Bob Stoops
2009 BCS NCAA Football Championship Game Pick: Florida versus Oklahoma
Well we are sad to see the close of the college football season on two fronts. 1) we do not have any more games to bet until August and 2) we know this was a painful year and we likely cost you money. We bankrupted ourselves a few times this year and kept fighting and clawing our way back. Unfortunately for us we dug ourselves such a big hole we could not climb out. We still have the NFL playoffs to leave a lasting mark but NCAA football 2008-2009 season will go down as a painful one. Thank you for all of your support and feedback. OUr records for this bowl season are:
RPJ = 5-11
RPJ Math = 14-15
Flash Flash = 2-2
Runny Pelvis = 9-6
Oklahoma versus Florida (-4 and OVER/UNDER 70): This is the grand daddy of them all. There is a lot of complaining this year that there might be a split AP and BCS title winner; that USC and Utah deserve a piece of the pie; the story lines are out there. Fact of the matter is that regardless of who played already, this game is for the BCS national title. The system is flawed and we all have to deal with it. We are going to throw tons of info at you so you can make the best decision for you.
ATS Numbers
Florida Gators
- Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Gators are 15-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
- Gators are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
- Gators are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Gators are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite.
- ver is 6-0 in Gators last 6 games in January.
- Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 bowl games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 bowl games.
- Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Gators last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 5-1 in Gators last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 15-3 in Gators last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 6-2 in Gators last 8 non-conference games.
- Over is 20-7 in Gators last 27 games on grass.
- Over is 19-7 in Gators last 26 games overall.
Oklahoma Sooners
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
- Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Sooners are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC.
- Over is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-0 in Sooners last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 12-1 in Sooners last 13 games overall.
- Over is 11-1 in Sooners last 12 games following a S.U. win.
- Over is 10-1 in Sooners last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Sooners last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 10-2 in Sooners last 12 non-conference games.
- Over is 8-2 in Sooners last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 neutral site games.
- Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 vs. SEC.
Line moves
This line stayed around +3 through most of December, but it’s been on the move leading up to game time. Most sportsbooks have the Gators favored by four points and some shops have the line as high +4.5. The total has moved down a point to a point and a half depending on the book.
Weather
Players couldn’t ask for better conditions for Thursday’s game according to early weather reports. Forecasters are predicting temperatures in the mid-60’s at game time while winds will be slight at just 8 mph. There is only a 10 percent chance of rain.
Conference exposure
There has been a lot of talk about the Big 12 getting “exposed” this bowl season and the ATS records suggest that’s true. The Big 12 is 2-4 against the number in bowl games so far while the SEC is 5-1.
Bettors best friends
Gator and Sooners bettors come into Jan. 8 with heavy pockets. Both teams went 10-2 ATS (against the spread) and both were perfect on the road at a combined 9-0 ATS.
On the total side of things, the over went 11-1 in Oklahoma games this year and 8-4 in Gators games.
Quick hits
Oklahoma ranks No. 1 and Florida ranks No. 2 in turnover margin this year.
Neither team seems likely to give the ball away much. Oklahoma committed nine turnovers all season, fewest in FBS, while Florida had 11 to tie for the second-fewest.
The Sooners have lost four BCS bowl games in the past five seasons. Stoops is hoping to correct the problem by bringing his team to Miami one day later and imposing earlier curfews than in years past.
Florida returns to the BCS bowl scene after a one-year absence. The Gators won the BCS national championship two years ago in a convincing win over Ohio State.
Oklahoma ranked sixth in kickoff returns this year; Florida ranked 44th.
Florida ranked seventh in punt returns; Oklahoma ranked 70th.
The Sooners allowed the third-fewest sacks in the nation.
RPJ is taking Florida to win and cover and here is why: Have you been watching this bowl season? The media blew everything out of proportion once again. Pac-10 dominated their bowls, not losing once and the Pac-10 was supposed to be terrible. Big 12 South was embarasing with losses to Oregon and Ole Miss and Texas looking terrible against a horrible Ohio State team. This season all goes back to what we thought at the beginning of the season…USC and Florida are the two best teams in the country. With that being said, only Florida gets the chance to play for the title. Urban Meyer is a winner. Tim Tebow is a winner. Percy Harvin is a winner. Florida is fast as hell. I think 12 guys on their team run the 40 in under 4.4 seconds. One guy that runs a 4.32 40 is the 6th fastest on the team. The Gators have speed on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma is a terrible bowl team under Bob Stoops. Terrible bowl losses to USC and LSU in title games and Boise State and West Virginia in BCS games….. What is different? NOTHING!!!!! Same ole Bob Stoops. Throw in the fact that DeMarco Murray is out of this game and we like Florida even more. Big 12 defenses are not good and Oklahoma gave up 24.5 points per game and 359.1 yards per game. We are learning that it is not because the Big 12 has incredible offenses, it is because they have bad defenses. Anybody can score on a Big 12 team nowadays.
RPJ Math does not show any real advantage. Favors Oklahoma by tenths of 1 percent.
RPJ Pic of the day!
Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis
Colin Cowherd’s Wheel of Genius NCAA Football Picks: Bowl Edition
The HERD represented this year. He picked winners at a rate of 61% (41-26-1) and that is damn good. Well the Herd likes to move things forward every few years so this is his last WHEEL OF GENIUS post ever! Yup, he is retiring the Wheel and coming back next year with a new system. We will miss the wheel, especially how good he was this year, but we will look forward to his next endeavour. Here are The Herd’s bowl picks in his words:
Oklahoma versus Florida (-3) - Both teams will have 6 weeks off and this means the offenses will be rusty. This favors Florida because they have a much better defense. Another negative is if Bradford wins the Heisman. The Heisman media circus will take Bradford away from practice and he will gain weight, just like Tebow did last year. The coaches get an A, the QBs get an A. Urban Meyer is money in big games and Stoops is just ehhhh. Score prediction = Florida 37 Oklahoma 30. Take Florida to win and cover!
Texas versus Ohio State (+9.5) - Big 12 has remarkable QBs and spread offenses and this makes the defenses look worse than they really are. Texas has a good defense that is just worn out from running the Big 12 gauntlet. Texas has a huge Qb advantage and McCoy has one of the greatest minds in NCAA football. I spke to a coach and he said McCoy knows the entire Texas playbook and can learn 30% more offense just for Ohio State. Ohio State’s QB can barely learn a basic offsense. This is a huge advantage. Big 12 offense versus Big 10 offense is no contest. Score prediction = Texas 34 Ohio State 20. Texas wins and covers!
Oregon versus Oklahoma State (-3.5) - This should be a home game for Oregon. Oregon averages 503 yards of offense per game and that includes a rotating crop of QBs and a game against USC. When the Ducks score over 20 points they win more than 80% of the time. When the Ducks O-coordinator has two weeks to prepare for a team, the Ducks are almost undefeated. Over the last few weeks Oregon has been the best rushing team in the country. Score prediction = Oregon 52 Oklahoma State 44. Upset special. Take the Ducks to win and cover!
USC versus Penn State (+9.5) - Big 10 teams do not play well out West. This will be a home game for USC. These teams are mirror images of each other on offense and rank really close in most offense stats. The USC offense has actually played worse since the Ohio State game and is not improving or playing well. Joe McKnight is falling out of favor with the coaches. Sarkisian is leaving the team and may or may not be taking coaches with him. There are a lot of distractions going on at USC right now. Score prediction - USC 28 Penn State 20. Take Penn State to cover!
The Bowl lock of the Year
Michigan State versus Georgia (-7) - Michigan State is one of the worst teams in the country when the score under 20 points. Something like 4-22. This will be a road game for Michigan State cause the UGA fans will travel. Georgia has a good defense, a great QB and Michigan State is mediocre on offense within the Big 10. Score prediction = Georgia 31 Michigan State 17. Take Georgia to win and cover!