come out of this. You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of this season, and you’ll never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of this season. And you’ll never see a team play harder than we will the rest of this season. God bless.” I, for one, believe him. Even though Florida is banged up and Arkansas is due to show up sometime (and I am loathe to give away 24 in any SEC match-up), I just have a feeling that Florida will take out their frustrations on the hapless Razorbacks and roll to a 5 TD victory.
Take OLE MISS (minus 2.5) vs. SOUTH CAROLINA. I usually look for teams to bounce after emotional wins like the one Ole Miss had over Florida last week, but I think this is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Ole Miss is a couple of plays away from being 5-0 right now. They’ve been re-energized by their new coach and the team and fan base is starting to believe (especially after last week). South Carolina is starting to wonder whether Spurrier is what they thought he was when they hired him, and the switch to Andy Garcia, while necessary, may cause some growing pains. I look for Ole Miss to win by 9+ points.
Take KENTUCKY (plus 15.5) at ALABAMA. The vogue pick this weekend is to take Alabama because Kentucky hasn’t played anyone, ‘Bama is the hottest team in the country and Saban is better than Bear Bryant, Vince Lombardi and Jesus put together. However, I’m here to tell you my friends that Kentucky is a quality club. They beat Western Kentucky worse than Alabama did, and Alabama threw in a stinker after their big game with Clemson, just like they might do this week after their big win in Athens. I think Kentucky battles valiantly and keeps it within 2 TDs.
TAKE AUBURN (minus 4) at VANDERBILT. Yes, Vandy is 4-0 and Auburn is 1-4 ATS this year, but the fact remains that one team is Vanderbilt and the other is Auburn. Order will be restored in the SEC this weekend, and Vandy will realize that any school with incoming freshmen averaging 1,400 points on their SAT scores has no business atop the SEC East. Besides, Vandy’s strength is in its running game, which Auburn will stuff. Auburn’s offense is due for a break out game and will find a way to put at least three scores on the board. I like Auburn by 10.
That’s the night the lights went out in Georgia
That’s the night that they hung an innocent man
Don’t trust your soul to no back woods Southern lawyer
Cause the judge in the town’s got bloodstains on his hand
Bonjour Mes Amis,
Backwoods Southern Lawyer