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NFL Championship Game Playoff Predictions: Jets vs. Colts and Vikings vs. Saints. It is Go Time!!

We locked in another 2-2 weekend last week. This time we won both AFC games and lost both NFC games. We are now 4-4 during the playoffs with 3 games left to make some serious coin. We totally blew the Cowboys/Vikings game and to quote Bill Simmons, we wish we cold have bet the Saints/Cards game after two Kurt Warner series. The Cards were just off big time and were done in the 1st quarter. We are looking to hit both games this weekend and in honor of one of our fan requests, we are dedicating this post to wet t-shirts. One interesting tidbit to remember when you bet this weekend…Dome teams are 4-1 all-time in conference championship games played on their home turf. The Vikings were the only casualty of that scenario when they lost to Atlanta, 30-27, as 10.5-point favorites in 1998. Be careful picking both underdogs.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

AFC Championship Game: NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-8) - First and foremost, this line is brutal. 7.5 - 8 points seems like the perfect line. We think the Colts will win but we love the value we can get with 8 points by taking the Jets and we do think the Jets have a chance to pull the major upset based on some of the finer points we list below. Betting is all about value so we really want you to understand this game before placing any bets. We are just going to throw out a bunch of points that we think matter.

- Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The two losses were the two they tanked to end the season.

- Bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

- Not sure the value in this stat but Peyton Manning is 7-5 lifetime against the Jets and has thrown 13 TDs with 13 INTs in the 12 games.

- In their first matchup, The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.

- In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

- The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

- In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in the playoffs this year.

- In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

- The Jets are 7-0 when Revis has a pick this year.

- The Jets defense was league best in the following categories this season: gave up 236 points, QBs completed 51.7% of their passes against the Jets, gave up 153.7 yards passing per game, game up 8 passing TDs all season and opposing QBs had a QB rating of 58.8 against the Jets. All we can say is WOW!

- The Colts offensive had the following highlights on the season: Threw the second most passes, had the most completions, threw for the second most passing yards with 282.2 yards per game, led the league in passing TDs, completed 66.9% of their passes and had a QB rating of 95.4.

- This line looks like a bit of a trap. The line opened at Colts -7.5 and is bouncing between -7.5 and -8. 61% of the money is on the Colts and we think with that type of action we would see this line trend upwards and it has not. Only 5Dimes has wild line swings right now and if you pick the right time you can get this line as low as -5.5 and as high as -9.5.

We love this line at Colts -8 for Jets bettors and would recommend taking the Colts at anything below 7 points. We typically try and bet underdogs to cover when we think they can win outright. We think the Jets have a slight chance of doing this, not as much as we usually like but we think 8 points provides too much value for a Championship game. With this being said, We are taking the Jets to cover!!! One last note to throw out there to make you more confident in our pick, the Colts are 0-5 straight up playing against the 3-4 Defense in their last 5 games. Take that to the bank!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - This might be a large mistake but we are not impressed with this Vikings team and we think they have some key injuries. Furthermore, the win against Dallas was not impressive at all. The Cowboys quit as soon as Suisham missed the 2nd FG (which was early). The Boys O is nowhere near as good as the Saints and the Boys were cutting them up until Romo became Romo and fumbled the ball 4 times in the 1st half. Brees will absolutely not make that mistake and he is locked in with 3 legit receivers and Shockey. The Vikes secondary is overrated and Winfield is 5′-10″. The Boys matched Roy Williams (6′4″) up against him and didn’t throw to him once. Brees will pick that match-up apart. Brees will 3 step drop and throw all game and the Vikes D line will get frustrated by not being able to get him. That was the formula the Panthers, Bears and Cards all used against the Vikes and it worked like a charm. The Boys are dumb because they watched no tape on it and Romo held the ball too long. Brees will eat that up. He is smart because he will take a 3 and out over forcing the ball any day of the week. Romo hasn’t figured that out yet. We think Reggie Bush will continue to be a force. Remember, Reggie is playing for a contract so it was not surprising to us to watch him run physically for the first time in his career. Coach Payton is not a moron like Jason Garrett and will definitely mix things up. The Super Dome will be insane and this stadium is special and getting more and more vibrant and relevant as a home field advantage as the playoffs move forward. The Vikes are clearly not as good on the road. Favre is due for a typical Favre 3 pick game. The Saints win over the Cards was way more impressive to me than the Vikes win over the Boys. The Saints dominated one of the best postseason QB’s in the league’s history and they made Fitzgerald a non-factor. I think the Saints will get up early and Favre will just start slinging the ball around. Peterson will be a non-factor and he hasn’t been good at all down the stretch. Plus, he fumbles like crazy. He had none against the Boys so we think he is due. So we bet you can sense where we are going with the smorgasbord of anti Vikings propaganda. If you thought this, you thought correct. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!

Minnesota Vikings

• Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Vikings are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
• Vikings are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Vikings are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions: The Weekend of the Underdog!

Well we went 2-0 on Saturday and 0-2 on Sunday in predicting the Wild Card games so we ride our two game losing streak into the divisional round. We went back to look at some of the data and found out some surprising results. The Divisional round pits the two best teams against the wild card followers and a lot of the betting experts are quick to point out that the home team wins most of the time. Well we beg to differ. Three of the four road teams in last year’s Divisional round won straight up and all three were 3-point underdogs or greater. Each of those games fell under the posted total with the dogs holding their opponents to 13, 11 and 10 points. Two years ago, both Sunday road team won outright and three years ago two road teams won. Since 2003, the road team has won outright 11 out of 24 times.  So this thinking is not rocket science but we are simply mentioning it to make you think. When we dig deeper into the games this weekend and crunch the numbers through our proprietary system, we came to the same conclusion in picking our winners….this is the weekend of the underdog!!!

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Arizona at New Orleans (-7) - This is one of the toughest games to call this weekend. The Cardinals got smoked by Green Bay in week 17 then race out to a huge lead in the Wild Card rematch, blow the lead, miss a game winning FG and then win by freak play in overtime. The New Orleans Saints have lost 3 in a row. Some would argue that they had home field wrapped up and therefore let up but the problems started the first week of December. The Saints smoked the Pats to end November and then barely got by Atlanta and Washington. Then they lost to Dallas at home and followed it up by losing to Tampa at home and then Carolina on the road. So there are two things to think about: 1) Will the real Cardinals team please stand up and will they play for 4 quarters 2) Were the Saints tanking it and if so can they come out blazing? The brilliance of betting with a line spread is we do not care who wins. Can the Cardinals win? Sure they can. Can the Saints win by 3 TDs? Sure they can. Here is what we do know. The Cardinals can score on anybody at any time. The Packers had the second rated defense in the league and Warner had more TD passes than incompletions (5 to 4). Just sick numbers. Are you willing to be against him? The Saints have been out rushed in 5 of the last 6 games and the one game they were not out rushed they had 6 more rushing yards than their opponent. Not impressive. The Cardinals actually rushed for 150+ yards against the Packers and their coaching staff knows the value of rushing in the playoffs. They learned the Pittsburgh way… Rush and play defense. And on top of the Pittsburgh way, the Cards have Kurt Warner at QB and are deep in the offensive skill areas. It does not even matter if Boldin plays. We are not sure New Orleans can simply turn the juice back on, come out firing on offense, pressure on defense and impose their will. If we had to pick the team that can do this right now it is Arizona and with that….We are betting Arizona to cover!! The line looks legit. Saints opened at -7 and it has remained pretty flat. Right now 60% of the money is on the Cardinals and we are seeing some line drops out there.

Arizona

• Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) - This is the one game we have been hemming and hawing about. The Ravens looked straight nasty last weekend against the Pats. Yes their QB was 4-10 for less than 40 yards, 34 to be exact, with one INT but they did not need him to win and that is scary. Ray Rice is on a tear and is earning elite status and a top 5 pick in fantasy football next season. So we have a hot Ravens team and that brings us to the Colts. A lot of times people forget the “loser” label that Peyton Manning used to have before he won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl gave him the pass. Here are some Peyton facts. Peyton has not won, We repeat has not won a playoff game following a first round bye. Jim Caldwell has tried to mix things up this week practicing first team O versus first team D but is that really enough? time will tell. Also, since the Colts won the Super Bowl, they have won zero playoff games. So how does this positive, hot Ravens team mesh with the “losing” label of the Colts. We need to look at their historical head to head matchups. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards in five straight versus Indianapolis while getting held to 3.3 per carry. Rice has 26 attempts for 94 yards in two meetings. The Ravens have committed 25 turnovers during their seven-game skid in the series and they’ve never won in four trips to Indianapolis, falling 31-3 last season. Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception while Flacco was picked off three times. Flacco, 15 of 29 for 136 yards over the last two weeks, is bothered by a hip injury that had him limping in practice this week. So when we combine the specific Colts versus Ravens matchup we definitely have to lean one way. We do not think the Ravens are capable of repeating their efforts of last week and a rested Colts team will come out blazing. This line is holding pretty flat at Colts -7 to -6.5. 69% of the money is on the Colts, which might smell trap. Watch to see where the money and line go as we get closer to kickoff. We are betting the Colts to win and cover!

Ravens

• Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
• Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Dallas at Minnesota (-3) - This will probably be one of the most viewed NFL games ever. Favre in the playoffs versus the Cowboys. Ratings City!!! A lot is being made of the Cowboys right now shaking the December and playoff bug. What is not being mentioned is how good the Cowboys are right now on both side of the ball and in the trenches. Just to recap the Cowboys 4 game winning streak and ATS winning streak….

1/9/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards.

1/3/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 24-0 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards (freaky coincidence - 142).

12/27/2010 - Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0 and out rush the Skins by 65 yards.

12/19/2010 - Cowboys win at New Orleans 24-17 and out rush the Saints by 80 yards.

Seeing a trend here? We are. Playoff football is won by rushing the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing awesome defense. The Cowboys are playing sick defense and doing it without blitzing. D Ware and A Spencer are locked and loaded and destroying O-linemen. The Cowboys are running at will and Romo is playing efficient, mistake free football. Winning playoff combinations. The Vikings have an equally impressive defense but Jared Allen has slowed the last month. Not saying he will not rise up for the Cowboys game but he has not continually dominated and improved game after game like the Cowboys men down the stretch. We also get nervous for Flozell Adams. He becomes “Mr. Jump offsides” when the crowd gets noisy. Also, the Viking’s O-line is not letting A-Pete run wild like he did in the beginning of the season. It has been a loooooong time sine #28 broke 100 yards rushing. This is largely a momentum play, but we are getting points. The head-to-head stats do not support our theory so buyer beware. This line looks pretty legit. The line opened at Vikes -3 and is bouncing back and forth to -2.5 with 55% of the money on the Cowboys. We are betting the Cowboys to cover!

Dallas

• Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in January.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.

NY Jets at San Diego (-8) - The Jets run game and defense are hot right now. Sanchez played exactly as a rookie QB needs to play in the playoffs and that is playing efficiently and playing not to lose. He was perfect last week and we look for more of the same this week. There is some danger in this game if you are a Chargers fan. The Chargers were not able to run the ball well this season and certainly will not be able to run on the Jets. If the Chargers can not run then they will be pass happy and that puts them in the way of the Jets blitzes and the Jets MVP, Mr. Revis. On the flip side, the Chargers D gave up 4.45 yards per rush and the Jets O rushed for 4.53 yards per carry. Now we are not predicting a Jets victory because we do not have to. We are here to make winning bets and 8 points are too many points for this battle. This line opened at Chargers -9 and is now down to -8 or -7.5 depending on the sports book. We are seeing 63% of the money on the Jets so we know this is a true line. We are betting the Jets to cover in this game!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

San Diego

• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
• Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Chargers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Chargers are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions: 4 Games, 4 Stories, 4 Toes and 4 Winners!

We love the NFL playoffs. We crushed them last season and we are taking our winning regular season record into the postseason. We are going to pick all 4 games for you and the trends are easy to spot. You do not stink it up the week before the playoffs against the same opponent and come out strong and you do not beat Tom Brady at home. We are mingling our picks with a Wild Card playoff salute to the Toe of the Camel. On with the picks…

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.

NY Jets

• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?

Eagles

• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.

Ravens

• Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

Week 17 Winning NFL Picks: The End of the Road!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - We threw in a loser last week and were 4-5 on the weekend. Our record now stands at 56-48-1. Nothing to get too excited about but it is a winning record. We are not going to pick games for Week 17. Who knows what kind of effort and players you will get this week. Better to avoid it and recoup for the playoffs next week.

Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:

Indy +8 at Buffalo

Saints +7 at Panthers

Jags +1.5 at Browns

Bears at Lions +3

Pats +7 at Texans

Steelers at Dolphins +3

Giants +9 at Vikes

49ers at Rams +8

Falcons at Bucs +1.5

Packers +3 at Cards

Chiefs +10 at Broncos

Ravens at Raiders +10.5

Skins +3 at Chargers

Titans at Seahawks +6

Eagles +3 at Cowboys

Bengals +9.5 at Jets

Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)

Week 16: Arizona Cardinals

Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets

Week 16 NFL Winning Picks: Playoff Implications All Around with lucky #7!

Crazy week in NFL. RPJ was a winner, the underdog strategy was a winner but we are sad to say we were knocked out of the winner’s bracket of our knockout pool. We now get lumped into the second chance grouping but will not win major coinage. Very sad. Crazy lines this week. Most of them seem to be 7 points or 14 points and there are a ton of 7-7 teams competing for a playoff spot. Hopefully 7 is our lucky number this week!

RPJ Betting $yndicate Picks - We have been hot lately and we credit the list format. The more analysis we give you the more we lose so now we are relegated to simply telling you what we are going to bet. Two weeks ago we were 8-4 and this past week we were 4-3-1. On the season, RPJ is now 52-43-1. So here is the list of the week:

Buffalo at Atlanta (-9) - We are betting the Falcons to win and cover!

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-14) - We are betting the Bengals to win and cover!

Seattle at Green Bay (-14) - We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!

Houston at Miami (-3) - We are betting Miami to win and cover!

Carolina at NY Giants (-7) - We are betting the Giants to win and cover!

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5) - We are betting the NY Jets to pull the cover!

Denver at Philadelphia (-7) - We are betting Philly to win and cover!

Dallas at Washington (+7) - We are betting Dallas to win and cover!

Minnesota at Chicago (+7) - We are betting the Vikings to win and cover!

The Underdog Strategy - Every time we feel like writing this strategy off, it goes nuts on us. Last week, underdogs were 11-4-1 in the NFL. That is a serious payday. On the season, this strategy is now 117-103-3. It seems to us that when the favorites go on a big run, the following week is a HUGE opportunity to bet the underdogs. Vegas tends to get carried away with their lines. We think this has validity. Underdogs in bold

San Diego (+3) at Tennessee

Buffalo (+9) at Atlanta

Kansas City (+14) at Cincinnati

Oakland (+3) at Cleveland

Seattle (+14) at Green Bay

Houston (+3) at Miami

Carolina (+7) at NY Giants

Jacksonville (+8) at New England

Tampa Bay (+14) at New Orleans

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh

St. Louis (+14) at Arizona

Detroit (+12) at San Francisco

NY Jets at (+5.5) Indiananpolis

Denver (+7) at Philadelphia

Dallas at Washington (+7)

Minnesota at Chicago (+7)

Knockout Pool Strategy - It was a very sad day in RPJ Land last week. Effing Raiders dashed our HUGE payout in the knockout pool. Effing Raiders and their last minute come from behind win against the freakin Denver Broncos, 14 point favorite Denver Broncos, with Jamarcus, 10th string, Russell engineering the come from behind win. Yes we are bitter. Our knockout pool has a second bracket for the losers to keep playing but the payout sucks because it is chopped between all remaining losers when the winner’s bracket ends. Probably end up with $50 even if we win and that blows. So based on this we are still picking.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)

Week 16: Arizona Cardinals

Week 15 NFL Winning Picks: We will make you more money than Tiger Woods paid his Mistresses!!! And that is a lot!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - We predicted the exact truth once again, we lost our first game of the week. Jags almost had it but did not come through in the end. Kudos to Peyton & Co. We are now 48-40 on the season. We have a ton of games for you once again. Last week we simply listed them out and went 8-4 so we are not going to mess with what works. If you want any detailed insight, feel free to use our matchup tool on our website or contact us directly via email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com or sign up for our Facebook and/or Twitter feeds (top right of this website) and get in touch with us that way. On with the picks:

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-11) - We like the Ravens to win and cover

New England (-7) at Buffalo Bills - We like the Patriots to win and cover

Arizona Cardinals (-13) at Detroit Lions - we like the Lions to pull the cover

Atlanta Falcons at NY Jets (-6) - We like the Jets to win and cover

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) - We like the Eagles to win and cover

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14) - We like the Broncos to win and cover

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-7) - We like the Bengals to cover

Underdog Strategy - Underdog strategy was 7-9 last week and is now 106-99-2 on the season. Team in bold is the underdog.

Dallas Cowboys (+8) New Orleans Saints

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) - Already have one underdog loser.

Chicago Bears (+11) at Baltimore Ravens

New England at Buffalo Bills (+7)

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13)

Cleveland Browns (+2) at Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons (+6) at NY Jets

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+12.5)

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Oakland Raiders (+14) at Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at San Diego Chargers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (+2) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+9)

NY Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)

Knockout Pool Strategy - Our knockout pool is down to 11 people and we have a bad feeling all 11 are going to take our pick this week. For us, it is a huge no brainer to bet on the Denver Broncos to beat the bag out of the Raiders at home. We would not be surprised if this game was over in the first 5 minutes.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos

NFL Week 14 Winning Picks - Record number of winning picks!!!!

RPJ Betting $yndicate - It was nice of the Browns to rain on our Thursday parade but we are facing a colliding of the gambling forces this weekend. We love a ton of games. Since the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday, RPJ dropped to 40-35 on the season. Since we are facing so many different games this week, we are going to simply list the games that we like. When we did this in the NCAA we slayed it so hopefully it translates over to some nice Ws for RPJ and for you.

New Orleans (-10.5) at Atlanta - We are taking New Orleans to win and cover

Detroit at Baltimore (-13.5) - We are taking Baltimore to win and cover

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago - We are taking Green Bay to win and cover

Seattle at Houston (-6) - We are taking Houston to win and cover

Denver (-7) at Indianapolis - We are taking Denver to cover

Buffalo at Kansas City (pick em) - We are taking Kansas City to win and cover

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5) - We are taking the Vikings to win and cover

NY Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay - We are taking NY Jets to win and cover

St. Louis at Tennessee (-13) - We are taking Tennessee to win and cover

Washington (-1) at Oakland - We are taking Washington to win and cover

San Diego at Dallas (-3) - We are taking Dallas to win and cover

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1) - We are taking the Eagles to cover

Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5) - Already have an underdog winner!!

New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)

Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Seattle (+6) at Houston

Denver (+7) at Indianapolis

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville

Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota

Carolina (+13.5) at New England

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)

St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee

Washington at Oakland (+1)

San Diego (+3) at Dallas

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants

Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)

Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 14 Winning Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Unleash the Hell!

RPJ $yndicate Picks - These are our straight picks. Only one game tonight and we will be back later in the week with the rest of our weekend picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns - Accuscore is calling for a Steelers 23-13 win tonight. We like how they are thinking but we are not sure the Browns will be able to put up 13 points tonight in the snow. After Mike Tomlin’s now famous unleash hell comments the Steelers responded with a freakish loss at home to the Raiders. If you watched that game you know that the football gods screwed with the Steelers just like the god did when the Raiders beat the Bengals by freak plays. We do think the Steelers will unleash hell and we would not be surprised to see them win out. Big Ben is back, Mendenhall looks good, Holmes and Wallace will fill in just fine for a banged up Hines Ward tonight. Remember what this game is, the defending Super Bowl champs are playing the Browns. The 1-11 Browns. The Brady Quinn led Browns and we all know that no good QBs come out of Notre Dame since Joe Montana. Notre Dame’s season may be over but we will still find ways to rip them. Cleveland’s D is atrocious. They give up twice the rushing yards that Pittsburgh does and they gave up 26 points a game, which is 4th worst in the league. We think Pittsburgh does unleash hell tonight, even in the snow. We are betting Pittsburgh to win and cover!!

Pittsburgh

• Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 14.
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Underdog Strategy - Another big week out of the underdog strategy. Last week it was 10-6 and now sits at 99-90-2. This is not great but just remember: A) this is a winning strategy and B) all this is is picking the underdog every week. You would not have become rich doing this but you would have won more than lost. Underdogs in bold:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)

New Orleans at Atlanta (+10.5)

Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Seattle (+6) at Houston

Denver (+7) at Indianapolis

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville

Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick em

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota

Carolina (+13.5) at New England

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3)

St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee

Washington at Oakland (+1)

San Diego (+3) at Dallas

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants

Arizona at San Francisco (+3.5)

Knockout Pool Strategy - We picked another winner for you and remain alive in our high stakes knockout pool. Problem for us is we still have 16 smart players alive in ours and we actually think we might pick winners all the way through the end of the season. Never has the NFL been more predictable amongst the elite versus bad teams.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 13 Free Winning Picks: Straight Cash Homey!!!

RPJ $yndicate Picks - After going 5-4 last week, we are now 37-32 on the season. We still have a few weeks to show some improvement and all this really shows is if you take our our 5-0 week we are simply 500 on the season. We went on a late season surge with our NCAA picks and we plan on doing the same here.

Sunday December 6, 2009

Philadelphia (-5) at Atlanta - What is the over/under on Michael Vick references in this game. Probably enough to make us vomit in our mouths. This game is the culmination of horrible injuries for the Falcons. No Matt Ryan, if he plays Michael Turner will not be effective and starting guard Harvey Dahl went out last week. Yes, the Falcons won the game but they only rushed for 75 yards against the #32 rushing defense at the time. The Eagles are always capable of putting a beat down on somebody. We know the Eags are fighting their own injuries (Westbrook, their secondary and D Jax) but the Eagles have been here before. When they need somebody to step up, they step up. Grab Avant this week if you need a WR in fantasy football. So coming in to this game knowing Atlanta is banged up on offense, they really do not want to face the Eagles defense, which is a lot better than Atlanta’s. We also love the fact that the Falcons have the second worst defensive 3rd down conversion percentage. They let teams convert 3rd downs 47% of the time. That is horrific. We are betting the Eagles to win and cover big!

Philadelphia

• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 13.
• Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
• Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) - Big Ben back, Raiders still suck. Final score prediction 35-3. NEXT!!!

New England at Miami (+4) - This is a bizarre game on paper because when we look at the stats we look at and see one team ahead in the relevant stats by a wide margin we call that a clean sweep game, a no brainer! In this game, Miami is that team. Just to highlight a couple of them: Miami runs for more than 40 yards more per game, 6/10ths more per rush, converts offensive third downs 4 percentage points better and gives up less rushing yards, yards per rush and 3rd down conversions on defense. What does this all mean? It means Miami is the perfect antithesis of the Pats and should be able to control the clock and keep this game close. That is what we are banking on. We are betting the Dolphins to cover!

New England

• Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss.
• Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
• Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
• Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.

Baltimore at Green Bay (-3) - We did not expect this but Green Bay, like we explained for Miami, is another clean sweep team. They look better statistically in all the right places against the Ravens. We are not worried about Green Bay’s line because the Ravens only have 21 sacks on the season and have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. This is a winnable game for the Pack and we expect Aaron Rodgers to remain hot. We are betting Green Bay to win and cover!!!

Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy bombed last week to end what was one hell of a tear. On the season this strategy is now 89-84-2. Pretty interesting that all you have to do is bet every underdog and you come out with a winning record. Underdogs in bold:

NY Jets at Buffalo (+3.5) - Bills lose

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5)

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Carolina

St. Louis (+9.5) at Chicago

Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati

Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis

Houston at Jacksonville - No action due to pick em

Denver at Kansas City (+5)

Oakland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Washington (+9.5)

New England at Miami (+4)

San Diego at Cleveland (+13.5)

Dallas at NY Giants (+2.5)

San Francisco at Seattle - No action due to pick em

Minnesota at Arizona (+3)

Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay

Knockout Pool - We are still rocking along here. Our knockout pool is down to 17 people. Hopefully you are still alive in yours. We caught some guff this week from some of you knockout pool players, saying our strategy is dumb and we need to chart out our picks. Well we stick our nose up at you. Our strategy is simple, Take the opening lines of the week and pick the home team with the highest line. So for you naysayers, we are still here winning and guess what? We get to play the Colts this week!

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Free NFL Week 12 Picks: Happy Turkey Day! We are sinking our teeth into some meaty breasts, legs and thighs!!!

RPJ Bets of the Day: We were only 2-2 last week and now stand at 32-28 on the season. We have been streaky, either coming in around 500 or blowing out the weekend with a 5-0 pick. We are going to kick off turkey day with a tribute to fleshy meat and pick three games on the day. We will be back on Saturday with the rest of our picks.

Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5) - This is definitely a scary line. The Lions fought admirably last week and pulled the W against the Browns. They ended up smashing up their two best players in Stafford and Megatron; both are doubtful for tomorrow. You never know what you will get with Green Bay but it appears that their O-line is coming together and they pulled nice wins at home against Dallas and San Francisco. Then you look at this series and you realize that Green Bay has covered in 6 of the last 7. We are scared of the 10.5 points but we think the best team will win and will win big. We are taking Green Bay to win and cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
• Packers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games.
• Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite.

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5) - Nothing like betting against the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Something the whole family can enjoy together; even your crazy Uncle Joe will get on board. One thing is consistent this year with the Raiders and that is the fact that they follow up every win with a huge loss. Beat KC 13-10, lose 23-3 at home to Denver; beat the Eagles 13-9 and lose to the Jets 38-0; beat the Bengals 20-17 and lose to the Cowboys 56-3. Well we filled in the last score but we have no reason to think otherwise. We do not think this game will be close at any point. Also, the betting public is demented on this one based on last week’s results. 54% of the money is on the Raiders at time of print. We look at a team’s body of work in the NFL and do not focus on the game to game. Do not bet with the public in this game. We are betting the Cowboys to win and cover!!!

Oakland

• Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
• Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

NY Giants at Denver (+6) - Get on the bus. It is pick on Denver Broncos time. Not only has Denver lost 4 in a row, they have lost 4 in a row ATS. Their smallest margin of loss over this stretch was 10 points to the lowly Washington Redskins. The Broncos lost to Pittsburgh at home by 18, lost to San Diego at home by 29 and will lose to the Giants by a margin larger than 6 points. Also, during this 4 game losing stretch, the Broncos were outgained on the ground by 88, 54, 146 and 59. Now the Giants come to town and will continue this domination. The Giants had their own 4 game losing streak but broke through last week against the Falcons. We will look for them to keep rolling. We are betting the Giants to win and cover!!!

NY Giants

• Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
• Giants are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.
• Giants are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Giants are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 15-32-2 ATS in their last 49 games in November.

Underdog Strategy - The underdog strategy nailed another huge weekend. It was 10-5-1 and is now 83-74-2 on the season. Just a few weeks ago this thing was many games under 500 and we almost stopped tracking it. These late season underdogs are really helping Vegas make their money back. If you have been getting burned betting on the favorites then switch to this. It has nailed it for the last month. Underdogs in bold.

Green Bay at Detroit (+10.5)

Oakland (+13.5) at Dallas

NY Giants at Denver (+6)

Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta

Miami at Buffalo (+3)

Cleveland (+14) At Cincinnati

Indianapolis at Houston (+3)

Carolina (+3) at NY Jets

Washington (+9) at Philadelphia

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Kansas City (+13.5) at San Diego

Jacksonville (+3) at San Francisco

Arizona at Tennessee - no line yet

Chicago (+10.5) at Minnesota

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - No line yet

New England (+3) at New Orleans

Knockout Pool Strategy - We are getting closer and closer to having a winner in our big knockout pool. We can smell the $$$$$ coming our way. With just a few upsets more we will be good to go. This week is a solid time to take the Bengals. Bengals are coming off the dreadful Oakland trip, just ask Philly about that one, and the Browns are coming off a deflating, season busting loss to the Lions. Week 13 here we come.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

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