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Nina Moric

Week 14 Free NCAA Football Winning Picks: November Rain (11/29/2008)

Well we are getting to that time of year. The NCAA football regular season is almost over. We are a little, well a lot pissed, and we are scrambling right now to make this season a profitable one and it is quickly escaping us, much like the season for the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles fans hold a slimmer of hope what the rest of the nation knows is an impossibility. Well the chance RPJ can spin its record around to better than 55% is going to be a tall order. We think our system is coming around. We had a nice winning week last week and we are looking to build on it this week and weekend. Even Runny is on a nice little winning streak and when that happens you know it is going to be a great week! We have a bunch of picks for you this weekend so enjoy. We also are very pleased to bust out more Nina Moric pics.

 

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Virginia at Virginia Tech (-8 and OVER/UNDER 38) - We have been riding the Va Tech UNDER to some nice paydays lately; hitting three in a row. Even UVA has hit the UNDER 6 of their last 8 games. This game is right in our wheel house. Virginia Tech runs for 166 yards per game, almost twice UVA. Va Tech’s defense gives up 107 yards per game rushing and UVA gives up 144. Next piece of business, UVA turns the ball over 2.5 times per game and Va Tech only gives up 1.4 turnovers per game. UVA is crumbling down the stretch and has lost three games in a row. Here are the ATS numbers:

Virginia

Cavaliers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games.

Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games on grass.

Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall.

Under is 7-2 in Cavaliers last 9 games following a S.U. loss.

Under is 16-5-1 in Cavaliers last 22 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Under is 16-5-2 in Cavaliers last 23 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 games in November.

Under is 11-4-2 in Cavaliers last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 22-8-3 in Cavaliers last 33 conference games.

Under is 19-7-1 in Cavaliers last 27 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 21-8-3 in Cavaliers last 32 games following a ATS loss.

Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 9-4-1 in Cavaliers last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

The Hokies

Hokies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in November.

Hokies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Hokies are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 conference games.

Hokies are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Hokies are 61-30-1 ATS in their last 92 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Under is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 games on grass.

Under is 12-2 in Hokies last 14 home games.

Under is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Under is 6-2 in Hokies last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Under is 9-3 in Hokies last 12 games in November.

Under is 6-2 in Hokies last 8 conference games.

Under is 5-2 in Hokies last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

This is where Beamer ball really comes to play, in a home game, against a team on the ropes. Look for Va. Tech to completely dominate this game. Also, Va. Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against UVA. Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Virginia Tech. Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We think we have shown you the light. Expect UVA not to score and Va. Tech to run the ball a lot and run the clock down which leads to a nice UNDER. We are taking Virginia Tech to win and cover and we are on betting the UNDER also! If you only want to be this one way, Va. Tech is the way to go first. Save the UNDER for the true Degenerates.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (+7.5) - This is Oklahoma’s season. Most experts predict that Oklahoma will jump Texas in the BCS standings with a win over OK. State. In the case of a three way tie, the team with the highest BCS ranking goes to the Big 12 Title game. RETARDED!!!! But those are the rules. Oklahoma made a huge statement with their win against the Red Raiders and look for this team to continue their roll. Oklahoma has been one of the top 2 teams in the country this season and only played one half of bad football, the second half against Texas. They were winning at halftime. The Sooners have topped 60 points in each of their last three games and averaged 59.2 points and 598.0 yards in their five-game winning streak since losing to the Longhorns. The surge has made quarterback Sam Bradford a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, and he enters the game with 3,710 yards and 42 touchdown passes. But Bradford, who threw four TD passes in last year’s 49-17 win over Oklahoma State, also has a very strong backfield in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown. Each rushed for over 100 yards against Texas Tech and combined for five touchdowns. Here are the ATS numbers:

Oklahoma

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.

Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Sooners are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Sooners are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Sooners are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma State

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.

Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.

Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.

Head-to-Head

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma State.

Tough, tough numbers. We are simply going with the hot team. When you find a hot team you ride it until it bucks you off. We are taking Oklahoma to win and cover! 

Nevada (-5) at Louisiana Tech - This is one of those games where we throw out a game and a pick and you simply say huh, why are these two clowns picking this retarded game? Well it hits a blatant win and cover in our joint model and when that happens we bet it. Plain and simple. Here are the ATS numbers:

Nevada

Wolf Pack are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Wolf Pack are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.

Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

La Tech

Bulldogs are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.

Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Bulldogs are 7-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Bulldogs are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Well those numbers just about give it away. Nevada has won three in a row ATS in this series and we think they will continue that streak. We are taking Nevada to win and cover!

Notre Dame at USC (-31.5) - This is our favorite game of the weekend. Lee Corso said ND has zero chance of scoring a touchdown and ESPN’s Trevor Madich gave the quote of the week. Trevor said Notre Dame can consider the game a victory if they leave without suffering any serious, disabling injuries. He says Rey Rey, Mays and Cushing will lay the lumber and Notre Dame’s young players do not know how to protect themselves. We have never heard of any ESPN announcer actually predict injury. This is freakin hilarious. This is really all you need to see from the best defense in the country.

Just so you think we analyzed this game, here are some ATS numbers:

Notre Dame

Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-10.

Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.

Fighting Irish are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

USC

Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Trojans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.

Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Trojans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.

Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.

Trojans are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November.

Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Trojans are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Trojans are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Southern California.
• Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

We think those head-to-head numbers really tell the story. The last 6 years, USC is an elite program and Notre Dame should play in the MAC. The Fighting Leprechauns can not hold USC’s jock, they can smell it, but they sure as hell can not hold it!!! Only thing that has us nervous is every single friend of ours is calling us to figure out how to place bets on this game. People will take USC up to 40 points no problem. We get nervous when our boy Indian Pain calls to lay some cash but the more the merrier. We know our phones will be ringing off the hook from our boys in SoCal and our Notre Dame homer fans. Does not matter to us. USC wins big and covers!!!!

Flash Flash Picks

Arkansas State at North Texas (+20.5) - Runny is missing out on the wonderful betting opportunity other wise known as the Sun Belt Conference. Yes, I am back with a Sun Belt pick this week. I really like this game. North Texas is DEFEATED against the spread at home. Check this out too….North Texas gives up 209 rushing yards per game and Arkansas State runs for 209 yards per game. You know I love numbers like that. Also, North Texas turns it over 2.7 times per game. Teams that turn the ball over and can not stop the run are in for a long, long day. Throw in the fact that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and I have my team. Arkansas State wins and covers!

Flash Flash 3 play - I have a three play for you today. Basically these games never showed up on Runny’s radar so we skipped them for RPJ but they fall right in my wheel house. The basic premise as it was with the Arkansas State game is as follows: I follow numerous statistical data points and when one team literally sweeps the board for all relevant stats I call it my clean sweep games. Just so you do not think I am nuts, I look for an offensive rushing advantage, a defensive rushing advantage and a turnover margin leader. I look at multiple more stats but I just wanted to give you three pieces of my clean sweep model. So there are three more clean sweep games I am going to bet this weekend because one team is the clear victor in my model.

Game 1: Tulane at Memphis (-14) - Memphis will win and cover.

Game 2: New Mexico State at Utah State (-5.5) - Two miracles here, Utah State is favored and I am betting them to win and cover.

Game 3: Southern Miss at SMU (+15) - I am taking Southern Miss to win and cover.

There you have it. The first clean sweep Flash Flash three play. Not quite like the ass rape three play that was awesome but this is my latest creation.

Runny Pelvis picks

Sorry guys but I was active today and have had a great week. I am gearing up for Sunday’s NFL games. Stay tuned.

RPJ $yndicate Pic of the Day!

 

Flash Flash and Runny

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