Yellow Jackets
NCAA Football Preview Spectacular - Celebrating 140 years of College Football
Our most favorite time of year is finally upon us…NCAA FOOTBALL. There really is nothing better. The purpose of this post will be to share our thoughts, ideas, predictions, etc… in 140 different ways as we celebrate 140 years of NCAA Football. Print now because this is some great work bathroom reading. We promise this will occupy your dump time for at least 10-15 minutes.
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In honor of 2009 being the 140th College football season, we are going to make 140 observations, predictions, bets, historical references, Notre Dame jokes, USC homer statements, etc…
2009 NCAA Football Season Predictions, Analysis, Trends and Observations
140 - The number of pounds that Charlie Weis’s left man boob weighs.
More food please!
139 - Adding the numbers equals 13….will be the minimum amount of points Ohio State will lose by to USC on September 12. Yep, you heard it hear first… USC wins by at least two TDs at Columbus.
138 - The number of rushes it took LeGarrette Blount, RB Oregon, to reach 1,008 yards rushing last season. Good for a 7.3 yard average per rush. We are looking for big things out of the Oregon backfield this season. Early season test at Boise State.
137 - 1+3+7=11…USC averaged 86,793 in attendance last year for 11th in the country. We road tripped for the OSU game last year. Let us tell you, USC knows how to party for big games! Great fans. Best Buy had a tent. Their home schedule is weak this year, so the key to their national championship dreams will come down to their road performance with big games in Columbus, South Bend, Berkley and Eugene. Look for USC to be in very close games. Jump on the lines accordingly. We’ll be watching!!
The Trojan Horse will unleash the fury on 9/12!
136 - The number of wins Bill Snyder had as a coach of Kansas State. Sorry Bill, you are old and well past your prime. You will be lucky to have 140 career K State wins by the end of the year.
135 - San Jose State Coach Dick Tomey’s career losses. Dick is actually the 7th winningest active coach right now with a record of 181-135-7. Dick opens the season at USC and at home against Utah. Those 135 career losses will start climbing pretty fast in 2009.
134 - The yards passing per game USC’s D gave up last year. Tops in the nation. Next closest was TCU at 170 tards/game. It will be interesting to see how USC’s D holds up this year. They lost a ton of starters over the offseason. We’ll see how the “rebuilding” goes..the last time this happened was 2007 and they did just fine. See you in Columbus on 9/12!!!!
133 - The number of points scored in 2008 by Missouri Kicker Jeff Wolfert. You know you care about that.
Yes we went there; only RPJ throws love at the kicker!!!
132 - The yards rushing per game Buffalo gained (actually 132.71. Big things are expected out of the Bulls this year. We loved rooting for them last year and will do this same in 2009. Go Bulls!!!! On a sad note, Senior RB James Starks is injured and will miss his senior season.
131 - The number of points TCU’s defense gave up last year, which was good for #2 in the country. Keep reading and you will see the #1 team and their sub-100 point season.
130 - The number of pounds of food Mark Mangino eats every day for breakfast. We love us some Coach Mangino. Kansas is the 4th or 5th best team in the Big 12 but the Conference is stacked. We hope Mangino and Reesing can pull off a big time upset.
Would you bet against this man?
129 - Amount of seasons before Michigan suffered its first 9 loss season. It took Bo Schembechler 7 seasons to lose 9 games. Rich Rodriguez did go 9-4 his second year at West Virginia and that followed a 3-8 debut for the Mounties. Notre Dame in week 2 will be a good indication and a home revenge game. Michigan returns 16 starters from last year and 11 on Offense.
128 - The number of pounds of undigested lard that were sucked out of Charlie Weis’s belly during his botched tummy tuck surgery. We hope the Heart Attack Grill was able to buy some of the lard on the cheap.
127 - Yards per game improvement by Nebraska on defense last season. Their rush defense was the most improved in the nation. Bo Pelini showed he can coach but will he be able to improve on a 9-4 record?
126 - NC State rushing yards per game in 2008. This team was a cover machine last season at 9-2-1. One of the best teams to bet on in the country. Big opening game against Spurrier’s Cocks in week 1 and a revenge game at home.
125 - North Carolina rushing yards per game in 2008. Is this the year Butch Davis’ team breaks out. We are not so sure. He recruits well but he still needs to get past Va. Tech and a nasty, improving Georgia Tech team.
124 - Colorado rushing yards per game. Will the Hawkins father son duo make some noise this year or will the powers that be in the Big 12…Texas and Oklahoma State eat Buffalo burger this season? We think the later.
123 - 1+2+3 = 6 and there were 6 turnovers in the Boise State vs. Oregon game last season. 4 by Oregon and 2 by Boise State. We do not see Masoli throwing three picks in this game. This is one of our two prime time games for opening weekend. Stay tuned for our week 1 predictions.
122 - The number of tackles for loss generated by Oregon for tops in the nation. This team is legit and has a very solid chance of winning the PAC-10. We love or Trojans, but it will be a tall order beating this team in Eugene. If they beat SC, they have to be considered for the national championship game.
Sorry it took this long to throw in some tail!!!
121 - Cincinnati rushing yards per game in 2008. Senior QB Tony Pike is back in 2009 and these city boys put a scare or two into somebody each year. We will know this team early as they open at Rutgers on 9/7/2009 and then head to Oregon State on 9/19/2009. A win at either place will be impressive.
120 - Central Florida’s offensive ranking last season. 120 out of 120. What does this distinction look like you ask? 229.5 yards of total offense per game, 113 yards rushing with a 3.0 yards per carry mark, 116 yards passing per game and 16.6 points per game. On the bright side, they really have no place to go but up.
119 - 1+1+9 = 11 and Tulsa had 11 wins last season, which was the first time a Conference USA team had 11 wins since 2004. The biggest change this offense will incur is under center, as David Johnson is now gone after accounting for 49 touchdowns in 2008. Jacob Bower, last year’s backup, has the edge in the quarterback race, but he is being pushed by Texas transfer G.J. Kinne, and incoming freshman Shavodrick Beaver. The player that emerges with the job will get a terrific opportunity to build a name for himself behind this powerful attack.
118 - Tulane’s average yards rushing per game. How about some Conference USA love? Back to back C-USA news items. Gotta love it!
117 - Kansas State’s Defensive ranking last season. Bill Snyder is a hero but will he leave town as a goat this time around. This is asking for a lot.
116 - Amount of offensive yards Washington State gained against USC last season. Keep reading…Notre Dame did even worse.
115 - Tennessee’s Offensive ranking last year. That was 115 out of 119. An improvement in this number will show Vols fans that Kiffin can coach. We know Monte can but the jury is still out on Lane.
Al Davis versus rabid SEC fans....I pick SEC!
114 - 114 fans showed up to Temple’s Fourth Annual Fan Fest on August 26. No we were not there, we just heard it was definitely 114 fans.
113 -Mississippi State’s offensive ranking last season. Man that SEC is stacked from top to bottom with zero easy games ever. Yeah right!!!!
112 - Centuries that must pass before Notre Dame wins another national title. God told us. Lou Holtz is on crack with his Florida/ND BCS title game prediction this season. How do we bet against this? Holtz should back himself as a prop bet.
111 - Add a 5 to 111 and you get 5,111 passing yards for Graham Harrell last season; the first back to back 5,000 seasons in NCAA history. Texas Tech had a story book season last year and Coach Leach finds new QBs for his system every year. The Red Raiders will not sneak up on anybody this season but they still have talent and might be able to pull off some major upsets. We will find out pretty quickly how good this team is after they travel to Austin on 9/19.
110 - The number of career wins for Nick Saban. He has a career record of 110-50-1, 5th best winning % among active coaches. Saban has talent at BAMA this season but they spanking Utah gave them could provide one long, nasty hangover. Huge first game against Virginia Tech will be telling. Also, keep in mind that Saban has never won ten games back to back. Now combine that with breaking in a new QB and revamped OL and we see trouble ahead.
109 - The amount of yards per game LSU’s defense deteriorated last season. We knew they had QB issues but the Tigers D was terrible. Maybe Les Miles should have taken the Michigan job after all. Lots to work on in Baton Rouge.
108 - Miami (Ohio) average yards rushing per game in 2008. Check out this fantastic team marketing….Fans looking for premium savings and ideal seat location get the best of both worlds by purchasing RedHawk season tickets. Season tickets–including the game against Kentucky– are only $120. Prices are even more affordably priced for Miami faculty and staff ($105), senior citizens ($110), and youth under 18 ($100). What a bargain!!!
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Hi my name is Jenna and I am a Cheerleader for Miami (Ohio). Come see me for only $120! I promise not to disappoint you but I can not say the same for the team.
107 - 107,000 seats. The size of Michigan’s Ann Arbor football stadium. Hopefully they get to see more than 4 wins this season.
106 -Kentucky’s offensive ranking last season. We are seeing a trend here. Why is the SEC the best conference in the country when 5 teams finished worse than 100 in total offense last season.
105 - Number of yards USC Freshman De’Von Flournoy had in their last scrimmage. 105 yards on three catches with 1 TD. This is not one of USC’s 5 star recruits but this kid is tearing up camp and has been even more impressive than Barkley. Put Flourney and RoJo on the field at the same time and zero secondaries will be able to cover these guys. USC rebuilding, yeah right!
104 - Auburn’s Offensive ranking from 2008. We know Gene Chizik has his hands full. Chizik was only 5-19 at Iowa State. Welcome to the SEC Gene!!!
103 - Wake Forest’s offensive ranking in 2008. This stat was shocking but I guess really shows how great their defense was last season. Wake will test itself early as it opens at home against Baylor and Stanford. Two teams on the rise and looking to prove themselves. We will probably stay clear of this team early until we get to see what they have under the hood.
102 - Amount of points Conference USA’s leading scorer scored last season. Any guess as to who it was? RB Bryce Beall of Houston.
101 - Duke’s offensive ranking in 2008. Dukie fans were actually impressed with 4 wins last season under Coach Cutcliffe. At some programs, a four-win season would be considered mediocre or disappointing. But at Duke, the accomplishment earned first-year head coach David Cutcliffe third place in the ACC Coach of the Year voting and helped trigger a change in perception of the Blue Devils. Although Duke fans may be happy, we are not sure where Duke will show improvement this season. A tough ACC schedule (Duke was 1-7 last season in the ACC) and a road game at Kansas might make 4-8 a pipe dream this season.
100 - Yards per game drop in Arizona State’s offense on a per game basis last year. The Sun Devils had a 6 game losing streak at home last season. We think it is time for ASU to send Erickson packing.
99 - Ralph Friedgen has dropped nearly 100 pounds since October with an improved diet and exercise. Kudos to you Coach. Maybe Charlie Weis can learn something from you. Hard work and exercise set a better example then stomach stapling surgery you lazy fat oaf!!!
Can somebody please cut my stomach off please?
98 - The number of Georgia Bulldog wins the last ten years, which is good for best in the SEC. Where is their national title? It certainly will not come this year when Oklahoma State shows this SEC team who is boss this season.
97 - The number of starts by Notre Dame’s Offensive Line. This just shows that experience does not always matter cause Notre Dame still stinks.
96 - 9+6=15 and 15 is Aaron Corp’s jersey number. USC needs this guy under center, not Barkley if they want to make it to another BCS title game. Barkley might be the QB of the future but Corp is the QB of now.
95 - Average yards passing per game for Georgia Tech last year. One of only 4 teams under 100 yards per game. No surprise that Army, Navy and Air Force were the other 3.
94 - Number of times we laughed looking at the following picture….
Caption says it all!!!
93 - The number of points USC’s defense gave up last year. Sick!!! All the sports banter going across the airwaves now is calling this USC D suspect because of how many starters it lost at the end of the year. Coach Carroll faced a similar ”rebuilding” in 2007. Didn’t seem to bother him or the team one bit. OSU will not score more than 14 points on September 12.
92 - 92,000 seats at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.
91 - Amount of yards Notre Dame gained against USC’s defense last year. And people actually think Weis is an offensive genius.
90 - The number of times Jimmy Clausen will be sacked in his career at Notre Dame.
89 - The number of days it took us to write this blog post. Just kidding but not by too much!
88 - Texas A&M rushing yards per game in 2008. We thought Mike Sherman would run first, pass second last season but we were wrong. He had Javorskie Lane, the 300 pound RB and he could still not move the pile. Sherman just names Jerrod Johnson his starting QB but we do not see how there will be much to smile about. By the end of last season, the Aggies had fallen to the bottom of the Big 12 South. They want to make certain that last-place finish was just an aberration, not a reflection of a sagging program. Mike Sherman has already addressed locker room issues that divided last year’s team. This year’s group seems to have bought in. That’s only part of any possible turnaround story. Despite a solid recruiting class, the Aggies are young, lack depth at key positions and may find it difficult to improve last season’s 4-8 record. More competitiveness against Texas and Oklahoma (or even Baylor) would be a sign of progress.
87 - Amount of rushing yards per game USC’s defense gave up last year.
86 -Number of career receptions for Ole Miss hybrid player Dexter McCluster. Dexter is a physical specimen and Ole Miss is going to try and put the ball in his hands 20 times a game. The 5-foot-8 McCluster played at 162 pounds last season, but he’s up to 170 pounds entering this season. He’s incredibly strong for his size and bench-presses 340 pounds and squats more than 400 pounds. This guy is going to be fun to watch.
The Ole Miss faithful are counting on you!
85 - 85,000 seats at Nebraksa’s Memorial Stadium.
84 - Receptions by Eric Decker, WR Minnesota, for tops in the Big-10 last season. Minnesota WR, Eric Decker returns for his senior season. Gopher fans get to enjoy Mr. Decker in their new stadium this season, TCF Bank Stadium, which looks awesome. We will be there when USC comes to town in a few years.
83 - The number of wins by Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel over the last 8 seasons. Optimism is high in Columbus with Pryor under center but this team only returns 38 lettermen, 11 starters and 4 on offense. If OSU can get past USC on 9/12 the might roll undefeated into Happy Valley on 11/7. Hopefully we do not get to witness another Big 10 team in the national title game this decade. We know that end result.
82 - Number of wins USC has over the last 7 seasons to go along with 7 Pac-10 titles, two national championships and end of season top 5 rankings. USC’s dominance has inspired dismissive references to the conference as the “Pac-1″ and the “Lack-Nine” among fans from other regions. A lot of experts are predicting this is the season USC drops a notch. It will all come down to A) Aaron Corp being healthy or B) Matt Barkley’s ability to play college ball. If A is the case then Trojan fans have nothing to worry about. B is the X factor.
Who is going to battle for the Men of Troy this season?
81 - Seconds of fame for the Florida State girls. Slightly more than a minute but less than 2.
80 - The number of STDs that were passed in this picture…
Herpes, check! clap, check! genital warts, check! 77 more times....
79 - Passing yards by Cal QB Nate Longshore against USC last season. Well Nate has moved on and Jeff “Turd Sandwich” Tedford is backing Kevin Riley. Keep in mind, Kevin Riley was 4 for 16 for 59 yards 0 TDs and 1 INT last season against USC. Cal really needs a QB to show up this year if they want to compete in the Pac-10. Jahvid Best is the man but when you can put 8 in the box, he is shut down. We love and hate betting for or against Jeff Tedford’s Bears. He usually burns us and 21 points against Maryland in game #1 is a big number to overcome. We will probably be on the CAL sidelines until we can figure out what this team is really about.
78 - Florida gators defense… out of 78 starts at the three LB positions the last two years, every start was made by a LB that returns this season. The Gators depth and experience on Defense will be sick this season.
77 - Reason #77 to love USC TRojans…
Like we needed 77 reasons.
76 - Nick Howell, OT USC Trojans. Just one of 8 linemen with experience that will protect Corp or Barkley. This is why USC is still ranked in the pre-season top 5 with an inexperienced QB. Offensive line depth is the key to early season trouble games like 9/12 in The Shoe.
75 - This is the 75th anniversary of the Heisman trophy. Will Bradford or Tebow match Archie Griffin as the only two time winner or will Colt McCoy or a darkhouse candidate make a splash like Houston’s Case Keenum. Last year Keenum passed for 5,020 yards, 44 TDs with only 11 picks. Houston and the OVER anyone?
74 - Dan LeFevour’s career passing TDs. Our man crush gets to continue for one more season. The Fever has a brutal early schedule but he should be able to get his points. We love you DAN!!! His 11,702 total yards are the most among any active player, and if he averages 300 yards of offense a game this season (his career average), he’ll end his college tenure ranked third in FBS history in total offense.
73 - USC’s margin of victory of Notre Dame the last two seasons. Thats right folks. The combined score was 76-3. It won’t get any better this year. Claussen cursed himself when he said he would beat USC and the curse lives on.
72 - Combined bowl wins for Middle Tennessee State’s coaching staff. Where else can you get a stat on Middle Tennessee State? If you are not impressed with this then you do not deserve to read on.
71 - The ranking for sacks allowed/game for Texas. They allowed 2 sacks per game and are at the bottom of the pack for D1 teams. It didn’t seem to bother them too much last year-they arguably should have been playing Florida in the title game last year. However, this stat is telling because it may be a sign of trouble for Colt McCoy. They need to impove on this to keep Colt healthy and their teams hopes alive.
70 - Colt McCoy’s career completion percentage. Colt will be this seasons Tim Tebow, meaning he will be the most motivated man in the land. We expect big things from Colt. Potential Heisman winner and BCS title game participant.
69 - Use your imagination…
68 - Butch Lewis, OT USC. Another one of the experienced bunch that the Trojans will march out this season.
67 - You are more than halfway through our reasons and we are running out of reasons.
66 - After USC plays San Jose State in their opener, 66 is the number of games USC’s new linebackers will have played at USC. That is right, Chris Galippo, Michael Morgan and Malcolm Smith have played in 63 games at USC. So even though USC lost 4 LBs to the FIRST ROUND of the NFL draft, their replacements have serious experience.
65 - Todd Reesing TDs the last two seasons. Todd is 20-6 as a starter and Kansas may be 6-0 when Oklahoma comes to town on 10/24.
64 - RPJ Betting Syndicate’s career winning percentage before we started publishing this blog. Blog was a curse but it is fun. Not like we need reasons to watch and bet on NCAA football and stare at hot arse every week.
63 - Not since 1946 (63 years ago) has the top 3 Heisman vote getters returned to play the next season.
62 - 62 minus 1 = 61 and that is Troy’s pre-season USA Today rank. They received 1 vote.
61 - The number of yards New Mexico State improved on defense last season and this is before new Coach DeWayne Walker arrived on campus. Walker can really coach a defense and look for him to turn this program around quickly and launch himself to a better program. They could even be 6-0 or 5-1.
60 - Jimmy Clausen’s completion percentage last season; 60.9% to be exact. As a sophomore last year, Clausen had the third-most prolific passing season in school history. He completed 268 of 440 passes (60.9 percent) for 3,172 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He had the second-best sophomore season by a quarterback in school history, behind only Brady Quinn. Optimism is high in South Bend with 4 seniors on the OL and 10 offensive starters back.
I might be gay but I promise I will beat USC one of these years. I bet my favorite butt floss thong on it!
59 - Boise State is 40-17-2 against the spread in their last 59 home games. The Oregon/Boise State game on September 3 is going to be a battle.
58 - Number of first place votes Florida received in the pre-season AP poll. 58 out of 60 for a record 96.7%. The previous record holder was USC who received 62 out of 65 votes in 2007. USC did not play for the national title that year. Only ten teams that were ranked the pre-season #1 have won the national title. USC was the last team to do it in 2004.
57 -The number of TDs Matt Barkley, USC QB, threw in high school. With Aaron Corp injured and Mitch Mustain sucking, the Trojans season could come down to an 18 year old freshman. This story is worth watching. Will Barkley be able to win at Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon? Not likely.
56 - Tennessee is ranked 56th in the USA Today pre-season poll.
55 - Navy is ranked 55th in the USA Today pre-season poll.
54 - Number of teams that received votes in the AP Pre-season Top 25 poll. Nearly half of the FBS population (54 of 120) received at least one 25th-place vote. The biggest surprise? Colorado, a legit Big 12 North dark horse, got no votes, as in one fewer than Troy.
53 - Navy has 53 wins against the spread in their last 75 road games.
52 - Personal fouls committed last year by Syracuse QB, Greg Paulus as a PG for Duke baseketball. Huh? Yes, you read that right. Syracuse’s starting QB this year played for the Blue Devils for 4 seasons. We know Coach Doug MArrone is excited to be at Cuse but c’mon now, a PG at QB? This will end terribly wrong.
Your Syracuse Orange starting QB....GREG PAULUS!!!!!
51 -Amount of votes Rutgers received in the USA Today top 25 pre-season poll. One thing to remember, Rutgers returns their entire starting offensive line from last season. Rutgers opens at home against Cincy and this will be a big test. Cincy is tough and is changing their D from a 4-3 to a 3-4 so they might not be in game shape on the defensive side of the ball. If Rutgers wins they will be on their way to an easy 3-0 start before traveling to Maryland.
50 -Zero Big 12 teams finished in the top 50 in total defense last year and 9 finished worse than 78. If the Big 12 really wants to pass the SEC in national prominence the conference needs a handful of teams to play D.
49 - Washington Huskies defensive 3rd down percentage was 49 last season. The Huskies brough in Steve Sarkisian and hope a healthy Jake Locker can turn things around. These guys were 0-12 last season and 1-11 ATS. Not much to smile about. The Huskies do start with three home games but they are against LSU, Idaho and The Trojans. They then go to Stanford and Notre Dame and we think Irish eyes will be smiling. Sark has to work miracles to get this team moving in the right direction this season.
48 - Wake Forest is the 48th ranked team in the USA Today preseason poll.
47 - The total number of sacks garnered by VaTech’s D for 2nd in the country behind only GaTech (who knew!?!?!?). VaTech always overacheives and may have the country’s best head coach. He does more with so little than anyone in the country. HUGE opener against Bama. We think they have a very legit shot of beating the Tide outright. We are watahing this line like crazy.
46 - The Central Michigan Chippewas are 30-13-3 against the spread in their last 46 games.
45 - Mark Mangino, Kansas coaches career wins (45-41) and ATS wins (45-35) record. Kansas returns 15 starters and 42 lettermen. Legit Big 12 North title contenders. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!!!
44 - The number of seasons Joe Pa and Bobby Bowden have coached.
43 - Stanford defensive 3rd down conversion percentage in 2008. Jim Harbaugh had his team close to a bowl berth last season. The Cardinals definitely play hard but they do not have the talent to stack up against USC, Oregon and CAL. Their first 5 games in 2009 are favorable so this team might gain confidence with games @ Washington State, @ Wake Forest, and home against San Jose State, Washington and UCLA. 5-0 is possible and 4-1 is a definite possibility.
42 - Home wins Iowa has the last 8 years. Hawkeyes are 42-9 over this span. Too bad they have Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State all on the road this year. Schedule is likely to impede their Big-10 championship aspirations.
41 - Average yards rushing for SMU last year, which was the lowest in the nation by almost 30 yards per game. SMU averaged a staggering 2.29 yards per rush. Also, 41 inches is Taylor Mays’ vertical leap.
40 - This is to pay tribute to one of college football’s and our country’s all time greats, Mr. Pat Tillman. He wore #40 for the Arizona Cardinals (#42 for ASU) and he gave his life for our country. Thanks, Pat.
"Rangers Lead the Way"
39 - Amount of points Miami scored against Florida State last season in a 39-41 loss. Miami has some insane talent on defense but they open their 2009 schedule at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Va Tech and against Oklahoma. This team might easily be the best 0-4 team ever. These 4 teams won 40 games last year. Randy Shannon might not be able to improve much on his 12-13 career record with this kind of scheduling.
38 - The number of TDs for Oklahoma State players Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. This Oklahoma State team is explosive with explosive probably being an understatement. Georgia rolls into Stillwater on 9/5 and the Big 12/SEC conference debate will be settled in week 1. All three of the Cowboys’ losses last season were to teams ranked 1, 2 or 3. With their core coming back this season, the Cowboys will be a tough matchup for any team this season.
Zac and Dez = Best QB/WR duo in the nation!
37 - Number of wins by former Missouri QB Chase Daniel over the last 4 years. Chase is gone and the team only returns 9 starters. Coach Gary Pinkel has 22 wins the last two seasons, which ranks third to USC and Okahoma but we think Illinois will expose this team in week 1.
36 -Last season, 5 of Jeff Demps’s 7 rushing TDs were for longer than 36 yards. His lone reception was 61 yards. Demps is actually faster than Percy Harvin and Percy had a run of 15 TDs in 15 games. Demps might be too small to really carry the load but he will always be a factor when he steps on the field.
35 -The minutes per game TCU had the ball (34.55.62 to be exact) for tops in the nation. Solid numbers. They play outstanding D. They won $ for us quite a bit last year. We will be watching them again this year. Go Horned Frogs!!!!!
34 - The national ranking for tunrovers forced by Bama. They forced 24 turnovers for a .31 turnover ratio. That is freakin’ terrible!!! We think Bama is in the top 5 for most overhyped teams going into the season. We’ve heard a ton of talk about the Tide having the best D in the country. Eventhough they have a cakewalk for a schedule, don’t believe the hype!!!
33 - Michigan’s bowl streak that ended last season.
32 - The number of wins Texas has since winning the national championship 4 years ago. Texas has not even played for a Big 12 title during this time.
31 - The amount of points Houston gave up on defense per game last season. The defense this year might play 6 freshmen. Remember folks….Houston and the OVER, Houston and the OVER, Houston and the OVER. Say it three times before you go to bed every night. Also, Washington State’s average margin of defeat last season. Can you say Coach on the hot seat? We can!
30 - The age of Clemson’s Offensive Coordinator, Billy Napier. Dabo Swinney will have his hands full this year. Clemson will disappoint again. Phrase of the piece = Have his hands full. Full of what we wonder?
29 - “I’ve never seen so much optimism,” said columnist Rick Cleveland, a Mississippi native who has covered sports at the Jackson Clarion-Ledger for 29 years. It has been 46 years since Ole Miss won the SEC. To put things into perspective. 46 years ago there were zero African american players in the SEC and Steve Spurrier was a freshman.
28 - The number of football national championship Princeton has won, the all-time leader.
27 - Stan Parrish’s current winless streak as a head coach. Stan was Kansas State’s coach before Bill Snyder and now takes over a Ball State team that was 12-2 last season. How the hell did this guy get a job? Probably because Muncie, IN could never be confused with San Diego or any SEC city.
26 - Road wins by TCU over the last 6 season, which is better than both Florida and Oklahoma. TCU even beat Oklahoma on the road in 2005. TCU has 5 ten win seasons the last 7 seasons and they are 30-2 in games when they hold opponents under 333 yards. Both losses were to Utah.
25 - Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss RB. Best RB you have never heard of. Has career stats of 4,287 yards and 36 touchdowns. If he repeats his three year average he will go down stat wise as one of the 5 best RBs of all time.
24 - Number of seasons Nevada Coach Chris Ault has patrolled the sidelines for the Wolf Pack. He is 193-84-1 over his career and returns 14 starters for his 25th season. Ault is the 6th active winningest coach in the country. The Wolf Pack open at Notre Dame in what could be an awesome week 1 upset. We can dream.
23 - Notre Dame’s pre-season AP rank. We think AP voters are literally on crack. Don’t do meth!
22 - Tribute to Runny’s favorite player of all time…Emmitt Smith, RB Florida Gators.
21 - The number of losses Charlie Weis has in 4 years as head coach of Notre Dame. More than 5 per season. The number of losses Ty Willingham had as head coach of ND was 15 after three seasons. Charlie is no better than Ty and of course he is ten thousand times fatter.
20 - Days until Week 1 of the NFL season is over. We bet NFL games too so get ready for a busy weekend.
19 - The 19th day of September is the day Lane Kiffin brings his Vols to the Swamp. Look for Urban Meyer to not only pummel the Vols but to run up the score as much as possible. Remember, Kiffin accused Meyer of recruiting violations this year. We know what Meyer will do when disrespected. Just ask Georgia.
18 - The number of starters Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech team returns this season. GT was 9-4 last season and was blown out by LSU in their bowl game. However, Paul Johnson’s triple option offense showed off in some impressive games and we look for them to improve on last year’s season in 2009. GT we are watching you.
17 - Iowa State’s current road losing streak. The longest in the nation. Kent State on 9/19 is the first opportunity to bust the streak. Also, the number of games the Pac-10 and SEC have played against each other since 2000 and the Pac-10 LEADS the series 10 to 7. Interesting that the SEC’s label as the best conference in football is 3 games under .500 versus the Pac-1, oops, Pac-10.
16 -Jarrett Brown, QB West Virginia. Will Brown be able to fill in for Pat White? Brown was White’s understudy for the last three years so he has learned from one of the best. Brown is 6′4″ and 223 pounds and wants to be the man in Morgantown. Big East is weak this year so maybe Brown can pull a Tee Martin and replace a legend and carry WVU to the title game.
15 - Tim Tebow. As much as we hate the Gators and Tim Tebow, you can not overlook them. Tebow has not lost since his Ole Miss debacle last season and his immortal words are now permanently displayed at the Swamp. Tim can elevate his elite NCAA status to legendary status with another BCS title and/or Heisman. SEC fans look out.
14 - Boise State’s pre-season AP rank. This is the highest ranking by a non-BCS team this year.
13 - We are superstitious and will not mention any teams or players at this spot.
12 - Colt McCoy. The man who beat Oklahoma and did not play Florida for the national title. McCoy spent last season playing second fiddle in the Big 12 to Oklahoma and Sam Bradford. We have a feeling that this is Colt’s year. Top to bottom we think Texas is a better team (remember last season) and Colt has extra motivation. If they run the table with their schedule, we think they are better than Florida and will beat them in the BCS final.
Colt + Undefeated Season = Heisman
11 - The number of years the BCS has been in existence. This system needs to be changed ASAP. Fans want a playoff, the players want a playoff and we say lets start with an 8 team playoff. Enough of this crap.
10 - The number of seniors on Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina team. Steve is 7-11 since 2007 and hired 6 new coaches for this season. South Carolina plays 8 teams that went to bowl games this season. They don’t make Steve Spurrier teams like they used to. The SEC caught up to Steve really fast.
9 - Number of TDs thrown by UCLA QBs last season. And Neuheisel thinks a redshirt QB will fix his offense. The joke will be on him!
8 - The number of starters Penn State returns to a team that went to the Rose Bowl. Big Ten is wide open this year. Ohio State will be down, Penn State will be down, Michigan is still down. There are lots of opportunities for a surprise Big Ten winner. Iowa and Illinois have the early edge for dark horse contender.
7 - Notre Dame has lost 7 in a row to USC. That’s the longest losing streak for ND against anyone since losing eight straight vs. Michigan State from 1955-63. You know our opinion on ND this season.
6 - The number of secondary NCAA violations committed by Vols Coach Lane Kiffin. All this before the season even started. Welcome to the SEC Kiffin. You thought working for Al Davis was hard, try playing in the SEC and in front of 100,000 fans. Will Kiffin be able to turn it around or will he continue the mediocrity?
5 - The amount of teams the Big 12 put in the top 25 in the final AP poll. SEC only had 4. The SEC’s hype as the most dominant conference in the nation was challenged last year and will be challenged again this year.
4 - The amount of offensive linemen that started for Oklahoma last year that are no longer on the team. Oklahoma is the “bettor beware” team of 2009. Almost every single poll has Oklahoma in the top 3. Remember Georgia last year? The “so-called” experts picked Georgia #1 in many polls and we know the story. The reason? Changes in the O-line. Last year Georgia had an inexperienced starting OL and this year Oklahoma only returns one starter on their OL. That is right. Oklahoma is replacing 4 OL starters. Top that off with the departure of two starting WRs from last year and you can see where this is going. Oklahoma will definitely be a favorite pick for a lot of bettors but we are saying be very, very careful. Texas will take this team out and we are expecting Oklahoma to finish the season with 3-4 losses. The Sooners are vulnerable. On a side note, Penn State graduated 3 Big Ten starting OL and Oregon lost its All American Center and starting left tackle. This cases are not as extreme as Oklahoma but they are worth mentioning.
3 - The SEC has won three straight NCAA titles. Not since the AP started polling in 1936, has one conference won the title 4 years in a row.
2 - Taylor Mays’ number. The best college football player to step on the field this season. 6′3″ 230 pounds and a near 4.2 40 time. INSANE!!!! Look for Mays to run the defense and play closer to the line this year. 4 LBs went to the pros last year and 2009 is the year of Mays! Dark horse Heisman candidate if he can make some big plays and score TDs on returns. Also, the folks in Columbus are talking about Pryor’s supposed 4.3 40 yard time. Well guess who is the one player that ran Pryor down from behind last year? Mr. Mays!
Not in my house!!!
1 -Texas will be the #1 team in the country when all games are played this season.
We hope we provided you with some good bathroom reading. Stay tuned for our week 1 predictions. Gotta love this time of year!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
NCAA Football Free Winning Bowl Picks and Hot Chicks: Games for 12/31/2008 and Tribute to Keyra
Our records are as follows:
RPJ = 2-6 (1-1 yesterday)
RPJ Math = 9-7 (1-1 yesterday)
Flash = 2-1 (no action yesterday)
Runny = 5-5 (1-0 yesterday)
Some business to discuss…
1) Join our mailing list. We will be coming at you with special contests for cold hard cash and prizes. NCAA hoops should be the first event.
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4) This is a serious one….We were just notified by one of our readers that Sportsbook.com is not sending him his winnings and not telling him why. He thinks the U.S. government is cracking down. If you have a sportsbook.com account, try and get your money out ASAP or at least give them a call to find out if you are impacted like our friend. We do not want you to miss one of our big winning streaks and certainly want to keep our gambling brothers and sisters in the know.
5) If you have not done so yet, try out Bodog for your betting needs. We use them and we have never had any issues. Here is an ad for a 10% bonus.
We needed to invoke the spirit of Keyra Augustina and no better place to do it than on New Year’s so we could all celebrate the end of the year with one of the greatest asses of all time.
Air Force Versus Houston (-4 and OVER/UNDER 66)
RPJ is taking Air Force to cover and here is why: Air Force already won this game once when they were not supposed to and looks like the “experts” are asking them to be underdogs once again. Air Force has lost two in a row str8 up and ATS but they were against TCU and BYU and we all know Air Force is neither of those schools. They were on a 5 game win streak before that. Houston lost to Rice in their last game and is 3-1 str8 up and 2-2 ATS in their last 4 games. We know Houston can score in bunches but Air Force already played them and plays a ball control style of offense; one that is perfectly suited for keeping the ball away from Houston. Throw in the fact that there is a 17 turnover difference between their turnover margins (Air Force +12 and Houston -5) and this is where the game will be won. The ATS numbers:
Air Force
Houston
RPJ Math takes Air Force
This pic should be in the Louvre!
Pitt versus Oregon State (-1 and OVER/UNDER 51)
RPJ Math selects Oregon State
Boston College versus Vanderbilt (+3.5 and OVER/UNDER 40.5)
RPJ is taking BC to win and cover and here is why: This game is in Nashville so that clearly favors Vanderbilt but this is the same Vandy team that lost in Nashville to Duke. After a fast start, Vandy is now 1-6 in their last 7 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Vandy will be pumped up though because this is their first bowl game in 26 years and they have not won one in 50 years. Vandy now is running a QB smorgasbord of suckiness. We do not know who will play or when and the last time out Vandy threw 3 QBs out there. This will not bode well against a BC team that led the nation with 26 INTs. BC has won 8 straight bowl games and looks to continue with their streak. They did lose to Va. Tech in the ACC title game after their Frosh QB was overwhelmed but the Vandy D is nowhere close to The Hokies’ D. Prior to the ACC title game, BC was 4-0 str8 up and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games. We do not think this game will be close.
RPJ Math shows no real advantage. Vanderbilt covers this game 58.3% of the time and BC 56.6% of the time. RPJ Math has no pick.
Minnesota versus Kansas (-8.5 and OVER/UNDER 59)
RPJ is taking Kansas to win and cover and here is why: Mark Mangino and Todd Reesing. We love the Fat Man and Doug Flutie II. Kansas wins the travel advantage and is 500 miles closer than Minny. Kansas is 2-2 str8 up and ATS in their last 4 games but did upset Missouri their last time out. Minnesota has been terrible since blowing their game to Northwestern in one of the biggest lapses of the season. Minny has lost 4 in a row (3 at home) and is 1-3 ATS in their last 4. Minny even lost 55-0 to Iowa in their last game and now gets to play against a well coached team with a spark plug for a QB. This might be the largest margin of victory of the bowl season. Check out these Kansas ATS numbers:
RPJ math shows no real advantage. Minnesota should cover the spread in this game 63.6% of the time and Kansas 63.1% of the time. RPJ Math has no pick!
LSU versus Georgia Tech (-4 and OVER/UNDER 53)
RPJ is picking Georgia Tech to win and cover and here is why: This game is in Georgia so Tech clearly wins the travel advantage. LSU is a mess. The Tigers have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6. The one win was a miracle comeback against Troy. Georgia Tech is hot right now and Paul Johnson has this team peaking. The Yellow Jackets have won 3 of 4, are 2-1-1 ATS in their last 4 and recently beat Georgia in a great comeback and MIami. This game might get really ugly, really fast. You know Tech wants to pound another SEC team and LSU wants to go run and hide. The ATS numbers:
LSU
Georgia Tech
RPJ Math selects Georgia Tech. This is one of the largest mismatches of the bowl season. LSU covers in this game 18-20% of the time and Georgia Tech covers 75% of the time.
Flash Flash parlay of the year: If your true degenerate side is coming out today then I have a parlay for you…..BC, Kansas and Georgia Tech. I love these three games and have them parlayed, locked, loaded and ready for action. Teaser can’t hurt either.
RPJ Video of the day. Of course we had to include the original Keyra shake her booty video. This think is mesmorizing and we think her ass would end every debate, argument and war in the world. Just show this video every time somebody has a dispute of any sort.
Hope you enjoyed the Keyra tribute!
Flash and Runny!
9/20/2008 - Week 4 Free NCAA Football Picks - Improving but Ready for Another Breakthrough!!!
First things first. Our performance has been less than stellar….RPJ is now 9-11-1. Flash is 3-1 and Runny is 6-6. We clearly want to make money and we are not pleased and will not make any excuses like a terrible Kansas line for a push and two half point losses already on the season…..but who is checking. We also changed our blog from RPJ Syndicate to RPJ $yndicate to invoke the gods of the almighty dollar.
Thanks for all of the advice and for your support or knocks. Our models take into account everything you can think of under the sun and then some so we feel confident we will turn this around in no time.
Our rules…We bet every game we put on here and at the lines we post them. Lately we know we have shared the pain but some serious cash is right around the corner. We are going to throw out a lot of games this week, including our first great debate game. RPJ $yndicate picks are picks that pass 100% of our combined models, Runny picks are picks that pass his models but do not pass Flash’s models and Flash’s picks are picks that pass Flash’s models but do not pass Runny’s models. Simple enough. On with the picks….after the obligatory arse shots. We had a request for more Keyra videos and who are we to deny you of that pleasure. Enjoy Mr. SEC lawyer friend….
And one nice pic of Keyra can not hurt either….
And just to continue with the theme here….Miss Angelina Jolie. We wish the cameraman focused a little more to the left and it was raining outside but hey we do not live in a perfect world.
Last but not least…Anybody have a problem with Playboy? We do not think so.
Yes we will still make picks this week and here we go….
RPJ $yndicate Picks
Temple at Penn State (-28.5) - Penn State helped us out last week for one of our wins. Not sure it was more about Penn State or more about how terrible Syracuse was but a win is a win and for us right now that is all that matters. Penn State is going for its 26th straight win against The Owls. The Nittany Lions (3-0) are among the nation’s top 25 in both passing (273.0 ypg) and rushing (263.0 ypg), resulting in the country’s eighth-ranked total offense and fourth-highest scoring team. Temple is coming off two crushing defeats, one in OT to UCONN and the other on a hail mary pass to Buffalo as time expired. Here are the ATS numbers:
Temple
Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Owls are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
Penn State
NittanyLions are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
NittanyLions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Head-to-Head
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Temple has some impressive ATS numbers, as does Penn State, but what it really comes down to is Temple can not compete in Penn State or against Penn State. No way, no how. The last two years or so when Temple was putting up these impressive ATS numbers they were also losing to Penn State at home 31-0 in 2007 and in Happy Valley 47-0 in 2006. Temple will not cover, NO WAY, NO HOW!!! Take Penn State to dominate this game and win by 30 plus points.
LSU at Auburn (+2.5) - This is definitely the game of the week and ESPN Game Day canceled their Arizona State show to move to Auburn after The Sun Devil’s choke job last week. Auburn is coming off a ridiculous game that they won 3-2. Words can not describe how awful and terrible the offenses were. If Auburn can not score against Mississippi State then how the hell are they going to score against LSU. LSU has had hurricane on the mind and really has needed to get games in to break in their QBs and offense. Auburn has a top rated defense as well so if LSU is not ready to play on offense this score could be lower than the 3-2 we saw last week. The ATS numbers:
LSU
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in September.
Auburn
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in September.
Under is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 conference games.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head-to-Head
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Yep. you guessed it. We are mixing it up this week and throwing in our pick as an over/under pick. Right now the O/U line is at 37.5 and we love that number. These offenses are not ready to play but the defenses are. Remember two years ago…LSU at Auburn….final score was 7-3 in favor of Auburn. Take the under (37.5) in this game.
Wake Forest at Florida State (-5) - This game is pretty simple to see for us. Wake Forest has actually tested itself this season with a road win at Baylor and a home win versus Ole Miss. Baylor is impressive in the fact that Wake traveled and won in the state of Texas for the first time ever and Ole Miss is impressive simply because it is an SEC school. We know absolutely nothing about Florida State because they chose to beat up on 1-AA schools. And yes we refuse to call them anything but 1-AA schools. The ATS numbers:
Wake Forest
Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Florida State
Seminoles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Head-to-Head
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
We think this game favors Wake. They are tougher and more tested. Wake also has a two game winning streak going against the Seminoles and that shows us that Wake knows how to win in Tallahassee. We think this game will be close and physical and do expect Wake to win in the end. The fact that we get 5 points makes it all the better. Take Wake and the points.
Notre Dame at Michigan State (-9) - Our favorite battering ram. Of course Notre Dame kicked us in the arse last week. Damn early turnovers killed Michigan. Well Charlie Weis put all his eggs in the Michigan basket. He talked about beating them all off season and observers say he had more emotion and was more prepared for last week’s Michigan game than any game he has ever coached. You know what that means….let down city. Charlie also got knocked on his fat ass and hurt his knee. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Look at the fat walrus fall….
Michigan State is not a team you can overlook. They are physical, run well and have a great coach. We know Notre Dame shaves their Kuntz and if you do not believe us then click this sentence. The ATS numbers:
Notre Dame
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Michigan State
Spartans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. INDEP.
Head-to-Head
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
We think this is a heavily overrated Irish team. Barely beating SDSU and stomping a depleted, young Michigan team in the infancy of a completely new offense does not impress us at all. MSU is the much better team. They roll at home. Take MSU -9.
Runny Versus Flash - The Great Debate Game
Georgia (-7) at Arizona State - Well it was bound to happen and it only took until Week 4 but Runny and Flash are split on this game. We are not going to bet this game because we are split on what is going to happen. However, we know our readers want to know what is going to happen in this game because it is the game of the week. This game is important on many levels and especially for the Pac-10 versus SEC feud. The Pac-10 laid an egg last week, especially against Mountain West foes and the Mt. West is far removed from SEC competition. Tennessee went to UCLA and got pummeled by a bad UCLA team that went to BYU and lost 59-0. Yup 59-0. Georgia was the pre-season #1 and many predicted them to be national champion. If Georgia is to live up to the hype, they have to go on the road to Arizona State and win convincingly. Amazing tidbit….this is the first time Georgia has travelled west of the Mississippi River since……….1960. 1960!!!!!! Are you freakin kidding us?!?! On top of that, this is the furthest The Dawgs have traveled in the regular season since…..1967. What the F? The SEC is by far the worst traveling conference in all of college football. It can not even be argued. Here are the ATS numbers before we get into our debate:
Georgia
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Arizona State
Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in September.
Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Flash Flash saysthat Georgia has a lot to prove and is not coming off of a look ahead game even though they did not play well against South Carolina. Arizona State played the look ahead game and flat out lost and that will be tough to stomach. Arizona State has one big flaw and that is they struggle against physical teams. USC destroyed them last year and literally bloodied Rudy Carpenter. We remember the blood.
Texas beat Arizona State bad and even Arizona, which is not known for much but is well coached on defense almost beat them before losing 20-17. Last week to UNLV, Arizona State ran for 3.6 yards per carry, lost the turnover battle, lost the time of possession battle, lost the 3rd down conversion and 4th down conversion battle and blew a ten point 4th quarter lead. What does that translate into?…..Not being tough enough. I think the ATS numbers speak for themselves also. You will have to wait and see what Runny thinks but I think every sign but one points to Georgia. Georgia does not know how to travel and the SEC does not travel well. That scares the hell out of me. However, in this case, ASU fields a bunch of pussies and Georgia should roll through them in a big statement game. Georgia wins and covers!!!! Side bar….When asked about dropping out of the top 25, Dennis Erickson responded “I don’t know if we should have been in there to start with.” Way to inspire confidence in your team coach.
Runny SaysGeorgia is the most overrated team in the Top 25. Yeap - THE most overrated. I don’t buy the hype at all. No doubt they have studs on both sides of the ball. However, their O-Line is ATROCIOUS. No way they can win the SEC with that line. No way. And, there is no way they travel 1,000 miles to Zona and dominate a stout D. As we noted above, this is the first time they have traveled West of the Mississippi since 1960 and the furthest they traveled since 1967. This cannot be overstated. As also noted, SEC teams do not travel out of state very well. This also cannot be overstated. Why is that?
The reason, I feel, is that SEC schools do not travel well because they purposely don’t do it. They are not used to it, so when a big game comes a good distance from home, they fold. Pretty much every SEC team loads up on cupcake schools at home like SouthEastCentralWestCrenshaw Louisiana State and think that establishes college football supremacy. I don’t buy it, and neither will ASU. Despite what they are saying in Athens, Geogia is looking past this game. They are smack dab in the middle of a tough conference schedule. Take that and the fact that they have to travel 1,000 miles means Georgia is in trouble.
(SIDE NOTE: As you can imagine, in our travels to various sporting events around this great country of ours we often run into complete degenerates that often have the same interests we do: gambling and handicapping. Some of our readers know our friend, Maury the Wig, who graces our presence during NCAA hoops season. Well, at the USC-OSU game last weekend, we had the pleasure of meeting a fellow by the name of Magic Rat. Imagine being at the biggest regular season college game of the past 10 years and meeting a guy in SoCal wearing cut-off jean shorts, drinking piss warm PBR’s and bitching about teams that were not OSU or USC. Rat was by himself, bitching about the SEC and we found him to be a pure genius. He is a hater and just seemed bash the popular team at the moment. Anyway, we immediately extended the invite to contribute to our blog. He accepted, but we haven’t heard from him since. Hopefully he will grace us with his presence. Stay tuned…we have no idea if he will remember us).
Granted, ASU sucked it something awful last week against UNLV. However, I think it was a look past game. They knew who was coming this week and they got ahead of themselves. Coach Erickson is a good coach. He knows how to motivate. He will turn it around. They may not win, but they can cover 7 points. I’m riding Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils and taking the 7 points.
Flash Flash Picks (3-1 on the season) and the rule of 28
Seems like all my picks have 28 point spreads. Here goes:
Wyoming at BYU (-28) - BYU is coming of a total decimation of UCLA in very impressive fashion and continuing with the nation’s longest winning streak. BYU has the toughness and wants to make it into the BCS title picture. Some points to think about…Last week, the Cougars rolled up 521 total yards even though no individual player had more than 110 yards from scrimmage. The Cougars forced four turnovers and allowed nine rushing yards on 16 carries in handing UCLA its first shutout loss since 2001. Do not doubt this team for a second. 28 points does not scare me. BYU wins and covers convincingly!!!
Rice at Texas (-28) - Good things typically happen for Texas when it meets Rice. The Longhorns, who have won nine straight games over the Owls, are 37-1 against them since 1966 to improve to 68-21-1 in the all-time series, which dates to 1914. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Rice Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Texas wins and covers easily!!!
Runny Pelvis (6-6 on the season)
VaTech at UNC (-3) - UNC shocked me last week with their dominating win over Rutgers in Jersey. Pretty damn impressive. Butch Davis has completely turned that program around. He has done an excellent job of recruiting and it is starting to show. Props to him and that team. However, the Hokies have a great coach, too, and a very established program. Frank Beamer knows how to run a team. Despite the fact that they have looked bad this year and lost their opener to East Carolina, I think they cover in this one. I love the points. Some facts: Tech is 10-1 ATS on the road against opponents they beat the year before, Tech is 12-2 in their lined road openers and UNC is 2-8 as Favorites of 6 points or less. VaTech covers and wins outright.
Miss St. at GaTech (-7.5) - Miss St scrapped last week against Auburn. Impressive? Not to me. Their schedule has been a joke: the lost to LaTech and beat SE LA. That’s right-SE LA!!!! Tech, on the other hand played J’Ville St, BC and VaTech. Much more impressive to me. Paul Johnson is a great coach and within two years, he will have GaTech competing for a BCS title. They aren’t there yet, but I think they are the much better team here. Also, Miss St is 1-6 ATS in their games immediately following Auburn. That says to me that they blow their loads against Auburn. Bad timing this week. I’m taking GaTech -7.5.
Iowa at Pitt (+1) - This line says a lot about how Pitt’s season is going. With all the pre-season hype and the studs they have on this team, no way Pitt should be an underdog in this game. However, after an opening loss to Bowling Green and not destroying Buffalo, Pitt finds themselves sucking it. They haven’t covered all year, and they won’t this week. Iowa has a solid D (allowing a Nation’s best only 2.7 points per game) and they beat their bitter rival last week. We like them here, too. Facts: Pitt is 1-6 ATS at home against a team .600 or better under Dave Wannstadt. Enough said for me. Take Iowa -1.
Central Michigan at Purdue (O/U: 64.5) - You readers know that we love us some Dan LaFevour. He is the man!! He knows how to run wild and throw-up some points. However, so does Curtis Painter and Purdue. I love he MAC and I researched this game more than any other this week. Honestly, I cannot figure out who will cover (at posting time, Purdue is giving 3). So, I’m not picking a team. I’m taking the game. Both teams can throw-up massive amounts of point. I love the over in this. Take the OVER 64.5.
Troy at Ohio State (-20.5) - OSU is fresh off the drubbing they received at the hands of SC last weekend. They were completely over matched and dejected by halftime. Now they come home with their tails between their legs and looking to salvage their program and self-respect. Beanie Wells is out, and there has been no decision on who will start at QB. If Tressel is smart, he will go with Pryor for the rest of the season. We watched him in person last week and think he is every bit as good as advertised. He needs to play. However, I think Tressel is still going to play him in spots. I think this is a mistake. This strategy barely beat Ohio. Troy is a MUCH better team than that. They play good D and they smell blood. Facts: Troy is 9-2 in their last 11 road games and OSU is 0-5 at home against non-conference opponents who are coming of a straight-up win. I think OSU wins, but Troy can keep it within 20.5.
Bama at Ark (+8.5) - HUGE SEC battle!! I can’t wait to watch this game. Both coaches left the NFL under high scrutiny. Both have excellent NCAA coaching histories. Bama is stacked and had, in my opinion, the best recruiting class in the country. Julio Jones is a future NFL star and an immediate difference make. Ark does not have that type of player, but they can still play. Both teams will be geeked for this game. What will give? I say Ark covers. Facts: The Dog in this series is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 match-ups, and Ark is 7-1 as underdogs off a non-conference game vs. an opponent off double digit straight-up win. Due to hurricane Ike, Ark is rested and this is the game they have had circled all year. I think they get a huge emotional edge at home. I’m taking the points and riding Ark +8.5.
Ball State at Indiana (-3) - I will be heading to this game and tailgating like a madman. This is a HUGE rivalry for the great state of Indiana. Both teams will be fired-up. I can’t wait!! Should be shootout, but I think Ball State covers. Facts: IU is 6-1-1 against the MAC and 6-1 at home against an opponent off of back-to-back straight-up ATS wins. This favors IU immensely and give that they are in the Big 10, they should blow Ball State out. However, they have had some turmoil this season (Middleton suspension) and they have not looked that great. Balls State is hot, and I can guarantee you that have had this game circled on their calendars since they were pummeled by Rutgers in last year’s final game. Nate Davis is a stud who leaves it all on the field every game. I’m taking Ball State +3.
Florida at TENN (+7.5) - THE #2 game of the week. Another HUGE SEC match-up. These teams hate each other and it is typically a good game. The ATS numbers scream take Tenn: Tenn is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 match-ups and Fla is 2-6 in their last 8 September games. However, the key to me to this game is that Florida is coming off the bye. This is huge. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They will be ready. Remember, this is the same Tenn team that lost to a terrible UCLA that was crushed by BYU last week. Tenn is overrated. This spread is high because Vegas knows Tenn is bad. With the ATS numbers, the spread should not be this high. I’m taking Fla -7.5.
Enjoy the picks and feel free to make comments, tell us we suck and cost you your house or tell us what hot chicks you want to see of feel free to send us an email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com.
Flash and Runny
P.S no idea why this darn blog bolded everything but this is not a beauty contest. Also, we just saw Jeff Tedford and he was eating a turd sandwich.
NCAA Football Week 10 Picks: From the Outhouse to the Penthouse
The Suicidal Tendancies said it best:
“The penthouse or the outhouse? Seems like an easy decision to me. So what we’re all thinkin’ about right now is what we’re talkin’ about, what we’re talkin’ about is what we’re thinkin’ about, and that’s the whole point: you should think before you talk. So where we’re at right now is a place that we want to go: a little bit of help. See: everyday, everywhere you go, people do stupid things. Three hundred and sixty five days out of the year, people not thinkin’. People that have the ability to think, that aren’t thinkin’. So what we want to do is nominate one day. Call it International Don’t Be Stupid Day. Now what this is gonna do is be a little reminder, maybe we could wear a pin, maybe you could send a tape to somebody, and when they start to do somethin’ you say, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there partner. Today is Don’t Be Stupid Day, so you can’t do that.”
Last week was plain old stupid and we are going to rise from the outhouse to the penthouse this week and in the coming weeks with our Stupid Day behind us. After 10 weeks we are 31-30 overall, 3-3 with Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal bet) and up 1 unit. Yes this record makes us sick and we just puked in our mouthes writing those numbers. It is tough to go through some losing weeks and in 9 weeks we have only had 2 down weeks. We feel your pain because we always bet what we write and bet the lines we post.
We are not going to sit here and make excuses. You all saw that during the same weekend we went 2-8 in NCAA picks we went 5-0 in the NFL. Picks will go up and down but we know our system picks consistent winners over the course of the season and takes advantage of the mecca that is called Bowl Season. And now with the picks…..
Clean Sweep Games - These our games where we find teams that have a statistical advantage over their opponent and by statistical advantage we mean that the opponent is not better in any of the areas we track. We track rushing offenses, 3rd down conversions, rushing defenses, defensive 3rd down conversions and turnover ratio. Well this is what we publically say because we have some other secret SAUCE stats that we keep to ourselves.
My baby got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce ….
That’s some funky lemonade you got going there babe
The picks were funky last week but we know a weekend where we crush it again is right around the corner cause we have the Special Sauce.
1 - Clemson (-16.5) @ Duke - Clemson dominates Duke across the board and we won with a Va Tech team at Duke a few weeks back. Duke is really bad, not Notre Dame bad, but bad. Ha ha. We love ripping the Notre Dame Quivering Irish (stay tuned for a special write up on the Navy/Notre Dame game - this gets its own blog). Clemson is going to run all over the Blue Devils and embarass them. Two points to consider if you are squeamish…Home team is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Duke. We think some other stats are more important like Tigers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Devils are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 home games. Blue Devils are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. AND OUR FAVORITE…Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Tigers maul the Blue Devils. Everybody knows devils are red, c’mon now. Clemson wins and covers!!!
2 - South Carolina @ Arkansas (-4.5) - South Carolina can not stop the run and they certainly have never stopped McFadden…he ran for 219 yards in 2006 and 187 yards in 2005. Now with Felix Jones also in the backfield averaging 8.8 yards a carry…the Game Cocks are in trouble. Spurrier now is tinkering with his offense and QB and we think that means trouble. Arkansas QB, Casey Dick, suffered a concussion last week and was replaced by Nathan Emert who filled in adequately. As we said this game is about running. Arkansas runs for 288 yards a game and South Carolina gives up 169. This is going to be a long day for South Carolina. Arkansas covers and wins!!!
Bye Bye Birdie Games
“Bye Bye Birdie
I’m gonna miss you so;
Bye Bye Birdie,
Why’d you have to go?
If you read and follow college football you know that BCS conference teams coming off a bye are 20-8 against the spread. We like two of these teams who are playing at home. Bye bye road teams, thanks for playing.
3 - Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (-2.5) - The entire nation felt the Hokies heartbreak last Thursday night in a brutal home loss to BC. Now the Hokies must travel to Atlanta to face a Georgia Tech team that is rested, playing at home and on national tv. In other words this has heartbreak city and major let down written all over it. Georgia Tech has a punishing ground attack and one of the best defensive schemes in the country. The Hokies have one of the worst offenses in college football. This game will likely start on even footing but G. Tech will wear down the Hokies by the end of the game. This game will be a beatdown if Glennon plays. Georgia Tech wins and covers!!!
4 - Texas A and M @ Oklahoma (minus 21) - We are not afraid of the points. Kansas easily defeated A and M on the road and Oklahoma will not have any problem at home. The Aggies players know they are playing for a lame duck coach after Coach Fran’s email booster incident. Oklahoma is coming off the bye and looking to continue its push for the BCS title game. Sooners win in a blowout!!!
The Pimp Hand Games
Yeah bitch I got my Now and Later gators on
I’m bout to show you how my pimp hand is way strong
Your dead wrong if ya think that pimpin’ gon’ die
Twelve piece with a hundred hoes by my side
We hope this is self explanatory. When teams are hot you ride em til they show a weak pimp hand.
5 - Nebraska @ Kansas (minus 180) - The high spread scares us but Kansas is 7-0 against the spread. Kansas was damn close to a clean sweep but missed out on offensive third down conversions by 2 percentage points. Kansas rushes for almost 65 more yards a game, has a much better defense and wins the turnover ratio 11 to minus 9. They also have the fattest coach in the history of the NCAA. We pointed this out last week and there is no denying Mark Mangino.
That right there is the Kansas coach. Large and in charge and we are not going to tell him he won’t cover. He is so fat we put his pic in twice so you do not do a double take. Oh yeah, and you see that liquid that is covering him? That is from the cloud he just engulfed. As far as we are concerned, Coach Mangino has the largest pimp hand on the planet. In a pimp hand game, always take the guy with the biggest pimp hand. Ride this Kansas team until they blow it. Kansas wins and covers!!!
6 - Missouri (-4) @ Colorado - Yeah we know Missouri cut us last week but that was their only loss against the spread all season. Missouri did lose their starting Strong Safety last week but we do not think it will matter against Colorado’s young QB. We all saw what Missouri’s D did to Texas Tech. Kansas went on the road to Boulder and covered and now Missouri will do the same. If you are afraid to back Missouri here are some numbers for you… Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. AND JUST TO KICK THEM WHEN THEY ARE DOWN…Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games. Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Buffaloes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Buffaloes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Missouri has the Show Me State pimp hand rockin’ and they will show the Univeristy of Colorado what its all about as they show us the money. Missouri wins and covers!!!
The SEC Road Cover Game
On the road again
Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway
We’re the best of friends
Insisting that the world be turnin’ our way
And our way
Is on the road again
Just can’t wait to get on the road again
The life I love is makin’ music with my friends
And I can’t wait to get on the road again
We love betting the highest competitive SEC road game when we think two teams are competitive enough to play the game.
7 - Vanderbilt (plus 14.5) @ Florida - This game is absolutely terrifying. Florida got the snot kicked out of it last week against Georgia and Vandy beat a Miami-Ohio team in a very unconvincing manner. So why do we like this game. Georgia showed how to beat Florida. You can score on them, they turn the ball over and they do not have a RB that Urban Meyer trusts. Vanderbilt has the 14th rated defense in the league and Tebow is beat up. Look at some of the against the spread numbers (ATS)…Commodores are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Commodores are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Commodores are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Gators are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The numbers do not lie. Vandy plays teams tough and rises to the challenge and Florida plays down to its competition. Cringe, close your eyes and ride Vandy to the cover!!!
The Magic Carpet Ride Game
Well, you don’t know what we can find
Why don’t you come with me little girl
On a magic carpet ride
You don’t know what we can see
Why don’t you tell your dreams to me
Fantasy will set you free
Close your eyes girl
Look inside girl
Let the sound take you away
When you see a player mature and rise up to victory like Matt Ryan did against Virginia Tech last week you absolutely positively want to ride the momentum and this leads us to the next game…
8 - Florida State @ Boston College (-7) - We can not believe this spread is under 10 points and Boston College has been feasting on ACC foes all year. BC is 5-2 ATS this year and the two losses were against Notre Dame in the fix game (sorry, still sour over this one) and Army. They have easily covered against NC State and Georgia Tech and scrapped out the win versus the Hokies under brutal conditions. This is not a let down game Trust us!!! Seminoles are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November. Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Eagles are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Boston College wins and covers no problem!!!
The Ruler’s Back Game
Gather ’round party goers as if your still livin
And get on down to the old Slick rhythm
Now this one here is called the Ruler my dear
Its a mere party booster that will set things clear
Its a hundred percent proof from champions of truth
And if you feel you need spirit I’ll bring back your youth
Relax your mind, and folks unwind
And be kind to a rhythm that you hardly find
And off we go, let the trumpets blow
Well hold on, because the driver of the mission is a pro
The Ruler’s back
Just when everybody said it was impossible to go play Penn State during a white out at night and all the so-called experts were declaring Ohio State was prime for the pickings they laid a whooping on Joe Pa and the Fraidy Cat Lions. What a joke and that leads us to the same scenario this week.
9 - Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-15.5) - Wisconsin lost 38-7 at Penn State and Ohio State beats Penn State 37-17. Now we hear rumblings that PJ Hill is injured and might not play not that he would have mattered against Ohio State’s defense. Rumaging across the Internet we see that 56% of people are placing bets on Wisconsin, so that means the average Joe Blow thinks Wisconsin is getting too many points and now we have ATS numbers that tell us to run away too…Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Ohio State. Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings. All signs point to Wisconsin until you realize Ohio State has not played Wisconsin since 2004 meaning in the Barry Alvarez days. This is a different team and has shown that they will collapse against an aggressive defense. We could show you stats either way but if Ohio State can beat Penn State by 20 on the road they certainly can beat Wisconsin at home by 20 and we need less than that to cover. Buckeyes continue their onslaught on the Big Ten…win and cover!!!
And there you have it. 9 games to bet on. Take our picks or don’t…we do not care cause our money is on these games right now. We always play what we preach.
Please feel free to post comments, ask questions about games we did not pick or post your own picks to show us what you got.
‘Cause it makes me that much stronger
Makes me work a little bit harder
Makes me that much wiser
So thanks for making me a fighter
Made me learn a little bit faster
Made my skin a little bit thicker
It makes me that much smarter
So thanks for making me a fighter
Flash Flash and Runny
P.S. The Cal Golgen Bears were a clean sweep game this week but simply on principle of Jeff Tedford eating back to back turd sandwiches and wearing an XL butt plug we are stayaing as far away from the Washington St./Cal game as we can. Avoid that game at all costs. Still working on the Tedford turd sandwich. We will have our day!!!!
Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!
Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:
Saturday, September 29, 2007
1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) - Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.
2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) - I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!
3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) - Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.
4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) - The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!
5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) - Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.
6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) - This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.
7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) - Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.
8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) - We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.
Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!
Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:
Saturday, September 29, 2007
1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) - Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.
2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) - I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!
3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) - Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.
4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) - The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!
5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) - Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.
6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) - This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.
7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) - Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.
8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) - We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.
Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!
Flash Flash and Runny