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Free Winning NFL Picks: Week 8: Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner

We were 3-4 last week. Back to back losing efforts. Our season record now stands at 21-17. We think the gambling gods are after us after we had a 5-0 week two weeks ago. We look to get back on track this weekend.

RPJ $yndicate Picks - These are our straight picks. Straight cash homey!!!

The blowout games: Seattle at Dallas (-9.5) and Oakland at San Diego (-16.5) - Cowboys are back playing well and are at home. Chargers get to play the Raiders at home. We will not be fooled again. Raiders blow and we will never bet them to win a game this year. We are betting the Cowboys and Chargers to win and cover!

Miami at NY Jets (-3) - Revenge, revenge, revenge. The Jets are going to unleash hell this week. They tweaked the defense to handle and attack the Wildcat offense. Down in Miami they tried to finesse it and did not attack. Rex Ryan will know how to stop the Wildcat this time around and the Jets will stop the run and hold down Henne at home. Sanchez will get over hot dog gate and manage an effective game plan. We are betting the Jets to win and cover!

Miami

• Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3) - This is a Colin Cowherd lock of the week. Colin is 6-1 in his locks of the week, his only loss was picking Tennessee to beat the Jets. Last week he had Oregon State over USC. Here is his logic and we have to agree. We were all over this game. Minnesota has not had its bye yet this year and the Vikes are coming off tough, physical games against the Ravens and at Pittsburgh. The Vikes have not covered in those games. Since falling to Minnesota, Green Bay has won two in a row, two easy games, and has covered in both. 72% of the money is on the Vikings and this line has not moved. The betting public is remembering the 8 sack day the Vikes had the last time these two lined up. Favre will be emotional and the scene should be amazing. We think this is the perfect storm of the Vikings being beaten down, they need their bye and the Pack primed up for this game. Vikings are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Pack. We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!

Minnesota

• Vikings are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Vikings are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Vikings are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Vikings are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10.5) - This seems like a ton of points but the Saints are hot. They are undefeated against the spread and punishing everybody. The Falcons have only beaten one team on the road and it was a banged up 49ers team. They lost at Dallas and New England and did not cover in either of those games. The Saints are better than the Pats and the Cowboys and are punishing teams right now. 85% of the money is on the Saints and this line is moving up. Opened at -9 and is up to -11 in some books. The Saints have the #1 offense in the league and people think it is all about Brees and the passing game. Saints are actually the third best rushing team in the league and pound out 155 yards a game. New Orleans is nasty and we are not going to bet against them until the lose ATS. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!

Atlanta

• Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
• Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
• Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
• Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 8.
• Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC South.

Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy is getting crushed. It was 2-10 last week against the spread and now sits at 45-56-1. Vegas is getting crushed right now with all of the bad teams out there. We actually heard that an old lady hit five 11 team parlays last week in Vegas last week with 5 different tickets. This strategy did have two good weeks in a row but has had its terrible weeks. We continue to monitor this but to not advise betting it.

Denver (+3.5) at Baltimore

Houston at Buffalo (+3.5)

Cleveland (+13) at Chicago

Seattle (+9.5) at Dallas

St. Louis (+4) at Detroit

San Francisco (+13) at Indianapolis

Miami (+3) at NY Jets

NY Giants at Philadelphia (+1)

Jacksonville (+3) at Tennessee

Oakland (+16.5) at San Diego

Carolina (+10) at Arizona

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay

Atlanta (+10.5) at New Orleans

Knockout Strategy - The knockout strategy remains unbeaten. Hope you are still alive.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 6: New England Patriots

Week 7: San Diego Chargers

Free Winning Super Bowl Picks: Steelers versus Cardinals: 10 Reasons why the Cardinals will cover!

What a bunch of fair weather fans our readers are. We went 4-0 Championship Sunday and nobody, not one person, even said nice job on this website or on Facebook. Nobody!!! Oh well. I guess our mediocre regular season records could not be made up by one great NFL playoff weekend. On the NFL postseason, RPJ $yndicate is 7-4 and Runny is 1-0. We are going to pick the game and the O/U for you.

Our scouts down in Tampa tell us this is not one for the ages. The media is playing this up as an even fan base but in reality this is Pittsburgh South. The Cards do not have many fans down there at all and we anticipate a Steelers crowd in the magnitude of 80-20. As far as the scene and the general excitement around the Super Bowl, the economy is having an impact. Parties are being canceled (Playboy), parties are selling tickets to the public because sponsors pulled out (Reggie Bush’s party for $350), the Super Bowl TV spots were sold out only two days ago and even Cash 4 Gold was able to buy a tv spot. This is not THE event this year. The Cardinals killed it. Just wanted to provide some insight into the general scene.

Steelers versus Cardinals (+7 and OVER/UNDER 46.5)

RPJ $yndicate is picking the Cards to cover and taking the OVER and here are 10 reasons why:

1) QB: Warner holds Super Bowl passing records and has proven that he can execute in the 4th quarter in the big game. Big Ben does not win games for this year’s Steelers, the defense does. Yes defense wins championships, but all we need is a Cards cover. One of Big Ben’s most horrible games of his career was in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks. Huge edge for the Cards

2) Cards Offense: These guys are scoring at will on anybody. Destroyed Carolina on the road, destroyed the Eagles, these guys are legit. We think they can score on anybody. Steelers can only use Troy P. to double one WR, Cards have 2 that are ridiculous, one that is very good (Breaston) and can throw really to anybody else.

3) The “Hot” Factor: The Cards are hot. They solidified their defense for the playoffs, found the run with a rested Edge and just have a nasty attitude going on right now. Their QB has won a Super Bowl, their coaches have played in and coached in Super Bowls and they look unstoppable right now. Giants pulled this off last year and the Colts prior. Always beware the hot team.

4) The over is 38-13 in Arizona’s last 51 games as an underdog.

5) Las Vegas Sports Consultants: We won using these guys in the Championship round. LVSC opened the line at Steelers -6.5 and O/U 46.5. Since the line is now Steelers -7, we get to benefit half a point from what LVSC thought the perfect line was going to be. Read last week’s post if you want to understand this more.

6) Over the past 13 Super Bowls where there have been 2 different seeds, the lower team has covered 12 out of 13 times. The underdog is 2-1 in Tampa Bay Super Bowls. Go Cards

7) O-line: Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy has started 35 straight games since joining the Cards in 2007. This year he only gave up 6.5 sacks and committed one holding penalty. Winning the battle of the line is key. In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader was has won 12 of those games and is 8-3-2 ATS. Steelers are known for their sacks but did you know the Steelers were only +2 in net sacks on the season? Cards were +3.

Red zone offense: We jumped all over this in the Cards/Eags game. Red zone O is critical. Arizona is ranked 9th in red zone touchdown percentage, the Steelers are ranked 15th. Seems close but in reality, the Cards scored 72 more red zone points and had 16 more possessions in the red zone than the Steelers.

9) Coaching: The Whiz, Ken Whisenhunt is the key to this game. Remember when Gruden went to Tampa and coached his Bucs to a commanding win over the Raiders. Whiz has this advantage too. Willie Parker admitted that Whiz knows him better than he knows himself and said he knows the same about Big Ben and the rest of the Steelers. The Whiz beat the Steelers last year, sacked Big Ben 4 times and picked him off twice. Do not underestimate this.

Before we get to number 10, here are the ATS numbers:

Steelers

Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.

Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Steelers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Steelers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 playoff games as a favorite.

Over is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 12-2 in Steelers last 14 playoff games.

Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a ATS win.

Over is 11-5 in Steelers last 16 games as a favorite.

Cardinals

Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.

Cardinals are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over is 20-6 in Cardinals last 26 games following a ATS win.

Over is 38-13 in Cardinals last 51 games as an underdog.

Over is 23-8 in Cardinals last 31 games on grass.

Over is 22-8 in Cardinals last 30 games following a S.U. win.

Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 38-14 in Cardinals last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 24-9 in Cardinals last 33 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 20-8 in Cardinals last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 35-16 in Cardinals last 51 games overall.

10) Brenda Warner: We ain’t betting against this hottie!!!!

and there you have ot folks. 10 reasons why the Cards will cover in this game. We might even throw some cash down on the moneyline. We are also hitting the OVER and actually think nthe over is the best bet of the day. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

RPJ Pic of the Day

Flash Flash and Runny

2009 NFL Championship Game Winning Picks and Hot Chicks

We sucked a big one last weekend. A whopping 1-3. RPJ is now 3-4 during the playoffs and Runny is 1-0. Two more games means two more games to make money but more importantly it means we can show some great arses for one more week. Arses like this one….

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4 and OVER/UNDER 47)

RPJ Syndicate is taking Arizona and the Over and here is why: We are probably going to bet against the Eagles incorrectly all the way to a Super Bowl betting loss. If the Vikes had a QB, they beat the Eagles. If the Giants took their heads out of their arse (and not a pretty arse like the one above) ran the ball more, managed the play clock and hit some FGs, the Giants win easily. The Eagles had 20 yards of offense after 28.5 minutes and were WINNING!!! The Eagles are clearly the hot bet right now. They won two games on the road and now go play a Cards team they annihilated Thanksgiving night. Everybody under the sun thinks the Eagles will blow them away again. In order to understand these lines a little more we are making sure we pay attention to what the Las Vegas Sports Consultants are saying (LVSC). If you do not know who LVSC is, they are basically the people setting the initial lines in Las Vegas. LVSC came out and put the Eagles at -2.5 and the O/U at 50.5. This line is moving a lot. Initially the spread moved to -3.5 and is now at -4 and that is with the news that Westbrook is injured and not practicing again. The O/U immediately started dropping and is now in the 47-48 range. We are basing part of our logic this week and matching up with LVSC. LVSC says -2.5 and 50.5 so we are reacting accordingly and that means take the Cards -4 and OVER 47. In addition, We are betting the hotter of the two teams in terms of how they are playing. 75% of the money is on the Eagles to cover and the line moved from -2.5 to -4. This is a true line.

Red Zone issues

The Eagles have a solid defense but their offense has not looked good and they had trouble scoring in the red zone all year. This time, instead of just mentioning red zone stats, we are posting them and they speak volumes. The Eagles were in the red zone 63 times this year, which is behind the Giants (69), CARDS (65), Chargers (65) and Pats (65). Guess how many times the Eagles scored a TD inside the red zone….31. Less than 50% of the time. The Eags were the 22nd rated team in the red zone this year. they kicked more FGs in the red zone than every NFL team but 2, the Chargers and Bucs. This stat will become an issue for the Eagles because they have not fixed it in the post season. 

Respect

The Cards are either hot or cold; patsies or rock stars so who will show up this weekend. The Cards play great at home destroyed a great Panthers team on the road with their physicallity. The Cards remind us a little bit of the Colts the year they won the Super Bowl. The knock on the Colts was that they were soft and could not stop the run. However, in the playoffs the Colts pulled it all together and were great against the run and showed some aggression and toughness that was not seen during the regular season. Sound familiar? We think so. The Cards found a running game last week, the OL played amazing, the defense stopped the run after the first drive and the coaching staff came together with an awesome game plan. We think the Cards win this game outright because they are the better team right now. Also, you can not ignore the respect facctor. check out this article out of Arizona….Cardinals don `Prove It’ T-shirts. Especially in the NFL, you need to bet the team that is feeling disrespected. The extra motivation is powerful. We know Philly well and the radio stations already created song parodies with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. Two more games to go folks before Philly fans can do that.

Here are the ATS numbers:

Philadelphia Eagles

• Eagles are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Eagles last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
• Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 road games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 7-1-1 in Eagles last 9 playoff games.
• Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Eagles last 6 games overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 vs. NFC.
• Under is 19-7-1 in Eagles last 27 games as a road favorite.
• Under is 41-16-5 in Eagles last 62 games as a favorite.
• Under is 37-16-2 in Eagles last 55 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 23-11-1 in Eagles last 35 vs. a team with a winning record.

Arizona Cardinals

• Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• Cardinals are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a home underdog.
• Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Over is 16-5 in Cardinals last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 29-10 in Cardinals last 39 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 28-10 in Cardinals last 38 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 22-8 in Cardinals last 30 games on grass.
• Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 home games.
• Over is 38-14 in Cardinals last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 37-14 in Cardinals last 51 games as an underdog.
• Over is 21-8 in Cardinals last 29 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 23-9 in Cardinals last 32 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 41-19 in Cardinals last 60 vs. NFC.
• Over is 36-17 in Cardinals last 53 games overall.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
• Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6 and OVER/UNDER 34)

We are taking the Steelers to win and cover and the OVER and here is why: We are taking the same approach to this game as we did to the last game. The Steelers are the team that is playing more complete football right now. We thought the knock on the Steelers was their offense but they put a complete spanking on the Chargers last week. It was nice to see Willie Parker running wild and they will need him against the Ravens. We touted the Ravens defense last week before the Titans game but we actually did not like what we saw. The Titans moved the ball at will against the Ravens, just not in the red zone and the Ravens had some key takeaways that were combined with some horrible play calling. What has been consistent for the Ravens is the lack of offense. Check out the disparity from the Titans game.

First down = Titans 21, Ravens 9

Rushing yards = Titans 116, Ravens 50

Passing Yards = Titans 275, Ravens 161

Time of Possession = Titans 34 minutes, Ravens 26 minutes.

You look at those numbers and you wonder how the Titans lost that game.

Look at some of the numbers from the 12/4 Steelers/Ravens game:

First Downs = Steelers 18, Ravens 12

Rushing yards = Steelers 91, Ravens 112 (31 carries)

Passing yards = Steelers 220, Ravens 90 (Flacco was 11-28 with 2 INTs)

Steelers win 13-9

The Ravens just do not have it in them to play good offense against great defenses and the Steelers are just as great, if not better, than the Ravens defense.

The Ravens led the league in trick plays during the regular season and have not busted out any in the playoffs and then you compound that with conservative play calling cause they have a rookie QB. Pittsburgh will try and put the pedal to the metal and get out to a lead. We know these teams regularly play close games but LVSC set this line at -6 and we think that is being generous. We do not see Baltimore scoring with the exception of a late garbage TD with a couple of field goals. We think we can see a score of 24-13 or 27-13. Both of these hit the over and the cover. Also, Vegas opened this line at -5 and it has moved to -6 and 59% of the money is on the Ravens. That is trap city!!! We are not going to dispute that. The ATS numbers:

Baltimore Ravens

• Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
• Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
• Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
• Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 playoff games.
• Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 vs. AFC.
• Over is 7-1-2 in Ravens last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1-1 in Ravens last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games on grass.
• Under is 5-1-1 in Ravens last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games overall.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Ravens last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC North.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games as an underdog.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games in January.
• Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Over is 5-2-1 in Ravens last 8 road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.
• Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
• Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
• Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Steelers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Steelers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Steelers are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Steelers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
• Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 Conference Championships games.
• Over is 8-1 in Steelers last 9 playoff home games.
• Over is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
• Over is 11-2 in Steelers last 13 playoff games.
• Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 13-3-1 in Steelers last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 16-5 in Steelers last 21 games in January.
• Over is 12-4 in Steelers last 16 vs. AFC.
• Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 38-16-2 in Steelers last 56 home games.
• Over is 14-6 in Steelers last 20 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 42-18-2 in Steelers last 62 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 29-13-2 in Steelers last 44 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 15-7-1 in Steelers last 23 games following a ATS win.

Head-to-Head

• Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
• Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

RPJ Pic of the Day!!!

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

2009 NFL Divisional Playoffs Winning Picks and Hot Chicks: Rematches Galore, A.S.S and Adriana Lima!

We had a nice round of picks last weekend. RPJ was 2-1 and Runny was 1-0. Should have had the darn Colts but the Chargers took the money right out of our wallets.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3 and OVER/UNDER 34)

RPJ is taking Baltimore to cover and her is why: Defense, Defense, defense and Cam Cameron! Cam Cameron is a genius of an offensive coordinator to get Flacco to play like he has played. Flacco did not light up the field last week but he did not make mistakes and blow the game either. Just ask Trent Dilfer; game management out of your QB is critical when your defense is jacked and this Baltimore defense is incredibly jacked. In their first game, Baltimore had this game in hand and gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter to lose 13-10 and giving up the game winning TD with less than 2 minutes to go in the game. The Titans and Ravens have two of the best defenses in the NFL. Tennessee had the second-ranked scoring defense, allowing 14.6 points per game, while Baltimore had the third-ranked, giving up 15.3. Baltimore was second in total yards allowed (277.1) while Tennessee was tied for fifth. Tennessee is banged up as well. Starting center Kevin Mawae is injured, Albert Haynesworth is coming back from injury but his effectiveness will not be known until they strap em up. The Ravens are hot and won five of their last 6 and won on the road in the playoffs last week. The ATS numbers:

Baltimore

• Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Ravens are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Tennessee

• Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Titans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
• Titans are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Titans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC.
• Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Titans are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Titans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
• Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Titans are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Tennessee.
• Underdog is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Vegas is basically saying these teams are even by giving the Titans a 3 point edge. We think at worst we get a push if the Titans win by three again but deep down we think the Ravens win outright. Their defense is playing on another level right now and we think they have the will to win.

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5 and OVER/UNDER 48.5)

RPJ is taking Carolina to win and cover and here is why: Arizona might be the second worst road team in the league to the Detroit Lions. The Panthers are 8-0 at home and the Cards are 0-5 on road trips to the Eastern time zone and suffered horrible losses in these games by losing by an average of 20 points but there was one exception…the first game against the Panthers. The Cards lost 27-23 and were actually winning 17-3 early in the third quarter but Warner was intercepted in the red zone and game over. More on the Cards road woes…The Cards are 2-20 in their last 22 games in the eastern time zone. All people want to talk about is Kurt Warner. Well Jake Delhomme is 54-32 as a starter, 5-2 in the playoffs and has a 95.0 passer rating in the playoffs in his career. Not too shabby. He also has an awesome line and two jacked RBs.

The ATS numbers:

Arizona

• Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

Panthers

• Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
• Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Panthers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Panthers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• Panthers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
• Panthers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
• Panthers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Panthers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Cards have not impressed on the road and the Panthers are coming off two weeks of rest. Also, Boldin is definitely injured and may or may not be a factor in this game. Yes the Cards still have Fitzgerald and Breaston but they have close to no running game. This is a tall order for the Cards and we think this is the beatdown of the weekend. 56% of the action is on the Cards and the line moved from -9.5 to -10. Buyer beware! Also, weather will likely be a factor and we saw what east coast weather did to the Cards in the Pats game.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-4 and OVER/UNDER 40)

RPJ is taking the Giants to win and cover and here is why: The experts want to talk about how the Eagles are the hot team right now and the Giants only won one of their last 4 games. That game did get them home field advantage but the G-men limped to the finish. The Eagles, after a Ravens arse raping and McNabb benching, won 4 of 5 and got some help to make the playoffs. Then with the help of 4 FGs, a defensive TD and one big Westbrook play, took care of the Vikes last week. To understand our pick we are going to break down these games for you based on why the experts are telling you to take the Eagles and why that is false logic.

False Logic #1 = The Giants are at a competititive disadvantage minus Plaxico and Shockey because these two players dominated the Eagles. WRONG!!!!! The Giants won the first game against the Eagles in Philly and Plaxico caught one pass. One Pass!!! The Giants won this game because they ran the ball 45 times for 219 yards, had 26 first downs and held the ball for 39 minutes and 10 seconds. Eli only had 191 yards passing and was 17 for 31. They won because they pounded Jacobs.

False Logic #2 = The Eagles crushed the Giants in NY because they are the hot team and better team and will do it again. Wrong wrong wrong. The Giants had a bye in week 3 and then played 13 straight games. The Giants were worn down, Jacobs was hurt, they had a big lead in the NFC East and Plaxico has just shot himself sucking the wind out of the team for the week. The Giants only ran the ball 24 times. Jacobs did have 10 carries for 52 yards but had to leave the game with an injury. Akers does not like kicking in the Meadowlands and he missed two FG in this game, one on a block.

 

The Giants feed off of being the underdog and you know they have heard all of the talk that the Eagles are hot and are the “Giants” of 2009. When Justin Tuck is even saying the the Eagles are the hottest team in in the NFL right now you kow the G-men are using that as motivation. Here is the deal with the Eagles: The Giants have won three of the last 4 meetings and six of nine; Brian Westbrook is injured and not practicing this week, the Eagles are flat out bad in the red zone and have been all year. they were last week and they were in famous games this year like when they played the Bears and could not get one freaking yard. We are not convinced this game will even be close. Giants are coming off the bye, Jacobs is healthy and they love proving people wrong. The Giants are the most healthy they have been since October. All 53 of the players on their 53 man roster practiced this week. If the Vikes had any sort of QB last week, they would have easily won that game.

The ATS numbers:

Eagles

• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
• Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Eagles are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Giants

• Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
• Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Giants are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
• Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
• Giants are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Giants are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
• Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.
• Giants are 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 vs. NFC.

Bizarre Head-to-Head numbers

• Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Whale’s Vagina at Pittsburgh (-6 and OVER/UNDER 38)

RPJ Is taking San Diego to cover and here is why: We are least confident about this pick and are probably parlaying the other three games. We do nto think the Chargers win this game but we are playing them to cover. This line seems high. This was the infamous Troy P. ref muffed game where Troy returned the TD to cover for the Burg and the refs effed it up and disallowed it. This was the first 11-10 game in NFL history. Pittsburgh did not score a TD in three trips to the red zone and were flagged for 13 penalties. San Diego is on a 5 game winning streak and has averaged 34.4 points per game over that stretch. San Diego did only muster 66 yards in the first meeting and that was with LDT who is out for this game. Interesting stat here…San Diego is 2-13 in 15 trips to San Diego but the two wins were in the playoffs. So San Diego is on a hot streak and scoring points and Pittsburgh has an awesome defense but can not score points. Pittsburgh has only scored 8 TDs in seven games against teams that made the playoffs. We think the Chargers can keep this game closer than 6 points.

The ATS numbers:

San Diego

• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• Chargers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Chargers are 9-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Chargers are 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog.
• Chargers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC.
• Chargers are 51-20-2 ATS in their last 73 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Chargers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
• Chargers are 29-14-3 ATS in their last 46 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73 games on grass.

Steelers

• Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
• Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Steelers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

RPJ Pic of the day!

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

2009 BCS NCAA Football Championship Game Pick: Florida versus Oklahoma

Well we are sad to see the close of the college football season on two fronts. 1) we do not have any more games to bet until August and 2) we know this was a painful year and we likely cost you money. We bankrupted ourselves a few times this year and kept fighting and clawing our way back. Unfortunately for us we dug ourselves such a big hole we could not climb out. We still have the NFL playoffs to leave a lasting mark but NCAA football 2008-2009 season will go down as a painful one. Thank you for all of your support and feedback. OUr records for this bowl season are:

RPJ = 5-11

RPJ Math = 14-15

Flash Flash = 2-2

Runny Pelvis = 9-6

Oklahoma versus Florida (-4 and OVER/UNDER 70): This is the grand daddy of them all. There is a lot of complaining this year that there might be a split AP and BCS title winner; that USC and Utah deserve a piece of the pie; the story lines are out there. Fact of the matter is that regardless of who played already, this game is for the BCS national title. The system is flawed and we all have to deal with it. We are going to throw tons of info at you so you can make the best decision for you.

ATS Numbers

Florida Gators

• Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Gators are 15-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
• Gators are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
• Gators are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
• Gators are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite.
• ver is 6-0 in Gators last 6 games in January.
• Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 bowl games as a favorite.
• Over is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 Bowl games.
• Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 bowl games.
• Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 5-1 in Gators last 6 neutral site games.
• Over is 15-3 in Gators last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
• Over is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 6-2 in Gators last 8 non-conference games.
• Over is 20-7 in Gators last 27 games on grass.
• Over is 19-7 in Gators last 26 games overall.

Oklahoma Sooners

• Sooners are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
• Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
• Sooners are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
• Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
• Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
• Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
• Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC.
• Over is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games on grass.
• Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 6-0 in Sooners last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 12-1 in Sooners last 13 games overall.
• Over is 11-1 in Sooners last 12 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 10-1 in Sooners last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Sooners last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 10-2 in Sooners last 12 non-conference games.
• Over is 8-2 in Sooners last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 neutral site games.
• Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 vs. SEC.

Line moves

 

This line stayed around +3 through most of December, but it’s been on the move leading up to game time. Most sportsbooks have the Gators favored by four points and some shops have the line as high +4.5. The total has moved down a point to a point and a half depending on the book.

 

Weather

 

Players couldn’t ask for better conditions for Thursday’s game according to early weather reports. Forecasters are predicting temperatures in the mid-60’s at game time while winds will be slight at just 8 mph. There is only a 10 percent chance of rain.

 

Conference exposure

 

There has been a lot of talk about the Big 12 getting “exposed” this bowl season and the ATS records suggest that’s true. The Big 12 is 2-4 against the number in bowl games so far while the SEC is 5-1.

 

Bettors best friends

 

Gator and Sooners bettors come into Jan. 8 with heavy pockets. Both teams went 10-2 ATS (against the spread) and both were perfect on the road at a combined 9-0 ATS.

 

On the total side of things, the over went 11-1 in Oklahoma games this year and 8-4 in Gators games.

 

Quick hits

 

Oklahoma ranks No. 1 and Florida ranks No. 2 in turnover margin this year.

 

Neither team seems likely to give the ball away much. Oklahoma committed nine turnovers all season, fewest in FBS, while Florida had 11 to tie for the second-fewest.

 

The Sooners have lost four BCS bowl games in the past five seasons. Stoops is hoping to correct the problem by bringing his team to Miami one day later and imposing earlier curfews than in years past.

 

Florida returns to the BCS bowl scene after a one-year absence. The Gators won the BCS national championship two years ago in a convincing win over Ohio State.

 

Oklahoma ranked sixth in kickoff returns this year; Florida ranked 44^th.

 

Florida ranked seventh in punt returns; Oklahoma ranked 70^th.

 

The Sooners allowed the third-fewest sacks in the nation.

RPJ is taking Florida to win and cover and here is why: Have you been watching this bowl season? The media blew everything out of proportion once again. Pac-10 dominated their bowls, not losing once and the Pac-10 was supposed to be terrible. Big 12 South was embarasing with losses to Oregon and Ole Miss and Texas looking terrible against a horrible Ohio State team. This season all goes back to what we thought at the beginning of the season…USC and Florida are the two best teams in the country. With that being said, only Florida gets the chance to play for the title. Urban Meyer is a winner. Tim Tebow is a winner. Percy Harvin is a winner. Florida is fast as hell. I think 12 guys on their team run the 40 in under 4.4 seconds. One guy that runs a 4.32 40 is the 6th fastest on the team. The Gators have speed on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma is a terrible bowl team under Bob Stoops. Terrible bowl losses to USC and LSU in title games and Boise State and West Virginia in BCS games….. What is different? NOTHING!!!!! Same ole Bob Stoops. Throw in the fact that DeMarco Murray is out of this game and we like Florida even more. Big 12 defenses are not good and Oklahoma gave up 24.5 points per game and 359.1 yards per game. We are learning that it is not because the Big 12 has incredible offenses, it is because they have bad defenses. Anybody can score on a Big 12 team nowadays.

RPJ Math does not show any real advantage. Favors Oklahoma by tenths of 1 percent.

RPJ Pic of the day!

Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis

Free NCAA Football Bowl Picks: Tulsa versus Ball State and Paris Hilton has no breasts!

This game is a barn burner!!! The GMAC bowl is the second to last bowl of the season. How about that!

Tulsa versus Ball State (-2.5 and OVER/UNDER75)

RPJ Math is taking Ball State to win and cover!

RPJ pic of the day!

Flash Flash and Runny

NCAA Football Free Winning Bowl Picks and Hot Chicks: Buffalo Versus UCONN

Yes we are crazy enough to bet this game. Crazy like Pam Anderson….

Buffalo versus UCONN (-7 and OVER/UNDER 51.5)

RPJ is picking Buffalo to cover and here is why: Never bet against the Boys from upstate. We learned our lesson in the MAC championship game. This game is in Toronto and will have a ton of Buffs fans in attendance. Buffalo is 6-1 straight up in their last 7 losing a look ahead game to Kent State before the Ball State smack down. Buffs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6. UCONN has lost two in a row and is 0-2 ATS in those games.

RPJ Math selects Buffalo

RPJ Pics of the day!

and one more for good measure!

Flash Flash and Runny

2009 NFL Playoffs: Free Picks, Hot Chicks and Kate Beckinsale’s Nips! Will the Underdog Rule Supreme?

Our NFL season was better than our NCAA season and we really made a nice run at the end of the year. We are wiping the slate clean and fired up for another round of playoffs. We wish we had the Pats to bet against this year but we will make due. Some points of interest:

1) Join our mailing list. We will be coming at you with special contests for cold hard cash and prizes. NCAA hoops should be the first event.

2) Join our page on Facebook. Search all within Facebook for RPJ Betting Syndicate and join our page as a fan. We post all of our pictures there. RPJ’s gallery of ass!

3) Sign up for our RSS feed so you can be the first to know when we post our picks. Lines move fast so do not miss out.

4) This is a serious one….We were just notified by one of our readers that Sportsbook.com is not sending him his winnings and not telling him why. He thinks the U.S. government is cracking down. If you have a sportsbook.com account, try and get your money out ASAP or at least give them a call to find out if you are impacted like our friend. We do not want you to miss one of our big winning streaks and certainly want to keep our gambling brothers and sisters in the know.

5) If you have not done so yet, try out Bodog for your betting needs. We use them and we have never had any issues. Here is an ad for a 10% bonus.

On with the picks….

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Atlanta at Arizona (-1 and Over/Under 51)

RPJ is taking Arizona to win and cover and here is why: As much as we hate to say it, this pick is mostly from our gut. Generally, we avoid doing that, but this one stands out and we are rolin’ with it. Zona’s offense is awesome, an they are at home. Also, Matt Ryan is legit, but he is due to have a rookie game. Plus, w’ve heard reports that he is getting tired from not being used to playing this much. We like Zona to cover.

Indianapolis at San Diego (Pick ‘Em and Over/Under 51)

RPJ is taking Indy to win and cover and here is why: We love Manning in the playoffs. Fresh off his 3rd MVP award, his team is finally at full strength. Bob Saunders is back and he will stop LT. Manning knows how to win on the road in January. The Colts win this one.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Baltimore at Miami (+3.5 and Over/Under37.5)

Runny is taking Baltimore to win and cover and here is why: I love Baltimore’s D. The Fin played well all year, but Baltimore’s D is made for the playoffs. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed play for these games. They will have the team fired up and ready. Flacco, although a rookie, is mobile. He can avoid the Fins rush. Also, the Ravens will be able to run against this Fins team. The Ravens cover.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (+3 and Over/Under 41.5)

RPJ is taking the Eagles to win and cover and here is why: The Vikings have a great run defense and only give up 76.8 yards per game. That is the true strength of the Vikes D. Well the Eagles do not play smash mouth football and run up the gut over and over again like the Falcons or Ravens. The Eagles pass and use play action and pretty much put Westbrook in any position they can for him to succeed. They will not match wits inside and that will essentially negate the Vikes big advantage. The Vikes can also get after the QB and sacked opposing QBs 45 times this year but guess what, the Eagles were better and sacked opposing QBs 48 times. As we explained during our Colts write up, the most relevant factors to winning in the NFl this year were offensive 3rd down %, Defensive Sacks and Turnover margin. The Eagles are better in all three of these areas. Here are the ATS numbers:

Eagles

• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Vikings

• Vikings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
• Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.
• Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
• Vikings are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Head-to-Head

• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

These teams look similar as far as hot streaks go but the Eagles are a better cover team. The Vikings are 5-1 str8 up and 3-3 ATS in their last 6. The Eagles are 4-2 str8 up and ATS in their last 6. The Eagles, when motivated and focused can beat any team, anywhere. We do not think the Vikings can say the same thing. Eagles win on the road and cover!

RPJ Pic of the day!

The NFL playoffs, gotta love em!

Flash and Runny

NCAA Football Free Winning Bowl Picks and Hot Chicks: January 2 Bowl Games

blah blah blah ASS!

Ole Miss versus Texas Tech (-4 and OVER/UNDER 66)

Runny Pelvis is taking Ole Miss to cover and here is why: Ole Miss has a solid run D and their front 7 will get pressure on Harrell. Harrell, without question, is a different QB when he is pressured. Oregon proved earlier in the week that if you hit these high profile Big 12 teams in the mouth, they can be beat. Ole Miss has the front 7 to do it. They are big. They are fast. And, they can attack Tech’s spread. Ole Miss beat Florida. They can do the same today. Also, Jevan Sneed is VERY underrated. He is as good as Harrell. Ole Miss will be able to run, too, as Tech’s overall D is pretty suspect. I’m taking Ole Miss and the points.

RPJ Math Selects Ole Miss

East Carolina versus Kentucky (+3 and OVER/UNDER 41)

RPJ Math is taking Kentucky to cover!

Utah versus Alabama (-9.5 and OVER/UNDER 45.5)

Flash Flash is taking Alabama to win and cover and here is why: This chick is awesome. I want to bet on teams with fans like this.

What do you have in Utah Runny? That is what I thought. This game is only 290 miles from Tuscaloosa and is deep in the heart of SEC country. Yes Utah has won 12 in a row and covered their last three but they did not play SEC competition. Yeah the Mountain West can beat up on the Pac-10 but the Mountain West is still a second tier conference. Bama lost their last game but it was to Florida and prior to that they had covered 5 in a row. I think Bama just got spooked that they were actually hanging with Florida. The young kids did not have the maturity to put that game away. Alabama has more talent, speed and a better coach and that will do it.

Runny Pelvis is taking Utah to cover and here is why: Girls don’t win games, Flash. The players do, and Bama’s key is their QB. John Parker Wilson has been playing with the house’s money all year. He is not a good QB, and Florida showed that in the SEC Championship. He is due to make huge mistakes, and he will in the game. Bama will not have Andre Smith. That will have a huge impact on their running game (as well as pass protection-he blocks Wilson’s blind side). Bama could not contain the spread offense the last time they face it (Florida). It is the same offense that Utah runs. Utah will cover and I would not be surprised if they win outright.

RPJ Math does not have a pick. Alabama covers in this game 70.5% of the time. Utah covers in this game 68.&% of the time. No edge.

RPJ Pick of the Day

Enjoy the Picks

Flash Flash and Runny

NCAA Football Free Winning Bowl Picks and Hot Chicks: New Year’s Day Games and an ASS Brigade!

Games are flying by now and it is hard to keep track of everything going on. What we are able to keep track of is the tons of the ass we love looking at.

Iowa versus South Carolina (+4 and OVER/UNDER 43)

RPJ is taking Iowa and here is why: This game is in Tampa so USC wins the travel advantage and that is all we think they will win. The Cocks have lost two bad games in a row (Clemson and Florida) and were 0-2 ATS in that time stretch. On the other side of the ball, Iowa has won 3 in a row and is 2-1 ATS in their last 3.

RPJ Math takes Iowa

Clemson versus Nebraska (+1 and OVER/UNDER 56.5)

Runny is taking Nebraska to cover and here is why: Clemson is terrible on the road against legit teams. And, Nebraska’s D is very good. Clemson is a mess. They won’t cover. I’m taking the Huskers and the points.

RPJ Math Selects Nebraska

Michigan State versus Georgia (-9.5 and OVER/UNDER 54)

Runny is taking Georgia to cover and here is why: MSU is too one dimensional. Granted, that one dimension (Jevon Ringer) is outstanding, but it won’t help them in a Bowl. Espeically against a legit team with a chip on their shoulder. I’m taking the Bulldogs and giving the points.

RPJ Math is taking Michigan State

Penn State versus USC (-9 and OVER/UNDER 45)

RPJ is taking USC to cover and here is why:We have seen this game before as we stated in our bowl preview. Penn State has little to no chance in this game. USC has the best defense in recent memory and the D has a lot of players playing in their last game for USC. This defense is fired up and will look to live up to its billing. The offenses look similar on paper but USC has more playmakers and their offense is a lot more dynamic. Pete Carroll has already come out and said that he understands Penn State’s defense and that it all comes down to execution. Well Penn State will not be able to execute against the Trojans defense. No freakin way. This game is in the Rose Bowl and USC considers this a home game. USC has played almost 1.5 times a year there in the last 6 years. Penn State is 2-1 in their last 3 games and 1-2 ATS. USC has won 9 in a row but is only 4-5 ATS.

RPJ Math is picking Penn State to cover!

Virginia Tech versus Cincy (-2 and OVER/UNDER 41.5)

Runny is taking Cinncy to win and cover and here is why: VaTech’s offense can’t score. Their D is a good, and I expect them to play well in this game, but Cinncy can move the ball better than the Hokies. They will win by a field goal. I’m taking Cinncy nd giving the points.

RPJ Math is taking Cinncy to win and cover!

RPJ Pic of the Day!

Hope you enjoyed your day of ball!

Flash and Runny

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