Sunday, February 7, 2010

New Orleans Saints versus Indianapolis Colts (-4.5 and Over/Under 56.5) - This game is more than just who will win, who will cover and which way you bet on the Over/under. Every knucklehead on earth comes out with crazy stats and predictions. For example, and this was in the Wall Street Journal, when the over/under is less than the halftime band members’ average age, the NFC wins two thirds of the time. Advantage Saints. Then you get the prop bets. The following are actual possible bets for this Sunday’s game:

- What color will the gatorade be for the gatorade coaches dousing? Yellow is the favorite at less than even money with “clear” or water coming in second at 8/5. Orange is posted at 11/2, lime green at 6/1 and we round out the odds with blue and red at 25/2. You can even attempt to predict whether defensive or offensive players will do the pouring.

- Two sports figures that are sure to be there are Archie and Eli Manning. Oddsmakers have given the patriarchal Manning an over/under appearance number of 4 and Eli a total of 3. We heard Archie knows of this prop bet and may watch the game out of the spotlight. Take the UNDER!

- Kim Kardashian, who boasts Saints all-purpose back Reggie Bush as her beau, has been given an appearance total of 2.5. You can even wager on what color top Kim will be wearing at the big game. Black is the favorite at 5/6, white comes in at 53/20 and any other color is 6/5. If you want to get Kim’s sister involved, you can bet who will score more points this weekend, Reggie Bush or Lamar Odom.

- Will a member of The Who smash a guitar on stage during the halftime show? Books assume the band has mellowed in their later years with the answer of “YES” getting +155 odds.

So bet the Super Bowl, bet for fun and see if you can get lucky on any of these crazy prop bets. Why not? This is the last football game you can bet for months. We are really here to inspect this game in detail so you can be more informed. We have our bet in and we will give you our pick at the end of this article.

ATS NUMBERS

Indianapolis Colts

• Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Colts are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
• Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
• Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Colts are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.
• Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
• Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
• Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

- Nineteen of the games included franchises whose defenses were both in the top 10, most recently for Super Bowl XLII, the 2007 season.

- After the 2009 regular season, Indianapolis ranked 18th defensively and New Orleans was No. 25.

- Although the Saints’ defense ranked statistically in the league’s bottom quadrant, New Orleans had the NFL’s second-most takeaways (39). The Saints led the league in defensive touchdowns (eight) and were plus-11 in turnover/takeaway differential.

- the Saints surrendered 21.3 points per game IN THE REGULAR SEASON, and only 12 teams allowed more.

- New Orleans allowed an average touchdown drive of 6.5 plays, but was susceptible to the big play at times, permitting 13 touchdown drives of four plays or fewer and six TDs of 50 yards or more.

- Of the 34 Super Bowl games in which a team had an advantage in turnover/takeaway differential, the club that held the edge won 31 times.

- Tony Dungy, speaking to The New York Times in Miami, said the Saints won’t be able to do enough to force the Colts into needing a final, last-minute drive to win the Super Bowl. ”I think they’re going to be so far ahead that people are going to say, ‘Oh, ho-hum, he played a good game, they won by two scores, the Colts won their second championship,’ ” Dungy said of Manning on Thursday. “He’s going to have those rings Sunday night. I don’t think it’s going to be close.” Dungy, who led Indianapolis to a Super Bowl XLI victory in 2007, said the Saints’ difficulty in closing out the Vikings in the NFC title game was evidence the Colts will have a convincing upper hand come Sunday.

- Peyton Manning has the edge in his meetings with Saints D-Coordinator Gregg Williams, who has faced Manning seven times (losing five of those meetings) as a coach for four different teams. Williams was defensive coordinator of the Titans when Tennessee beat Manning and the Colts 19-16 in the 1999 divisional playoffs, Manning’s second season.

Week 1: 18 points

Week 2: 26 points

Week 3: 20 points

Week 4: 14 points

Week 5: BYE

Week 6: 21 points

Week 7: 12 points

Week 8: 8 points

Week 9: 10 points

Week 10: 5 points

Week 11: 31 points

Week 12: 21 points

Now check this out

Week 13: 3 points

Week 14: 3 points

Week 15: They lost by 7 points to Dallas

Week 16: They lost by 3 points to Tampa

Week 17: They lost by 13 points to Carolina

Playoff Game 1: 31 points. They seemed to be back on track against Arizona but then….

Playoff Game 2: 3 points

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Will the Colts be chasing the Jets? Read on to find out!

AFC Championship Game: NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-8) - First and foremost, this line is brutal. 7.5 - 8 points seems like the perfect line. We think the Colts will win but we love the value we can get with 8 points by taking the Jets and we do think the Jets have a chance to pull the major upset based on some of the finer points we list below. Betting is all about value so we really want you to understand this game before placing any bets. We are just going to throw out a bunch of points that we think matter.

- Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The two losses were the two they tanked to end the season.

- Bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

- Not sure the value in this stat but Peyton Manning is 7-5 lifetime against the Jets and has thrown 13 TDs with 13 INTs in the 12 games.

- In their first matchup, The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.

- In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

- The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

- In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in the playoffs this year.

- In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

- The Jets are 7-0 when Revis has a pick this year.

- The Jets defense was league best in the following categories this season: gave up 236 points, QBs completed 51.7% of their passes against the Jets, gave up 153.7 yards passing per game, game up 8 passing TDs all season and opposing QBs had a QB rating of 58.8 against the Jets. All we can say is WOW!

- The Colts offensive had the following highlights on the season: Threw the second most passes, had the most completions, threw for the second most passing yards with 282.2 yards per game, led the league in passing TDs, completed 66.9% of their passes and had a QB rating of 95.4.

- This line looks like a bit of a trap. The line opened at Colts -7.5 and is bouncing between -7.5 and -8. 61% of the money is on the Colts and we think with that type of action we would see this line trend upwards and it has not. Only 5Dimes has wild line swings right now and if you pick the right time you can get this line as low as -5.5 and as high as -9.5.

We love this line at Colts -8 for Jets bettors and would recommend taking the Colts at anything below 7 points. We typically try and bet underdogs to cover when we think they can win outright. We think the Jets have a slight chance of doing this, not as much as we usually like but we think 8 points provides too much value for a Championship game. With this being said, We are taking the Jets to cover!!! One last note to throw out there to make you more confident in our pick, the Colts are 0-5 straight up playing against the 3-4 Defense in their last 5 games. Take that to the bank!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

• Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
• Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
• Colts are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
• Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
• Colts are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Home team is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Over/Under

• Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Over is 5-1 in Jets last 6 games in January.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Over is 6-2-1 in Jets last 9 vs. AFC.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 8-3-1 in Jets last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games overall.
• Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 vs. AFC.
• Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 playoff games.
• Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
• Under is 7-3 in Colts last 10 games in January.

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - This might be a large mistake but we are not impressed with this Vikings team and we think they have some key injuries. Furthermore, the win against Dallas was not impressive at all. The Cowboys quit as soon as Suisham missed the 2nd FG (which was early). The Boys O is nowhere near as good as the Saints and the Boys were cutting them up until Romo became Romo and fumbled the ball 4 times in the 1st half. Brees will absolutely not make that mistake and he is locked in with 3 legit receivers and Shockey. The Vikes secondary is overrated and Winfield is 5′-10″. The Boys matched Roy Williams (6′4″) up against him and didn’t throw to him once. Brees will pick that match-up apart. Brees will 3 step drop and throw all game and the Vikes D line will get frustrated by not being able to get him. That was the formula the Panthers, Bears and Cards all used against the Vikes and it worked like a charm. The Boys are dumb because they watched no tape on it and Romo held the ball too long. Brees will eat that up. He is smart because he will take a 3 and out over forcing the ball any day of the week. Romo hasn’t figured that out yet. We think Reggie Bush will continue to be a force. Remember, Reggie is playing for a contract so it was not surprising to us to watch him run physically for the first time in his career. Coach Payton is not a moron like Jason Garrett and will definitely mix things up. The Super Dome will be insane and this stadium is special and getting more and more vibrant and relevant as a home field advantage as the playoffs move forward. The Vikes are clearly not as good on the road. Favre is due for a typical Favre 3 pick game. The Saints win over the Cards was way more impressive to me than the Vikes win over the Boys. The Saints dominated one of the best postseason QB’s in the league’s history and they made Fitzgerald a non-factor. I think the Saints will get up early and Favre will just start slinging the ball around. Peterson will be a non-factor and he hasn’t been good at all down the stretch. Plus, he fumbles like crazy. He had none against the Boys so we think he is due. So we bet you can sense where we are going with the smorgasbord of anti Vikings propaganda. If you thought this, you thought correct. We are betting the Saints to win and cover!

I am Super Bowl Bound Bitches!!!!

Minnesota Vikings

• Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Vikings are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
• Vikings are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Vikings are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Vikings are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

• Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Saints are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Saints are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Over/Under

• Under is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Vikings last 6 playoff games.
• Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 21-5 in Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games overall.
• Under is 7-2-1 in Vikings last 10 games in January.
• Under is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 vs. NFC.
• Over is 6-2-1 in Vikings last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Under is 36-15-1 in Vikings last 52 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 35-16-1 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Saints last 5 playoff games.
• Under is 7-0 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in January.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Saints last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 18-7-1 in Saints last 26 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on fieldturf.
• Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 13-6-1 in Saints last 20 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 48-23-2 in Saints last 73 vs. a team with a winning record.

Tom Brady 2010 = No trophy for you!!!

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Arizona at New Orleans (-7) - This is one of the toughest games to call this weekend. The Cardinals got smoked by Green Bay in week 17 then race out to a huge lead in the Wild Card rematch, blow the lead, miss a game winning FG and then win by freak play in overtime. The New Orleans Saints have lost 3 in a row. Some would argue that they had home field wrapped up and therefore let up but the problems started the first week of December. The Saints smoked the Pats to end November and then barely got by Atlanta and Washington. Then they lost to Dallas at home and followed it up by losing to Tampa at home and then Carolina on the road. So there are two things to think about: 1) Will the real Cardinals team please stand up and will they play for 4 quarters 2) Were the Saints tanking it and if so can they come out blazing? The brilliance of betting with a line spread is we do not care who wins. Can the Cardinals win? Sure they can. Can the Saints win by 3 TDs? Sure they can. Here is what we do know. The Cardinals can score on anybody at any time. The Packers had the second rated defense in the league and Warner had more TD passes than incompletions (5 to 4). Just sick numbers. Are you willing to be against him? The Saints have been out rushed in 5 of the last 6 games and the one game they were not out rushed they had 6 more rushing yards than their opponent. Not impressive. The Cardinals actually rushed for 150+ yards against the Packers and their coaching staff knows the value of rushing in the playoffs. They learned the Pittsburgh way… Rush and play defense. And on top of the Pittsburgh way, the Cards have Kurt Warner at QB and are deep in the offensive skill areas. It does not even matter if Boldin plays. We are not sure New Orleans can simply turn the juice back on, come out firing on offense, pressure on defense and impose their will. If we had to pick the team that can do this right now it is Arizona and with that….We are betting Arizona to cover!! The line looks legit. Saints opened at -7 and it has remained pretty flat. Right now 60% of the money is on the Cardinals and we are seeing some line drops out there.

Hey Mr. Brees....I have a ring biatch!!! What do you have?

Arizona

• Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.

• Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
• Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
• Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Head-to-Head

• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5) - This is the one game we have been hemming and hawing about. The Ravens looked straight nasty last weekend against the Pats. Yes their QB was 4-10 for less than 40 yards, 34 to be exact, with one INT but they did not need him to win and that is scary. Ray Rice is on a tear and is earning elite status and a top 5 pick in fantasy football next season. So we have a hot Ravens team and that brings us to the Colts. A lot of times people forget the “loser” label that Peyton Manning used to have before he won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl gave him the pass. Here are some Peyton facts. Peyton has not won, We repeat has not won a playoff game following a first round bye. Jim Caldwell has tried to mix things up this week practicing first team O versus first team D but is that really enough? time will tell. Also, since the Colts won the Super Bowl, they have won zero playoff games. So how does this positive, hot Ravens team mesh with the “losing” label of the Colts. We need to look at their historical head to head matchups. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards in five straight versus Indianapolis while getting held to 3.3 per carry. Rice has 26 attempts for 94 yards in two meetings. The Ravens have committed 25 turnovers during their seven-game skid in the series and they’ve never won in four trips to Indianapolis, falling 31-3 last season. Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception while Flacco was picked off three times. Flacco, 15 of 29 for 136 yards over the last two weeks, is bothered by a hip injury that had him limping in practice this week. So when we combine the specific Colts versus Ravens matchup we definitely have to lean one way. We do not think the Ravens are capable of repeating their efforts of last week and a rested Colts team will come out blazing. This line is holding pretty flat at Colts -7 to -6.5. 69% of the money is on the Colts, which might smell trap. Watch to see where the money and line go as we get closer to kickoff. We are betting the Colts to win and cover!

Ravens

• Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
• Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
• Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Colts are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Colts are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Colts are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
• Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

I am looking at you Ray Lewis!!!!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

We are going to kick Brett right where it hurts!!!

Dallas at Minnesota (-3) - This will probably be one of the most viewed NFL games ever. Favre in the playoffs versus the Cowboys. Ratings City!!! A lot is being made of the Cowboys right now shaking the December and playoff bug. What is not being mentioned is how good the Cowboys are right now on both side of the ball and in the trenches. Just to recap the Cowboys 4 game winning streak and ATS winning streak….

1/9/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards.

1/3/2010 - Cowboys beat Eagles 24-0 and out rush the Eagles by 142 yards (freaky coincidence - 142).

12/27/2010 - Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0 and out rush the Skins by 65 yards.

12/19/2010 - Cowboys win at New Orleans 24-17 and out rush the Saints by 80 yards.

Seeing a trend here? We are. Playoff football is won by rushing the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing awesome defense. The Cowboys are playing sick defense and doing it without blitzing. D Ware and A Spencer are locked and loaded and destroying O-linemen. The Cowboys are running at will and Romo is playing efficient, mistake free football. Winning playoff combinations. The Vikings have an equally impressive defense but Jared Allen has slowed the last month. Not saying he will not rise up for the Cowboys game but he has not continually dominated and improved game after game like the Cowboys men down the stretch. We also get nervous for Flozell Adams. He becomes “Mr. Jump offsides” when the crowd gets noisy. Also, the Viking’s O-line is not letting A-Pete run wild like he did in the beginning of the season. It has been a loooooong time sine #28 broke 100 yards rushing. This is largely a momentum play, but we are getting points. The head-to-head stats do not support our theory so buyer beware. This line looks pretty legit. The line opened at Vikes -3 and is bouncing back and forth to -2.5 with 55% of the money on the Cowboys. We are betting the Cowboys to cover!

I just fisted you twice Philly!!!! Take that!

Dallas

• Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in January.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.

I could not win in Green Bay, NY and I am not going to win in Minnesota. WHY ME? Why, Why, Why???

• Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
• Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Vikings are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
• Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
• Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Vikings are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Minnesota.

Time to retire again, or not, or retire, or not, or retire.

NY Jets at San Diego (-8) - The Jets run game and defense are hot right now. Sanchez played exactly as a rookie QB needs to play in the playoffs and that is playing efficiently and playing not to lose. He was perfect last week and we look for more of the same this week. There is some danger in this game if you are a Chargers fan. The Chargers were not able to run the ball well this season and certainly will not be able to run on the Jets. If the Chargers can not run then they will be pass happy and that puts them in the way of the Jets blitzes and the Jets MVP, Mr. Revis. On the flip side, the Chargers D gave up 4.45 yards per rush and the Jets O rushed for 4.53 yards per carry. Now we are not predicting a Jets victory because we do not have to. We are here to make winning bets and 8 points are too many points for this battle. This line opened at Chargers -9 and is now down to -8 or -7.5 depending on the sports book. We are seeing 63% of the money on the Jets so we know this is a true line. We are betting the Jets to cover in this game!!!

Coming at you V-Jax!!!

NY Jets

• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

The "Dirty" Gets a W!

San Diego

• Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
• Chargers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Chargers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Chargers are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - You have to love the Cinderella kid Jets. Rex Ryan is calling them a Super Bowl team and playing the disrespect game. The Jets don’t get none! This line opened at Bungles -4 and is now down to -2.5 and during this time period 63% of the money is on the Bungles. Trap City!!! Do not fall for it. Vegas is begging for you to take the Bungles. The Bungles were the feel good team but have not been the same since Chris Henry died and the Jets have the perfect defense to counteract the Bungles offense. All the Jets need to do is stop the run, easy for them, and keep the ball out of OchoStinko’s hands, easy for Revis to do. The only X factor is the emotional, hot headedness of Mark Dirty Sanchez. If he can keep himself under control, the Jets win this easy. If Dirty gets too fired up and ahead of himself then he can easily throw 4 picks and blow the game. We think the combo of the Vegas trap and the Jets kryptonite effects on the Bungles will make for a straight up win. With that, we are definitely taking the Jets to cover! The story line here is definitely Mark Sanchez.

NY Jets

• Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
• Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
• Jets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

• Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Bengals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bengals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Bengals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
• Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite.
• Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Too much is being put into the Cowboys streaks in December and their inability to win postseason games and Wade Phillips track record as a coach. Well as we have seen after a Saints win and back to back shutouts….streaks are made to be broken. The Cowboys are hot right now and the reason is good old fashioned logic, The Cowboys play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The o-line is holding up and the d-line is playing lights out. These two reasons make it easy to control the line of scrimmage, maximize play-action effectiveness and keep teams on their toes. Now the Eagles. They sucked last week. Showed they have no confidence in their running game and showed that Donovan is zeroed in on D-Jax. You take D-Jax out of the game, you take Donovan out of the game. We think the suckitude of Donovan McNabb is enough to warrant the Cowboys win at this point. Donovan might be playing his last game for the Birds and he knows it. The Philly fans are ready to throw him out of town after he threw his team under the bus again last week. He blamed their loss on the youth and inexperience of the team. How about you make an effing play now and again Donovan? How about you assuming the leadership position on the team? You would think it would be time for you to take responsibility and step up but noooooooo you just blame others and get spoon fed some Chunky soup from Mama McNabb. Try not to vomit on the star this weekend. Cowboys win and cover! The Eagles ATS record in these spots is terrifying. The story will be Donovan McNabb. Will he respond or will he choke?

Eagles

• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
• Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
• Eagles are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Eagles are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog.

• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC East.
• Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in January.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
• Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-3) - The story here is simple and is two fold. Will the Patriots respond without W SQUARED (aka Wes Welker) and will anybody ever beat Brady at home in the playoffs. The answers are: They will respond just fine and this Baltimore Ravens team can not win in Gillette Stadium. We initially wanted to go against the Pats in this one but knew better. Here is what everyone thinks and why the money is leaning to the Ravens. The Pats do not have W squared, do not have a dominating defense, will face a Ravens team that will try and run the ball 10,000 times and are an uninspiring 10-6. Easy to bet against them. We however, know better. Brady will refuse to lose. The Pats are running the ball a lot more effectively and have a stable of fresh RBs. Randy Moss will show up to play. The Pats defense is good enough to beat the Ravens at home. We are not concerned in this round of the playoffs. Pats win and cover! We love the head-to-head ATS numbers.

Ravens

• Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
• Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

• Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.
• Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Patriots are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
• Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• Patriots are 0-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in January.

Head-to-Head

• Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - The story here is simple. Slim Shady style….will the real Cardinals please stand up. Green Bay crushed the Cards last week. Yes we know the Cards pulled their starters and the loser known as Matt Leinart attempted to play QB in the NFL. However, if you look at who the Cards have played in their last ten games it is amazing they are not a higher seed. The Cards were 6-4 over their last ten games with losses to Green Bay, San Fran, Tennessee and Carolina (but Carolina back on 11/1/2009 when they still sucked). The wins were against the Rams twice, Detroit, Seattle, Bears and the one real win was against the Vikings. So are they this good or did they have the luxury of a joke of a schedule that they still did not perform well under. Also, the Cards were 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Green Bay is on an 8 game tear with a 7-1 record and the only loss coming by one point, with no time left on the clock to Pittsburgh. The O-line has come around and the defense is vicious with Charles Woodson having one of the best years of his already impressive career. Aaron Rodgers is playing sick on third downs and in the red zone. Favre who? We think the real Cards are the ones with an injured Boldin and Rogers-Cromartie and the same team that had one big win in their last ten games. This Cards team is not good enough to beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL. We think the Packers win and we are betting the cover!

Green Bay

• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
• Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
• Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Enjoy the picks!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

Underdog Strategy - Not much going on here last week. This strategy was 8-7-1 and now stands at 125-110-4 on the season. For not using your brain, this is a pretty decent strategy. Underdog is in bold:

Indy +8 at Buffalo

Saints +7 at Panthers

Jags +1.5 at Browns

Bears at Lions +3

Pats +7 at Texans

Steelers at Dolphins +3

Giants +9 at Vikes

49ers at Rams +8

Falcons at Bucs +1.5

Packers +3 at Cards

Chiefs +10 at Broncos

Ravens at Raiders +10.5

Skins +3 at Chargers

Titans at Seahawks +6

Eagles +3 at Cowboys

Bengals +9.5 at Jets

Knockout Pool Strategy - We were back on the winning side last week with the Cards with our second chance pick. Not sure how our league is going to handle the multiple teams that are still left but the Commish will hand out the verdict later in the week. We have our last regular season pick of the season.

Week 1: New Orleans Saints

Week 2: Washington Redskins

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Chicago Bears

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 7: New England Patriots

Week 8: San Diego Chargers

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: Indianapolis Colts

Week 14: Tennessee Titans

Week 15: Denver Broncos (losing pick)

Week 16: Arizona Cardinals

Week 17: NY J - E - T - S, Jets, Jets, Jets

LOCKS:

Knicks @ Pistons -4.5: Only one Lock tonight and this is it. The Pistons are finally getting their stars healthy, but they are in a terrible funk. It will take some time for them to get back to the standards they are used to. That said, we love them tonight. Consider that the home team in this match-up is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings. We love the healthy Pistons. Take the Pistons and give the points.

PICKS

Thunder @ Wizards +1: For the first time this season the Thunder have won 3 straight games. They go for their 4th tonight and we love their chances. They are hot right now and Kevin Durant is playing as well as anyone. Take the Thunder and give the point.

Cavs @ Hawks -2: We love that the Hawks are favored in this. We think they are a much better team. They play well together and they can run with anyone. They have too many weapons. Look for a terrible game from Shaq tonight. Take the Hawks and give the points.

Pacers @ Bulls -7: This line is pretty comical given how bad the Bulls are and their coaching woes. Still, they should rally around their coach and play with some intensity at home, but don’t be surprised if the pacers win outright. This is too many points to pass up. Take the Pacers and the points. 

Timberwolves @ Spurs -11: The T’Wolves are on a decent spell as of late while the Spurs have been consistently inconsistent. On paper the Spurs dominate this match-up, but the Spurs are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against the NBA Northwest and they are very bad as double digit favorites. Take the T’Wolves and the points.

Hornets @ Rockets -6: We are very curious as to how the Rockets are going to respond to the TMac drama. The Hornets are iffy at best, but we love the points. Plus, the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Houston. We like CP3 in this one. He will get them the cover. Take the Hornets and the points.

Warriors @ Lakers -11.5: The Lakers seem to be in one of their ruts, but they are at home facing a Warriors team that is still injured and just not as good. This is the perfect rebound game for the Lakers. Even without Artest, the Lakers should dominate this game. Take the Lakers and give the points.

Seven more games. Good luck.

Flash and Runny

LOCKS

Thunder @ Nets +6: The Nets are making a habit of getting blown out this year. Of their 28 losses, only 9 have been by fewer than 10 points. They are a joke of a team right now. The Thunder will win their third straight. Take the Thunder and give the points.

PICKS

Bucks @ Bobcats -4.5: Bobcats are a completely different team at home (24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games) and they love Monday night games (9-2 ATS in their last 11). However, we still aren’t buying that they are a good team. Brandon Jennings has come down to reality as of late, but we like them to cover. They match-up well with the Bobcats. Take the Bucks and the points.

Wizards @ Grizzlies -5.5: We love the Wizards’ D in this game. We think they match-up well against the Grizzlies. Don’t be surprised in Washington wins outright. Take the Wizards and the points.

Lakers @ Suns +1: The Lakers have dominated this match-up as of late and look to build some momentum after their overtime win against the Kings. The Lakers are exactly what the Suns hate-a large and athletic team that plays well together. That is the recipe for beating the Suns. The Suns are off one of their worse performances of the season last time out. Even without Artest, the Lakers will still get the best of them. Take the Lakers and give the point.

Nuggets @ Kings +2: The Nuggets have been terrible since Chauncey Billups injured his groin. However, the Kings will probably be without Tyreke Evans and Sean May tonight. Those are bigger losses. Take the Nuggets and give the points.

76ers @ Trail Blazers -6: The 76ers have dominated this match-up as of late and they should get Iverson back tonight. The Blazers have been hot-covering in their last 4 games. We don’t think it will be 5 straight tonight. Take the 76ers and the points.

Celtics @ Warriors +6: The Celtics are one of the best road teams in the league, but they have not done well when visiting the Warriors. Still, they play outstanding D. The Warriors are hot off their pounding of a Suns team that played no D whatsoever. Tonight will be different. They will get all the D they can handle tonight. Take the Celtics and give the points.

Road team sweep for us tonight. That hasn’t happened before, but we are sticking with our system.

Good Luck,

Runny & Flash

1) RPJ special sauce - These are our magic special sauce picks. Our secret bread and butter. The way we pick these are proprietary and we do not share how we pick them. You won’t give a damn anyways because our bowl picks have been terrible. Your best bet is to pick against us. These picks are now 2-4 on the season.

2) Statistical picks - We base these picks purely on math. When one team is statistically better in every single category we track, we pick that team to win the game. So far this type of pick is 0-1 on the season with Nevada blow it for us.

3) The Defense running pick - This is when we pick the underdog to cover when that underdog gives up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and the favorite does not. These picks win outright 70% of the time on a historical basis. On the season these picks are 1-1, with Central Florida losing and UNC covering.

We will probably come at you with some detailed analysis on some of the bigger games but for now we will show you our picks and the lines we took them. On with the Picks…..

Monday December 28, 2009

Independence Bowl: Texas A&M versus Georgia (-7) - RPJ Pick takes Texas A&M to cover! (loss 3-8)

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Eagle Bank Bowl: UCLA (-3.5) versus Temple - RPJ Pick takes UCLA to win and cover (Win 4-8)

Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin versus Miami (-3.5) - Defense Run pick selects Wisconsin to cover! (Win 5-8)

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green (-1) versus Idaho - RPJ pick takes Bowling Green to win and cover! (Loss 5-9)

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska versus Arizona (-1) - Defense Run pick selects Nebraska to cover! (Win 6-9)

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force versus Houston (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes Houston to win and cover! (Loss 6-10)

Sun Bowl: Stanford versus Oklahoma (-10) - RPJ pick takes Stanford to cover! (Win 7-10)

Texas Bowl: Navy versus Missouri (-6.5) - RPJ pick takes Missouri to win and cover! (Loss 7-11)

Insight Bowl: Iowa State versus Minnesota (-2.5) - RPJ pick takes Iowa State to cover! (Win 8-11)

Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Tennessee versus Virginia Tech (-5) - RPJ pick takes Va. Tech to win and cover! (Win 9-11)

Friday January 1, 2010

Outback Bowl: Northwestern versus Auburn (-7) - RPJ pick takes Northwestern to cover! (Win 10-11)

Gator Bowl: Florida State versus West Virginia (-2.5) - RPJ takes WVU to win and cover! (Loss 10-12)

Capital One Bowl: LSU versus Penn State (+2) - Stat pick takes Penn St. to win and cover! (Win 11-12)

Rose Bowl: Oregon (-4) versus Ohio State - Defense run pick takes Ohio St. to cover! (Win 12-12)

Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati versus Florida (-12.5) - Stat pick takes Florida to win and cover! (Win 13-12)

Saturday, January 2, 2010

International Bowl: Northern Illinois versus South Florida (-7) - RPJ pick takes N. Illinois to cover! (Loss 13-13)

Papa Johns Bowl: UCONN versus South Carolina (-4.5) - RPJ pick takes UCONN to cover! (14-13)

Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss (-3) versus Oklahoma State - Defense Run pick takes Ok. St. to cover! (loss 14-14)

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-7.5) versus East Carolina - RPJ pick takes Arkansas to win and cover! (Loss 14-15)

Alamo Bowl: Michigan State versus Texas Tech (-8) - RPJ takes Texas Tech to win and cover! (Win 15-15)

Monday January 4, 2010

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State versus TCU (-7) - Stat pick takes TCU to win and cover!

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl: Iowa versus Georgia Tech (-3.5) - RPJ takes Georgia Tech to win and cover!

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

GMAC Bowl: Troy versus Central Michigan (-3.5) - Stat pick takes C. Michigan to win and cover!

Thursday, January 7, 2010

BCS National Championship Game: Texas versus Alabama (-4) - RPJ takes Texas to cover!

Music City Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats versus Clemson Tigers (-7) - Only five teams in the SEC will be making at least their fourth straight trip to a bowl game this season, and Kentucky is one of them. The other four are Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU. It was another solid season for Rich Brooks & Co., but could have been a whole lot better if Kentucky could have punched the ball in for a touchdown at the end of regulation against Tennessee. The Wildcats couldn’t and were beaten in overtime by the Vols — again. Kentucky has lost 25 consecutive games to Tennessee, the longest active losing streak in the country involving teams that play every year. Kentucky is looking to win its fourth bowl game in a row, which is something that has never happened. Clemson on the other hand is looking to avoid its 4th straight bowl loss. Clemson (8-5) reached the ACC championship game against then-No. 10 Georgia Tech on Dec. 5, with the school’s first league title since 1991 and a spot in the Orange Bowl at stake. Despite 233 yards rushing and four touchdowns from Spiller, the Tigers lost 39-34. The player in this game that will draw the most attention is the versatile Spiller, who finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting and is the first Tiger to win ACC player of the year honors since Michael Dean Perry in 1987. He ranks fourth nationally in all-purpose yards with 194.0 per game and is the only player in the country to score a touchdown in every game this year, finishing with a school-record 20. Even the best defenses had trouble containing Spiller and Kentucky struggled against the run all season, giving up 183.1 yards per game to rank 100th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. Kentucky’s defense will also be without its best player. Linebacker Sam Maxwell, who had 80 tackles and tied for second in the SEC with six interceptions, is out following shoulder surgery. We think Spiller will go out in a blaze of glory. We are betting Clemson to win and cover!!!

Kentucky

• Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
• Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

• Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Tigers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
• Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
• Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC.
• Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
• Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
• Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games as a favorite.
• Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (-3) versus Marshall Thundering Herd - This is hands down one of the worst named bowls of all time. This is the tale of two ATS teams right now. Ohio is on a bit of a hot streak, covering in 4 straight games. Marshall has lost three in a row against the spread and has lost 3 out of 4 games straight up. Marhsall’s skid prompted their coach to high tale it out of town and in steps new coach, Doc Holliday. We love the name Doc Holliday but we do not see Marshall showing up to play an inspired ball game. Ohio has really played well down the stretch. They won at Ball State and Buffalo and then beat Northern Illinois and Temple at home. They did lose by 10 to Central Michigan and Dan LeFevour their last time out but they pulled the cover and Dan LeFevour is the man so that was fine with us. We are going to ride the hot team. We are betting on Ohio to win and cover!

Ohio Bobcats

• Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
• Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

• Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bobcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
• Bobcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Marshall Thundering Herd

• Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
• Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
• Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
• Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
• Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels versus Pittsburgh Panthers (-3) - This pains us to write but this is another one of the games where we bet the underdog to cover because they give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense. We already blew it once with Central Florida and Rutgers but we are going back to the well. We wanted to take Rutgers but the strategy told us otherwise. Same situation here. We would normally take UNC in this case but the under 100 yard strategy not only wins but it literally picks outright winners. 70% of the teams win outright so getting points is like a sundae with extra fudge and whipped cream. Our gut says go UNC but you know the drill. On one note, Pitt is terrible against the ACC and terrible in bowl games. Check out the numbers below. We are taking UNC to cover!

North Carolina

• Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
• Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
• Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Pittsburgh

• Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.
• Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.

Emerald “Deez Nuts” Bowl: Boston College Eagles versus USC Trojans - Oh how the mighty have fallen. USC’s season was more than a disappointment. The team literally imploded. The offense did not improve at all during the whole season and the defense looked like a pop warner team against the likes of Oregon and Stanford. Throw in horrific choking losses to Washington and Arizona and you have your 8-4 USC Trojans. USC was also 3-9 ATS on the season. Now we look at USC’s problems. The coaching staff is a shell of itself following the championship teams of yesteryear. Pete Carroll is micro managing. He let Norm Chow go because of ego and the team has not been the same since. Now there are more quality control issues. Joe McKnight is driving around in Range Rovers. Players are showing up academically ineligible for bowl games. We see distractions, distractions and more distractions. Distractions and an under performing team lead to bowl losses. Is Boston College good? Not really. They play well on defense and have a mediocre offense. Sounds a lot like USC but BC gets 9 points. It is almost sacrilege to bet against USC in a bowl game, but we have to do it. We are betting that BC covers!!!

Boston College

• Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
• Eagles are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Eagles are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

USC

• Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
• Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games as a favorite.
• Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Trojans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Trojans are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.
• Trojans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Trojans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Trojans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
• Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.