Shania Twain

Week 13 Free NCAA Football Winning Picks for 11/22/08 Games: Texas Tech is the Real Deal!

Posted by Flash Flash for the Cash

November 21, 2008

Gotta love the games this weekend. This is probably going to get posted before the end results of the Friday night Mac-key attackey games but here is where we stand on the season:

RPJ $yndicate is 39-47-2 on the season

Flash Flash is 19-12-3 on the season (Two games pending in MAC action not counted from Friday night)

Runny Pelvis is 27-32-1 on the season

Our picks have not been up to snuff but we have some good things going on our website. First, you can check with our live tab odds to see the latest lines for all major sports, including NCAA football. Click here to see what we are talking about. Second, we have great analysis tools for every major sport out there. Click here to research your own games with our matchup analysis tool. If this does not come up to the sport or game you want just click the sport in red text within the Bodog ad. Yes this is an ad, but if you click the red text of NFL or NCAAF, it takes you to the analysis tools within our website. It does not bring up some weird cookies or any crap like that. Just plain old analysis. Last but not least, we are going to post a Bodog promotion at the bottom of this post. We know our picks have been crappy for the most part but if you like what we have to say and enjoy our research tools then you should consider opening a Bodog account. We are an affiliate and we plan to offer our readers some nice promotions for free cash, prizes and tournaments throughout the year through Bodog so you do not want to miss out. More than 6,000 people a day came to our old blog and many of you are finding us again so thank you for your support. Last, for real this time, if you ever have any questions for us feel free to email us at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com and also sign up to be a fan of ours on Facebook by searching for RPJ Betting Syndicate within Facebook. We post all of our best pics on there and use it as a tool to alert our readers what is going on. Alright, enough of the bullshiznit, bring on the picks and the HO, HO, Hose!

Brad Pitt must hit that hard! Angelina Jolie needs to be naked always!

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Illinois at Northwestern (+3) - We know damn well that this pick looks insane and we are terrified every time we put out a pick for this one simple reason. There is an anomaly in our models that when a team dominates another team in every statistical category that we have weighted as relevant but does not win the defensive running yards given up battle….literally that one stat, turns the underdog into a cover machine more than 70% of the time. It is flukey and bizarre but that is what it is. We hit it dead on with the Fresno State/UCLA game earlier in the season and we are bringing it back for this weekend. Here are all of the ATS numbers so you can make your own decision:

Illinois

Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Fighting Illini are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Fighting Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Fighting Illini are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Fighting Illini are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a S.U. loss.

Fighting Illini are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.

Fighting Illini are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Northwestern

Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Wildcats are 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a S.U. win.

Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

Wildcats are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Head-to-Head

Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

As we have said, we are very disciplined and this whacky model works 70% of the time so we are sticking with our guns. We are taking Northwestern to cover and do not be surprised with an outright win!

Duke at Virginia Tech (OVER/UNDER 41.5) - We have been riding the Va. Tech UNDER the last two weeks and we plan on doing more of the same. The outcome of the game is irrelevant to us. Va. Tech and Duke are both 2-0 for the UNDER in their last two games and the ATS numbers say it is going to go that way again. The ATS numbers are:

Duke

Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games in November.

Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Under is 16-5 in Blue Devils last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 21-7 in Blue Devils last 28 road games.

Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 games overall.

Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 conference games.

Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Virginia Tech

Under is 4-0 in Hokies last 4 home games.

Under is 4-0 in Hokies last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games on grass.

Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games following a ATS win.

Under is 8-3 in Hokies last 11 games in November.

Under is 5-2 in Hokies last 7 conference games.

There literally is not one number for the OVER from either team. We have made some decent scratch this year in games like this. We are taking the UNDER in the Duke at Va. Tech game!

BYU at Utah (-7) - This is a huge game for Utah and a huge rivalry for you non-Mt. West fans. The Utes were certainly at their best last weekend. Following a pair of tense 13-10 wins over New Mexico and TCU, they enjoyed a more comfortable victory last Saturday, building a 35-7 halftime lead and cruising to a 63-14 win at San Diego State. Perhaps just as impressive was Utah’s defense, which has allowed 11.4 points over the last five games. BYU likely won’t need any motivational speeches to get ready for Utah. The Cougars have won the last two Mountain West titles outright, and they’ll need to win Saturday to secure a share of their third straight crown, with TCU also involved in what could become a three-way tie. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s team will also be looking for its third straight win against its rivals after erasing deficits in the final minute of each of the last two victories. These have been great games the last two years and will be in the back of Brian Johnson’s mind. Utah seems like the team of destiny this year. They escape a win at Michigan and at home against both Oregon State and TCU. We do not need reminding how bad the TCU loss hurt. Here are the ATS numbers:

BYU

Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Utah

Utes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Utes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on field turf.

Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Utes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.

Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Utes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Utes are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.

Utes are 9-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Utes are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win.

We also like the fact that the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5. The spread does scare us a little bit and we were tempted to buy the half point to drop it to 6.5 but we think this is a ten point win. Utah has an underrated defense this year and we think BYU has an overrated offense. Bring the two together and you get a UTAH win by 10 points. We are taking Utah to win and cover!

Oregon State at Arizona (-2.5) - This game is pretty interesting. Oregon State is leading the Pac-10 and they are the underdog in this game. Arizona is 11th in scoring in the country but we think those numbers are not relevant. Arizona put 70 on Idaho (who cares), 41 on Toledo (who cares), 48 on Washington (who cares), 59 on Washington State (a double who cares) and then lost outright to New Mexico and Stanford. Arizona is not as good as people think. On the flip side, Oregon State is better than people think and yes we fully understand that the Beavs are only 2-3 on the road and the wins were at UCLA and Washington. The loses came at Stanford, Penn State and Utah. Oregon State is now on a 5 game winning streak, should have beat Utah and did beat USC and Hawaii. So in their last 8, they are 7-1 with the lone loss at Utah. Not so bad. Here are the ATS numbers:

Oregon State

Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Beavers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.

Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

Beavers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Beavers are 43-17 ATS in their last 60 games following a ATS win.

Beavers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Beavers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Arizona

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Wildcats are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.

Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Throw in the fact the the Beavs are 8-1 in their last 8 meetings and you know where we are going with this one. Yes, Oregon State is a young team but they are not inexperienced at QB, and that is the key position for a young team. Moevao is a Junior and Canfield is a junior so you get experience. The young team will be led by an experienced signal caller so this goes against what The Herd was talking about. We think he missed the boat in this game and we think this line should be flip flopped. We are taking Oregon State to cover and are pretty damn sure they win outright!

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7 and OVER/UNDER 75.5) - We are going to show you a series of Texas Tech girls and with girls like these how can you bet against them.

#9 is Fine!!!

This is the game of the day and we can not wait to watch it. When people speak clearly and with a great point there isno harm in copying them. The Herd already came out and said that Texas Tech has the advantaget at O-line, O-coach, QB and WR and they get 7 points. How freakin’ awesome is that?

Hut Hut Hike!

Here are the ATS numbers:

Texas Tech

Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Oklahoma

Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Sooners are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in November.

Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Head-to-Head

Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Yes the last number scares us and the ATS numbers do not steer you away from Oklahoma by any means. Here is the deal and how we see this game going down. This is not the normal run and gun Red Raiders team. This team runs for 132.6 yards per game and on paper their defense matches up well with Oklahoma’s D. Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS and the 2 losses were as the home team. Harrell can do more than Bradford. Crabtree is the best offensive athlete on the field. Texas Tech’s O-line has only given up 5 sacks on the season and that is with around 500 pass attempts. That is amazing. What is Stoops’ record in big games? Terrible. USC was a blowout, Boise State beat him, he lost to Texas this year in their biggest game of the season. This is the year of Texas Tech. They are a huge 7 point underdog in this game, people are not giving them a chance so they get to play with a chip on their shoulder and the Harrell/Crabtree duo is on fire. Texas Tech’s defense is underrated. The only real knock on the Red Raiders are their special teams. Last but not least, we have bought the hype in every big game this year and taken the over and we lose every time. We think Oklahoma plays ball control offense and we think Texas Tech will have success running the football. All of this adds up to two things for us….Texas Tech covers and we are taking the UNDER! Do not be surprised when Tech wins outright.

Yes, She is a TT student!

Flash Flash Picks

Megan Fox is always a fan favorite!

Eastern Michigan at Temple (-10.5 and OVER/UNDER 46.5) - Short but sweet this week. Eastern Michigan is terrible and Temple is a cover machine at 6-3-1 on the season. Temple is also undefeated ATS at home this year. This is another game where literally every single number screams for the UNDER. I am taking Temple to win and cover easily and I am taking the UNDER! A 28-7 Temple win makes sense to me.

NC State at North Carolina (-10.5) - I love these rivalry games when you can get a double digit spread. I am experimenting a little bit with this pick so buyer beware. Numbers all point to UNC but ATS numbers favor NC State. N.C. State is fighting to become bowl eligible, has won two straight and is tough against state foes, going 3-0. Here are some of the ATS numbers I like. Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. I think NC State has a chance to win but I definitely think 10.5 points is too many to give away. I am taking NC State to cover!

Florida Atlantic at Arkansas State (-4) - This one is pretty simple for me. Ark State runs for 209.9 yards per game and FAU gives up 187.7 yards per game on the ground. FAU turns the ball over 2.4 times per game, Ark. St. only 1.1 times per game. I love games like this with small spreads. I am taking Arkansas State to win and cover!

Runny Pelvis Picks

Some Shania for Nashville

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3): I’m like a crackhead when it comes to the SEC-I hate it like crazy, but it keeps calling me. I can’t stay away. I’m like Pookie from New Jack City (”Its callin’ me, Scottie. Its callin’ me, man….Scottie I’m gonna die!!!!). Anyway, I’ve accepted my affliction so I’m just going to stick with it. This game is a HUGE rivalry for the Tennessee fans. I think Vandy just has too much to offer. They hate the Vols, and now they have the team to give them a beatdown. I love them at home. The Vols are looking forward to next season. I don’ think they show-up this week. I’m taking Vandy and giving the points.

Air Force at TCU (-20): I’ve loved me some Air Force this year, but TCU just has too much D for them. TCU needs to pound Air Force for the polls, and they should have no problem doing it at home this week. It will be a close cover, but Air Force will not be able to score against this team. I’m taking the Horned Frogs and giving the points.

RPJ $yndicate Arse shot of the weekend!