Bearcats
Week 15 Free NCAA Football Winning Picks: The Last Temptation of…….Betting NCAA Regular Season Saturdays
Religion and football do not mix. Where do you think we were going with that title? We will not know our records yet because we still have action going on with the Buffalo/Ball State game.
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RPJ $yndicate Picks (46-52-2 and we have Ball State pending)
Navy at Army (+10.5) - This is the first HUH line of the day. This is a bizarre weekend for lines and we do not get it. More on this later. Why is this spread 10.5 points. We would expect it to be at least 20. Navy has destroyed Army for 6 straight years and continues to be the more elite team of the two. The average score over these six years was 40-12. Navy is coming off a nice road shutout of Northern Illinois and Army is mired in a 3-8 season with not much to talk about. Army even lost to Hampshire…..by 18 POINTS!!! Here are the ATS numbers:
Navy
Army
Head-to-Head
We do not expect this game to be close and the 6 year average of 40-12 is a likely outcome. We are taking Navy to win and cover!
Cinncy at Hawaii (+7.5) - Another HUH line! We think this is just a strange week because we expected this line to be in the 14-15 point range and we get to take it at 7 points. Yee haw!!! We love games like this. Cincy is physical, runs for more yards per game, gives up less running yards per game and turns the ball over less. This means they can control the clock and the game. Coach Brian Kelly has stated that he loves Cincy and is coming back next year so that got rid of that distraction. Also, this line opened at 3.5 and is now up to 7 so we know the movement is legit. Check out the ATS numbers:
Cincy
- Bearcats are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bearcats are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bearcats are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bearcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bearcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
Hawaii
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
We do not think this game will be close. Take Cincy to win and cover!
Boston College at Virginia Tech (pick em and UNDER 37.5) - For the second straight season, Boston College and Virginia Tech are meeting in the ACC championship game with a spot in the Orange Bowl on the line. We think this is going to line up exactly like last year as well. BC wins the regular season game, Va. Tech wins the championship game. The 28-23 game earlier this season was ugly; BC had 5 turnovers and Va. Tech had two defensive TDs. MIracle BC won in the first place. The Hokies rank sixth in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total defense (274.5 yards per game), while Boston College is eighth (276.7 ypg). One big difference in this game is the loss of BC’s QB, Chris Crane. Crane broke his collar bone on November 22 and is being replacedby a red shirt freshmen. That fact alone makes us love Va. Tech. You have ridden us to victory betting on the Va. Tech UNDER and of course we are coming back to it this week. oth teams struggle on offense and have NFL talent on defense. Here are the ATS numbers:
BC
Va. Tech
Head-to-Head
Pretty mixed bag of results. We love the UNDER play for obvious reasons. Va. Tech has gone under in 4 straight games and the trend will continue. Va. Tech has been in every single game this year and have the revenge factor on their side. We are taking Virginia Tech to win/cover and we are going to ride the UNDER one more time!
USC at UCLA (+32.5) - yeah this looks stupid just like it did with 30 points against Notre Dame and 40+ points against Washington State but guess what? All of those games covered. The crazier the better for USC. This game is comical. Pete Carroll is sending his team out in home jerseys at the Rose Bowl (UCLA’s home stadium) for the first time since 1982. He was also willing to do this even if it meant giving up 2 timeouts, one per half. The ruling came back that the The Men of Troy only have to give up one but how arrogant is that. It is awesome if it works and the worst coaching decision of all time (playing Booty with a broken hand against Stanford last year wins right now) if it fails. Not much to say about this game. The Trojans lead the nation in scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (210.6 yards per game). The Trojans have allowed only 10 touchdowns in 11 games. No team in the country has given up fewer points per game in any of the last 13 seasons. The Bruins rank 110th in total offense (294.7) and 107th in scoring (18.6 ppg). UCLA’s QB has thrown 12 INTs and no TDs in his last 4 games and last week UCLA lost bad and did not give up an offensive TD….but they gave up four to the defense. The ATS numbers do not even matter in this game. USC will crush UCLA. We are taking the Trojans to win and cover!!! Keyshawn predicted a 63-3 final on The Herd today and we love that prediction!
Missouri “Paper” Tigers versus Oklahoma Sooners (-17) - This is a monster spread for a championship game but we are not afraid. Oklahoma is that good and they dominate every statistical category we track heads up against Mizzou. We do not even like what we hear coming out of the Missouri camp. Chase Daniel is talking about how they are no playing well and are waiting to play a perfect game and blah blah blah. They have no chance. Mizzou is not as physical and has one of the worst passng defenses in the nation. Mizzou was not able to stop Kansas and they sure won’t be able to stop Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS on the season and will continue to roll with a healthy DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown this team runs a lot more than people think and will really wear out Mizzou. Here are the ATS numbers:
Missouri
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Oklahoma
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
This is not the week to bet against Oklahoma. All signs point in their direction. We think Oklahoma can win this game in Texas Tech fashion. Take Oklahoma to win and cover!
Florida (-10) a versus Alabama - Huh? Double huh, huh? Alabama is the number one rated team in the country and they are 9.5 point dogs. Are you kidding us? Alabama ranks third in the Bowl Subdivision in scoring defense (11.5 ppg) and total defense (248.5 yards per game), and is eighth in time of possession (32:32). While Alabama has won primarily by keeping opponents out of the end zone, Florida (11-1, 7-1) boasts the nation’s third-highest scoring offense. The Gators average 46.3 points, and with Tim Tebow looking as sharp as ever, they’ve put up an average of 53.7 while winning each of their last seven games by at least four touchdowns. What Florida can rely on this season that it couldn’t in 2007 is a strong defense. Though the Gators offense is the unit garnering national recognition, their defense - like the Tide’s - is in the top 10 in the FBS in scoring defense (12.3 ppg) and total defense (275.7). Florida also has forced 32 turnovers, third-most in the country. This will be the 40th time the AP’s top two teams have met, with No. 1 holding a 23-15-1 edge. This is the first 1-2 matchup in a conference championship game. Here are the ATS numbers:
Alabama
Florida
Head-to-Head
Those head-to-head numbers are interesting. Here is how we see this game shaking out and our true thoughts on the teams and yes, you SEC homers will hate us for it. These are two of the most overrated teams in college football right now. Alabama has played the 88th hardest schedule in D-1 football and Florida has played only two teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 and they lost to one of them. We had to stick it to the SEC at least once in this post. Ha ha. Oh yeah, and the SEC only has 4 teams in the top 35 in the Sagarin rankings. This game will probably be more low scoring than people think. Both teams will look to run but with Cody in the middle, Florida will have a tough time running through that Alabama defense. With the loss of Percy Harvin, Florida will have even more trouble running their “dynamic” offense. It does not matter that the game is on turf, both teams have speed on both sides of the ball. So to us, Florida’s offense is overated because they have not played anybody and Alabama’s defense is underrated. Put the two together and you get a low scoring game. Alabama is white bread and plan vanilla. They play smash mouth, running football and John Parker Wilson is efficient enough to pull off the play action pass. We think this game will be close, a lot closer than 9.5 points and do not be surprised if Alabama wins outright. Remember, only two teams smacked Florida in the mouth this year….Ole Miss, which beat them and Miami, which kept it a lot closer than the score indicated. Florida is ripe for the picking. We are taking Alabama to cover!
Runny Pelvis Picks (32-36-1 on the season)
Pitt at UCONN (-2.5) : Pitt is playing well (finally). They finally have a good blend of pass and run. The thing that sticks out to me is their D. They are playing extremely wll andschmopped an explosive WVA team last week in the Backyard Brawl. UConn, although at home, does not have WVA’s firepower. I love Pitt getting points. I’m taking Pitt to cover.
South Florida at West Virginia (-7) : The Bulls are terrible on the road-very much so against Big East teams. WVA needs a win this week to salvage some respect for their season. I think this is a pretty easy one. I’m taking WVA to cover.
Arizona State at Arizona (-10.5): I’m not a fan of either team, but in civil war games like these where the teams are pretty evenly matched, I’m taking the points. Zona will win, but ASU can keep it within 10.5. I’m taking ASU and the points.
Flash Flash Picks (24-16-3 on the season)
East Carolina at Tulsa (-11.5) - I think I have lost every single game that I have bet on Tulsa this year and that flat out pisses me off. I pick the UNDER and they go OVER, I pick the OVER and they go UNDER, I pick them to win and cover and they lose outright. Well call me crazy but I am betting on these crazy bastards once again. Here is why I like it. Tulsa is 7-4 ATS on the season and is 5-0 ATS at home, they rush for 259 yards per game versus East Carolina’s 119 yards per game, have a slightly better run defense and turn the ball over less per game. Here are the ATS numbers:
East Carolina
- Pirates are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
- Pirates are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Pirates are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Tulsa
- Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
- Golden Hurricane are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
I love that East Carolina is 0-6 in their last 6 on the road and Tulsa is 5-0 ATS at home in their last 5. Hopefully the Golden Hurricanes redeem themselves in my eyes cause if they don’t I am going to turn their Golden Hurricane into a steamy Golden Shower. I am taking Tulsa to win and cover!
RPJ $yndicate picture of the day
Flash Flash and Runny
Week 9 Free NCAA Winning Picks: Nittany Lions Lose and the Return of Terry Tate
First things first. RPJ $yndicate is 27-27-2 on the season, pissed off and ready to roll to another winning week. Flash Flash, after his degenerate Tuesday two play is 13-6-2 on the season. Runny Pelvis is still cleaning toilets and bringing up the rear at 21-23-2. On a positive note, all three of our NCAA systems produced winning weekends last week and we are looking to continue with this momentum. If you are new to this website, our story is an easy one to get your hands around. We publish our picks for free and back up 100% of our picks with cold hard cash. RPJ $syndicate picks are our best ideas of the week and Flash and Runny’s individual picks are picks that did not meet the combo test for RPJ but are picks we still love on our own and are betting. When you follow our picks and win, we share the gains and we will not mention the flip side of the equation. All positive thoughts this week!!! We do not only put up our picks for free, we paste our website with hot chicks. NCAA football picks revolve around hot chicks and nice arses. For example,
It has been brought to our attention that the more pics of hot chicks we post, the better our football picks are so enjoy the show this week. If you want to send us an email send it to rpjsyndicate@gmail.com and on of these days our Facebook page will be up and running. On with the picks…
RPJ $yndicate Picks (27-27-2 record this season)
Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-25.5) - This is the first game in our MAC-Key attackey tri-fecta play. We always say that when you find a good thing you keep riding it. This game is just like Bronco Busting. Bronco Busting occurs when a guy is penetrating a woman while in the missionary position or doggy style. He has his friends hiding in the closet (planned before the sexual act will happen)and when he yells a code word such as “tokyo” the friends bust out of the closet, and the guy who is performing the sex act must try to stay on top of the girl similar to a Bull Riding Rodeo. This is where the act of Bronco Busting occurs. Well Ball State is like the bronco, they are 6-0 against the spread and we are going to bet them until they fail us. Nate Davis is legit and Ball State’s D is coming around. Runny is actually road tripping for this one so he can be there to watch the beatdown in person . The ATS numbers:
Eastern Michigan
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Eagles are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Ball State
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cardinals are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Cardinals are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.
Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Cardinals are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games overall.
Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 conference games.
Cardinals are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games on grass.
Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Throw in the fact that Eastern Michigan is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings and this one is signed, sealed and delivered. Ball State wins and covers!!!
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois (-7.5) - Game 2 in MAC-key attackey and we are pulling another slogan from the Urban Dictionary. This is the Hot Giblet Game. A Hot Giblet is while plowing a chick from behind, the man poos in his hand and smacks the girl in the face with it. Northern Illinois and their 5-1 record agains the spread is going to Hot Giblet Bowling Green.
Bowling Green
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
Northern Illinois
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Huskies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Head-to-Head
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The ATS numbers are pretty positive for both teams with the home team getting the edge. Also, Bowling Green can not stop the run and N. Illinois runs the ball very effectivley. Throw in the fact that Bowling Green turns the ball over at an almost 2-1 clip and we have ourselves a winner. We are taking Northern Illinois to win and cover!!!
Central Michigan (-4.5) at Toledo -We are finally coming back to our boy LeFevour.
It has been a long time since we jumped on his bandwagon but it is time to do so again. We got word that LeFevour is probable this weekend but his backup, Brian Brunner is now slouch himself. This game is definitely the Screaming Rhino game. A Screaming Rhino is when you are getting a rimjob and let out a scream followed by a poo in the chick’s face, thus followed by a loud, deep, grunt!!! The Chips are going to Screaming Rhino all over Toledo. The ATS numbers are:
Central Michigan
Chippewas are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Chippewas are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Chippewas are 13-3-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chippewas are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
Chippewas are 21-5-3 ATS in their last 29 conference games.
Chippewas are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 games on turf.
Chippewas are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS win.
Chippewas are 28-9-3 ATS in their last 40 games overall.
Chippewas are 22-8-3 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Toledo
Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rockets are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 home games.
Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Rockets are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Not overwhelmingly in The Chips favor but throw in the fact that The Chips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against Toledo and we are good to go. Central Michigan wins and covers!
Duke at Vanderbilt (-10.5) -The battle of the Southern nerds. Just saying Vandy is from the SEC and Duke is from the ACC should be enough to set you straight on this game. Also, Duke is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Vanderbilt and this game is over. Vanderbilt is one of the best cover teams in the country at 6-1 ATS and is 3-0 ATS at home. Heard enough yet? Vandy wins and covers easily!
Virginia at Georgia Tech (-14) - Virginia has seen a bit of a turnaround since their USC beat down and QB debacle. However, Georgia Tech has a great coach and one of the best front 7 on defense in the country. Georgia Tech won at Clemson and Boston College and their only blemish is a 3 point loss at VA Tech but they did cover and are 5-0 ATS on the season. We love riding winning cover teams until they blow it. We love Georgia Tech’s defense as a whole. Their D is ranked in the top 10 in the nation and leads the nation in tackles for loss with 9.0 per game. Ridiculous. Also, Georgia Tech is 5th in the nation in scoring defense at 11.6 points per game allowed. We do not expec this game to be close and are not afraid of the 14 points. Here are three ATS points we love.Home team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia Tech. This is a revenge game for Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech wins big and covers!!!
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Oklahoma State at Texas (OVER 68.5) -We are not even going to worry about who wins this game. What we do know is that both teams score in bunches. The OVER is screaming to take it in this game. Check this out:
Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 games in October.
Over is 32-13 in Cowboys last 45 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 15-7 in Cowboys last 22 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 23-11 in Cowboys last 34 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games overall.
Over is 6-0 in Longhorns last 6 conference games.
Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Longhorns last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Longhorns last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 18-6-1 in Longhorns last 25 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Longhorns last 8 games on grass.
Over is 20-7-1 in Longhorns last 28 games following a ATS win.
Over is 25-10-1 in Longhorns last 36 games following a S.U. win.
And the icing on the cake….Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Time for some girls….
The girls say to take the OVER and so do we!!!
Georgia at LSU (-1) -The girls of the SEC really know how to support their teams.
LSU is coming off their win at South Carolina and Georgia is coming off another disappointing win. All wins are good but the tires are coming off the hot rod in Athens. Georgia can not get through this season with their schedule and inexperience on their OL. This season will set the Dawgs up for next year but this is not their year. LSU’s defense will run through Georgia’s line all day long and that will limit Knowshon and turn Georgia into a one dimensional team. Stafford has shown that he is not capable of carrying the load. The ATS numbers primarily back Georgia but the most important one in thie contest is the fact that the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. It is never easy to play in Baton Rouge. LSU has won 6 consecutive games against top 10 teams and the streak will continue this weekend. We are taking LSU to win and cover!
Baylor at Nebraska (-13) -This is one of our favorite games of the weekend. Bo Pelini is showing signs of turning things around in Lincoln. Nebraska won at Iowa State last weekend and took Texas Tech to the wire on the road. The only real non-competitive game was against Missouri when Mizzou was running hot. Baylor is just not good and will be playing this game on the road where they are not good. Baylor is 0-2 on the road this season, lost 6 straight on the road overall and lost 8 straight road game sin the Big 12. Here are the ATS numbers:
Baylor
Bears are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
Bears are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Bears are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bears are 5-16 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Nebraska
Cornhuskers are 18-41-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Cornhuskers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cornhuskers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Cornhuskers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on field turf.
Cornhuskers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Cornhuskers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Head-to-Head
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Well the ATS numbers were underwhelming but the Head-to-Head numbers are great. Also, Nebraska hits our secret model that helped us pick the UCLA/Fresno State game. A lot of you have asked what this model is and we have to keep it a secret. Nobody else looks at games like us and when these opportunities come up we just tell you to take it. This model was our best bet in 2007 as a 7-1 winner. With that we are taking Nebraska to win and cover!!!
Before we get to the game of the week, Terry Tate returned to video this week. We love Terry Tate and here he literally jacks up Sarah Palin. Check this out….
Penn State at Ohio State (+2.5) - This is the game of the week. If Ohio State wins, it validates USC’s season and if Penn State wins it significantly enhances their chances to run the table. The Vegas wiseguys pounced on this line when it opened at 1 and bet it up to the 2 - 2.5 range. This scares the pants off of us but we do not get it. Do you know where Penn State was ranked in the pre-season AP Top 25? They were ranked 22nd; behind Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois in the Big Ten. Why are we bringing up the pre-season. It is simple, all “the experts” want to talk about is how Ohio State struggles against elite teams, fast teams and teams that run the spread offense. Well Penn State’s talent, speed and elite status are not justified in the realm of comparing them to the talent on USC, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, etc… Penn State is Big Ten elite on paper right now but has not faced a defense like Ohio State’s this season. Ohio State has depth on both sides of the ball and experience on both sides of the ball. When the season started who did you hear about….Boeckman, Beanie, Laurinitus, Jenkins, etc… Penn State was an afterthought. This game is not going to be a blow out for multiple reasons; 1) the game is in Columbus, a place Penn State has not won since 1978 and has never won at since they joined the Big 10. 2) Defense wins games and Ohio State’s is better top to bottom 3) Ohio State is better than they were at USC and Pryor is a workhorse who is improving every game. 4) Penn State is completely untested and will be tested in this game. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Penn State
Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
Nittany Lions are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Nittany Lions are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Ohio State
Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Buckeyes are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Head-to-Head
Home team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Nittany Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Ohio State.
It looked pretty good for Penn State until we go to the Head-to-Head numbers. Just like it is tough to play in Baton Rouge, it is tough to play in Columbus, during Ohio State’s homecoming on national tv. We will end on one note and to steer you mentally in the right direction. If you think Penn State has elite talent on both sides of the ball that rivals, Florida, Texas, USC, Oklahoma, etc… then bet Penn State because of the elite team versus Ohio State argument. If you do not think Penn State is legit then hammer Penn State. there is a lot to be said for the senior leadership on Ohio State and the pride and emotion they will be playing with for their last homecoming game ever. We are taking Ohio State to cover.
Flash Flash Picks (13-6-2 on the season)
I won big when I show ass so here goes. Flash Flash Ass pic of the weekend #1
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois (UNDER 46.5) - These ATS numbers are ridiculous. Not sure why I could not get Runny to jump on these but enjoy:
- Over is 9-2 in Falcons last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 conference games.
- Over is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 games on turf.
- Over is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
- Under is 11-4 in Falcons last 15 games in October.
- Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 7-3 in Falcons last 10 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Huskies last 9 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Huskies last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Huskies last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1 in Huskies last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Huskies last 8 games in October.
- Under is 13-3-2 in Huskies last 18 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 13-3-1 in Huskies last 17 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 13-3 in Huskies last 16 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Huskies last 16 games on turf.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Huskies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 20-6-1 in Huskies last 27 games overall.
- Under is 20-8-2 in Huskies last 30 conference games.
Northern Illinois is simply the kings of the UNDER. I am taking the UNDER in this game!
Flash Flash ass pic of the week #2
Colorado State at San Diego St. (+9) - I did pretty damn well with my ridiculous games of the week last week. I loved betting against SDSU last week and picked them to get destroyed at New Mexico and they went down 70-7. Only team they beat this year was Idaho. SDSU has a terrible, one dimensional offense because they can’t run worth a lick and their defense is just as bad. Colorado State wins every statistical category that I look at and I love betting against teams that can not stop the run and turn the ball over. Makes for a very tired defense. Here are some great ATS numbers:
Colorado State
Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Rams are 33-16-1 ATS in their last 50 games in October.
SDSU
Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Head-to-Head
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in San Diego State.
Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
I love that I only need 9 points in this game. Should be no problem. Take Colorado State to win and cover!
Flash Flash ass pic of the week #3
Central Florida at Tulsa (OVER 71.5) - If you are not on the Tulsa OVER bandwagon yet you are missing out big time. Tulsa is effing ridiculous. Tulsa has put up the following points this year on their way to a 4-1-1 record for the over this season: 77, 37, 63, 62 (1-AA school so no line), 56, 56 and 45. Do I have your attention yet? Check out these numbers:
- Over is 6-1 in Knights last 7 games on turf.
- Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Golden Hurricane last 7 games on turf.
- Over is 5-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games overall.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Golden Hurricane last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Golden Hurricane last 7 games following a ATS win.
Last week versus UTEP, Tulsa and UTEP scored 56 points in the first quarter. I am not sure Tulsa will score 70 again but I damn well know they will bust the OVER with ease. Take Tulsa and the OVER in this Sunday night special!
Runny Pelvis Picks (21-23-2 on the season)
Texas Tech at Kansas (pick em): Unlike the media, I’m not sold on Texas Tech at all this year. Don’t get we wrong, they are a good team and Crabtree may be the best pro prospect in NCAA right now. However, their schedule has not been great. I think they are overrated. I love Kansas at home in this one, and I love this line. Vegas knows Tech is not as good as they are hyped up to be, and Kansas needs this win bad to play for a big Bowl. FACTS: Kansas is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 against Tech. I’m taking Kansas.
Illinois at Wisconsin (+2.5): I love this line, too. The Badgers have sucked it all season, but I think they are due. The Fighting Illini are fresh off a beatdown of the Hoosiers, but they have not looked good in big games. Madison is a very, very tough place to play. I think Juice will give in to the pressure and do what he does best-turn the ball over. The ATS numbers favor Illinois, but I’m rollin’ with the Badgers for redemption. I’m taking Wisconsin +2.5.
Colorado at Missouri (-24.5): This is a ton of points to give, but I’m down. Mizzou has been terrible as of late, but so have the Buffalos. Colorado has not scored more than 14 points in their past 3 games. They are not a good road team. I love Mizzou. Chase Daniel will be looking to exact some revenge for his team’s recent drop. He will gladly take it out on Colorado. FACTS: Mizzou is 7-1 ATS at home against teams they beat the year before and Colorado is 4-35 ATS when they lose straight-up. See you Buffaloes!!! Take Mizzou -24.5.
Virginia Tech at Florida State (+5): VaTech lost a tough one last week at BC. They will be looking for payback this week. This is a big ACC game for the Hokies. They need this win bad. FSU has been good, but they can struggle against well coached teams. FACTS: Seminoles are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 at home against the Hokies and the Hokies are 10-1 ATS away against teams they beat the year before. I’m taking the Hokies and the points.
Wyoming at TCU (-31): This may be my favorite game of my picks. This is a lot of points, but it won’t matter. TCU can put up some points and their D is stacked. Wyoming has neither going for them. This will be a 35 point win for the Horned Frogs. FACTS: Wyoming has not covered this year, they are 0-9 ATS against teams they beat the year before while the Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS at home off double digit wins against teams that beat them the year before. Take TCU and forget the points.
BC at UNC (-2): This game is all about who’s not playing. No Yates or Tate this week for UNC. They have no chance!! FACTS: UNC is 2-10 ATS off straight-up loses as favorites against teams that are .700 or better and 2-10 ATS as favorites of less than 6 points. I’m taking BC and the points.
Northwestern at Indiana (+8): This is IU’s homecoming, but trust me when I tell you, the Hooisers are terrible. Very, very bad. I’ve seen them in person. They are not good. Their best player, Kellen Lewis, is nursing a bum ankle this week. He relies on mobility to make plays, so even if he plays, he will be limited. That is not good news for the Hoosiers. The Wildcats are well coached and play disciplined football. They want this win to climb the Big 10 ladder. They will pound the Hoosiers. I’m taking Northwestern and giving the points.
Cincinnati at UCONN (+2.5): This is a tough game to pick because the teams are well matched and very similar (as evidenced by the spread). However, I think it comes down to homefield advantage. FACTS: The Huskies are 10-1 ATS at home against the Big East. That is HUGE for a team that has not had a football program for that long. I’m taking UConn at home.
Louisiana Tech at Army (-2.5): LaTech is one of the worse road teams in the country. Army has been scrappy and is putting together a solid season. LaTech has been the exact opposite. FACTS: LaTech is 2-16-1 ATS after scoring 35 points or more. I’m representing for the Armed Forces and taking Army.
UNLV at BYU (OVER 56): BYU came back down to earth last week against TCU. Talk about a big loss!!! However, they can put up points. So can UNLV. UNLV smells blood in the water and will try to exploit BYU again. They can, so I think they will put up some points. BYU will be looking for payback for losing last week and will do the same. This will be a shootout and 56 is not a lot of points. Take the OVER 56.
South Florida at Louisville (+3.5): The Bulls won this game big last year. This year they roll into Papa John’s Stadium against a Cards team that is not as good as it was last year. The Bulls are damn good and they still have a jacked D. They will shut the Cards down. Take South Florida on the road and give the points.
RPJ $yndicate Ass Picture of the Week
As always, good luck with your picks.
Flash and Runny
12/22 Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick and Hot Chicks: Southern Miss versus Cincinnati
We are throwing another Heidi Klum bet out there for this game.
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.
Southern Miss versus Cincinnati (-11.5) in the Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss’ Coach resigned at the end of this season after 17 years in what was a disappointing season because this team was predicted to win Conference USA this season. He will be coaching his last game and some experts think this will be a motivating factor. Other factors include Southern Miss having a top notch Conference USA defense, giving up 23.6 points per game and 363.2 yards per game…if that even is supposed to be considered good. Cincinnati has a defense that struggles against the pass but is solid against the run. This matchup simply looms as a poor one for Southern Miss and that is why the spread is in the double digits. Southern Miss runs more than they pass and Cincy only gives up 105.7 yards per game. In addition, Cincy has a plus 17 turnover ratio compared to Southern Miss at minus 2. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Southern Miss
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Golden Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
Bearcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Bearcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA.
Bearcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Bearcats are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bearcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Bearcats are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Bearcats are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Head to Head
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Cincy was also 8-2-1 against the spread this season. Do you see how this game will play out…we do. Southern Miss will not be able to run on Cincy, will fall behind, pass more than they are used to and start to turn the ball over and Cincy will steam roll them. Southern Miss’ lone victory against a bowl team came on Sept. 15 against East Carolina. In their other four games against bowl teams, they lost by an average of 15.5 points. Do you see why we are fine with this line where it is?
Cincy wins and covers!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
NCAA Football Week 8 Picks: 9 Winning Picks and a Trip To See TD Jesus
We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.
For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:
Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
Turnover ratio
When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.
The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:
1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) - Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.
2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) - Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.
3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) - Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.
4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) - We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.
5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) - Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.
6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) - Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.
The “Wash” Game of the week
Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.
7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) - Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.
The SEC Road Cover of the Week
Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) - The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.
The Fever Game
9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) - Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.
On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.
*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight
This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.
We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.
Flash Flash and Runny
Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!
Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:
Saturday, September 29, 2007
1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) - Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.
2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) - I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!
3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) - Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.
4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) - The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!
5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) - Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.
6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) - This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.
7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) - Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.
8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) - We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.
Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!
Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:
Saturday, September 29, 2007
1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) - Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.
2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) - I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!
3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) - Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.
4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) - The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!
5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) - Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.
6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) - This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.
7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) - Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.
8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) - We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.
Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!
Flash Flash and Runny
NCAA Week 4 Football Picks: 5 Games including another Brinks Truck bet!!!
September, 28, 2007 - This is our week 4 picks…please click here for our week 5 picks.
Another week another round of victories. The Syndicate is 12-8 on the season and if you look at our picks on a unit basis we are up 8 units on the year and that is all that matters….profits and cash in our bulging pockets. As always….we put our money where our mouth is on every bet with no exceptions. If you have any games you are curious about please do not hesitate to post us a message/feedback and we will be happy to give you our thoughts. The NCAA football season finally has some history behind it and what I mean by that is that teams have played 2-3 games. A gambler’s paradise is opening weekend and bowl season. Opening weekend because there is not any information available and lines like LSU/Miss St this year and USC/Arkansas last year are terribly flawed and bowl season is equally as good because an entire season’s worth of history is available. We won our bowl bets last year at a better than 80% clip. We will not reveal everything we look at in picking our lines but this week we are going to share with you two new stats that we use to assess each matchup….Turnover margin and rushing stats. Read our picks below to understand:
Friday, September 21, 2007
1) OKLA (-23.5) @ Tulsa: We like Tulsa to cover in this one. 23.5 is too many at home. On paper both teams have a +2 turnover ratio, which is surprising considering Oklahoma has played a bunch of softies and played them at home. Tulsa is a pass first team so the running disparity will not come into play. This is Oklahoma’s first road game, and they are starting a freshman QB. Granted, he has looked amazing, but all his games have been at home and with the exception of Miami, they have not played anyone tough and is is too early to label Miami anything. Oklahoma’s O is ranked #3, but Tulsa is right behind them at #4. Tulsa is even ahead of Hawaii. We think they can keep it within 3 TDs and would not be surprised if it were much tighter in the 10-14 point range. Go with Tulsa on this one.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
2) THE BRINKS BET OF THE WEEK IS….UNC @ South Florida (-13) - South Florida is coming off a bye. They are +6 in turnover margin and rush for almost 60 more yards a game than their opponents. they won 37-20 on the road last year versus UNC and have more experience now. UNC is minus 4 in the takeaway game and has been outrushed 411 to 239. Long day for UNC and they are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15. South Florida is the winner and we advise betting 5 times your normal limit on this game. Our Brinks bets are 2-1 on the season. Kaching…what was that sound….Oh Yeah Kaching! Kaching! Kaching!!!!!
3) Mich St. (-11) @ ND - Notre Dame has been outrushed 718 to minus 14 on the season and is averages almost three turnovers a game. They are flat out bad and one of the worst teams in D-1 football. If you do not believe me just look at their season stats. Notre Dame literally has carried the ball 100 times for -14 yards. Do not be afraid of Michigan State’s poor showing last week against Pitt. They will come ready to play to erase the embarassing loss last year. Something to think about is Mich. St is 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 road games. However, ND is 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games on grass and Michigan St. is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 against ND. Bet Michigan St. all the way. Also, you have to love the Notre Dame homers that have dropped this line 2 points in the last couple of days.
4) Marshall @ Cincy (-24) - Cincy’s Defense is flat out nasty. They have caused 17 turnovers in three games and only committed 4. In addition they have outrushed their opponents 485 to 267 through three games. Marshall is minus 5 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio and has only caused one turnover and they have been outrushed 826 to 272. Marshall is 16-36-2 against the spread in their last 54 games…consistently terrible and we cashed with them against West Virginia. Cincy is 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall. 23.5 points might seem but with a defense that causes turnovers, we are not worried. Cincy all the way. Also, this is a “we learned our lesson” game. Do not bet against Cincy at home. Just ask Oregon St.
5) Ark. St. @ Tennessee (-19.5) - This is a very interesting game. Ark St. is 9-3 Against the spread in their last 12 versus the SEC and Tennessee is 9-28 against the spread in their last 37 home games. Looking a little deeper, Tennessee is minus 1 in turnover margin while Ark. St. is plus 3. In addition, Tennessee has been outrushed 575 to 341 while Ark St. has outrushed their opponents 375 to 213. Ark. St. played Texas tough and Texas is better than Tennessee. Ark. St. loves to rush and Tennessee will not be able to stop them all day and this will keep the game closer than people think. Ark. St. to cover.
Good luck with the picks and do not hesitate to share your thoughts or ideas or ask us to pick a game or tell you our reasons for not picking a game. We are here to show you that we are elite and are here to make you and us money. Plain and simple.
Flash Flash and Runny
NCAA Football: Week 2 picks - Even better than opening day!!!! - 6 picks
We went 5-2 last week.
Here are our picks for this weekend and make sure you notice the game times. One tonight, one Friday with 4 on Saturday.
Thursday, September 6
1) Oregon St (-3.5) at Cincinnati - Here is the deal with this game. Cincy is a tough team, especially at home. They almost beat Ohio St. last year. Also, Cincy opened up with a blowout of SE Missouri St. Well Bearcats fans… this is not SE Missouri St. Oregon St. is a scrappy team too. Last week they beat Utah 24-7 after starting very slow and going into the half tied at 7-7. That will not happen this week. Or. St. will be ready to play. As we stated last week, Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in NCAA football and they are getting Sammie Stroughter back this week. Sammie did not suit up last week and this week he will definitely be a difference maker.
Friday, September 7
2) Navy at Rutgers (-17) - This line is completely flawed and provides an opportunity just like the LSU/Miss St. game did last week. Rutgers should win this game by 30 points. Navy barely beat Temple last week and will simply can not hang with this Rutgers team. Last year the game was 34-0 and we do not see any reason why it will not be similar. We bet this game the hardest of the week at 5 times our normal bet.
3) West Virginia (-24) at Marshall - West Virginia knows they play a weak schedule and the only way the can compensate for it is to pummel teams and show off Slaton and White as Heisman candidates. Last year West Virginia won 42-10. West Virginia is 8-3-1 against the spread on turf in their last 12 and Marshall is 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Marshall could not stop the run last week against Miami and this West Virginia team can run significantly better than the Canes can. Do not fear 24 points. This has blowout written all over it.
4) Cal (-14) at Colorado St. - This game has let down written all over it. Cal was 2-3 on the road last year and has not impressed away from Berkeley. Colorado St. suffered a heart breaking loss against Colorado last week and what we saw is they can not stop the run. We all saw what happened to Tennessee when they let Forsett run wild. We know the Pac-10 inside and out and we think CAL has the weapons, the swagger and the right attitude this year. They know they can play with anybody and have USC at home this year. Cal is going to continue to roll, the nation just does not know it yet.
5) Southern Miss at Tennessee (-10.5) - Tennessee has won its last 12 home openers and is coming off the game where CAL smacked them around. One good addition is that of RB LaMarcus Coker who was suspended for the CAL game. So Miss rolled up rushing yards last week against Tennessee - Martin and I think Tennessee will work long and hard this week to recover from the holes they gave up to Forsett. So. Miss is 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road games and we do not think they have what it takes to compete against Tennessee after a loss.
6) Wisconsin (-25.5) at UNLV - UNLV is playing a red shirt freshman at QB and Wisconsin starts a 5th year senior. UNLV is not good against the run and the Badgers will look to run, run and run more with PJ Hill. UNLV is 2-6 against the spread against teams with a winning record and 7-17-1 against the spread in their last 25 games on grass. This spread should be over 30 and we are going to ride Wisconsin after missing out on their performance last week.
As always… our money is where our mouth is. If you ever want our opinions on games let us know. We check the blog often and will respond quickly. We want to reiterate that we are not here to pick every game, we simply pick games where we see flaws in the lines.
Flash Flash and Runny














