Miami Dolphins
Week 17 Winning NFL Picks: The End of the Road!
RPJ Betting $yndicate - We threw in a loser last week and were 4-5 on the weekend. Our record now stands at 56-48-1. Nothing to get too excited about but it is a winning record. We are not going to pick games for Week 17. Who knows what kind of effort and players you will get this week. Better to avoid it and recoup for the playoffs next week.
Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:
Indy +8 at Buffalo
Saints +7 at Panthers
Jags +1.5 at Browns
Bears at Lions +3
Pats +7 at Texans
Steelers at Dolphins +3
Giants +9 at Vikes
49ers at Rams +8
Falcons at Bucs +1.5
Packers +3 at Cards
Chiefs +10 at Broncos
Ravens at Raiders +10.5
Skins +3 at Chargers
Titans at Seahawks +6
Eagles +3 at Cowboys
Bengals +9.5 at Jets
Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)
Week 16: Arizona Cardinals
Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets
Week 15 NFL Winning Picks: We will make you more money than Tiger Woods paid his Mistresses!!! And that is a lot!
RPJ Betting $yndicate - We predicted the exact truth once again, we lost our first game of the week. Jags almost had it but did not come through in the end. Kudos to Peyton & Co. We are now 48-40 on the season. We have a ton of games for you once again. Last week we simply listed them out and went 8-4 so we are not going to mess with what works. If you want any detailed insight, feel free to use our matchup tool on our website or contact us directly via email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com or sign up for our Facebook and/or Twitter feeds (top right of this website) and get in touch with us that way. On with the picks:
Not anymore Tiger!!!
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-11) - We like the Ravens to win and cover
New England (-7) at Buffalo Bills - We like the Patriots to win and cover
Arizona Cardinals (-13) at Detroit Lions - we like the Lions to pull the cover
Atlanta Falcons at NY Jets (-6) - We like the Jets to win and cover
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) - We like the Eagles to win and cover
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14) - We like the Broncos to win and cover
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-7) - We like the Bengals to cover
Underdog Strategy - Underdog strategy was 7-9 last week and is now 106-99-2 on the season. Team in bold is the underdog.
Dallas Cowboys (+8) New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) - Already have one underdog loser.
Chicago Bears (+11) at Baltimore Ravens
New England at Buffalo Bills (+7)
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13)
Cleveland Browns (+2) at Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons (+6) at NY Jets
San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+12.5)
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Oakland Raiders (+14) at Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers (+2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+9)
NY Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)
Rich Mistress Jamie Jungers
Knockout Pool Strategy - Our knockout pool is down to 11 people and we have a bad feeling all 11 are going to take our pick this week. For us, it is a huge no brainer to bet on the Denver Broncos to beat the bag out of the Raiders at home. We would not be surprised if this game was over in the first 5 minutes.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
Week 15: Denver Broncos
NFL Week 14 Winning Picks - Record number of winning picks!!!!
RPJ Betting $yndicate - It was nice of the Browns to rain on our Thursday parade but we are facing a colliding of the gambling forces this weekend. We love a ton of games. Since the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday, RPJ dropped to 40-35 on the season. Since we are facing so many different games this week, we are going to simply list the games that we like. When we did this in the NCAA we slayed it so hopefully it translates over to some nice Ws for RPJ and for you.
New Orleans (-10.5) at Atlanta - We are taking New Orleans to win and cover
Detroit at Baltimore (-13.5) - We are taking Baltimore to win and cover
Green Bay (-3) at Chicago - We are taking Green Bay to win and cover
Seattle at Houston (-6) - We are taking Houston to win and cover
Denver (-7) at Indianapolis - We are taking Denver to cover
Buffalo at Kansas City (pick em) - We are taking Kansas City to win and cover
Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5) - We are taking the Vikings to win and cover
NY Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay - We are taking NY Jets to win and cover
St. Louis at Tennessee (-13) - We are taking Tennessee to win and cover
Washington (-1) at Oakland - We are taking Washington to win and cover
San Diego at Dallas (-3) - We are taking Dallas to win and cover
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1) - We are taking the Eagles to cover
Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5) - Already have an underdog winner!!
New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)
Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore
Green Bay at Chicago (+3)
Seattle (+6) at Houston
Denver (+7) at Indianapolis
Miami (+3) at Jacksonville
Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
Carolina (+13.5) at New England
NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)
St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee
Washington at Oakland (+1)
San Diego (+3) at Dallas
Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants
Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)
Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
NFL Week 14 Winning Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Unleash the Hell!
RPJ $yndicate Picks - These are our straight picks. Only one game tonight and we will be back later in the week with the rest of our weekend picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns - Accuscore is calling for a Steelers 23-13 win tonight. We like how they are thinking but we are not sure the Browns will be able to put up 13 points tonight in the snow. After Mike Tomlin’s now famous unleash hell comments the Steelers responded with a freakish loss at home to the Raiders. If you watched that game you know that the football gods screwed with the Steelers just like the god did when the Raiders beat the Bengals by freak plays. We do think the Steelers will unleash hell and we would not be surprised to see them win out. Big Ben is back, Mendenhall looks good, Holmes and Wallace will fill in just fine for a banged up Hines Ward tonight. Remember what this game is, the defending Super Bowl champs are playing the Browns. The 1-11 Browns. The Brady Quinn led Browns and we all know that no good QBs come out of Notre Dame since Joe Montana. Notre Dame’s season may be over but we will still find ways to rip them. Cleveland’s D is atrocious. They give up twice the rushing yards that Pittsburgh does and they gave up 26 points a game, which is 4th worst in the league. We think Pittsburgh does unleash hell tonight, even in the snow. We are betting Pittsburgh to win and cover!!
Pittsburgh
- Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 14.
- Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 14.
- Browns are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Browns are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
- Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
- Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
- Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)
New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)
Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore
Green Bay at Chicago (+3)
Seattle (+6) at Houston
Denver (+7) at Indianapolis
Miami (+3) at Jacksonville
Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
Carolina (+13.5) at New England
NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)
St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee
Washington at Oakland (+1)
San Diego (+3) at Dallas
Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants
Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)
We love the Tiger Woods Ho Patrol: This is another one that worked in porn: Miss Holly Sampson
Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Tennessee Titans
NFL Week 13 Free Winning Picks: Straight Cash Homey!!!
RPJ $yndicate Picks - After going 5-4 last week, we are now 37-32 on the season. We still have a few weeks to show some improvement and all this really shows is if you take our our 5-0 week we are simply 500 on the season. We went on a late season surge with our NCAA picks and we plan on doing the same here.
Sunday December 6, 2009
Philadelphia (-5) at Atlanta - What is the over/under on Michael Vick references in this game. Probably enough to make us vomit in our mouths. This game is the culmination of horrible injuries for the Falcons. No Matt Ryan, if he plays Michael Turner will not be effective and starting guard Harvey Dahl went out last week. Yes, the Falcons won the game but they only rushed for 75 yards against the #32 rushing defense at the time. The Eagles are always capable of putting a beat down on somebody. We know the Eags are fighting their own injuries (Westbrook, their secondary and D Jax) but the Eagles have been here before. When they need somebody to step up, they step up. Grab Avant this week if you need a WR in fantasy football. So coming in to this game knowing Atlanta is banged up on offense, they really do not want to face the Eagles defense, which is a lot better than Atlanta’s. We also love the fact that the Falcons have the second worst defensive 3rd down conversion percentage. They let teams convert 3rd downs 47% of the time. That is horrific. We are betting the Eagles to win and cover big!
Philadelphia
- Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 13.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) - Big Ben back, Raiders still suck. Final score prediction 35-3. NEXT!!!
The Saints made me their Bitch!!!
New England at Miami (+4) - This is a bizarre game on paper because when we look at the stats we look at and see one team ahead in the relevant stats by a wide margin we call that a clean sweep game, a no brainer! In this game, Miami is that team. Just to highlight a couple of them: Miami runs for more than 40 yards more per game, 6/10ths more per rush, converts offensive third downs 4 percentage points better and gives up less rushing yards, yards per rush and 3rd down conversions on defense. What does this all mean? It means Miami is the perfect antithesis of the Pats and should be able to control the clock and keep this game close. That is what we are banking on. We are betting the Dolphins to cover!
New England
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss.
- Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
- Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.
- Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC East.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Vikings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 13.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
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Baltimore at Green Bay (-3) - We did not expect this but Green Bay, like we explained for Miami, is another clean sweep team. They look better statistically in all the right places against the Ravens. We are not worried about Green Bay’s line because the Ravens only have 21 sacks on the season and have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. This is a winnable game for the Pack and we expect Aaron Rodgers to remain hot. We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!!!
Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy bombed last week to end what was one hell of a tear. On the season this strategy is now 89-84-2. Pretty interesting that all you have to do is bet every underdog and you come out with a winning record. Underdogs in bold:
NY Jets at Buffalo (+3.5) - Bills lose
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5)
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Carolina
St. Louis (+9.5) at Chicago
Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis
Houston at Jacksonville - No action due to pick em
Denver at Kansas City (+5)
Oakland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh
New Orleans at Washington (+9.5)
New England at Miami (+4)
San Diego at Cleveland (+13.5)
Dallas at NY Giants (+2.5)
San Francisco at Seattle - No action due to pick em
Minnesota at Arizona (+3)
Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay
Knockout Pool - We are still rocking along here. Our knockout pool is down to 17 people. Hopefully you are still alive in yours. We caught some guff this week from some of you knockout pool players, saying our strategy is dumb and we need to chart out our picks. Well we stick our nose up at you. Our strategy is simple, Take the opening lines of the week and pick the home team with the highest line. So for you naysayers, we are still here winning and guess what? We get to play the Colts this week!
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: Indianapolis Colts
Free NFL Week 12 Picks: The Weekend Edition of Winning $$$$
After going 2-1 on Thanksgiving we are now 34-29 on the season. Giants had to ruin our potential for an unblemished record on Turkey Day. We are looking to build on our winning week with a couple of picks this weekend. Coming at you with subliminal messages this week. We have our normal pics of girls but have sprinkled the pics with some “money” shots!
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills - We are going against our Vegas intuition on this one. The line opened at Dolphins -3.5 and has bounced between -3.5 and -3. The problem is, the majority of the money is on Miami and that means Vegas is saying they are comfortable with all of this money on the Dolphins because they think the Bills will come through for their books. Also, when you see that the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo you start to understand why Vegas is comfortable with the action. Vegas thinks that the cold weather and a warm team traveling to play cold team spells disaster. Well we have faith in the Parcells run team to be ready to play in Buffalo. Dolphins won easily last year in December in Buffalo. Buffalo is having trouble scoring, has an interim coach, no real QB and no team personality. Dolphins come ready to play every game and play punishing style of offense that is a bitch to prepare for. If we lose this bet we will not doubt our Vegas intuition again and we understand if you go against us on this one. We are betting Miami to win and cover!
Miami
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
- Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bills are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
- Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
- Bills are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
- Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Dolphins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo.
- Redskins are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Redskins are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
- Redskins are 4-11-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
- Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Redskins are 4-13-4 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Redskins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 12.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
- Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Seahawks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rams are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a S.U. loss.
- Rams are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Rams are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games.
- Rams are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Rams are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog.
- Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West.
- Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) - Two opposites going on right here and we think we know these teams well with our Midwest connections. Vikes have won three in a row and covered three in a row and never really had a tough game. Bears have lost three in a row, not covered three in a row and the real Jay Cutler has shown himself. Josh McDaniels and Co. out in Denver do not look like such idiots now do they? We expect the Bears D to not show up, Cutler to throw picks at bad times and Favre to lead an impressive, efficient offense to victory. Vikings win and cover!
Chicago Bears
- Bears are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.
- Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Bears are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Bears are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.
- Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Bears are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
- Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
Monday, November 30 , 2009
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) - This is definitely the game of the week and we are pumped up for it. Last week, Flash hit up the Jets/Pats game in Masshole land and walked away with a stomach bug, literally Flash puked all night and on the plane (the smell was awesome) and a sense that New England, even in the win, is not that impressive. The Pats just have too much dependence on a few guys on offense and if the Jets had a non-emotional QB they could have had a chance. The Saints are undefeated and after not covering for three straight weeks broke out of their shell against the Bucs last week. We finally reversed our Saints jinx and won some cash on them and we look to do so again this week. We are betting the Saints to win and cover.
New England
- Patriots are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
- Patriots are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
- Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Saints are 5-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Free NFL Week 12 Picks: Happy Turkey Day! We are sinking our teeth into some meaty breasts, legs and thighs!!!
RPJ Bets of the Day: We were only 2-2 last week and now stand at 32-28 on the season. We have been streaky, either coming in around 500 or blowing out the weekend with a 5-0 pick. We are going to kick off turkey day with a tribute to fleshy meat and pick three games on the day. We will be back on Saturday with the rest of our picks.
Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5) - This is definitely a scary line. The Lions fought admirably last week and pulled the W against the Browns. They ended up smashing up their two best players in Stafford and Megatron; both are doubtful for tomorrow. You never know what you will get with Green Bay but it appears that their O-line is coming together and they pulled nice wins at home against Dallas and San Francisco. Then you look at this series and you realize that Green Bay has covered in 6 of the last 7. We are scared of the 10.5 points but we think the best team will win and will win big. We are taking Green Bay to win and cover!
Green Bay
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Packers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
- Packers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games.
- Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite.
- Lions are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Lions are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games in November.
- Lions are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
- Lions are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
- Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Lions are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf.
- Lions are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games.
- Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.
- Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Detroit.
Oakland at Dallas (-13.5) - Nothing like betting against the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Something the whole family can enjoy together; even your crazy Uncle Joe will get on board. One thing is consistent this year with the Raiders and that is the fact that they follow up every win with a huge loss. Beat KC 13-10, lose 23-3 at home to Denver; beat the Eagles 13-9 and lose to the Jets 38-0; beat the Bengals 20-17 and lose to the Cowboys 56-3. Well we filled in the last score but we have no reason to think otherwise. We do not think this game will be close at any point. Also, the betting public is demented on this one based on last week’s results. 54% of the money is on the Raiders at time of print. We look at a team’s body of work in the NFL and do not focus on the game to game. Do not bet with the public in this game. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!!
Oakland
- Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
- Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12.
- Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November.
- Cowboys are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
- Cowboys are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
NY Giants at Denver (+6) - Get on the bus. It is pick on Denver Broncos time. Not only has Denver lost 4 in a row, they have lost 4 in a row ATS. Their smallest margin of loss over this stretch was 10 points to the lowly Washington Redskins. The Broncos lost to Pittsburgh at home by 18, lost to San Diego at home by 29 and will lose to the Giants by a margin larger than 6 points. Also, during this 4 game losing stretch, the Broncos were outgained on the ground by 88, 54, 146 and 59. Now the Giants come to town and will continue this domination. The Giants had their own 4 game losing streak but broke through last week against the Falcons. We will look for them to keep rolling. We are betting the Giants to win and cover!!!
NY Giants
- Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games.
- Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Giants are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.
- Giants are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Giants are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Giants are 15-32-2 ATS in their last 49 games in November.
- Broncos are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 7-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
- Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 12.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
- Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy nailed another huge weekend. It was 10-5-1 and is now 83-74-2 on the season. Just a few weeks ago this thing was many games under 500 and we almost stopped tracking it. These late season underdogs are really helping Vegas make their money back. If you have been getting burned betting on the favorites then switch to this. It has nailed it for the last month. Underdogs in bold.
Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5)
Oakland (+13.5) at Dallas
NY Giants at Denver (+6)
Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta
Miami at Buffalo (+3)
Cleveland (+14) At Cincinnati
Indianapolis at Houston (+3)
Carolina (+3) at NY Jets
Washington (+9) at Philadelphia
Seattle at St. Louis (+3)
Kansas City (+13.5) at San Diego
Jacksonville (+3) at San Francisco
Arizona at Tennessee - no line yet
Chicago (+10.5) at Minnesota
Pittsburgh at Baltimore - No line yet
New England (+3) at New Orleans
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Knockout Pool Strategy - We are getting closer and closer to having a winner in our big knockout pool. We can smell the $$$$$ coming our way. With just a few upsets more we will be good to go. This week is a solid time to take the Bengals. Bengals are coming off the dreadful Oakland trip, just ask Philly about that one, and the Browns are coming off a deflating, season busting loss to the Lions. Week 13 here we come.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Free NFL Week 11 Winning Picks: Time to separate the men from the boys!
The NFL is gearing up for an awesome second half of the season. Will the Saints and Colts go undefeated? Will the Benglas win their division? How many more superstars will get knocked out: Westbrook, Turner, Ronnie Brown, etc… How many more gay slurs can Larry Johnson fit in the rest of the season? Should be a great rest of the season.
RPJ Syndicate Picks: We were 6-3 last week and are now 30-26 on the season. These are our straight picks and we are really zeroing in on the NFL right now.
Washington at Dallas (-10.5) - Cowboys laid a big fat egg in Green Bay last week. The Redskins scored more than 17 points for the first time this season and won a game. Only reason they won was because Orton was knocked out but that is inconsequential. The Cowboys will not pull a dud against an NFC East foe. No way, no how. The Skins have only covered 1 of their last 4 and the Cowboys have only not covered 1 in their last 4 and both were last week. Look for a fired up Cowboys team to take it to the Skins. The Skins Defense did not respond until Orton was knocked out of the game. Trust Flash Flash, he was there, the Skins are terrible and the Cowboys are not as bad as they looked. On top of that, the Cowboys win a statistical sweep of the important metrics we track and should be able to run the ball up and down the field and keep the Skins offense off the field. We are looking for a game along the lines of 27-10. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!
Washington
- Redskins are 3-7-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Redskins are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
- Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
- Redskins are 3-11-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
- Redskins are 1-4-3 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Redskins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
- Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Redskins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
- Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
- Cowboys are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5) - The Giants have not won a game since playing Oakland on October 11, losing 4 in a row. It is amazing how Oakland’s power of Suck transferred to the Giants and have brought them down as well. The Giants loss to the Chargers was heartbreaking and they had the bye week to let their skid really sink in. It will be interesting to see how the G-men respond. tom Coughlin made the San Diego game a “must win” game and they did not win. The Giants are a professional bunch and any team with a Manning on it is pretty much guaranteed to compete so that brings us to the Falcons. The Falcons lost Michael Turner last week and that is a major blow. Snelling, his replacement averaged about 3 yards a carry last week and Norwood is still banged up. Ryan is having some growing pains this season and the Giants nasty pass rush is not one to help reverse any struggles. The Giants will be too much for the Falcons to handle right now. We are betting the Giants to win and cover!!!
Atlanta
Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11.
NY Giants
- Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Giants are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
- Giants are 39-19-3 ATS in their last 61 vs. NFC.
- Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
- Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Seahawks are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay - We really like to torture ourselves. As soon as we got on the Saints bandwagon, they go and lose three ATS in a row to the likes of Atlanta, Carolina and St. Louis. C’mon now Saints!!! Well we are going back to the well again this week. The Saints owe us per se. Tampa Bay is hot right now as well. They beat Green Bay and should have beat Miami last week. We know they donot have the fire power to compete with the Saints and we expect their rookie QB to make some mistakes pressing the action. Sharper pick 6 anybody? So now we are going to look at some stats so you do not think we are betting out of spite, maybe a little spite, but not a lot of spite. Saints run for more than 50 yards more per game, 4.7 versus 4.0 yards per rush per game, complete 47% of their 3rd down conversions to the Bucs 30% and the Bucs D gives up 167 yards per game on the ground (2nd worst in the league), 4.9 yards per rush and lets teams convert 42% of their third down attempts. Also, the Bucs D only has 17 sacks on the season so they will not get to Brees. This will be a long, rude, awakening for Tampa Bay. The Saints win and cover!
New Orleans
- Saints are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Saints are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Buccaneers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
- Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
- Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay.
- Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Underdog Strategy: The underdog strategy is freakin on fire. The underdog strategy was 10-5 last week and is now 73-69-1 on the season. This thing has been hot. Right when we were going to write this strategy off it turned real fast and is now crushing it. Underdog is in bold.
Miami (+3) at Carolina - Already 1-0 this week
Indianapolis at Baltimore (+2)
Washington (+10.5) at Dallas
Cleveland (+3.5) at Detroit
San Francisco (+6.5) at Green Bay
Buffalo (+9) at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+10)
Seattle (+10.5) at Minnesota
Atlanta (+6.5) at NY Giants
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11)
Arizona at St. Louis (+9.5)
San Diego at Denver - no line yet
NY Jets (+10.5) at New England
Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5)
Philadelphia at Chicago (+3)
Tennessee (+4.5) at Houston
Knockout Pool Strategy: Hopefully you are like us right now and still alive in your knockout pool. We are down to about 20-25 people in ours and we are feeling good about the NFL right now. We love our pick this week. Remember the basic rules for your knockout pool. 1) Never bet on a road team 2) never save teams for later in the season. All you need to do is pick the team with the highest opening line that is playing at home. We know some people will take Detroit this week to try and get lucky. We say good luck. There is no reason to ever select a terrible team.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars
Free NFL Week 10 Winning Picks: We will make you so much money you will be wiping your arse with cash! And the Colin Cowherd NFL bet of the year!
RPJ $yndicate Picks - We were 2-2 last week and are now 24-23 on the season. Monday night football saved us from a downer weekend. In rare form, we are coming at you with a large amount of picks this week. Sometimes it is just a perfect mix of systems and we bet heavy on the weekend. This is one of those weekends. We are coming at these games hard and expecting our best weekend yet. We are going to wipe our ass with money this week!!!
Tampa Bay at Miami (-10) - On paper this game looks really ugly. We know Tampa is coming off a nice home win but they still do not have a good defense, do not have any good skill players and do not have much of anything else. Miami should really dominate this game. The Fins rush for half a yard more per rush, 55 more rushing yards per game, is 20% better converting offensive third downs, Tampa gives up 163 yards rushing per game (3rd worst in the league), gives up 4.8 yards per rush and is just terrible all around. The creamsicle unis will not work this week. This is actually Colin Cowherd’s NFL bet of the season. He rarely bets on NFL Games and he said on his show today that he called Vegas and was putting a lot of money on this game. He loves Miami, says they are the second most physical team in the league to the Steelers and the Bucs are the worst team in the NFL. We agree on all accounts. We are betting the Dolphins to win and cover with confidence!!!
Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5) - Minnesota at home coming off a bye against Detroit. This is a lot of points but a rested Vikings D will cause all sorts of problems for the Lions and a rested Vikes’ O-line will open up wide lanes for A-Pete and give Favre all the time he needs. Detroit gives up 4.65 yards per rush. That is a recipe for a loss if we ever heard one. Vikes have 30 sacks, Detroit has given up 26. Heard enough yet? We are taking Minnesota to win and cover this monster number!
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) - Cincy has not had much luck against their hated rivals in years past. This is the same place where Carson Palmer shredded his knee a couple of seasons ago. However, this Bengals team is like none we’ve seen in recent years. Their D gets after it and they are running the ball very, very well. They will need to do it again this week to beat the Steelers at home. The teams have identical records (6-2). The Bengals are undefeated on the road. The Steelers are undefeated at home. What will give? We think the Bengals will cover if not win outright. The Bengals want this game more. In fact, this is probably the game they had circled on their calendars all year. Carson Palmer looks great and he is locked in with Ochocinco. That spells trouble for the Steelers secondary. They key to this game will be the Bengals receivers against the secondary of the Steelers. We think they can handle Pittsburgh and Ochocinco should have a solid game. That will free up room for Cedric Benson to run between the tackles. Also, consider that the road team in this match-up is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Take the Bengals and the points.
New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis - We are still on the Saints bandwagon even though they have lost two covers in a row for us. We are going to get on this horse one more time. Three times is the charm right? Only thing that has us a little nervous is that the Saints D gives up 4.5 yards per rush on defense. Remember what DeAngelo Williams and Stewart did against the Saints. However, we think the Saints will get up early and pour it on and this will limit the Rams running game. Yes we said that last week but this week we think there is a better chance of a 2 TD win. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!
Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5) - Jump on the Vince Young bandwagon. Vince Young is a winner! Tennessee has covered in both of their wins the last two weeks. We just do not know what the Bills have going on for them Trent Edwards is back but there will be no TO in the lineup. This game is going to be all about the ball control and that favors the Titans in a big way. Tennessee runs for 50 more yards per game and is averaging 5.4 yards per rush. That is sick for a team with a 2-6 record. Now you combine those Tennessee rushing stats against Buffalo’s defense and your money will be flowing to the Titans. The Bills give up 174 yards per game on the ground (worst in the league) and teams are running at a 5.2 yards per run clip. We are betting Tennessee to win and cover!!!
Seattle at Arizona (-8.5) - No Super Bowl hangover for this bunch. The Cards are nasty. Zona had their mini blip against the Panthers but they have been solid. Warner absolutely destroyed the Bears in Chicago. and has covered 4 of their last 5 ATS in general. The Cards defense is not playing that badly as well and we look for that to be the big difference maker in this game. The Cards defense is good against the run and excellent in preventing opposing offenses from converting third downs. They are actually best in the league in that category. We are betting the Cards to win and cover!
Dallas (-3) at Green Bay - Dallas is hot and Green Bay is not. The Packers can not get out of the way of their offensive line injuries and Dallas and D. Ware will tee it up against them. Rodgers is banged up and we would not be surprised if he does not make it through this game. Dallas is on a hot streak, winning 4 in a row and covering three in a row. Packers fought hard against the Vikings and then tanked it last week against the Bucs. We like the Pack but not with their patch work line right now. Look for Dallas to exploit all of Green Bay’s weaknesses. You can not give up 37 sacks through 8 games and survive the season. We are betting Dallas to win and cover!
New England at Indianapolis (-3) - As much as we have a man crush on Peyton Manning and the Colts we think this is where their winning streak comes to an end. Tom Brady looks like he has sanded off his early season rust, they are running again and Randy Moss is making big plays. The Pats have played a brutal early season schedule and has taken care of business to the tune of 6-2. New England started the year 3-2 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. Tom Brady didn’t look comfortable with his receivers and opponents didn’t seem to have much trouble slowing down the Pats’ offense. But over their last three games, the Patriots are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 121-24. These teams look pretty similar on paper and we expect a great game but we think the Pats are the hotter, more complete team right now. We are betting the Pats to cover and will probably play the money line on top of taking the points!
Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland - Nothing like Monday Night Football and the Cleveland Browns to snap a decent team out of a losing 4 out of 5 funk. We are still not sure how the Browns ever beat Buffalo and the amazing thing is that the Browns have a QB rating around 40!!!! That is even worse than the Raiders. This game really needs zero analysis because we know the Ravens Defense will play into the MNF effect and be fired up. Browns have zero chance. We are betting Baltimore to win and cover!!!
Underdog Strategy - This strategy kicked ass last week going 10-3. After a slow and erratic start this plan has rebounded and is almost 500. The strategy sits at 63-64-1. All we do here is track what would happen if we bet on every single underdog each week. As dumb as this sounds there are some seasons where this pays off huge. Underdogs are in bold.
Chicago (+3) at San Francisco
Atlanta at Carolina (+2)
Tampa Bay (+10) at Miami
Detroit (+16.5) at Minnesota
Jacksonville (+7) at NY Jets
Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh
New Orleans at St. Louis (+13.5)
Buffalo (+6.5) at Tennessee
Denver at Washington (+3.5)
Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland
Seattle (+8.5) at Arizona
Dallas at Green Bay (+3)
Philadelphia (+2) at San Diego
New England (+3) at Indianapolis
Baltimore at Cleveland (+10.5)
Knockout Pool Strategy - Seattle had us nervous last week after a lackluster first half but we kept our streak alive. Here is our history and our Week 10 pick. You gotta love that we still have some of the best teams in the league alive for the home stretch. We can smell a huge payday!!!
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis
NFL Winning Picks Week 9: Slim Pickings so we salute you..Mr. I love cleavage sports bettor!
On the season we are now 22-21. We gave away our early season gains and have been in a rut the last two weeks. Last week was flat out terrible but we will recover. We did go 5-0 earlier in the season.
RPJ $yndicate Picks - These are our straight picks. We sucked it up at 1-4 last weekend but feel good about our picks this week. We normally want to come back strong after a terrible showing but we only have three picks for you this week.
Carolina at New Orleans (-13) - We are jumping right back on the Saints bandwagon. We jinxed them last week but are ready for a rebound. Thirteen points is definitely a lot and Carolina is coming off a nice win against a hot Cardinals team. We think this is mismatch city. Carolina will try to run the ball, will get behind, will start to press and Jake Delhomme will go pick 6 to Sharper. The Saints can score and the Saints defense is nasty. Saints win and cover!
Detroit at Seattle (-10) - We seem to pick a lot of these games. Lions are bad, really bad. Lose to the Rams bad. Megatron is banged up, they either have a turnover machine in Culpepper or a rookie in Stafford out there. They really do not have much talent. Not like Seattle is a superstar but they are strong enough on defense and with Hasselback under center they at least have a fighter’s chance to score some points. Seahawks will be too much. Seattle wins and covers!
Dallas at Philadelphia (-3) - Both teams are hot but Philly has the defense to get Romo throwing those interceptions again. Miles Austin is tearing it up but who did he go against. Now he will go against Asante Samuels and they Eags secondary and it will be a different story. The line is saying these teams are basically even. We disagree. At this point in the season, the Eagles have been far more impressive on their current run. Do not buy into the Cowboys in this situation. Eagles win and cover!
Underdog Strategy - Every time we threaten to stop tracking the underdog strategy it produces a winner. Last week the underdog strategy was 8-5 and now sits at 53-61-1 on the season. All we track here is what would happen if you bet the underdog every single week. Underdog in bold.
Washington (+9) at Atlanta
Arizona (+3) at Chicago
Baltimore at Cincinnati (+3)
Houston (+9) at Indianapolis
Kansas City (+6.5) at Jacksonville
Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+10)
Miami (+11) at New England
Carolina (+13) at New Orleans
Detroit (+10) at Seattle
San Diego (+4.5) at NY Giants
Tennessee (+4.5) at San Francisco
Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at Denver (+3)
Knockout Pool Strategy -This is pretty simple. We have been advising people that play in a knockout pool. All you need to do is pick one team to win and if you win that game you can not use that team again. We are still alive in our knockout pools and hope you are as well.
Week 1: New Orleans Saints
Week 2: Washington Redskins
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: Chicago Bears
Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: New England Patriots
Week 8: San Diego Chargers
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Enjoy the picks!
Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis