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Donovan McNabb

NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions: 4 Games, 4 Stories, 4 Toes and 4 Winners!

We love the NFL playoffs. We crushed them last season and we are taking our winning regular season record into the postseason. We are going to pick all 4 games for you and the trends are easy to spot. You do not stink it up the week before the playoffs against the same opponent and come out strong and you do not beat Tom Brady at home. We are mingling our picks with a Wild Card playoff salute to the Toe of the Camel. On with the picks…

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.

NY Jets

• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

• Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Bengals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bengals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Bengals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
• Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite.
• Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?

Eagles

• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.

• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC East.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in January.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
• Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.

Ravens

• Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

• Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.
• Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Patriots are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
• Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• Patriots are 0-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in January.

Head-to-Head

• Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Enjoy the picks!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

Week 5 Free NFL Picks: The Cream Always Rises!!!

On the season RPJ $yndicate is 12-11. Nice to have a winning record but we need to stretch it out some. We have correctly picked four winners for you knockout pool fans. The underdog strategy (betting all underdogs every week) is not doing so well and we will stop tracking it if it brings in another bad weekend. This strategy is 26-35-1. We are going to break this down into a couple of categories. This first category is the Obvious category and there are a lot of them this week. The second category is the Home Dog category and then we will have a third category just because we are running out of idea.

Obvious Games of the Week: These games are easy to pick. The best teams are playing some of the worst teams and we plan on capitalizing on it. To top it off, we do not think any analysis is necessary. Sorry folks but these games are that easy.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-14.5) - We are taking the Eagles to win and cover.

Oakland at NY Giants (-15) - We are taking the Giants to win and cover.

Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis - We are taking Favre and the Vikes to win and cover.

The Home Dog Strategy: Some of the other games we love to bet on are home dogs when we actually think the home team has a better than 65% chance of winning the game outright.

NY Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2) - A couple of things need to be pointed out here. First, the Mark Sanchez project is slowly going down hill. Just check out his numbers from his last three games. Not pretty. The Saints won the game last week because of Sanchez. Second, the Dolphins were underdogs last week and destroyed the Bills. We think the Jets are worse than people think and Sanchez is coming back to reality. On the flip side, even with Pennington out, the Fins are not as bad as people think. We think this is the type of game, home game, national spot light, division rivalry. All signs point to the Fins for us and they are the UNDERDOG. Another thing to think about, 92% of the money is on the Jets, the line opened at Jets -1 and is now Jets -2. Vegas is taking all the action and encouraging all of the to go to the Jets. Do not do it!!! We are betting the Dolphins to cover in this game!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
• Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
• Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

Just Because Game - These are simply the games we like this week.

• Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Browns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Buffalo

• Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
• Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Underdog Strategy - Just to repeat, all we do here is track what would happen if we bet every single underdog. No thought process just bet on every underdog. In the past, this strategy sometimes has paid off very well. This season not so much. 26-35-1 on the season. Underdogs in Bold.

Bengals (+9) at Ravens

Cleveland (+6) at Buffalo

Washington (+4) at Carolina

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10.5)

Dallas at Kansas City (+9)

Oakland (+15) at NY Giants

Tampa Bay (+14.5) at Philadelphia

Minnesota at St. Louis (+10)

Atlanta (+2.5) at San Francisco

Houston (+5.5) at Arizona

New England at Denver (+3)

Jacksonville (+1) at Seattle

Colts at Titans (+3.5)

NY Jets at Miami (+2)

Knockout Pool Pick: We are 4-0 and moving to 5-0 after this weekend. Tons of options this week and we would normally have taken the Giants but we will save them for down the road and we do not know what Eli’s backup QB can do. We know what Donovan’s backup can do and Kolb can easily beat the Bucs.

Week 1: New Orleans

Week 2: Washington

Week 3: Baltimore

Week 4: Chicago

Week 5: Philadelphia

Week 2: Free NFL Winning Picks and Jessica Simpson has had a bad year!

Based on our three systems this is how we fared last week. RPJ went into the Monday Night Football games at 2-2 and then lost the Pats and Chargers so we finished up at 2-4. The “Bet the Underdog Only Strategy” was 7-8-1. We won our New Orleans knockout week 1 knockout pick so we get to pick in Week 2. There will be a one prominent theme this week and next week and that is the “We can not play a home game in Week 2 that sets us up to be 0-2 after this weekend or 0-3 next weekend” There is one really desperate team this week and we will get to that in RPJ’s picks. There are such great plot lines in the NFL right now; we are loving it. How is Donovan McNabb physically and mentally, Are the Pats really back with Brady, how bad a year is Jessica Simpson having as a result of affiliating herself with Tony Romo, and on and on…..

Sunday, September 20, 2009

RPJ $yndicate Picks - Last week we were 2-4 after getting crushed (0-2) on Monday Night football.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+1) - Well we hate betting against home dogs but this is a rare case. Donovan McNabb is not going to play. We can read through Andy Reid’s gimmicky news confereces. McNabb is soft and will never gut it out this early in the season. That leaves Kevin Kolb, who has shown absolutely nothing, and Jeff Garcia, who is on two days worth of practice. It does look like the Eags defense has not dropped off with the horrible death of Jim Johnson but will that be enough. NO! We just do not think the Eagles will score enough to keep up with the Saints because the Saints will get their points. With only a one point line we are happy to go with Brees & Co. The ATS numbers are a bit scary and very against the Saints but have faith. We are betting the Saints to win and Cover!!!

New Orleans

• Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
• Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog.
• Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Head-to-Head

• Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

New England at NY Jets (+3.5) - This is a terrifying game. The line opened up Pats -4.5 and has been moved down to Pats -3.5 even though 65% of the money is on the Pats. We always express concern with these reverse logic situations cause Vegas knows. Here are the story lines for this game as we see them. 1) Mark Sanchez was awesome in Week 1 and this is his first home game. Since we are USC homers, we know Sanchez is emotionally wound up and we expect him to start slow and make bad decisions right out of the gate. 2) Jets are talking smack. Never ever talk smack to the Pats. They take it personally and always respond with their best effort. 3) Jets defense looked great against Houston but this is Brady and the Pats. They know how to play it. 4) Pats D will play better than last week and look to put Sanchez off his game early. We think too many of these factors lead to a solid 7-10 point Pats win. We are betting the Patriots to win and cover!! Yes Wizard we are taking the Pats again. Guess your Jets reverse RPJ bet is a lock of the year!

New England

• Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 2.
• Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a road favorite.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Patriots are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.
• Patriots are 45-21-3 ATS in their last 69 games on grass.
• Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. AFC East.
• Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

This sign is directed at you Mr. Tom Brady!!!

• Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 2.
• Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
• Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Head-to-Head

• Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New York.
• Patriots are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
• Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
• Road team is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.

At least you are hitting this chick Mark cause you are in for a long day!

Arizona at Jacksonville (-3) - We call this the Arizona can not travel East and win or play well game. Minus the Jake Delhomme freak show in the playoffs last year this is what we saw last year: at Washington for a 24-17 loss; at NY Jets for a 56-35 loss; at Carolina for a 27-23 loss; at St. Louis for a 34-13 WIN; at Philly for a 48-20 loss and at NEw England for a 47-7 loss. Get the picture. Tie this in with a Super Bowl hangover and KACHING!!!! We are betting the Jags to win and cover!!!

Arizona

• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Cardinals are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

• Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jaguars are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jaguars are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Pittsburgh at Chicago (+3) - This is the must win, desperation game we were talking about. Throw in the fact that the line opened at Bears +3 and 95% of the money is on the Steelers and we are chomping at the bit to get in on this action. Here is what we know. 1) The Steelers can not run the ball a lick and will definitely have a tough time against the Bears 2) No Troy Palamaulo 3) The Bears almost won the game last week against the Pack, on the road, without Urlacher and with Cutler throwing 4 INTs 4) Cutler is not as bad as everybody says 5) Pack showed that you can disrupt the BEars offense by taking Olsen and Forte out of the game. The Bears know they need to make adjustments and slimmed things down this week for Cutler and the young WRs. When we look at all of this we think it screams take Chicago to win and we get 3 points. We are betting the Bears to cover!!!

• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Steelers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Steelers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Steelers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 2.
• Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
• Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Bears

• Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 2.
• Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
• Bears are 4-9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bears are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
• Bears are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Bears are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Hey Jay!!! We can not afford another choke job this week!

NY Giants at Dallas (-3) - This is definitely the Jessica Simpson had a bad week game. Not sure if you caught it but a wild coyote attacked Simpson’s dog, killed it and ate it in front of her. Check this out: Jessica Simpson’s Dog Snatched by Coyote. Not sure what to make of the Cowboys yet. They did not win impressively against Tampa Bay last week even though the end results and stats look good. Hard to explain but you had to watch the game. Romo hurt his ankle. Emotions will be high for the first regular season game in the new stadium. On the flip side, the Giants stormed out of the gate and then got lazy and dropped a lot of passes. However, the Giants defense is still sick, especially on the D-line where they rotated in 8 different players. This is going to be a close to the vest game. Both teams are not good ATS against the NFC East. Cowboys might have the slight edge playing at home but with a 3 point line, Vegas is telling us it values these teams equally. With a gimpy Romo plus the points, we are leaning NY. We are betting the NY Giants to cover!!!

NY Giants

• Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
• Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
• Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 2.
• Giants are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games.
• Giants are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win.
• Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Giants are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 vs. NFC.
• Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC East.

• Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Cowboys are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 2.
• Cowboys are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC East.

Underdog Strategy - Just to recap this strategy, we are literally tracking what would happen if you bet on every underdog every week. Last week this strategy was 7-8-1. All of the lines are below and the teams in bold are the underdog.

Carolina at Atlanta (-6.5)

St. Louis at Washington (-10)

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)

New Orleans at Philadelphia (+1)

New England at NY Jets (+3.5)

Oakland at Kansas City (-3)

Arizona at Jacksonville (-3)

Cincy at Green Bay (-9.5)

Minnesota at Detroit (+10)

Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-5)

Seattle at San Fran (-1)

Pittsburgh at Chicago (+3)

Cleveland at Denver (-3)

Baltimore at San Diego (-3)

NY Giants at Dallas (-3)

Indy at Miami (+3)

Knockout Pool Pick - Last week we went with New Orleans and were rewarded. This week we are coming back with Washington at home against the Rams. It took awhile for the Skins to get going last week but they showed some life in the second half. We expect a much better showing on the offensive side against the Rams and we know their D is solid.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

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