Betting
NCAA Football picks: Opening weekend = More boring than a Yo Gaba Gaba Live Show!
RPJ NCAA Record = 0-1. Yup just like we always do, we lost our first game of the year. The USC defense would not have been able to stop a powder puff team on Thursday night. That was embarrassing. We have a new feature this year, we created a page to track our results. Just click the tab at the top of our page and you will get to see all of our picks for the season.
This is one of the worst opening weekends in recent memory. Besides the Boise State/Va. Tech game do you care about any other game? Do any other games even warrant watching? Thinks will crank up again in a week but this week is terrible.
9/4/2010 - Washington at BYU (-2) - Pick = BYU - Locker and Sark will not be able to go to Mormon land and take down BYU. The Huskies are getting better but Locker needs a heck of a lot more talent around him to do anything. He should have left for the NFL. Dumbass cost himself millions to play for this rag tag bunch or losers. BYU wins by more than 2!
9/4/2010 - Oregon State at TCU (-13.5) - Pick = Oregon State - We actually think this will be a decent game. Yeah we know it usually takes The Beavers a few weeks to warm up but we think 13.5 points is simply too high. TCU wins but not by two TDs.
9/4/2010 - LSU (-9.5) at UNC (neutral site) - Pick = LSU - This game turned into a real stinker. UNC lost every returning starter on defense to suspension and their top 2 running backs. Just look at what happened to USC with an inexperienced secondary. Now you have an INEXPERIENCED ENTIRE DEFENSE!!!! UNC has zero chance. LSU wins big.
9/6/2010 - Boise State (-1.5) at Va. Tech (neutral site) = Pick = Boise State - The only decent game on the weekend and we think it won’t be as good as people think. We like Boise State and we like them to win easily.
NFL Championship Game Playoff Predictions: Jets vs. Colts and Vikings vs. Saints. It is Go Time!!
We locked in another 2-2 weekend last week. This time we won both AFC games and lost both NFC games. We are now 4-4 during the playoffs with 3 games left to make some serious coin. We totally blew the Cowboys/Vikings game and to quote Bill Simmons, we wish we cold have bet the Saints/Cards game after two Kurt Warner series. The Cards were just off big time and were done in the 1st quarter. We are looking to hit both games this weekend and in honor of one of our fan requests, we are dedicating this post to wet t-shirts. One interesting tidbit to remember when you bet this weekend…Dome teams are 4-1 all-time in conference championship games played on their home turf. The Vikings were the only casualty of that scenario when they lost to Atlanta, 30-27, as 10.5-point favorites in 1998. Be careful picking both underdogs.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Will the Colts be chasing the Jets? Read on to find out!
AFC Championship Game: NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-8) - First and foremost, this line is brutal. 7.5 - 8 points seems like the perfect line. We think the Colts will win but we love the value we can get with 8 points by taking the Jets and we do think the Jets have a chance to pull the major upset based on some of the finer points we list below. Betting is all about value so we really want you to understand this game before placing any bets. We are just going to throw out a bunch of points that we think matter.
- Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The two losses were the two they tanked to end the season.
- Bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.
- Not sure the value in this stat but Peyton Manning is 7-5 lifetime against the Jets and has thrown 13 TDs with 13 INTs in the 12 games.
- In their first matchup, The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.
- In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.
- The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.
- In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in the playoffs this year.
- In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.
- The Jets are 7-0 when Revis has a pick this year.
- The Jets defense was league best in the following categories this season: gave up 236 points, QBs completed 51.7% of their passes against the Jets, gave up 153.7 yards passing per game, game up 8 passing TDs all season and opposing QBs had a QB rating of 58.8 against the Jets. All we can say is WOW!
- The Colts offensive had the following highlights on the season: Threw the second most passes, had the most completions, threw for the second most passing yards with 282.2 yards per game, led the league in passing TDs, completed 66.9% of their passes and had a QB rating of 95.4.
- This line looks like a bit of a trap. The line opened at Colts -7.5 and is bouncing between -7.5 and -8. 61% of the money is on the Colts and we think with that type of action we would see this line trend upwards and it has not. Only 5Dimes has wild line swings right now and if you pick the right time you can get this line as low as -5.5 and as high as -9.5.
We love this line at Colts -8 for Jets bettors and would recommend taking the Colts at anything below 7 points. We typically try and bet underdogs to cover when we think they can win outright. We think the Jets have a slight chance of doing this, not as much as we usually like but we think 8 points provides too much value for a Championship game. With this being said, We are taking the Jets to cover!!! One last note to throw out there to make you more confident in our pick, the Colts are 0-5 straight up playing against the 3-4 Defense in their last 5 games. Take that to the bank!!!
NY Jets
- Jets are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
- Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
- Colts are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
- Colts are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
- Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 5-1 in Jets last 6 games in January.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Jets last 9 vs. AFC.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Jets last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 playoff games.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-3 in Colts last 10 games in January.
NFC Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - This might be a large mistake but we are not impressed with this Vikings team and we think they have some key injuries. Furthermore, the win against Dallas was not impressive at all. The Cowboys quit as soon as Suisham missed the 2nd FG (which was early). The Boys O is nowhere near as good as the Saints and the Boys were cutting them up until Romo became Romo and fumbled the ball 4 times in the 1st half. Brees will absolutely not make that mistake and he is locked in with 3 legit receivers and Shockey. The Vikes secondary is overrated and Winfield is 5′-10″. The Boys matched Roy Williams (6′4″) up against him and didn’t throw to him once. Brees will pick that match-up apart. Brees will 3 step drop and throw all game and the Vikes D line will get frustrated by not being able to get him. That was the formula the Panthers, Bears and Cards all used against the Vikes and it worked like a charm. The Boys are dumb because they watched no tape on it and Romo held the ball too long. Brees will eat that up. He is smart because he will take a 3 and out over forcing the ball any day of the week. Romo hasn’t figured that out yet. We think Reggie Bush will continue to be a force. Remember, Reggie is playing for a contract so it was not surprising to us to watch him run physically for the first time in his career. Coach Payton is not a moron like Jason Garrett and will definitely mix things up. The Super Dome will be insane and this stadium is special and getting more and more vibrant and relevant as a home field advantage as the playoffs move forward. The Vikes are clearly not as good on the road. Favre is due for a typical Favre 3 pick game. The Saints win over the Cards was way more impressive to me than the Vikes win over the Boys. The Saints dominated one of the best postseason QB’s in the league’s history and they made Fitzgerald a non-factor. I think the Saints will get up early and Favre will just start slinging the ball around. Peterson will be a non-factor and he hasn’t been good at all down the stretch. Plus, he fumbles like crazy. He had none against the Boys so we think he is due. So we bet you can sense where we are going with the smorgasbord of anti Vikings propaganda. If you thought this, you thought correct. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!
I am Super Bowl Bound Bitches!!!!
Minnesota Vikings
- Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Vikings are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Saints are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Under is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Vikings last 6 playoff games.
- Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 21-5 in Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games overall.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Vikings last 10 games in January.
- Under is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 vs. NFC.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Vikings last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 36-15-1 in Vikings last 52 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 35-16-1 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Saints last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 7-0 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in January.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Saints last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Saints last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 13-6-1 in Saints last 20 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 48-23-2 in Saints last 73 vs. a team with a winning record.
NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions: The Weekend of the Underdog!
Well we went 2-0 on Saturday and 0-2 on Sunday in predicting the Wild Card games so we ride our two game losing streak into the divisional round. We went back to look at some of the data and found out some surprising results. The Divisional round pits the two best teams against the wild card followers and a lot of the betting experts are quick to point out that the home team wins most of the time. Well we beg to differ. Three of the four road teams in last year’s Divisional round won straight up and all three were 3-point underdogs or greater. Each of those games fell under the posted total with the dogs holding their opponents to 13, 11 and 10 points. Two years ago, both Sunday road team won outright and three years ago two road teams won. Since 2003, the road team has won outright 11 out of 24 times. So this thinking is not rocket science but we are simply mentioning it to make you think. When we dig deeper into the games this weekend and crunch the numbers through our proprietary system, we came to the same conclusion in picking our winners….this is the weekend of the underdog!!!
Tom Brady 2010 = No trophy for you!!!
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Arizona at New Orleans (-7) - This is one of the toughest games to call this weekend. The Cardinals got smoked by Green Bay in week 17 then race out to a huge lead in the Wild Card rematch, blow the lead, miss a game winning FG and then win by freak play in overtime. The New Orleans Saints have lost 3 in a row. Some would argue that they had home field wrapped up and therefore let up but the problems started the first week of December. The Saints smoked the Pats to end November and then barely got by Atlanta and Washington. Then they lost to Dallas at home and followed it up by losing to Tampa at home and then Carolina on the road. So there are two things to think about: 1) Will the real Cardinals team please stand up and will they play for 4 quarters 2) Were the Saints tanking it and if so can they come out blazing? The brilliance of betting with a line spread is we do not care who wins. Can the Cardinals win? Sure they can. Can the Saints win by 3 TDs? Sure they can. Here is what we do know. The Cardinals can score on anybody at any time. The Packers had the second rated defense in the league and Warner had more TD passes than incompletions (5 to 4). Just sick numbers. Are you willing to be against him? The Saints have been out rushed in 5 of the last 6 games and the one game they were not out rushed they had 6 more rushing yards than their opponent. Not impressive. The Cardinals actually rushed for 150+ yards against the Packers and their coaching staff knows the value of rushing in the playoffs. They learned the Pittsburgh way… Rush and play defense. And on top of the Pittsburgh way, the Cards have Kurt Warner at QB and are deep in the offensive skill areas. It does not even matter if Boldin plays. We are not sure New Orleans can simply turn the juice back on, come out firing on offense, pressure on defense and impose their will. If we had to pick the team that can do this right now it is Arizona and with that….We are betting Arizona to cover!! The line looks legit. Saints opened at -7 and it has remained pretty flat. Right now 60% of the money is on the Cardinals and we are seeing some line drops out there.
Hey Mr. Brees....I have a ring biatch!!! What do you have?
Arizona
- Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
- Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
- Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinals are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
- Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) - This is the one game we have been hemming and hawing about. The Ravens looked straight nasty last weekend against the Pats. Yes their QB was 4-10 for less than 40 yards, 34 to be exact, with one INT but they did not need him to win and that is scary. Ray Rice is on a tear and is earning elite status and a top 5 pick in fantasy football next season. So we have a hot Ravens team and that brings us to the Colts. A lot of times people forget the “loser” label that Peyton Manning used to have before he won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl gave him the pass. Here are some Peyton facts. Peyton has not won, We repeat has not won a playoff game following a first round bye. Jim Caldwell has tried to mix things up this week practicing first team O versus first team D but is that really enough? time will tell. Also, since the Colts won the Super Bowl, they have won zero playoff games. So how does this positive, hot Ravens team mesh with the “losing” label of the Colts. We need to look at their historical head to head matchups. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards in five straight versus Indianapolis while getting held to 3.3 per carry. Rice has 26 attempts for 94 yards in two meetings. The Ravens have committed 25 turnovers during their seven-game skid in the series and they’ve never won in four trips to Indianapolis, falling 31-3 last season. Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception while Flacco was picked off three times. Flacco, 15 of 29 for 136 yards over the last two weeks, is bothered by a hip injury that had him limping in practice this week. So when we combine the specific Colts versus Ravens matchup we definitely have to lean one way. We do not think the Ravens are capable of repeating their efforts of last week and a rested Colts team will come out blazing. This line is holding pretty flat at Colts -7 to -6.5. 69% of the money is on the Colts, which might smell trap. Watch to see where the money and line go as we get closer to kickoff. We are betting the Colts to win and cover!
Ravens
- Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
- Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
- Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
- Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
- Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Colts are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Colts are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Colts are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
- Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
- Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
I am looking at you Ray Lewis!!!!
Sunday, January 17, 2010
We are going to kick Brett right where it hurts!!!
Dallas at Minnesota (-3) - This will probably be one of the most viewed NFL games ever. Favre in the playoffs versus the Cowboys. Ratings City!!! A lot is being made of the Cowboys right now shaking the December and playoff bug. What is not being mentioned is how good the Cowboys are right now on both side of the ball and in the trenches. Just to recap the Cowboys 4 game winning streak and ATS winning streak….
1/9/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards.
1/3/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 24-0 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards (freaky coincidence - 142).
12/27/2010 - Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0 and out rush the Skins by 65 yards.
12/19/2010 - Cowboys win at New Orleans 24-17 and out rush the Saints by 80 yards.
Seeing a trend here? We are. Playoff football is won by rushing the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing awesome defense. The Cowboys are playing sick defense and doing it without blitzing. D Ware and A Spencer are locked and loaded and destroying O-linemen. The Cowboys are running at will and Romo is playing efficient, mistake free football. Winning playoff combinations. The Vikings have an equally impressive defense but Jared Allen has slowed the last month. Not saying he will not rise up for the Cowboys game but he has not continually dominated and improved game after game like the Cowboys men down the stretch. We also get nervous for Flozell Adams. He becomes “Mr. Jump offsides” when the crowd gets noisy. Also, the Viking’s O-line is not letting A-Pete run wild like he did in the beginning of the season. It has been a loooooong time sine #28 broke 100 yards rushing. This is largely a momentum play, but we are getting points. The head-to-head stats do not support our theory so buyer beware. This line looks pretty legit. The line opened at Vikes -3 and is bouncing back and forth to -2.5 with 55% of the money on the Cowboys. We are betting the Cowboys to cover!
I just fisted you twice Philly!!!! Take that!
Dallas
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in January.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
I could not win in Green Bay, NY and I am not going to win in Minnesota. WHY ME? Why, Why, Why???
- Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
- Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Vikings are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
Time to retire again, or not, or retire, or not, or retire.
NY Jets at San Diego (-8) - The Jets run game and defense are hot right now. Sanchez played exactly as a rookie QB needs to play in the playoffs and that is playing efficiently and playing not to lose. He was perfect last week and we look for more of the same this week. There is some danger in this game if you are a Chargers fan. The Chargers were not able to run the ball well this season and certainly will not be able to run on the Jets. If the Chargers can not run then they will be pass happy and that puts them in the way of the Jets blitzes and the Jets MVP, Mr. Revis. On the flip side, the Chargers D gave up 4.45 yards per rush and the Jets O rushed for 4.53 yards per carry. Now we are not predicting a Jets victory because we do not have to. We are here to make winning bets and 8 points are too many points for this battle. This line opened at Chargers -9 and is now down to -8 or -7.5 depending on the sports book. We are seeing 63% of the money on the Jets so we know this is a true line. We are betting the Jets to cover in this game!!!
Coming at you V-Jax!!!
NY Jets
- Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
- Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jets are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The "Dirty" Gets a W!
San Diego
- Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
- Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Chargers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Chargers are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions: 4 Games, 4 Stories, 4 Toes and 4 Winners!
We love the NFL playoffs. We crushed them last season and we are taking our winning regular season record into the postseason. We are going to pick all 4 games for you and the trends are easy to spot. You do not stink it up the week before the playoffs against the same opponent and come out strong and you do not beat Tom Brady at home. We are mingling our picks with a Wild Card playoff salute to the Toe of the Camel. On with the picks…
Saturday, January 9, 2010
NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.
NY Jets
- Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
- Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
- Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
- Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Bengals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bengals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Bengals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
- Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite.
- Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?
Eagles
- Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
- Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
- Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
- Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC East.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in January.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
- Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.
Ravens
- Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
- Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.
- Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Patriots are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
- Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Patriots are 0-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!
Green Bay
- Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
- Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Week 17 Winning NFL Picks: The End of the Road!
RPJ Betting $yndicate - We threw in a loser last week and were 4-5 on the weekend. Our record now stands at 56-48-1. Nothing to get too excited about but it is a winning record. We are not going to pick games for Week 17. Who knows what kind of effort and players you will get this week. Better to avoid it and recoup for the playoffs next week.
Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:
Indy +8 at Buffalo
Saints +7 at Panthers
Jags +1.5 at Browns
Bears at Lions +3
Pats +7 at Texans
Steelers at Dolphins +3
Giants +9 at Vikes
49ers at Rams +8
Falcons at Bucs +1.5
Packers +3 at Cards
Chiefs +10 at Broncos
Ravens at Raiders +10.5
Skins +3 at Chargers
Titans at Seahawks +6
Eagles +3 at Cowboys
Bengals +9.5 at Jets
Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)
Week 16: Arizona Cardinals
Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets
FREE NBA PICKS FOR DECEMBER 29, 2009
Greetings. We were very bad last night-our first losing night in quite some time- with a terrible 3-4 record. We did nail our Lock, but our overall season ATS record now stands at 109-92-5. For Locks, we are 4-2-1. On with tonight’s picks:
LOCKS:
Knicks @ Pistons -4.5: Only one Lock tonight and this is it. The Pistons are finally getting their stars healthy, but they are in a terrible funk. It will take some time for them to get back to the standards they are used to. That said, we love them tonight. Consider that the home team in this match-up is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings. We love the healthy Pistons. Take the Pistons and give the points.
PICKS
Thunder @ Wizards +1: For the first time this season the Thunder have won 3 straight games. They go for their 4th tonight and we love their chances. They are hot right now and Kevin Durant is playing as well as anyone. Take the Thunder and give the point.
Cavs @ Hawks -2: We love that the Hawks are favored in this. We think they are a much better team. They play well together and they can run with anyone. They have too many weapons. Look for a terrible game from Shaq tonight. Take the Hawks and give the points.
Pacers @ Bulls -7: This line is pretty comical given how bad the Bulls are and their coaching woes. Still, they should rally around their coach and play with some intensity at home, but don’t be surprised if the pacers win outright. This is too many points to pass up. Take the Pacers and the points.
Timberwolves @ Spurs -11: The T’Wolves are on a decent spell as of late while the Spurs have been consistently inconsistent. On paper the Spurs dominate this match-up, but the Spurs are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against the NBA Northwest and they are very bad as double digit favorites. Take the T’Wolves and the points.
Hornets @ Rockets -6: We are very curious as to how the Rockets are going to respond to the TMac drama. The Hornets are iffy at best, but we love the points. Plus, the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Houston. We like CP3 in this one. He will get them the cover. Take the Hornets and the points.
Warriors @ Lakers -11.5: The Lakers seem to be in one of their ruts, but they are at home facing a Warriors team that is still injured and just not as good. This is the perfect rebound game for the Lakers. Even without Artest, the Lakers should dominate this game. Take the Lakers and give the points.
Seven more games. Good luck.
Flash and Runny
FREE NBA PICKS FOR DECEMBER 28, 2009
Greetings. We are closing the 2009 portion of the season in winning style. Our season ATS record stands at 106-88-5. Of that, our locks are 3-2-1. We know it is not where we need to be, but we are winning each night. 7 Games on the docket tonight. This is what we like:
LOCKS
Thunder @ Nets +6: The Nets are making a habit of getting blown out this year. Of their 28 losses, only 9 have been by fewer than 10 points. They are a joke of a team right now. The Thunder will win their third straight. Take the Thunder and give the points.
PICKS
Bucks @ Bobcats -4.5: Bobcats are a completely different team at home (24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games) and they love Monday night games (9-2 ATS in their last 11). However, we still aren’t buying that they are a good team. Brandon Jennings has come down to reality as of late, but we like them to cover. They match-up well with the Bobcats. Take the Bucks and the points.
Wizards @ Grizzlies -5.5: We love the Wizards’ D in this game. We think they match-up well against the Grizzlies. Don’t be surprised in Washington wins outright. Take the Wizards and the points.
Lakers @ Suns +1: The Lakers have dominated this match-up as of late and look to build some momentum after their overtime win against the Kings. The Lakers are exactly what the Suns hate-a large and athletic team that plays well together. That is the recipe for beating the Suns. The Suns are off one of their worse performances of the season last time out. Even without Artest, the Lakers will still get the best of them. Take the Lakers and give the point.
Nuggets @ Kings +2: The Nuggets have been terrible since Chauncey Billups injured his groin. However, the Kings will probably be without Tyreke Evans and Sean May tonight. Those are bigger losses. Take the Nuggets and give the points.
76ers @ Trail Blazers -6: The 76ers have dominated this match-up as of late and they should get Iverson back tonight. The Blazers have been hot-covering in their last 4 games. We don’t think it will be 5 straight tonight. Take the 76ers and the points.
Celtics @ Warriors +6: The Celtics are one of the best road teams in the league, but they have not done well when visiting the Warriors. Still, they play outstanding D. The Warriors are hot off their pounding of a Suns team that played no D whatsoever. Tonight will be different. They will get all the D they can handle tonight. Take the Celtics and give the points.
Road team sweep for us tonight. That hasn’t happened before, but we are sticking with our system.
Good Luck,
Runny & Flash
2009-2010 Winning Bowl Picks: We pick winners for the rest of the bowl season!
We are sitting here a pissed off 3-7 in this very short bowl season. There are still 24 games to go and we are extremely ticked off. This is a big time repeat of last year when we sucked it in the early games and then scrappy Jonesed it for the rest of the season barely making a living. Our analysis is no longer worth writing and we are going to break down the remaining games in one of three ways:
1) RPJ special sauce - These are our magic special sauce picks. Our secret bread and butter. The way we pick these are proprietary and we do not share how we pick them. You won’t give a damn anyways because our bowl picks have been terrible. Your best bet is to pick against us. These picks are now 2-4 on the season.
2) Statistical picks - We base these picks purely on math. When one team is statistically better in every single category we track, we pick that team to win the game. So far this type of pick is 0-1 on the season with Nevada blow it for us.
3) The Defense running pick - This is when we pick the underdog to cover when that underdog gives up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and the favorite does not. These picks win outright 70% of the time on a historical basis. On the season these picks are 1-1, with Central Florida losing and UNC covering.
We will probably come at you with some detailed analysis on some of the bigger games but for now we will show you our picks and the lines we took them. On with the Picks…..
Monday December 28, 2009
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M versus Georgia (-7) - RPJ Pick takes Texas A&M to cover! (loss 3-8)
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Eagle Bank Bowl: UCLA (-3.5) versus Temple - RPJ Pick takes UCLA to win and cover (Win 4-8)
Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin versus Miami (-3.5) - Defense Run pick selects Wisconsin to cover! (Win 5-8)
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green (-1) versus Idaho - RPJ pick takes Bowling Green to win and cover! (Loss 5-9)
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska versus Arizona (-1) - Defense Run pick selects Nebraska to cover! (Win 6-9)
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force versus Houston (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes Houston to win and cover! (Loss 6-10)
Sun Bowl: Stanford versus Oklahoma (-10) - RPJ pick takes Stanford to cover! (Win 7-10)
Texas Bowl: Navy versus Missouri (-6.5) - RPJ pick takes Missouri to win and cover! (Loss 7-11)
Insight Bowl: Iowa State versus Minnesota (-2.5) - RPJ pick takes Iowa State to cover! (Win 8-11)
Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Tennessee versus Virginia Tech (-5) - RPJ pick takes Va. Tech to win and cover! (Win 9-11)
Friday January 1, 2010
Outback Bowl: Northwestern versus Auburn (-7) - RPJ pick takes Northwestern to cover! (Win 10-11)
Gator Bowl: Florida State versus West Virginia (-2.5) - RPJ takes WVU to win and cover! (Loss 10-12)
Capital One Bowl: LSU versus Penn State (+2) - Stat pick takes Penn St. to win and cover! (Win 11-12)
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-4) versus Ohio State - Defense run pick takes Ohio St. to cover! (Win 12-12)
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati versus Florida (-12.5) - Stat pick takes Florida to win and cover! (Win 13-12)
Saturday, January 2, 2010
International Bowl: Northern Illinois versus South Florida (-7) - RPJ pick takes N. Illinois to cover! (Loss 13-13)
Papa Johns Bowl: UCONN versus South Carolina (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes UCONN to cover! (14-13)
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss (-3) versus Oklahoma State - Defense Run pick takes Ok. St. to cover! (loss 14-14)
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-7.5) versus East Carolina - RPJ pick takes Arkansas to win and cover! (Loss 14-15)
Alamo Bowl: Michigan State versus Texas Tech (-8) - RPJ takes Texas Tech to win and cover! (Win 15-15)
Monday January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State versus TCU (-7) - Stat pick takes TCU to win and cover!
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Orange Bowl: Iowa versus Georgia Tech (-3.5) - RPJ takes Georgia Tech to win and cover!
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
GMAC Bowl: Troy versus Central Michigan (-3.5) - Stat pick takes C. Michigan to win and cover!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
BCS National Championship Game: Texas versus Alabama (-4) - RPJ takes Texas to cover!
December 26, 2009 Winning Bowl Game Predictions: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Meineke Car Care Bowl and Emerald Bowl
We are becoming one of the best indicators of this NCAA football bowl season. We are now 1-5. Of the 5 we lost, we did not even have the winner of the game correct. Disaster city but we will press on. Just bet the opposite of what we are saying.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (-3) versus Marshall Thundering Herd - This is hands down one of the worst named bowls of all time. This is the tale of two ATS teams right now. Ohio is on a bit of a hot streak, covering in 4 straight games. Marshall has lost three in a row against the spread and has lost 3 out of 4 games straight up. Marhsall’s skid prompted their coach to high tale it out of town and in steps new coach, Doc Holliday. We love the name Doc Holliday but we do not see Marshall showing up to play an inspired ball game. Ohio has really played well down the stretch. They won at Ball State and Buffalo and then beat Northern Illinois and Temple at home. They did lose by 10 to Central Michigan and Dan LeFevour their last time out but they pulled the cover and Dan LeFevour is the man so that was fine with us. We are going to ride the hot team. We are betting on Ohio to win and cover!
Ohio Bobcats
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
- Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
- Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC.
- Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
- Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.
- Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Eagles are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
- Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Trojans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Trojans are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.
- Trojans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Week 16 NFL Winning Picks: Playoff Implications All Around with lucky #7!
Crazy week in NFL. RPJ was a winner, the underdog strategy was a winner but we are sad to say we were knocked out of the winner’s bracket of our knockout pool. We now get lumped into the second chance grouping but will not win major coinage. Very sad. Crazy lines this week. Most of them seem to be 7 points or 14 points and there are a ton of 7-7 teams competing for a playoff spot. Hopefully 7 is our lucky number this week!
RPJ Betting $yndicate Picks - We have been hot lately and we credit the list format. The more analysis we give you the more we lose so now we are relegated to simply telling you what we are going to bet. Two weeks ago we were 8-4 and this past week we were 4-3-1. On the season, RPJ is now 52-43-1. So here is the list of the week:
Buffalo at Atlanta (-9) - We are betting the Falcons to win and cover!
Kansas City at Cincinnati (-14) - We are betting the Bengals to win and cover!
Seattle at Green Bay (-14) - We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!
Houston at Miami (-3) - We are betting Miami to win and cover!
Carolina at NY Giants (-7) - We are betting the Giants to win and cover!
NY Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5) - We are betting the NY Jets to pull the cover!
Denver at Philadelphia (-7) - We are betting Philly to win and cover!
Dallas at Washington (+7) - We are betting Dallas to win and cover!
Minnesota at Chicago (+7) - We are betting the Vikings to win and cover!
The Underdog Strategy - Every time we feel like writing this strategy off, it goes nuts on us. Last week, underdogs were 11-4-1 in the NFL. That is a serious payday. On the season, this strategy is now 117-103-3. It seems to us that when the favorites go on a big run, the following week is a HUGE opportunity to bet the underdogs. Vegas tends to get carried away with their lines. We think this has validity. Underdogs in bold
San Diego (+3) at Tennessee
Buffalo (+9) at Atlanta
Kansas City (+14) at Cincinnati
Oakland (+3) at Cleveland
Seattle (+14) at Green Bay
Houston (+3) at Miami
Carolina (+7) at NY Giants
Jacksonville (+8) at New England
Tampa Bay (+14) at New Orleans
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
St. Louis (+14) at Arizona
Detroit (+12) at San Francisco
NY Jets at (+5.5) Indiananpolis
Denver (+7) at Philadelphia
Dallas at Washington (+7)
Minnesota at Chicago (+7)
Knockout Pool Strategy - It was a very sad day in RPJ Land last week. Effing Raiders dashed our HUGE payout in the knockout pool. Effing Raiders and their last minute come from behind win against the freakin Denver Broncos, 14 point favorite Denver Broncos, with Jamarcus, 10th string, Russell engineering the come from behind win. Yes we are bitter. Our knockout pool has a second bracket for the losers to keep playing but the payout sucks because it is chopped between all remaining losers when the winner’s bracket ends. Probably end up with $50 even if we win and that blows. So based on this we are still picking.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)
Week 16: Arizona Cardinals
